Anglo-Dutch multinational food and consumer goods producer
owns more than 400 brands, including Ben & Jerry's ice cream, Domestos bleach, Flora margarine, Lynx deodorant, PG Tips tea and Signal toothpaste.
2010 ESP +32%
dividend raised by 6.7%.
Strong indicator that global consumers, whilst still smarting from the lingering effects of the recession, are bouncing back.
Strong Brands That People Buy Regularly
A nice business to be in is one where you sell a relatively low-cost product which people buy again and again because it fulfils a need, rather than a want. Whilst Unilever's markets are highly competitive thanks to the likes of Kraft, Nestlé, Proctor and Gamble, Reckitt-Benckiser (LSE: RB) and numerous smaller manufacturers, Unilever's strong brands create lots of consumer loyalty, thus deterring brand-switching and so protecting those all-important repeat purchases.
Most households in the developed world regularly use at least one Unilever product, have used them for many years, and will continue to do so. Unilever's brands are split into three groups; food, personal care and home care (cleaning and washing) with roughly 73% of Unilever's turnover coming from its top 25 brands.
Developing countries are becoming increasingly important to Unilever, with sales growth for the last quarter in Africa, Asia and Latin America all significantly outpacing that seen in Europe and North America. There is plenty of scope for further growth from these regions, particularly in the fast-growing markets of Brazil, China and India where consumers are increasingly adopting parts of the Western lifestyle.
Relatively Secure Sales
The contrast in the recent performance of a company like Unilever and, say, a car manufacturer, is particularly stark. It's relatively easy for a consumer to defer buying a new car for a year during hard times, which is why car makers' sales fell off the proverbial cliff during the last eighteen months. In contrast people don't stop buying food and shampoo, so there was no need for a "cash for cleaners" subsidy by governments to get people to buy Dove soap or Persil washing powder!
Another nice thing about companies like Unilever is that, notwithstanding small changes to their existing brands and the introduction of some new products, they don't need to cope with the highly disruptive technological changes which affect many firms, particularly those in the computing and information technology industries.
After all, there's only so much you can do to deodorant, ice cream, soap and tea, so most of the innovation seen in these markets occurs in advertising, marketing and packaging.
Looking Back To 2009
In my last article about Unilever, written in June 2009, my main concern was not about the global recession. This is because it is perfectly normal for a consumer goods company' profits to fall during a recession as the standard practice is to cut prices to maintain market share.
Unilever was no exception as earnings per share for 2009 fell by 32% whilst its sales fell by a mere 1.7%.
Instead my focus was upon Unilever's pension scheme deficit. There was some good news in the 2009 annual report which showed that the scheme deficit had fallen from €3,382 million at the end of 2008 to €2,582 million by 2009.
However, the quarterly results showed that the deficit had increased slightly to €2.7 billion, largely because of the effect of falling interest rates (lower interest rates means higher scheme liabilities). Good but not great.
Unilever's results for the last five years are summarised in the table below:
Year
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
Total Sales (millions)
€39,823 €40,523 €40,187 €39,642 €38,401
Diluted earnings per share
€1.17 €1.73 €1.31 €1.60 €1.25
Dividend per share
64.41p 60.74p 51.11p 47.66p 45.13p
2010 First Quarter -- Bouncing Back
It's no surprise that Unilever's share price has increased by more than a third since June, while the global economy has been emerging from the recession, from 1,450p to 1,980p.
Using an exchange rate of €1.16 per £1, the shares are on a fairly high historic P/E ratio of 19.6 but if the eps growth from the first quarter is repeated for the rest of the year, the prospective P/E ratio drops to about 15. That's not particularly expensive for a company of this quality which has increased its dividend by around 42% during the last five years.
Unilever's shares have had a good run over the past year and, whilst the global recovery is mostly priced into the shares and the pension scheme niggles remain, the shares are well worth holding onto.
2010年4月30日 星期五
《財經天下－陶冬》中國房價怎麼跌？
兩會之後，中國政府密集地出台了一系列針對房地產市場的政策，頻率之高、範圍之廣，均是在共和國歷史上所罕見的。房地產市場一時間風聲鶴唳，成交應聲下挫，頗有山雨欲來風滿樓的感覺。
房地產市場不懂政治心。總理在「兩會」上高調闡述必須穩定房價，並將其上升到政黨存亡的高度。話音未落，地價瘋漲，房地瘋漲，迫使北京出手穩定樓價。其實目前北京出招花樣繁多，但是力度並不大。目前已出政策重點放在兩個方面：切斷投機炒作的貸款供應和打擊開發商囤地。儘管這些措施對部分當事人有重大影響，對房市的整體大局其實心理衝擊大過實際打擊。筆者看來，北京目前的政策，警示作用大過實際打擊，意在為房價降溫而沒有發出類似物業稅這樣更具實質殺傷力的狠招。
＊開發商有條件「吊高來賣」＊
房地產新政推出後，交易數量下挫，部分城市房價下跌。目前資金處於離場觀望狀態，但是資金本身並沒有在跌市中被摧毀。而且隨著一個負利率時代的來臨，銀行的儲蓄搬家估計會愈演愈烈。在央行全面大規模回收過剩流動性之前，房市的潛在購買力應該會維持在強勁的水平。 一手市場房源不足，是當前房市另一個突出的特點。其實在宏觀調控和全球金融危機的夾擊下，多數開發商在２００８年陷入流動性危機，幾乎沒有甚麼新動工項目。至２００９年上半年，開發商紛紛趁市旺而出貨套現。建設不足加上出貨過快，導致去年下半年開始新盤供應嚴重不足，導致一手市場善價而沽，帶起了房價的一輪「乾升」。
現在筆者估計新房源的庫存僅相當於一個半月的銷售數量，這與２００８年１０月時相當於２３個月的銷售量，形成鮮明對照，也是近來房價飈升的一個基本面原因。開發商敢於「捂盤」的另一個原因，是「不差錢」。在一輪超預期的高價勁銷後，開發商的現金量處於近五年來的最高水平，令他們有條件「吊高來賣」。
＊下半年後房市估計出現變局＊
筆者認為在短期內，房價會在高位振盪，突然大跌的可能性不大。房價在政策打壓與供應短缺之間拉鋸，中央政府與地方政府之間博奕，資金在恐懼與貪婪之間徘徊。 然而進入下半年後，房地產市場估計會出現變局。開發商在去年６－９月份集中拿地，估計至今年下半年新盤便會成批湧現。由於調控政策緊鑼密鼓般地推出，開發商也會抱著「入袋為安」的心態，盡量套現。筆者相信下半年新盤推出的時間可能早過預期，數量可能大過預期。房市供需的天平開始失衡，房市因此進入調整期。
房價高企，令工薪階層離買房的夢想漸行漸遠，也就抑制了剛性需求。目前房市購買力中，有七成以上為投資性需求。投資與投機未必可以劃等號，不過這類需求受市場氣氛、政策變化的影響更大，多是買漲不買跌的。
進入加息周期，是房市利空的另一個原因。受食品價格與租金、工資上升的影響，筆者認為通貨膨脹未必如人們預測的那樣在年中見頂。負利率情況加速銀行儲蓄外流，成為流動性氾濫的一大源頭。當央行意識到通脹一時難以回落時，估計密集加息期隨即出現。筆者相信明年底之前人民幣利率至少上升２００基點，甚至３００基點，而此勢必對房市構成壓力。
＊房價平均跌幅料１５－２０％＊
筆者認為中國房地產在下半年某一時點開始回調，不過房價也許跌不深，平均下降１５％－２０％左右。中國的買房人槓桿不高，絕對不是美國的零首付情況。開發商剛剛套現了大筆回款，資金鏈上「不差錢」，所以一時也不會恐慌性拋盤。而政府從本意上並不打算將房市擊倒，畢竟房地產是目前拉動經濟的第一大引擎，北京打壓的是房價上升的速度，而非上升的方向。
美歐報章上最近出現了許多關於中國房地產即將破滅的言論，筆者認同中國房市有泡沫的講法，不過泡沫未必馬上破滅，也未必一次過地破滅。海外人士引用「夜晚住宅樓裏沒有幾盞燈」來證明投機性質和泡沫。的確許多住宅目前是被空置的，不過必須區分「建好但是賣不出去」與「建好、賣出但是沒有出租」兩種情況，前者的壓力集中在開發商身上，而開發商多為高槓桿運作。
一旦資金鏈吃緊，開發商隨時可能「跳樓甩賣」。後者的關鍵是業主的資金壓力。如果業主沒有資金、利率成本壓力，空置本身不足以說明房價必然大跌。 有一種觀點認為一線城市房價有泡沫，但是三線城市沒有泡沫。的確三線城市的房價不算太高，但是那裏的工資也低許多。目前炒三線城市的有許多是外地資金，而全國房價均屬流動性驅動的。一旦流動性被收緊，筆者難以想像一線城市的房價跌而三線城市房價升。也許下一個周期中三線城市孕育著更多的機會，不過在目前下行周期，筆者認為三線房價也會跌，只是跌得相對少一點。
隨著城鎮化建設和城市軌道交通的興起，筆者認為副都心概念會成為市場的新焦點，那裏孕育著新的增長點和商機。不過那是下一個房地產市場周期的故事。
其實，即將開始的房地產下行周期，是２００８年市場調整的繼續。全球金融危機打亂了政府在房地產政策上的部署，大量的流動性擴張為房市製造出新的高潮。流動性退出，相信需要時間，相應的樓市的調整也許也會分階段展開。目前最大的風險，是政策失誤（既可能是出手過慢也可能是出招過重）所帶來的經濟風險。《陶冬》
巨騰國際（3336) - PC機殼界手執牛耳
全球2010 第一季個人電腦付運量接近八千萬台，比去年同期勁升24.2%，
環顧行業聯想（00992）累積升幅驚人, 高估值已經將唔少利好因素反映。在產業供應鏈上，從事電腦及手提電腦機殼的巨騰國際（03336），值得留意。
巨騰在PC機殼界手執牛耳，市場佔有率由一成五去到三成 (2005 -2010)
Reason
金融海嘯使中小型廠商
近年鎂金屬製機殼及鋁質一體式機殼廣泛普及，傳統注塑製作機殼被取替，而金屬機殼生產線資本投入巨大，形成高行業入門屏障，
兩年之間銷售額由52億元增至75億元，盈利從4.1億元躍升到7.04億元。
今、明兩年PC付運量預測都有雙位數升幅，巨騰也準備投資第八間廠房，令年產能提升至7,200萬部，將市佔率上限推到四成，事實在高端手提電腦機殼競爭對手幾乎無出其右，毛利與盈利都有改善空間。
《品中資－李飛揚》子憑母貴，揀中銀香港
子憑母貴，揀中銀香港
中央政府雷厲風行，打擊樓市炒風，間接的受害者其實就是內銀股，因為中央是要靠銀行收緊信貸去打擊炒風的。除非你是長綫投資者，否則，今年內銀股都不是首選的投資對象。但如果閣下特別鍾情銀行股，我反而有一個推介，那就是紅籌股身份的中銀香港（０２３８８，下稱中銀）。
相信大家都不會對中銀陌生，以銀行股來說，她在普羅股民心目中，地位應該僅次於滙控（００００５）吧！我認為，如果計今明兩年，論投資價值，她應該比滙豐高得多。
為甚麼我會看好中銀香港呢？事緣近期我處理一些內地投資移民的個案，跟一些專職的移民顧問公司接觸，才知道很多內地人來港投資移民，不少都是選擇中銀作為金融中介機構，處理他們的６５０萬投資（根據「資本投資者入境計劃」，俗稱投資移民，移民者需要投資６５０萬元於香港的房地產，股票或其他認可的金融資產）。不要忘記，如果他們能夠拿出６５０萬元投資移民，實際身家肯定一、二千萬或以上，這些客戶的理財需要，相信不用我多說了。
「本集團繼續與中國銀行緊密合作，提供跨境財富管理業務。為抓住內地客戶的增長潛力，本集團透過中國銀行的『中銀理財全球服務』及『資本投資者入境計劃』，提供多元化度身訂造的服務。」以上是中銀今年第一季度業績報告中的一段業務回顧節錄。這正正顯示，中銀確實已經抓著這個難得的機遇，積極拓展這班「貴賓」的理財業務了。
＊加強與母公司合作創雙贏＊
「年內，我們繼續深化與母行中國銀行的業務合作，並取得堅實成果，顯示了我們共同努力的力量。透過亞太銀團貸款中心，我們得以擴展區內業務及增加相關收入，而中國銀行集團在２００９年亞太銀團貸款業務亦提昇至第一名。我們還繼續加強於２００９年４月開展的全球關係管理試點計劃，配合我們主要企業客戶於全球發展的需要，提供一站式的服務。我們將繼續利用核心業務優勢，與中國銀行建立更緊密的合作，一同捕捉中國及亞太地區的新興商機，以實現共贏。」以上是中銀香港主席肖鋼在２００９年年報中的一段話。 我想指出的是，在母公司的配合下，中銀香港這幾年將會享有很大優勢，這是其他外資銀行，以至中資的兄弟行也難望其項背的。
＊還不止呢！＊
「２００９年７月人民幣貿易結算試點計劃出台，標誌著離岸人民幣業務發展的重要里程碑。配合有關計劃，我們為企業客戶提供廣泛的人民幣結算及貿易融資服務。隨著人民幣在全球經濟中日益重要，我們相信在跨境貿易中，以人民幣作為結算貨幣的需求亦將日益增加。新推出的人民幣貿易服務將擴大我們離岸人民幣業務範圍，不單覆蓋香港，亦伸延至亞太地區。我們將進一步加強與東盟和其他有關的國家商業銀行的合作，以促進我們的清算業務和其他銀行業務。」
＊１８﹒５元可買入望升兩成＊
我相信，從以上幾項滙報中大家已經可以瞭解到，中銀香港的級數跟其他在香港經營業務的外資、華資，甚麼中資銀行，都是不可同日而語的。 中銀早前公布的２００９年業績，盈利大幅增長了３倍，達到１３７億港元（下同）但主要因為２００８年的基數太低，只賺３３億元，所以顯得特別亮麗。其實，這個數字（以更專業的每股盈利計）大約只等於２００５年所賺的錢。而２００６及２００７年這兩年，中銀的業務增長顯著放慢，到２００８年更加受到金融海嘯的衝擊而急速滑落。
我認為，中銀已經找到她的增長點，就是緊密地與母公司中國銀行合作，在亞太地區發展離岸人民幣業務，以及貿易融資業務。而在香港，她又有投資移民這度「幌子」，６５０萬以外，還可以有其他的配套服務呢！ 因此，未來兩年，中銀的盈利有很大機會突破２００７年的１５４億元高位（每股盈利１﹒４６元），現價（昨日收報１８﹒８４元）計的２０１０年市帳率大約１﹒８倍，市盈率１２倍左右，我認為相當吸引。以一個月低位１８﹒５元為入市位，持有至今年年底，回報應該逾兩成。《經濟通通訊社資深分析員 李飛揚》
中央政府雷厲風行，打擊樓市炒風，間接的受害者其實就是內銀股，因為中央是要靠銀行收緊信貸去打擊炒風的。除非你是長綫投資者，否則，今年內銀股都不是首選的投資對象。但如果閣下特別鍾情銀行股，我反而有一個推介，那就是紅籌股身份的中銀香港（０２３８８，下稱中銀）。
相信大家都不會對中銀陌生，以銀行股來說，她在普羅股民心目中，地位應該僅次於滙控（００００５）吧！我認為，如果計今明兩年，論投資價值，她應該比滙豐高得多。
為甚麼我會看好中銀香港呢？事緣近期我處理一些內地投資移民的個案，跟一些專職的移民顧問公司接觸，才知道很多內地人來港投資移民，不少都是選擇中銀作為金融中介機構，處理他們的６５０萬投資（根據「資本投資者入境計劃」，俗稱投資移民，移民者需要投資６５０萬元於香港的房地產，股票或其他認可的金融資產）。不要忘記，如果他們能夠拿出６５０萬元投資移民，實際身家肯定一、二千萬或以上，這些客戶的理財需要，相信不用我多說了。
「本集團繼續與中國銀行緊密合作，提供跨境財富管理業務。為抓住內地客戶的增長潛力，本集團透過中國銀行的『中銀理財全球服務』及『資本投資者入境計劃』，提供多元化度身訂造的服務。」以上是中銀今年第一季度業績報告中的一段業務回顧節錄。這正正顯示，中銀確實已經抓著這個難得的機遇，積極拓展這班「貴賓」的理財業務了。
＊加強與母公司合作創雙贏＊
「年內，我們繼續深化與母行中國銀行的業務合作，並取得堅實成果，顯示了我們共同努力的力量。透過亞太銀團貸款中心，我們得以擴展區內業務及增加相關收入，而中國銀行集團在２００９年亞太銀團貸款業務亦提昇至第一名。我們還繼續加強於２００９年４月開展的全球關係管理試點計劃，配合我們主要企業客戶於全球發展的需要，提供一站式的服務。我們將繼續利用核心業務優勢，與中國銀行建立更緊密的合作，一同捕捉中國及亞太地區的新興商機，以實現共贏。」以上是中銀香港主席肖鋼在２００９年年報中的一段話。 我想指出的是，在母公司的配合下，中銀香港這幾年將會享有很大優勢，這是其他外資銀行，以至中資的兄弟行也難望其項背的。
＊還不止呢！＊
「２００９年７月人民幣貿易結算試點計劃出台，標誌著離岸人民幣業務發展的重要里程碑。配合有關計劃，我們為企業客戶提供廣泛的人民幣結算及貿易融資服務。隨著人民幣在全球經濟中日益重要，我們相信在跨境貿易中，以人民幣作為結算貨幣的需求亦將日益增加。新推出的人民幣貿易服務將擴大我們離岸人民幣業務範圍，不單覆蓋香港，亦伸延至亞太地區。我們將進一步加強與東盟和其他有關的國家商業銀行的合作，以促進我們的清算業務和其他銀行業務。」
＊１８﹒５元可買入望升兩成＊
我相信，從以上幾項滙報中大家已經可以瞭解到，中銀香港的級數跟其他在香港經營業務的外資、華資，甚麼中資銀行，都是不可同日而語的。 中銀早前公布的２００９年業績，盈利大幅增長了３倍，達到１３７億港元（下同）但主要因為２００８年的基數太低，只賺３３億元，所以顯得特別亮麗。其實，這個數字（以更專業的每股盈利計）大約只等於２００５年所賺的錢。而２００６及２００７年這兩年，中銀的業務增長顯著放慢，到２００８年更加受到金融海嘯的衝擊而急速滑落。
我認為，中銀已經找到她的增長點，就是緊密地與母公司中國銀行合作，在亞太地區發展離岸人民幣業務，以及貿易融資業務。而在香港，她又有投資移民這度「幌子」，６５０萬以外，還可以有其他的配套服務呢！ 因此，未來兩年，中銀的盈利有很大機會突破２００７年的１５４億元高位（每股盈利１﹒４６元），現價（昨日收報１８﹒８４元）計的２０１０年市帳率大約１﹒８倍，市盈率１２倍左右，我認為相當吸引。以一個月低位１８﹒５元為入市位，持有至今年年底，回報應該逾兩成。《經濟通通訊社資深分析員 李飛揚》
2010年4月29日 星期四
Who Will Benefit From Mobile Banking?
Mobile banking is set to grow exponentially and there will be a number of companies that benefit from this. Most notable among them may be those companies facilitating this trend; those making the 'picks and shovels' that enable 'm-banking'.
According to research by Berg Insight, the worldwide number of users of mobile banking and related services is forecast to grow from 55 million users in 2009 to 894 million users in 2015.
While we may quibble over the exact figures, it is clear that in our increasingly pressurised lives the convenience of mobile banking will lead to its increasing use by a time poor populace.
Here are the sectors that I think may well benefit from this trend, with players named where I feel confident that have a realistic chance of coming out on top.
Banks
Of course, banks should benefit from both lower costs and (even more) opportunities to cross sell their products. It's hard to see one particular bank being much more successful than the others though.
Mobile operators
As we spend more time online, mobile telecom operators such as Vodafone (LSE: VOD) should obviously reap some benefits. Indeed, unlike Internet banking, where the carrier is merely a conduit, using smartphones will enable them to provide authentication. This essentially means carriers should get a slice of the mobile banking pie. How big? I'm not sure.
On the down side, there are a host of competitors in this space and the pace of development is such that you'd need to have a crystal ball to be sure of picking a long term winner. Yet, in the short term, Vodafone is well placed to benefit in the UK.
Mobile internet device manufacturers
Smartphones and other mobile internet devices are already starting to integrate banking services with mobile apps. At the moment Apple with its iPhone and Google with Nexus One Android seem to be getting most of the press. As with banks, it's pretty difficult to pick a winner here.
Software vendors
Companies providing software that ensures secure and customer-friendly online banking stand to benefit from the growth in m-banking as banks and building societies develop their offerings. However, the difficulty, as ever, is in finding companies that stand a realistic chance of benefitting in the long term.
I'm particularly wary of companies that are only now jumping into this space, with no track record of providing front end banking software.
However, a couple of AIM-quoted companies do stand out. They are relatively risky plays so anyone thinking of investing should conduct plenty more research and only invest what they can afford to lose.
Payments
In the area of mobile payments, Monitise (LSE: MONI) is an interesting play. It enables customers to bank and make payment transactions directly from their mobile handset.
It already has around two million customers and Visa owns 13.6% of the company. The share price has already risen six-fold in the past year, valuing the company at just over £100m, despite the fact that it has still to make a profit
It has an enviable list of clients, which include: HSBC (LSE: HSBA), First Direct, Alliance & Leicester, Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS), Natwest and Ulster Bank.
Account management
Another AIM-listed company that is set to benefit from mobile banking is Intelligent Environments (LSE: IEN). Its mobile banking software platform, based on its successful web-based banking software, has already been sold to one retail bank and is due to be launched as an iPhone app in May by the same (unnamed) bank in conjunction with a 'major retailer'.
Intelligent Environments claims the functionality of its iPhone app is richer than any competitor, due to its ability to interrogate a bank's back office systems. Hence, it can provide an identical level of functionality to that offered by a bank's own web site. This will allow bank customers to securely access their accounts to view statements, interrogate transactions, make payments and take advantage of special marketing offers.
It's early days, but the company has a track record of providing software to facilitate online banking and is already profitable. It's currently valued at £16m.
According to research by Berg Insight, the worldwide number of users of mobile banking and related services is forecast to grow from 55 million users in 2009 to 894 million users in 2015.
While we may quibble over the exact figures, it is clear that in our increasingly pressurised lives the convenience of mobile banking will lead to its increasing use by a time poor populace.
Here are the sectors that I think may well benefit from this trend, with players named where I feel confident that have a realistic chance of coming out on top.
Banks
Of course, banks should benefit from both lower costs and (even more) opportunities to cross sell their products. It's hard to see one particular bank being much more successful than the others though.
Mobile operators
As we spend more time online, mobile telecom operators such as Vodafone (LSE: VOD) should obviously reap some benefits. Indeed, unlike Internet banking, where the carrier is merely a conduit, using smartphones will enable them to provide authentication. This essentially means carriers should get a slice of the mobile banking pie. How big? I'm not sure.
On the down side, there are a host of competitors in this space and the pace of development is such that you'd need to have a crystal ball to be sure of picking a long term winner. Yet, in the short term, Vodafone is well placed to benefit in the UK.
Mobile internet device manufacturers
Smartphones and other mobile internet devices are already starting to integrate banking services with mobile apps. At the moment Apple with its iPhone and Google with Nexus One Android seem to be getting most of the press. As with banks, it's pretty difficult to pick a winner here.
Software vendors
Companies providing software that ensures secure and customer-friendly online banking stand to benefit from the growth in m-banking as banks and building societies develop their offerings. However, the difficulty, as ever, is in finding companies that stand a realistic chance of benefitting in the long term.
I'm particularly wary of companies that are only now jumping into this space, with no track record of providing front end banking software.
However, a couple of AIM-quoted companies do stand out. They are relatively risky plays so anyone thinking of investing should conduct plenty more research and only invest what they can afford to lose.
Payments
In the area of mobile payments, Monitise (LSE: MONI) is an interesting play. It enables customers to bank and make payment transactions directly from their mobile handset.
It already has around two million customers and Visa owns 13.6% of the company. The share price has already risen six-fold in the past year, valuing the company at just over £100m, despite the fact that it has still to make a profit
It has an enviable list of clients, which include: HSBC (LSE: HSBA), First Direct, Alliance & Leicester, Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS), Natwest and Ulster Bank.
Account management
Another AIM-listed company that is set to benefit from mobile banking is Intelligent Environments (LSE: IEN). Its mobile banking software platform, based on its successful web-based banking software, has already been sold to one retail bank and is due to be launched as an iPhone app in May by the same (unnamed) bank in conjunction with a 'major retailer'.
Intelligent Environments claims the functionality of its iPhone app is richer than any competitor, due to its ability to interrogate a bank's back office systems. Hence, it can provide an identical level of functionality to that offered by a bank's own web site. This will allow bank customers to securely access their accounts to view statements, interrogate transactions, make payments and take advantage of special marketing offers.
It's early days, but the company has a track record of providing software to facilitate online banking and is already profitable. It's currently valued at £16m.
2010年4月28日 星期三
首域：人口增長利農產品基金
【明報專訊】包括軟商品在內的CRB指數價格已回升至差不多海嘯前水平，由於市場預期通脹將至，食品價格有望進一步攀升，再者全球氣候變化，農地供應減少，加上人口增長迅速，食物需求上升，漸出現供不應求情况，因此看好農業股長遠增長。
首域高級投資組合經理Renzo Casarotto表示：「軟性商品需求不斷上升，特別是人口增長持續，發展中國家的財富急速上升，對蛋白質食品需要亦趨增，但水及土地供應有限情况下，商品市場會有不少投資機遇。」首域新推出全球農業基金，選股策略集中在經營中上游的農產品企業，其中包括種籽、肥料、農作物保護、設備服務、農業運作、技術及水工業等行業。
全球人口到2050年增四成
根據聯合國人口小組預期，全球人口於2009至2050年期間增加近四成，每年人口約增加7500萬人，全球人口於2050年將突破90億人，糧食消耗理應同步上升。加上近年城市化迅速，農產品耕地持續減少，可耕種的農地是40年前的一半，情况將利好農產品價格。基金採用下而上的策略挑選股份，並選出增長前景、財政狀况及盈利持久力較強的股份。過去5年，農業股的回報，都較代表農產品期貨價格的商品大王農產品指數為高。
近期，市場擔心通脹重臨，Renzo Casarotto表示中上游農企有能力將價格轉給客戶，亦是他看好選股策略以中上游為主的原因。全球農業基金沒有地域限制，容許投資於不同地域及農作物類別，有助減低因氣候導致部分地區農作物失收的風險，Renzo Casarotto選股時也是看企業的農田分佈，即使因天氣變化，令旗下土地不再適合種植，若地區較為分散，亦可以將企業風險分散。
農產品價格回升 器械肥料股受惠
在金融海嘯時影響農產品價格急跌，使得農夫減少耕種，農夫收入減少又會降低對於農業機具的需求，耕種面積減少則減少肥料的使用量，因此機具與肥料產業獲利也遭受衝擊，觀察今年不論成熟國家或新興市場的機具銷售量，都有止跌的趨勢。
以2006年與2007年的經驗，農產品原材料（如玉米、大豆等）價格上漲，也帶動相關農業類股的表現，隨着景氣回暖，農糧類股中肥料、機器類股也可望受惠。
基金主要投資在從事軟商品（包括粗糧、大豆、糖及咖啡等）生產、加工、運輸、貿易及推廣的企業，以及供應產品服務，包括種籽、肥料及農業設備等企業。其中將有75％參照DAX全球農業指數，以及25％參考標普的全球林木及森林指數，從當中約400隻，市值億美元以上的企業中，選取20至75隻，最少50％收入來自農業或林業活動的股票，市值要3億美元的企業也能入選組合中。該基金以美元計價，首次認購期由即日起至5月14日，認購價每股10美元，最低投資1500美元，認購費為5％，每年管理費1.5％。基金主要投資在美國、歐洲及加拿大，分別佔38.5%、13.3%及17.2%。行業分佈上，主要集中於供應鏈、種子及林業，分別為15.4%、13.2%及15%。
撰文：龍彩霞
Polo Resources Merge with Caledon Coal, Good Deal?
Polo Resources
coal and uranium investment vehicle
- Polo’s NAV, using Polo’s cash and liquid holdings excluding Caledon, their NAV at current stands at approximately £154m which gives a share price of approx 6.6p
risk involved in their GCM holding which makes up near £36m of their NAV.
- Polo currently has approximately £18m in cash which equates to 0.8p for every Polo share
- planned merger with Australian focused coal producer Caledon Resources. offered 11.4 Polo shares per Caledon share puts the takeover value for Caledon at a price of 61p/£128m.
- Polo in the process of selling their Extract stake, even only got the current worth of their Extract holding of £100m (which is unlikely as with the rights issue price last year having been at $7.75 – 50c above the current share price - it is very unlikely that Dattel’s would sell for below this), this would equate to adding another 4.35p to Polo’s cash worth giving them a total cash worth of 5.15p or 58.71p.
Main issues that Polo has had over the last year or so that has led to continued large discount to NAV is that investors felt there was a lot of uncertainty. For example, the questions that remain were who exactly are Polo, are they an investment company?
What is Dattel’s plans for the company?
What are they going to do with the Extract stake?
Are they still interested in purchasing GCM?
What are the director’s plans for finally bringing value to shareholders via the share price? What are Dattel’s plans for Caledon?
When will Polo start earning some actual cash flow?
And trust me when I say it, there are many more questions that investors asked.
Good for shareholders is now some of these questions are being answered,
first there was news that Polo plan to sell their Extract stake,
plans to list on the TSX, both moves that appeared to be aimed at trying to close the gap between the share price and NAV.
Real motive behind these moves has come to light, and that is the planned merger with Caledon (which answers the question of plans for Caledon).
how the purchase of Caledon is good for Polo’s shareholders?
Well it is simple, it answers the remaining main questions I mentioned above that was holding Polo back, and that is what are Dattel’s plans for the company?
When will they start earning some cash flow?
And how will the management bring value to shareholders?
This move answers all these questions, though has it been done at a good price?
To answer this we need to look at how this move will affect Polo,
to start how much will it cost Polo?
the rate is 2.4bn new polo shares, though as Polo already own 26.1% of Caledon it is actually 1.8bn shares. Thus as Polo already has 2.3bn shares in circulation it means that they valuing the Caledon purchase at 75% of their worth.
Depend on peoples opinion of the coal price, also the management team be able to fully utilise Caledon’s coal assets, which it has to be said have exceptional potential, the current management have not been able to realise this potential.
Caledon’s main assets – 1) Cook mine
measured resource of 86.1mt’s with a total prospective resource total of 406mt.
troubled history since it came into production with the mine continually missing production forecasts, and due to the low coal price, is loss making.
2010 production target of 700,000 tonnes coal, if the plans are a success and the coal price holds steady (or even risers further) then the mine should be profitable again.
2) Minyango is Caledon’s potential coal deposit 倉庫 and has a measured resource of 51.6mt with a total prospective resource of 341.6mt.
potential to be a company maker as current estimates show that the deposit not only has the potential to yield 4.5mtpa, potential to be of an exceptional coal make up and quality, and thus to be a low cost mine, to quote from their website:
‘Coal quality analysis indicates a potential product mix ranging from a low sulphur coking and thermal split to 100% semi-soft coking coal or an unwashed coking coal.’
deposit has the potential to produce excellent quality coal for energy production.
Some notes for investors about the deal
Caledon has £18m in loan note payments coming up this year and Polo has agreed to lend Caledon the money to pay for these. What this means it that when the deal goes through the new company will have near zero loan notes (thus near no debt), but will also have £18m less cash.
As Polo is listed in the UK on Aim, Canada on the TSX and Germany on the Frankfurt exchange, and Caledon is listed in the UK on Aim and Australia on the ASX, it means that combined the new company will be listed on four exchanges.
Though this deal does not really change much about who Caledon are, it makes a big change to Polo, who will no longer predominantly be an investment vehicle, thus the risks to investing in Polo will change substantially.
Annoyingly for Polo investors this deal leads to more questions, for example what are their plans for the GCM stake and the Peabody JV? Also why did they list on the TSX? being listed on a total of four exchanges will not be cheap, so surely it has more of a purpose than just to try to boost Polo’s share price short term?
Enormous amount of shares in circulation for a company of Polo’s size, thus if they do not conduct a share consolidation it could quite easily hold back the new groups share price.
Conclusion
Of course some could argue that Caledon are getting the better deal, as they are basically getting a potential £120m rights issue (more than their value) at a premium to the current share price (which is something that I suspect many can attest very rarely happens), as well as a stake in GCM and even the Peabody JV, and their company substantially de-risked via securing its financial security, all for what has to be said a very good price. But then again some could argue that it is Polo getting the better deal as they could argue that Caledon do not need that much money right now, and in the future if the coal price continues to rise and everything went to plan, then their share price would be higher thus if they did need money in the future it would mean less dilution.
But truth be told both arguments fall a little flat when the benefits to both sets of shareholders of the deal are taken into account. Thus in conclusion this takeover does seem a good fit, as Polo has the money and the excellent management team, whilst Caledon has the assets that need the money for their value to be unlocked. Thus it seems that this takeover truly does have the potential to be of benefit to both Polo and Caledon shareholders if it goes through and for this reason Polo still warrant a place in the value section of ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’. Just a note, if the takeover/merger does go through (there is no guarantee of this yet), the chances are Polo will be removed from the value section of ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’ and placed in the growth or company changing news section as they will emerge a completely different company after the merger.
coal and uranium investment vehicle
- Polo’s NAV, using Polo’s cash and liquid holdings excluding Caledon, their NAV at current stands at approximately £154m which gives a share price of approx 6.6p
risk involved in their GCM holding which makes up near £36m of their NAV.
- Polo currently has approximately £18m in cash which equates to 0.8p for every Polo share
- planned merger with Australian focused coal producer Caledon Resources. offered 11.4 Polo shares per Caledon share puts the takeover value for Caledon at a price of 61p/£128m.
- Polo in the process of selling their Extract stake, even only got the current worth of their Extract holding of £100m (which is unlikely as with the rights issue price last year having been at $7.75 – 50c above the current share price - it is very unlikely that Dattel’s would sell for below this), this would equate to adding another 4.35p to Polo’s cash worth giving them a total cash worth of 5.15p or 58.71p.
Main issues that Polo has had over the last year or so that has led to continued large discount to NAV is that investors felt there was a lot of uncertainty. For example, the questions that remain were who exactly are Polo, are they an investment company?
What is Dattel’s plans for the company?
What are they going to do with the Extract stake?
Are they still interested in purchasing GCM?
What are the director’s plans for finally bringing value to shareholders via the share price? What are Dattel’s plans for Caledon?
When will Polo start earning some actual cash flow?
And trust me when I say it, there are many more questions that investors asked.
Good for shareholders is now some of these questions are being answered,
first there was news that Polo plan to sell their Extract stake,
plans to list on the TSX, both moves that appeared to be aimed at trying to close the gap between the share price and NAV.
Real motive behind these moves has come to light, and that is the planned merger with Caledon (which answers the question of plans for Caledon).
how the purchase of Caledon is good for Polo’s shareholders?
Well it is simple, it answers the remaining main questions I mentioned above that was holding Polo back, and that is what are Dattel’s plans for the company?
When will they start earning some cash flow?
And how will the management bring value to shareholders?
This move answers all these questions, though has it been done at a good price?
To answer this we need to look at how this move will affect Polo,
to start how much will it cost Polo?
the rate is 2.4bn new polo shares, though as Polo already own 26.1% of Caledon it is actually 1.8bn shares. Thus as Polo already has 2.3bn shares in circulation it means that they valuing the Caledon purchase at 75% of their worth.
Depend on peoples opinion of the coal price, also the management team be able to fully utilise Caledon’s coal assets, which it has to be said have exceptional potential, the current management have not been able to realise this potential.
Caledon’s main assets – 1) Cook mine
measured resource of 86.1mt’s with a total prospective resource total of 406mt.
troubled history since it came into production with the mine continually missing production forecasts, and due to the low coal price, is loss making.
2010 production target of 700,000 tonnes coal, if the plans are a success and the coal price holds steady (or even risers further) then the mine should be profitable again.
2) Minyango is Caledon’s potential coal deposit 倉庫 and has a measured resource of 51.6mt with a total prospective resource of 341.6mt.
potential to be a company maker as current estimates show that the deposit not only has the potential to yield 4.5mtpa, potential to be of an exceptional coal make up and quality, and thus to be a low cost mine, to quote from their website:
‘Coal quality analysis indicates a potential product mix ranging from a low sulphur coking and thermal split to 100% semi-soft coking coal or an unwashed coking coal.’
deposit has the potential to produce excellent quality coal for energy production.
Some notes for investors about the deal
Caledon has £18m in loan note payments coming up this year and Polo has agreed to lend Caledon the money to pay for these. What this means it that when the deal goes through the new company will have near zero loan notes (thus near no debt), but will also have £18m less cash.
As Polo is listed in the UK on Aim, Canada on the TSX and Germany on the Frankfurt exchange, and Caledon is listed in the UK on Aim and Australia on the ASX, it means that combined the new company will be listed on four exchanges.
Though this deal does not really change much about who Caledon are, it makes a big change to Polo, who will no longer predominantly be an investment vehicle, thus the risks to investing in Polo will change substantially.
Annoyingly for Polo investors this deal leads to more questions, for example what are their plans for the GCM stake and the Peabody JV? Also why did they list on the TSX? being listed on a total of four exchanges will not be cheap, so surely it has more of a purpose than just to try to boost Polo’s share price short term?
Enormous amount of shares in circulation for a company of Polo’s size, thus if they do not conduct a share consolidation it could quite easily hold back the new groups share price.
Conclusion
Of course some could argue that Caledon are getting the better deal, as they are basically getting a potential £120m rights issue (more than their value) at a premium to the current share price (which is something that I suspect many can attest very rarely happens), as well as a stake in GCM and even the Peabody JV, and their company substantially de-risked via securing its financial security, all for what has to be said a very good price. But then again some could argue that it is Polo getting the better deal as they could argue that Caledon do not need that much money right now, and in the future if the coal price continues to rise and everything went to plan, then their share price would be higher thus if they did need money in the future it would mean less dilution.
But truth be told both arguments fall a little flat when the benefits to both sets of shareholders of the deal are taken into account. Thus in conclusion this takeover does seem a good fit, as Polo has the money and the excellent management team, whilst Caledon has the assets that need the money for their value to be unlocked. Thus it seems that this takeover truly does have the potential to be of benefit to both Polo and Caledon shareholders if it goes through and for this reason Polo still warrant a place in the value section of ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’. Just a note, if the takeover/merger does go through (there is no guarantee of this yet), the chances are Polo will be removed from the value section of ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’ and placed in the growth or company changing news section as they will emerge a completely different company after the merger.
2010年4月27日 星期二
中國森林
集團乃中國三大私營自然再生林及人工森林營運商
於四川及雲南
集團擁有１７﹒２萬公頃森林的林權。
自然再生林 – 4.05萬公頃
人工林 – 13.1萬公頃
業務運作集中於上游木材業務，涵蓋了從樹木種植、森林管理、林地經營和森林資源的採伐到將集團的原木銷售給第三方的整個木材供應鏈。
２００９年１２月發售新股上市，估計集資淨額１４﹒１億港元
90% of Wood Age between 18-60, suitable to cut (average 33% in China)
Wood Producing Rate 200sqm/ ha, (average 71 sqm/ha in China)
客戶中國的各木材加工廠,用於生產木板和其他木製品，其產品用於製造傢具、地板、建房和基礎建設，其中一些產品銷往國外。
第一季屬銷量淡季，受春節等季節性因素影響，採伐量減少。預期今年硬木及軟木的銷量比例與去年相若，整體平均售價將有約５０％增長
公司今年２月份與雲南麗江寧蒗縣政府簽訂林地轉讓(４﹒６４億元人民幣)，收購面積５３﹐３３３公頃 (８０萬畝) 主要種植雲南松、冷杉、雲杉及高山松等軟木樹木 (不超過每畝６００人民幣/畝)，
Wood price +1 = Profit +1.5%
Sale Vol +1% = Profit +1.2%
資本開支約１０﹒８億元 for this year。
公司會加強與林業相關的下游企業進行業務上的合作，但未有考慮收購相關企業。
集團冀於未來三年採伐量可按年上升３０％，預期銷量將按比例增長。
預計其２０１０年、２０１１年銷售額將分別上升３７％、３１％，分別高於該行此前的預期７個和１５個百分點。
Positive
Marco
中國對木材的需求正加速增長，重點木材於２００９至２０１５年的需求年複合增長率將達１０％。
中國政府有意加速推動行業改革及發展，令具相當規模的林業企業可進一步受惠。
近期內地林業企業來港上市集資，將可喚起投資者對行業的關注及了解。
Mirco
1)開展有關可持續森林管理、樹苗改良、培育、生長監控及造林運作等的研發工作，計劃與於２０１０年下半年用1500萬元人民幣成立研發中心 & 樹苗中心；
2) 公司會於今年第三季度前完成上市前承諾，收購１８０萬畝林地,, 現時尚有１００萬畝收購目標尚待完成。每畝收購價不多於６００元
3) Simple Business Model – Direct sales to the customer, only work when received the customer order, low stock storage level, and customer need to pay in full before get the wood. don’t even need to pay transport fee
4) the 採伐率 is currently only 1.8% overall, this should raised in the future.
約１３﹒５億港元（佔９５﹒７％）將用作收購在未來３年識別的新森林資源，餘下資金物色其他收購項目；
Risk
Sustain low price to obtain forest?
Relative new business, massive expansion, can sustain?
於四川及雲南
集團擁有１７﹒２萬公頃森林的林權。
自然再生林 – 4.05萬公頃
人工林 – 13.1萬公頃
業務運作集中於上游木材業務，涵蓋了從樹木種植、森林管理、林地經營和森林資源的採伐到將集團的原木銷售給第三方的整個木材供應鏈。
２００９年１２月發售新股上市，估計集資淨額１４﹒１億港元
90% of Wood Age between 18-60, suitable to cut (average 33% in China)
Wood Producing Rate 200sqm/ ha, (average 71 sqm/ha in China)
客戶中國的各木材加工廠,用於生產木板和其他木製品，其產品用於製造傢具、地板、建房和基礎建設，其中一些產品銷往國外。
第一季屬銷量淡季，受春節等季節性因素影響，採伐量減少。預期今年硬木及軟木的銷量比例與去年相若，整體平均售價將有約５０％增長
公司今年２月份與雲南麗江寧蒗縣政府簽訂林地轉讓(４﹒６４億元人民幣)，收購面積５３﹐３３３公頃 (８０萬畝) 主要種植雲南松、冷杉、雲杉及高山松等軟木樹木 (不超過每畝６００人民幣/畝)，
Wood price +1 = Profit +1.5%
Sale Vol +1% = Profit +1.2%
資本開支約１０﹒８億元 for this year。
公司會加強與林業相關的下游企業進行業務上的合作，但未有考慮收購相關企業。
集團冀於未來三年採伐量可按年上升３０％，預期銷量將按比例增長。
預計其２０１０年、２０１１年銷售額將分別上升３７％、３１％，分別高於該行此前的預期７個和１５個百分點。
Positive
Marco
中國對木材的需求正加速增長，重點木材於２００９至２０１５年的需求年複合增長率將達１０％。
中國政府有意加速推動行業改革及發展，令具相當規模的林業企業可進一步受惠。
近期內地林業企業來港上市集資，將可喚起投資者對行業的關注及了解。
Mirco
1)開展有關可持續森林管理、樹苗改良、培育、生長監控及造林運作等的研發工作，計劃與於２０１０年下半年用1500萬元人民幣成立研發中心 & 樹苗中心；
2) 公司會於今年第三季度前完成上市前承諾，收購１８０萬畝林地,, 現時尚有１００萬畝收購目標尚待完成。每畝收購價不多於６００元
3) Simple Business Model – Direct sales to the customer, only work when received the customer order, low stock storage level, and customer need to pay in full before get the wood. don’t even need to pay transport fee
4) the 採伐率 is currently only 1.8% overall, this should raised in the future.
約１３﹒５億港元（佔９５﹒７％）將用作收購在未來３年識別的新森林資源，餘下資金物色其他收購項目；
Risk
Sustain low price to obtain forest?
Relative new business, massive expansion, can sustain?
The next BRICs.
Goldman have been looking into this, and in typical style have christened them the 'Next Eleven', or 'N-11'. And they are:
Bangladesh: Ranking lowest of the bunch in terms of schooling, telephone and internet access, and GDP per capita, Bangladesh supposedly stands to benefit from a large base of low-cost labour, a large domestic market of 156m people, and a market of nearly 3bn people in the Asian region to which it has access. There are also continuing remittances from overseas Bangladeshis;
Egypt: Moving slowly towards a free and open market, and is investing in infrastructure, as well as benefiting from the Suez Canal and from energy generation on the Nile;
Indonesia: another hugely populous (240m) country, and produces oil and other natural resources. Government finances have been brought under control, and the country managed to rack up a very respectable 4.5% growth during the global recession in 2009;
Iran: An interesting choice and is the world's fourth largest oil producer;
Mexico: As a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's economy is closely linked to that of the United States; while it has had a rough recession, government reforms and investment in infrastructure continue;
Nigeria: Another populous and oil exporting country, Nigeria is the only African country on the list, which must have raised a few eyebrows in South Africa;
Pakistan: The country has shifted from an agricultural to a services-based economy;
Philippines: The country weathered the global recession better than its regional peers, and has a growing business process outsourcing industry;
South Korea: Already a developed economy, South Korea continues to grow, thanks to giant corporations such as Samsung and Hyundai;
Turkey: Although membership of the European Union appears to be a more distant prospect, the country is still a strategically located and relatively developed. It should also benefit as a transport route for oil; and
Vietnam: Mark Mobius reported last week that he regards Vietnam as one of the world's cheapest stock markets, and is finding lots of bargains during his visit there.
Risks
For any of these countries, I can think of a list of risks as long as my arm. While some of these look worthy of a particularly long barge-pole, it's worth remembering that you can generally make more money from an investment that goes from being 'dreadful' to just 'bad', than you can from one that goes from being 'bad' to 'good', but it's a very high-risk strategy.
Remember also that being in the next bunch of contenders for economic influence in the world does not necessarily make them good places to invest.
How to invest
If you do decide to go that route, the options for investment in the Next Eleven are fairly limited at the moment. Emerging market unit trust/OEICs, investment trusts and exchange traded funds are almost invariably weighted towards the BRIC economies.
iShares offer a couple of country-specific ETFs in this area that are traded on the London market: iShares MSCI Korea (LSE: IKOR) and iShares MSCI Turkey (LSE: ITKY).
If you have access to the American markets, you can add ETFs such as Market Vectors Egypt, Market Vectors Indonesia, iShares MSCI Mexico Investable, and Market Vectors Vietnam.
Bangladesh: Ranking lowest of the bunch in terms of schooling, telephone and internet access, and GDP per capita, Bangladesh supposedly stands to benefit from a large base of low-cost labour, a large domestic market of 156m people, and a market of nearly 3bn people in the Asian region to which it has access. There are also continuing remittances from overseas Bangladeshis;
Egypt: Moving slowly towards a free and open market, and is investing in infrastructure, as well as benefiting from the Suez Canal and from energy generation on the Nile;
Indonesia: another hugely populous (240m) country, and produces oil and other natural resources. Government finances have been brought under control, and the country managed to rack up a very respectable 4.5% growth during the global recession in 2009;
Iran: An interesting choice and is the world's fourth largest oil producer;
Mexico: As a member of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mexico's economy is closely linked to that of the United States; while it has had a rough recession, government reforms and investment in infrastructure continue;
Nigeria: Another populous and oil exporting country, Nigeria is the only African country on the list, which must have raised a few eyebrows in South Africa;
Pakistan: The country has shifted from an agricultural to a services-based economy;
Philippines: The country weathered the global recession better than its regional peers, and has a growing business process outsourcing industry;
South Korea: Already a developed economy, South Korea continues to grow, thanks to giant corporations such as Samsung and Hyundai;
Turkey: Although membership of the European Union appears to be a more distant prospect, the country is still a strategically located and relatively developed. It should also benefit as a transport route for oil; and
Vietnam: Mark Mobius reported last week that he regards Vietnam as one of the world's cheapest stock markets, and is finding lots of bargains during his visit there.
Risks
For any of these countries, I can think of a list of risks as long as my arm. While some of these look worthy of a particularly long barge-pole, it's worth remembering that you can generally make more money from an investment that goes from being 'dreadful' to just 'bad', than you can from one that goes from being 'bad' to 'good', but it's a very high-risk strategy.
Remember also that being in the next bunch of contenders for economic influence in the world does not necessarily make them good places to invest.
How to invest
If you do decide to go that route, the options for investment in the Next Eleven are fairly limited at the moment. Emerging market unit trust/OEICs, investment trusts and exchange traded funds are almost invariably weighted towards the BRIC economies.
iShares offer a couple of country-specific ETFs in this area that are traded on the London market: iShares MSCI Korea (LSE: IKOR) and iShares MSCI Turkey (LSE: ITKY).
If you have access to the American markets, you can add ETFs such as Market Vectors Egypt, Market Vectors Indonesia, iShares MSCI Mexico Investable, and Market Vectors Vietnam.
招金礦業（1818）
起家于山東的招金礦業，
把山東、新疆、甘肅和遼寧作為資源擴張的重點區域，并側重以“重點項目”的方式進行擴張。
April 2010 美資大型基金富達投資卻連番出手增持69.4萬股及551.6萬股，平均每股作價分別為1.99美元及2.01美元（折合15.45及15.58港元），持股量由4.9%或2144萬股，增至最新6.32%或2765萬股，短短兩個交易日淨增持1.42%或621萬股，共涉資逾4500萬元。
值得注意的，是富達於3月中時曾以平均每股1.98美元（折合15.33港元）減持招金78.8萬股，並使持股量跌低於5%申報觸發點之下，以更高作價掉頭增持，而且在兩個交易日內兩度大手增持，可說非常罕見。
招金2009年年度 - 增長約30%至28億，股東應佔溢利更上升41.2%至7.5億元，表現優於市場預期。主要由於實現金價較預期為高，生產成本則較預期為少，
比較其他金礦股，招金業務較純正，黃金業務佔整體業務95%，盈利表現對金價升降最為敏感，加上生產成本結構持續優於同業，以及財政狀况穩健，已預留資金進行新收購等，
麥格理2010年的每股盈利預測顯著上調17%，目標價原來16.5港元調高至18.4港元。
雖然金融海嘯已成過去，但環球經濟前景仍極不明朗，希臘債務危機會否擴散，中短期相信仍會困擾市場，黃金作為避險投資工具，相信將繼續保持相對較佳表現，加上地緣政治持續不穩，各國央行不斷增持黃金，均會利好金價前景，今年內仍然易升難跌。
招金市帳率為4.2倍，與紫金礦業（2899）的4.4倍相若，但以預期市盈率比較，兩者分別為19.4倍及14.8倍，年初迄今招金股價回落3%，較同期下跌16%的紫金為佳，今年金價表現的投資者，不妨考慮追隨富達在15元附近入市增持招金，上望18元。
招金料金價雙位數升幅，每升1%提高收益2%
2010/03/29
招金礦業預期，黃金價格今年將有雙位數字的升幅，因市場對未來通脹預期，貨幣的購買力，及地綠政治等因素。路東表示，倘若金價上升1%，預期招金礦業今年的每股收益將上升約2%，並預期集團毛利率將平穩，及潛在有改善空間，並指集團毛利率較同業有優勢。
2010 -01
招金礦業將參與遼寧鳳城市黃金企業白云金礦的改制，并組建新公司，招金持股不少于51%。
早在1989年，鳳城市便被列為全國黃金生產重點產地之一，此后連續20年，其黃金產量居遼寧省產金之首，近年來，黃金產量位于全國第七。
“這是一個很好的項目”，鳳城市的項目也遭到多方爭奪。
框架協議簽定后，招金礦業將立即進行盡職調查，
為了獲取白云金礦超過51%的股權，招金將投資1.5億至2億元，使白云金礦的日生產規模由400噸提高到1000-2000噸。
招金還獲得了當地的探礦權，將進行前期找礦和勘查。
近年來，隨著黃金價格的上漲，黃金礦產儲備成為各方爭奪的焦點。而國內主要黃金生產商，也大舉進行了一系列讓人眼花繚亂的資源收購。
招金礦業已經把資源擴張作為“重點工程”
工信部曾提出，要推動國內黃金產業的整合，把資源向幾個國內大型黃金礦業企業傾斜。
把山東、新疆、甘肅和遼寧作為資源擴張的重點區域，并側重以“重點項目”的方式進行擴張。
April 2010 美資大型基金富達投資卻連番出手增持69.4萬股及551.6萬股，平均每股作價分別為1.99美元及2.01美元（折合15.45及15.58港元），持股量由4.9%或2144萬股，增至最新6.32%或2765萬股，短短兩個交易日淨增持1.42%或621萬股，共涉資逾4500萬元。
值得注意的，是富達於3月中時曾以平均每股1.98美元（折合15.33港元）減持招金78.8萬股，並使持股量跌低於5%申報觸發點之下，以更高作價掉頭增持，而且在兩個交易日內兩度大手增持，可說非常罕見。
招金2009年年度 - 增長約30%至28億，股東應佔溢利更上升41.2%至7.5億元，表現優於市場預期。主要由於實現金價較預期為高，生產成本則較預期為少，
比較其他金礦股，招金業務較純正，黃金業務佔整體業務95%，盈利表現對金價升降最為敏感，加上生產成本結構持續優於同業，以及財政狀况穩健，已預留資金進行新收購等，
麥格理2010年的每股盈利預測顯著上調17%，目標價原來16.5港元調高至18.4港元。
雖然金融海嘯已成過去，但環球經濟前景仍極不明朗，希臘債務危機會否擴散，中短期相信仍會困擾市場，黃金作為避險投資工具，相信將繼續保持相對較佳表現，加上地緣政治持續不穩，各國央行不斷增持黃金，均會利好金價前景，今年內仍然易升難跌。
招金市帳率為4.2倍，與紫金礦業（2899）的4.4倍相若，但以預期市盈率比較，兩者分別為19.4倍及14.8倍，年初迄今招金股價回落3%，較同期下跌16%的紫金為佳，今年金價表現的投資者，不妨考慮追隨富達在15元附近入市增持招金，上望18元。
招金料金價雙位數升幅，每升1%提高收益2%
2010/03/29
招金礦業預期，黃金價格今年將有雙位數字的升幅，因市場對未來通脹預期，貨幣的購買力，及地綠政治等因素。路東表示，倘若金價上升1%，預期招金礦業今年的每股收益將上升約2%，並預期集團毛利率將平穩，及潛在有改善空間，並指集團毛利率較同業有優勢。
2010 -01
招金礦業將參與遼寧鳳城市黃金企業白云金礦的改制，并組建新公司，招金持股不少于51%。
早在1989年，鳳城市便被列為全國黃金生產重點產地之一，此后連續20年，其黃金產量居遼寧省產金之首，近年來，黃金產量位于全國第七。
“這是一個很好的項目”，鳳城市的項目也遭到多方爭奪。
框架協議簽定后，招金礦業將立即進行盡職調查，
為了獲取白云金礦超過51%的股權，招金將投資1.5億至2億元，使白云金礦的日生產規模由400噸提高到1000-2000噸。
招金還獲得了當地的探礦權，將進行前期找礦和勘查。
近年來，隨著黃金價格的上漲，黃金礦產儲備成為各方爭奪的焦點。而國內主要黃金生產商，也大舉進行了一系列讓人眼花繚亂的資源收購。
招金礦業已經把資源擴張作為“重點工程”
工信部曾提出，要推動國內黃金產業的整合，把資源向幾個國內大型黃金礦業企業傾斜。
2010年4月26日 星期一
宏霸1.85億購空殼公司
從事通訊技術「無線射頻辨識」（即RFID, Radio Frequency IDentification）的宏霸數碼（0802），以現金加配發新股的方式，總代價1.85億元之巨額，收購一間尚未錄得營業額或純利、股本發行總 額僅100美元（約780元）的內地RFID研究公司。採訪：馬子豪
在宏霸的披露交易聲明中，其所收購的內地RFID研究公司 Strong Aim，已經取得3份有關RFID電話及RFID標籤的訂單，預期該批訂單會提高宏霸2010年度盈利，並將推動宏霸目前現有業務的增長。聲明中 指，Strong Aim自今年起直至昨日公布日期，訂單總額約1.79億元。
電話具無線加密功能
聲 明中指，Strong Aim主要從事研發及銷售RFID電話。宏霸指，RFID電話擁有加密、無線傳訊及具備RFID讀寫器等功能，認為該技術具有高商業價值；並稱有意將其所 開發的RFID解決方案，整合至RFID電話。故從此看來，Strong Aim理應可加強宏霸的競爭優勢。
為Strong Aim作出估值的，為專門從事物業估值的威格斯資產評估顧問有限公司。而進行估值時，威格斯僅計及Strong Aim目前3份合同所產生的收入，並無就非經營收入作任何估計。經估算後，Strong Aim的全部權益約為2.638億元。
志 強股本僅百美元
另外，Strong Aim於2008年10月16日註冊成立；生意額方面，在宏霸的聲明中指，在公布日期內尚未錄得任何營業額、稅前或稅後純利以及特別項目；另其發行股本總 額為100美元。而從網上搜尋得來的Strong Aim網頁，公司中文名稱為志強國際，辦事處設於深圳福田區，並自稱為「國內領先的射頻識別（RFID）技術產品及應用系統的供應商」。
對於以 1.85億元收購股本總額為100美元的RFID公司是否值得，立法會資訊科技界議員譚偉豪指，目前RFID技術仍處於投資期，短期內難見回報，故難以評 論是否物有所值。他個人則看好RFID的前景，在中國尤甚，如國家推動「物聯網」、RFID亦有助於打假防偽，故發展潛力巨大。
交易完成後，宏霸 及志強股東Lee Wei Hao即分別持有Strong Aim七成及三成的股權；而另一位股東崔巍及Lee Wei Hao則會分別持有宏霸配發股份後1.37%及4.8%的股權。而陳振聰持股量則由24%，攤薄至22.52%，仍保持第一大股東地位。
OCED VS New Country (Oil Drilling)
The oil majors are now more focussed on opportunities closer to home.
"We are not afraid to be in places like Africa but in the OECD we have less political risk and more predictable tax," said Patrice de Vivies, Total's Northern Europe exploration boss, casting an eye north towards the wisps of smoke drifting from the flame towers of the platforms on the Brent field 30km away.
While companies still eye deals in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and the FSU, there is a broad acceptance that attractive opportunities in these areas will be scarce.
Europe's largest oil company by market value, Royal Dutch Shell Plc has said it plans to direct 60-70% of its investments into the industrialised countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
"We want a certain portion of investment in the OECD ... because we think, long term, we have more political and fiscal stability there," Shell (RDSB) chief executive Peter Voser told a press conference last month.
Previously, big projects in Russia and Nigeria meant the ratio of investment in OECD countries to non-OECD countries was lower, chief financial officer Simon Henry added.
Broad pullback
Spanish oil major Repsol, which in 2006 had gas fields in Bolivia nationalized, has made rebalancing its portfolio towards the OECD a cornerstone of its strategy, prompting new ventures in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and Canada, a spokesman said.
Exxon Mobil, which pulled out of Venezuela due to the seizure of its assets there, and which said it would not put any more money into Russia until its rules on foreign investment became clearer, signalled its focus with a $27-billion (£17.5 billion) agreed bid for US gas producer XTO Energy in December.
Chevron said it expects its OECD production to rise.
This has contributed to muted bidding and unawarded licenses at auctions in Venezuela and Algeria in the past four months.
Increased investment and production in the United States and Europe supports the desire of political leaders there to boost security of energy supplies but, for the companies, the motivation is entirely economic.
"There's little benefit in over-committing to resource-rich countries if the value proposition does not stack up to other options in your portfolio," said Iain Brown, upstream vice-president at consultants Wood Mackenzie in Edinburgh.
The much-drilled OECD is attractive despite the fact that discovery sizes are typically smaller and costs higher.
Production costs in non-OECD countries are much lower but taxes and royalties are high and production sharing agreements often give the host government the lion's share of profits.
Talisman Energy said last year that finding and development (F&D) costs were $34 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) in North America and $39/boe in the North Sea.
By contrast, TNK-BP, the Russian oil producer, half-owned by London-based BP (BP-), said last year it had F&D costs of under $4/boe and analysts put F&D costs in Saudi Arabia at $1-2/boe.
But some non-OECD countries, including Saudi Arabia, reserve their oil fields for their state oil companies and the others demand tough terms -- Russia levies taxes of 90% on profits above $30/barrel oil.
There are also costs attached to non-OECD political unrest: in Nigeria, civil violence has shut down a third of production.
The willingness of Western oil companies to forgo opportunities rather than agree to unprofitable fiscal demands has helped Chinese state-owned oil companies to expand.
Beijing has charged its companies with securing energy sources for China's fast-growing economy and is not so concerned about high political risk and poor economic terms.
Technology helps
A five-minute helicopter ride south of Alwyn, in calm, Norwegian waters, a drilling rig, distinguishable from the crowded production platforms by its flat deck, dominated by a lone drilling derrick, sits above the Hild field.
Hild was found 30 years ago but only now, thanks to modern seismic surveys, can the complex structure be developed.
Indeed, new technology has underpinned the shift to OECD reserves.
New methods for freeing natural gas from low-permeability shale rock have led to a surge in US gas output, cutting US reliance on imports.
Exxon's bid for XTO, a big player in shale gas, is about giving the world's largest non-government controlled oil company by market value a leading position in shale gas.
Similarly, new ways to extract natural gas from coal seams has attracted billions of dollars of investment into Australia and led to the rare sight of onshore rigs drilling in Europe.
Better seismic techniques and platform design has facilitated more exploration in the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico - resulting in multi-billion barrel finds such as BP's Tiber and Kaskida fields - and in the North Sea.
The oil majors' retreat to the OECD is not unprecedented. When Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran threw them out in the 1970s, the companies regrouped in the North Sea and Alaska.
Similarly, analysts expect that, if non-OECD resource-holders start to offer more generous and numerous opportunities, Western oil executives will quickly return.
Nodding amidst the loud hum of the Alwyn rig's gas processing machinery, Total's de Vivies agrees.
"We are not trying to reduce our presence in non-OECD. It is simply that the OECD is where the opportunities are now."
"We are not afraid to be in places like Africa but in the OECD we have less political risk and more predictable tax," said Patrice de Vivies, Total's Northern Europe exploration boss, casting an eye north towards the wisps of smoke drifting from the flame towers of the platforms on the Brent field 30km away.
While companies still eye deals in the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and the FSU, there is a broad acceptance that attractive opportunities in these areas will be scarce.
Europe's largest oil company by market value, Royal Dutch Shell Plc has said it plans to direct 60-70% of its investments into the industrialised countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
"We want a certain portion of investment in the OECD ... because we think, long term, we have more political and fiscal stability there," Shell (RDSB) chief executive Peter Voser told a press conference last month.
Previously, big projects in Russia and Nigeria meant the ratio of investment in OECD countries to non-OECD countries was lower, chief financial officer Simon Henry added.
Broad pullback
Spanish oil major Repsol, which in 2006 had gas fields in Bolivia nationalized, has made rebalancing its portfolio towards the OECD a cornerstone of its strategy, prompting new ventures in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and Canada, a spokesman said.
Exxon Mobil, which pulled out of Venezuela due to the seizure of its assets there, and which said it would not put any more money into Russia until its rules on foreign investment became clearer, signalled its focus with a $27-billion (£17.5 billion) agreed bid for US gas producer XTO Energy in December.
Chevron said it expects its OECD production to rise.
This has contributed to muted bidding and unawarded licenses at auctions in Venezuela and Algeria in the past four months.
Increased investment and production in the United States and Europe supports the desire of political leaders there to boost security of energy supplies but, for the companies, the motivation is entirely economic.
"There's little benefit in over-committing to resource-rich countries if the value proposition does not stack up to other options in your portfolio," said Iain Brown, upstream vice-president at consultants Wood Mackenzie in Edinburgh.
The much-drilled OECD is attractive despite the fact that discovery sizes are typically smaller and costs higher.
Production costs in non-OECD countries are much lower but taxes and royalties are high and production sharing agreements often give the host government the lion's share of profits.
Talisman Energy said last year that finding and development (F&D) costs were $34 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) in North America and $39/boe in the North Sea.
By contrast, TNK-BP, the Russian oil producer, half-owned by London-based BP (BP-), said last year it had F&D costs of under $4/boe and analysts put F&D costs in Saudi Arabia at $1-2/boe.
But some non-OECD countries, including Saudi Arabia, reserve their oil fields for their state oil companies and the others demand tough terms -- Russia levies taxes of 90% on profits above $30/barrel oil.
There are also costs attached to non-OECD political unrest: in Nigeria, civil violence has shut down a third of production.
The willingness of Western oil companies to forgo opportunities rather than agree to unprofitable fiscal demands has helped Chinese state-owned oil companies to expand.
Beijing has charged its companies with securing energy sources for China's fast-growing economy and is not so concerned about high political risk and poor economic terms.
Technology helps
A five-minute helicopter ride south of Alwyn, in calm, Norwegian waters, a drilling rig, distinguishable from the crowded production platforms by its flat deck, dominated by a lone drilling derrick, sits above the Hild field.
Hild was found 30 years ago but only now, thanks to modern seismic surveys, can the complex structure be developed.
Indeed, new technology has underpinned the shift to OECD reserves.
New methods for freeing natural gas from low-permeability shale rock have led to a surge in US gas output, cutting US reliance on imports.
Exxon's bid for XTO, a big player in shale gas, is about giving the world's largest non-government controlled oil company by market value a leading position in shale gas.
Similarly, new ways to extract natural gas from coal seams has attracted billions of dollars of investment into Australia and led to the rare sight of onshore rigs drilling in Europe.
Better seismic techniques and platform design has facilitated more exploration in the deep water of the Gulf of Mexico - resulting in multi-billion barrel finds such as BP's Tiber and Kaskida fields - and in the North Sea.
The oil majors' retreat to the OECD is not unprecedented. When Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran threw them out in the 1970s, the companies regrouped in the North Sea and Alaska.
Similarly, analysts expect that, if non-OECD resource-holders start to offer more generous and numerous opportunities, Western oil executives will quickly return.
Nodding amidst the loud hum of the Alwyn rig's gas processing machinery, Total's de Vivies agrees.
"We are not trying to reduce our presence in non-OECD. It is simply that the OECD is where the opportunities are now."
Trust the leadership?
Trust isn't implied in the numbers of a company. In fact, untrustworthiness can be hidden in those numbers, as anyone who bothers to read the revealing notes to the company accounts will know.
Company reports are one of the more obvious place to look for dodginess. We've written about it here and over here. Nevertheless, you won't always find dishonesty in reports and, if you don't, that doesn't mean you can trust the leadership. We need to consider what other signs there are and add them together.
Positive signals
That said, the opening pages of a report might give us some tips. Typically, these pages are reserved for the highlights, with all the negative stuff buried after the numbers and towards the end of the document. If a company is being forthright on everything that it's done well and badly, this is a potential sign of trust.
Some companies go to greater lengths than most to give you information, perhaps by supplying you with a lot more detail than they are legally required to do. This is another positive signal.
Occasionally there is a report into how trustworthy a company is from the shareholders' point of view, such as Forbes' 100 Most Trustworthy Companies list, which looks for transparent and conservative accounting, and prudent management. The researchers for this report sometimes find what they wouldn't want to see in companies on the list, and note the potential problems at Lehman and AIG as early as 2005, for example.
How the company treats its customers
You can also look to the customer-facing operations of the business such as sales and marketing.
Take the marketing problems of the probiotic yoghurt industry. According to the BBC, Europe tightened up on medical claims in marketing and, after conducting tests on almost 200 claims of the positive effects of the bacteria within these yoghurts, it rejected them all for being either wrong or lacking in evidence.
Danone and Yakult are responding with new or more tightly worded claims and perhaps they'll have enough evidence to support them this time, yet I think this case shows that investors should be asking whether a business is deceiving its customers, intentionally or otherwise. If health claims collapse and customers dissipate, so will forecast earnings.
Similarly, there is sales. The finance industry is an easy and obvious example, as it is constantly inventing expensive products of dubious benefit, and its sales practices are often criticised. A backlash could harm shareholders.
Where not to look
If you're anything like me, you could end up finding suspicious and dubious practices everywhere you look and that will leave us nothing to invest in. We need to know which suspicions to dismiss.
Dubious PR statements and legal responses might be such misleadingly negative signals. PR teams will always look to present things as favourably as possible regardless of the truth, and it may well be that the PR response is developed externally. Hence, we should probably give dubious PR positions less weight.
Legal responses are similar. Lawyers are trained to give a one-sided response, so, if there is an issue, e.g. with volcanic-ash clouds, airlines, and calls for all delayed travellers' expenses to be repaid, lawyers will say 'We don't interpret the law like that,' probing what the boundaries of the law are.
Provided they know if and when to back down, like Ryanair (LSE: RYA) swiftly did last week, what they have tried to do has possibly been in the shareholders' interests.
It's Bolton again
Previously I wrote about Anthony Bolton's book, Investing Against the Tide, so it's kind of sticking in my head at the moment. I barely had space to touch on trust in my book review, but it was a big deal for Bolton. 30 years of experience running money taught him this:
"In my early years of managing money I might have bought shares in a company where I liked the franchise but maybe had some doubts about the management integrity. But not any longer...Despite the protection offered by outside directors and independent accountants, if a management really wants to mislead investors it has plenty of scope to do so and can get away with it for many years. Even if the management appears very competent, if they are not open then this is a significant disadvantage."
We can choose to take a chance on trust and stick with more standard criteria, but that will definitely lead to some blowouts and underperformers in our investing lifetime.
Alternatively, we can add criteria to our checklist that attempt to suss out the management's integrity. If our gut tells us there's something not right, we can look to other companies to invest in.
Company reports are one of the more obvious place to look for dodginess. We've written about it here and over here. Nevertheless, you won't always find dishonesty in reports and, if you don't, that doesn't mean you can trust the leadership. We need to consider what other signs there are and add them together.
Positive signals
That said, the opening pages of a report might give us some tips. Typically, these pages are reserved for the highlights, with all the negative stuff buried after the numbers and towards the end of the document. If a company is being forthright on everything that it's done well and badly, this is a potential sign of trust.
Some companies go to greater lengths than most to give you information, perhaps by supplying you with a lot more detail than they are legally required to do. This is another positive signal.
Occasionally there is a report into how trustworthy a company is from the shareholders' point of view, such as Forbes' 100 Most Trustworthy Companies list, which looks for transparent and conservative accounting, and prudent management. The researchers for this report sometimes find what they wouldn't want to see in companies on the list, and note the potential problems at Lehman and AIG as early as 2005, for example.
How the company treats its customers
You can also look to the customer-facing operations of the business such as sales and marketing.
Take the marketing problems of the probiotic yoghurt industry. According to the BBC, Europe tightened up on medical claims in marketing and, after conducting tests on almost 200 claims of the positive effects of the bacteria within these yoghurts, it rejected them all for being either wrong or lacking in evidence.
Danone and Yakult are responding with new or more tightly worded claims and perhaps they'll have enough evidence to support them this time, yet I think this case shows that investors should be asking whether a business is deceiving its customers, intentionally or otherwise. If health claims collapse and customers dissipate, so will forecast earnings.
Similarly, there is sales. The finance industry is an easy and obvious example, as it is constantly inventing expensive products of dubious benefit, and its sales practices are often criticised. A backlash could harm shareholders.
Where not to look
If you're anything like me, you could end up finding suspicious and dubious practices everywhere you look and that will leave us nothing to invest in. We need to know which suspicions to dismiss.
Dubious PR statements and legal responses might be such misleadingly negative signals. PR teams will always look to present things as favourably as possible regardless of the truth, and it may well be that the PR response is developed externally. Hence, we should probably give dubious PR positions less weight.
Legal responses are similar. Lawyers are trained to give a one-sided response, so, if there is an issue, e.g. with volcanic-ash clouds, airlines, and calls for all delayed travellers' expenses to be repaid, lawyers will say 'We don't interpret the law like that,' probing what the boundaries of the law are.
Provided they know if and when to back down, like Ryanair (LSE: RYA) swiftly did last week, what they have tried to do has possibly been in the shareholders' interests.
It's Bolton again
Previously I wrote about Anthony Bolton's book, Investing Against the Tide, so it's kind of sticking in my head at the moment. I barely had space to touch on trust in my book review, but it was a big deal for Bolton. 30 years of experience running money taught him this:
"In my early years of managing money I might have bought shares in a company where I liked the franchise but maybe had some doubts about the management integrity. But not any longer...Despite the protection offered by outside directors and independent accountants, if a management really wants to mislead investors it has plenty of scope to do so and can get away with it for many years. Even if the management appears very competent, if they are not open then this is a significant disadvantage."
We can choose to take a chance on trust and stick with more standard criteria, but that will definitely lead to some blowouts and underperformers in our investing lifetime.
Alternatively, we can add criteria to our checklist that attempt to suss out the management's integrity. If our gut tells us there's something not right, we can look to other companies to invest in.
2010年4月25日 星期日
兗煤 Analysis
煤炭產品大部分銷往電力、冶金和化工等行業
2009 銷售成本 compare to成本總額 os good (-3% more)
噸煤銷售成本為248.12元，同比(2008)減少26.24元或9.6%
展望
煤
預計2010年集團煤炭銷售平均價格比2009年上升。
煤目前已簽訂國內煤炭銷售合同及意向3,217萬噸，
其中，已簽訂合同1,001萬噸，平均含稅基準價比2009年度上漲17.6% (578.26 RMB/Tn)；
簽訂煤炭銷售意向2,216萬噸，銷售價格將隨市場變化而調整。
預計澳洲煤炭產品價格將大幅提升。
目前兗煤澳洲已簽訂全年煤炭銷售合同812萬噸，
其中：已簽訂4-6 月份煤炭銷售合同192 萬噸，平均合同價格為130.96美元/ 噸。
本集團2010年煤炭銷售計劃4,355萬噸，
其中：公司3,180萬噸，山西能化110萬噸，菏澤能化160萬噸，兗煤澳洲905萬噸。
2009 Main firm Production and price
精煤小計 12,175 724.30
經篩選原煤 17,100 410.91
混煤及其他 4,055 235.01
公司合計 33,330 503.98
山西能化 986 288.90
兗煤澳洲 1,627 668.21
外購煤 2,058 540.65
本集團總計 38,017 507.41
煤炭銷售情況 -華東地區 (72%) of china sale (same in 2008)
but 華南地區 and華北地區 sales vol drop – (-65%) and (-35%)
煤化工業務 - 甲醇
2010年 - 延續供大於求的局面，價格難有回升。國內新建產能釋放，國外低成本優質甲醇進口增加，將進一步增加國內甲醇供應量。
二甲醚、醋酸等下游產品對甲醇需求雖有增加，但甲醇市場整體需求較為平淡。
國家淘汰甲醇落後產能，推廣車用燃料甲醇，以及企業限產等措施，有利於國內甲醇市場趨於穩定。
煤炭、天然氣等原材料價格上漲，將對甲醇價格形成支撐。
本集團2010 年甲醇銷售計劃61 萬噸，其中榆林能化55萬噸，山西能化6萬噸。
鐵路運輸
2009年公司鐵路資產完成貨物運量1,990萬噸，同比增加71萬噸或3.7%；實現鐵路運輸業務收入淨
額（客戶承擔礦區專用鐵路資產運費的貨物運量實現的收入）2.584億元，同比增加11,244 千元或4.5%；鐵路運輸業務成本為2.440 億元，同比增加8,357 千元或3.5%。
電力業務
發電量 - 120000萬千瓦時
Low profit margin -銷售淨額 423151000成本 378600000
熱力業務
2009年華聚能源(new acquisition) 生產熱力117萬蒸噸，銷售熱力117萬蒸噸。其中對外銷售熱力14萬蒸噸，實現銷售淨額13,268千元，銷售成本為7,364千元。
資本負債比率為77.2%。
計算基礎為：公司股東應佔股東權益為291.518 億元，總借貸為225.098億元。
五大供貨商採購的商品及接受的服務金額少於總採購額的30%
向五大客戶的銷售淨額佔總銷售淨額的28.0%
最大客戶華電國際電力股份有限公司的銷售淨額為30.309億元，佔本集團2009年度總銷售淨額的15.3%
預計2010 年本集團資本性支出為40.852 億元，資金來源主要是本集團的自有資金。(mainly兗煤澳洲 20.8 million)
2009 – 20.856
Risk 面臨
宏觀經濟波動 - 受經濟環境、國家宏觀調控政策、煤炭供需以及運力的影響，市場價格波動很大。
壓煤村莊搬遷、
成本上升、
獲取新煤炭資源難度
煤炭企業重組整合形成大型煤業集團，電力企業大量非煤行業企業，開始從事煤炭開採, 使同質化競爭更加激烈
213億購Felix，整合後公司入賬151億人民幣有形資產及220億人民幣商譽。
假設成本按20年攤分，美林估計2010/11年各攤分9億人民幣，估 計每噸成本即分別上升9%/7%。此外，隨著預期息率上升，因收購借款利息開支，今明兩年可能由09年1.92億人民幣，大升至4.74/6.31億人民 幣
經營策略：
穩定菲利克斯公司現有煤礦產量，
實現莫拉本(Aus) 露天礦井投產；(計劃於2010 年5月投入運營，該煤礦商品煤生產規模預計可達1000萬噸╱年)。
加快鄂爾多斯能化60萬噸甲醇項目建設和煤炭資源開發；
實現菏澤能化萬福煤礦開工建設；
加快推進陝西榆樹灣煤礦公司設立，儘快投入商業運營。(this year possibly)
繼續尋求新的項目收購機會。做好兗煤澳洲上市準備工作 (計畫於後年)，推進菲利克斯和澳思達煤礦資產整合；抓住煤炭資源整合機遇，
充分發揮自有資金充足優勢，提高自有資金使用效益；
通過債務融資、權益融資、引進戰略投資者等方式籌集發展資金，做好項目投資、開發和建設，為公司和股東創造更大的收益。
2010 (01-03) 因煤價升幅部份被澳洲Felix產量減少所抵銷，但受動力煤及焦煤漲價支持，預期盈利 增長勢頭持續，評級維持「跑贏大市」，目標價由21.5元上調至22.5元。
上調海運動力煤價假設6%至95美元一噸，
秦皇島熱煤價 每噸上調2%至97美元，
受現貨及合同價上升帶動，預計兗煤今年平均售價上升23%
Rough Est Sales 2010
Coal 25542075 (4355 tonne+15% of 2009 sale price)
Train 275000 (+10%)
Coal Chem 780000 (600000 tonne x same sale price in 2009m – 1300)
Elect 185000 (same from last yr)
Ground heat 13500 (+5%)
Total 26795575
Pre-tax profit (25%, average =30.43 for past 6 years, but the interest rate in the aus purchase could hamper the profit)
6698893
Shareholder funds = 4700000 (70%)
2010 Est
每股盈利= 1.00 HKG
P/E = 18.1
2010 一至三月（首季）純利達二十一億元, 按年升一點九倍，預期今年上半年純利增長逾一倍
今年首季銷售量 +31.1% 1039 萬噸，價格上漲 17.41% (from 508RMB)。
2010年4月24日 星期六
亞洲果業（0073）
中國單一最大的鮮橙生產商及鮮橙種植園園主
擁有及經營鮮橙種植園
集團的策略重點在於培育、生產及出售鮮橙
集團截至二零零九年六月三十日鮮橙年產量約佔二零零八年中國鮮橙年產量2.8%（據美國農業部估計），但集團仍有權合法支配中國面積最大的鮮橙培育土地。從培育土地面積來看，集團高出最接近集團的國內競爭對手數倍。
培育及銷售兩種鮮橙，
冬橙（主要為哈姆林甜橙、臍橙及紅江橙）
夏橙（伏令橙）；
除紅江橙外，鮮橙全部源自美國，
主要銷往企業客戶、批發商及超市
2009 -6與九家連鎖超市訂有供應合約
目前向北京、上海、深圳、天津、廣東省、廣西壯族自治區、貴州省、河南省、湖北省、湖南省、江蘇省及其他地區的客戶銷售鮮橙。
3大客戶佔銷售量比例為
公司客戶 - 43.2%
連鎖超市 - 33.3%
鮮果批發商 - 22.3%
兩個營運中的果園
1) 廣西合浦果園 46,000 畝 (平 均 樹 齡 9.8n yrs)
2) 江西信豐果園 56,000 畝 (平 均 樹 齡 3.8n yrs)
3)湖南省道縣發展５３﹐０００畝的種植場 (已於２００８年展開) and 苗圃中心, 未來四年繼續投資 (5billion RMB in next 3 yrs)，第一批橙樹苗預期於二零一零年底種植，於2013 年之前在該植場種植約2,400,000株橙樹, 第一批橙樹苗第一次收穫時間預期為2014年。
* 種植場均位於陽 光 充 沛 、雨 水 充 足 及 無 霜 期 長 的 地 區, 今 未 曾 遇 上 異 常 強 勁 的 暴 風 雨 或 類 似 的 惡 劣 天 氣
09年底集團經營3個種植園總面積103平方公里，其中種植的橙樹共290萬株，當中230萬株處於產橙樹齡，截止09年底6個月內產量11.45萬噸，料10 年底前產橙樹將增多40萬株。
江西省信豐 - 農產品批發市場及鮮橙加工中心，此項目包括將出售予當地生產商的約650個零售單位６５０個零售單位，第一期２３８個已於 ２００８年６月止年度竣工。當地生產商可利用市場門面銷售其自身的農產信丰批发市场和加工中心二期扩建工程被推迟 in 2009 -03
鮮橙產商可在此銷售及加工鮮橙，亦可作為集團收集並交換市場資料的場所，發展信豐發展項 目並非集團的主要業務。無意將物業發展作為集團的主要業務。
苗圃中心 - 在合浦種植場。透過集團自有苗圃種植樹苗代替採購或外包，實現質量控制以確保樹苗健康成長，並為集團提供額外收入來源。(用於合浦重新種植)，集團將多餘樹苗銷售予當地農民。
集團建立集團自有品牌 - 中國註冊2005 register 「新雅奇」品牌, ２００５年在超市出售「新雅奇」牌鮮橙
2005 並未同時註冊「Royal Star」名稱，原因為鮮橙僅在中國市場銷售。考慮到上市及公司今後的發展，董事認為，同時將「Royal Star」註冊為集團的商標較為適宜，故公司已於2009-2 向中國遞交有關申請。建立自有品牌「Royal Star 新雅奇」，以印有集團標識的包裝盒銷售鮮橙，增加在消費者中的知名度。
主要目標
適當價格銷售優質鮮橙
增強其作為中國領先鮮橙生產商的地位
擁有及經營鮮橙種植園
集團的策略重點在於培育、生產及出售鮮橙
集團截至二零零九年六月三十日鮮橙年產量約佔二零零八年中國鮮橙年產量2.8%（據美國農業部估計），但集團仍有權合法支配中國面積最大的鮮橙培育土地。從培育土地面積來看，集團高出最接近集團的國內競爭對手數倍。
培育及銷售兩種鮮橙，
冬橙（主要為哈姆林甜橙、臍橙及紅江橙）
夏橙（伏令橙）；
除紅江橙外，鮮橙全部源自美國，
主要銷往企業客戶、批發商及超市
2009 -6與九家連鎖超市訂有供應合約
目前向北京、上海、深圳、天津、廣東省、廣西壯族自治區、貴州省、河南省、湖北省、湖南省、江蘇省及其他地區的客戶銷售鮮橙。
3大客戶佔銷售量比例為
公司客戶 - 43.2%
連鎖超市 - 33.3%
鮮果批發商 - 22.3%
兩個營運中的果園
1) 廣西合浦果園 46,000 畝 (平 均 樹 齡 9.8n yrs)
2) 江西信豐果園 56,000 畝 (平 均 樹 齡 3.8n yrs)
3)湖南省道縣發展５３﹐０００畝的種植場 (已於２００８年展開) and 苗圃中心, 未來四年繼續投資 (5billion RMB in next 3 yrs)，第一批橙樹苗預期於二零一零年底種植，於2013 年之前在該植場種植約2,400,000株橙樹, 第一批橙樹苗第一次收穫時間預期為2014年。
* 種植場均位於陽 光 充 沛 、雨 水 充 足 及 無 霜 期 長 的 地 區, 今 未 曾 遇 上 異 常 強 勁 的 暴 風 雨 或 類 似 的 惡 劣 天 氣
09年底集團經營3個種植園總面積103平方公里，其中種植的橙樹共290萬株，當中230萬株處於產橙樹齡，截止09年底6個月內產量11.45萬噸，料10 年底前產橙樹將增多40萬株。
江西省信豐 - 農產品批發市場及鮮橙加工中心，此項目包括將出售予當地生產商的約650個零售單位６５０個零售單位，第一期２３８個已於 ２００８年６月止年度竣工。當地生產商可利用市場門面銷售其自身的農產信丰批发市场和加工中心二期扩建工程被推迟 in 2009 -03
鮮橙產商可在此銷售及加工鮮橙，亦可作為集團收集並交換市場資料的場所，發展信豐發展項 目並非集團的主要業務。無意將物業發展作為集團的主要業務。
苗圃中心 - 在合浦種植場。透過集團自有苗圃種植樹苗代替採購或外包，實現質量控制以確保樹苗健康成長，並為集團提供額外收入來源。(用於合浦重新種植)，集團將多餘樹苗銷售予當地農民。
董事相信，集團於合浦種植場的商業苗圃業務將能夠每12至18個月生產3,000,000至4,500,000株自育樹苗。
目 前 ， 集 團 農 產 品 的 定 價介 乎 較低 廉 的 本 地 鮮 橙 品 種 與 較 昂 貴 的 進 口 品 牌 之 間 。 因 勞 工 成 本 、 運 輸成 本 及 稅 項 方 面 的 差 異 ， 中 國 境 外 鮮 橙 生 產 商 的 成 本 一 般 高 於 集 團 。
- 湖南種植場
合浦苗圃及湖南苗圃開始商業營運後，集團或會發展更多苗圃，可能包括湖北省的一個苗圃。
集團建立集團自有品牌 - 中國註冊2005 register 「新雅奇」品牌, ２００５年在超市出售「新雅奇」牌鮮橙
2005 並未同時註冊「Royal Star」名稱，原因為鮮橙僅在中國市場銷售。考慮到上市及公司今後的發展，董事認為，同時將「Royal Star」註冊為集團的商標較為適宜，故公司已於2009-2 向中國遞交有關申請。建立自有品牌「Royal Star 新雅奇」，以印有集團標識的包裝盒銷售鮮橙，增加在消費者中的知名度。
主要目標
適當價格銷售優質鮮橙
增強其作為中國領先鮮橙生產商的地位
|
瑞安房地产成功竞得上海杨浦区五角场街道311街坊地块
2010 3-31
瑞安房地产成功竞得上海杨浦区五角场街道311街坊地块。
这一毗邻创智坊的地块，被视为瑞安房地产完善创智天地整体规划的重要举措，意味着其 在发展大型多期综合房地产项目业务模式上日益成熟。
同时，瑞安房地产今年在新天地项目上的动作将更频繁，翠湖天地项目亦将有升级产品面世。
统计数据显示，今年2月新天地板块涨幅为13%。租金回报上，2月租金与1月持平。板块内明星楼盘翠湖天地嘉苑被视作豪宅市场领跑者，该项目收官房源将 在近几个月推出。不同于翠湖天地过往推出的产品，此次面市的产品将全面升级，在套型设计、景观、装修标准及配套上，都更符合高端住宅需求。
瑞安房地产成功竞得上海杨浦区五角场街道311街坊地块。
这一毗邻创智坊的地块，被视为瑞安房地产完善创智天地整体规划的重要举措，意味着其 在发展大型多期综合房地产项目业务模式上日益成熟。
同时，瑞安房地产今年在新天地项目上的动作将更频繁，翠湖天地项目亦将有升级产品面世。
统计数据显示，今年2月新天地板块涨幅为13%。租金回报上，2月租金与1月持平。板块内明星楼盘翠湖天地嘉苑被视作豪宅市场领跑者，该项目收官房源将 在近几个月推出。不同于翠湖天地过往推出的产品，此次面市的产品将全面升级，在套型设计、景观、装修标准及配套上，都更符合高端住宅需求。
2010年4月23日 星期五
Antrim Energy - Hist and Analysis ( April 2010 )
Antrim Energy
listed on Aim and the TSX in July 2003 at a price of UK 40p and CAN $0.85, at the time they actually had a large number of interests in a number of prospects from all over the world from Argentina to the Czech Republic to the North Sea and to as far away as Australia, New Zealand and Tunisia.
Only assets that were in production (producing at a rate of just under 500boepd). It was a very risky prospect, but they made this very obvious as they stated themselves about the company and its prospects
Antrim to change their focus to the North Sea where they had been acquiring a number of licences and over 2005
the credit crunch did to Antrim is
1) their assets were no longer as attractive as they once were with the oil price being so low
2) The capital markets dried up thus the massive financing that they needed to bring their fields to production was no longer available.
This scenario brings an old investor saying to mind, and that is ‘it’s better to have £10m cash in your hands then £100m in the ground’,
The new beginning
Antrim’s main assets
Argentina ( currently producing close to 1,800boepd)
But - due to a number of restrictions which include pricing these assets are never going to produce any significant profits.
Fyne and Causeway
Their new investor presentation they highlight how Fyne:
· has proven 2p reserve of over 16mmbbo,
· the Greater Fyne area has the potential to hold near 150mmbbls net to Antrim,
· production could commence in mid 2012,
· Fyne potential to produce near 15,000bopd net to Antrim at its peak.
Causeway:
· farmout deal with Valiant see all costs being covered to production (capped at $22.75m),
· will come online in 2011 and should yield a net production of between 2,000-2,500 bopd.
Other key points from their new presentation are:
· They have $31m in cash with no debt,
· They have net 2p reserves of 37mmbbls,
· They aim to ‘Secure growth without debt’.
The last point from above is a very interesting point to make as pre-crash their plans were to bring all their assets online through debt and rights issues, but now they plan to secure it without debt, and better still through farmouts.
It has to be said this has to be good for shareholders as considering their history of mass rights issues (this is the longest time they have ever gone without a rights issue since listing – near two years) and other financing deals, it will be nice to know that finally management may actually create some shareholder value without then destroying it via a discounted rights issue or financing deal of some sort.
Just to note there are some interesting exclusions from this new presentation that were in the last,
1) no longer show a projected economic model of the fields (i.e. possible earnings),
2) show a future production graph showing what their yearly production targets are for the next 5 years or so,
3) any real idea of the likely capex for Fyne (though there are a few minor hints).
It has to be said it is surprising to see these items excluded as you would think that these would be one of the biggest selling points of the company.
Conclusion
Antrim now are a very different company to what they once were, and though there are many disgruntled shareholders about lamenting the company, it is hard to deny that Antrim look a good company right now as
1) strong balance sheet with $31m in cash and no debt,
2) net 2p proven reserves of 37mmbbls,
3) Causeway fully funded to production which is expected in 2011 when they should start earning some substantial cash flow,
4) Fyne commercial discussions progressing with production targeted for mid 2012.
if all goes well they could be producing 15,000 bopd by 2012 (a low estimation assuming that they have farmed out half their interest in Fyne)
and it becomes hard to deny that they look good value at market cap of £90m, so what is holding them back?
1) disgruntled shareholders mentioned before had a reason to be disgruntled
2) Antrim’s downfall from grace started a year before the credit crunch and actually saw them fall over a period where oil went on its greatest ever bull run
3) Causeway deal which many felt was not great has not helped sentiment.
Nevertheless Antrim do appear a changed company with a renewed focus on shareholder value, and though management will need to prove themselves over time
listed on Aim and the TSX in July 2003 at a price of UK 40p and CAN $0.85, at the time they actually had a large number of interests in a number of prospects from all over the world from Argentina to the Czech Republic to the North Sea and to as far away as Australia, New Zealand and Tunisia.
Only assets that were in production (producing at a rate of just under 500boepd). It was a very risky prospect, but they made this very obvious as they stated themselves about the company and its prospects
Antrim to change their focus to the North Sea where they had been acquiring a number of licences and over 2005
the credit crunch did to Antrim is
1) their assets were no longer as attractive as they once were with the oil price being so low
2) The capital markets dried up thus the massive financing that they needed to bring their fields to production was no longer available.
This scenario brings an old investor saying to mind, and that is ‘it’s better to have £10m cash in your hands then £100m in the ground’,
The new beginning
Antrim’s main assets
Argentina ( currently producing close to 1,800boepd)
But - due to a number of restrictions which include pricing these assets are never going to produce any significant profits.
Fyne and Causeway
Their new investor presentation they highlight how Fyne:
· has proven 2p reserve of over 16mmbbo,
· the Greater Fyne area has the potential to hold near 150mmbbls net to Antrim,
· production could commence in mid 2012,
· Fyne potential to produce near 15,000bopd net to Antrim at its peak.
Causeway:
· farmout deal with Valiant see all costs being covered to production (capped at $22.75m),
· will come online in 2011 and should yield a net production of between 2,000-2,500 bopd.
Other key points from their new presentation are:
· They have $31m in cash with no debt,
· They have net 2p reserves of 37mmbbls,
· They aim to ‘Secure growth without debt’.
The last point from above is a very interesting point to make as pre-crash their plans were to bring all their assets online through debt and rights issues, but now they plan to secure it without debt, and better still through farmouts.
It has to be said this has to be good for shareholders as considering their history of mass rights issues (this is the longest time they have ever gone without a rights issue since listing – near two years) and other financing deals, it will be nice to know that finally management may actually create some shareholder value without then destroying it via a discounted rights issue or financing deal of some sort.
Just to note there are some interesting exclusions from this new presentation that were in the last,
1) no longer show a projected economic model of the fields (i.e. possible earnings),
2) show a future production graph showing what their yearly production targets are for the next 5 years or so,
3) any real idea of the likely capex for Fyne (though there are a few minor hints).
It has to be said it is surprising to see these items excluded as you would think that these would be one of the biggest selling points of the company.
Conclusion
Antrim now are a very different company to what they once were, and though there are many disgruntled shareholders about lamenting the company, it is hard to deny that Antrim look a good company right now as
1) strong balance sheet with $31m in cash and no debt,
2) net 2p proven reserves of 37mmbbls,
3) Causeway fully funded to production which is expected in 2011 when they should start earning some substantial cash flow,
4) Fyne commercial discussions progressing with production targeted for mid 2012.
if all goes well they could be producing 15,000 bopd by 2012 (a low estimation assuming that they have farmed out half their interest in Fyne)
and it becomes hard to deny that they look good value at market cap of £90m, so what is holding them back?
1) disgruntled shareholders mentioned before had a reason to be disgruntled
2) Antrim’s downfall from grace started a year before the credit crunch and actually saw them fall over a period where oil went on its greatest ever bull run
3) Causeway deal which many felt was not great has not helped sentiment.
Nevertheless Antrim do appear a changed company with a renewed focus on shareholder value, and though management will need to prove themselves over time
亞洲果業 - Good or bad 配股交易?
亞洲果業（０００７３）９５０９萬股配股交易（其中有６８００萬股以先舊後新方式出售，另配售２７００萬股現有股份），每股造５﹒７元 (47.82p)，集資淨額３﹒７７億 (£31m)
將配售予不少於６名之專業機構及其他投資者，佔已發行股本１２﹒１１％或佔擴大後股本１１﹒１５％，配售價較最後收市價６﹒３８元折讓１０﹒７％。
集團指，認購事項主要擬用作收購位於中國佔地約一萬畝且擁有約１１０萬棵柑橘類果樹及配套設施的柑橘類水果種植園(State Owned)。其位於中國廣西壯族自治區富川縣，佔地約１萬畝
並致力不遲於２０１１年１月３１日達成並簽署最終的正式協議。由於目標項目已正在營運中，故可帶來即時收入與盈利
The Good
The money will allow them to progress with the planned purchase which could see them increase turnover by near 50% (an estimation using the Hepu plantation which is of a similar size),
The free float will be larger which should help liquidity and thus make the stock more attractive to investors
The top two shareholders which at current have a combined shareholding of approx 63% (Markets Ahead Investment 34.58%, Huge Investments 28.24%) will see their combined holdings fall to less than 55% appeasing fears over their influence on the company.
The bad
The one bad thing about this deal is the actual placing price is at a 10% discount to the current Hong Kong price, and if you take into consideration that the Hong Kong price has never been below HK$6’s, then the placing price of HK$5.70 does seem a little cheap.
Obviously the approaching dilution is not great, but then again it is only a small amount.
Conclusion
In reality and 10% is not really that bad. the benefits that this share sale and rights issue are likely to bring appear to well outweigh the slight downside. Plus if you look at the downside again it is not really that bad as Huge Markets are actually selling their own shares at the placing price so they are not benefitting at shareholders expense from the deal. Also the dilution is only small at less that 10% and what investors are likely to get for this dilution should create more value then it takes.
So to conclude this deal looks a smart move by the management (something that by the reaction of the share price - i.e. of not falling to the rights issue price which is normally the case when there is a discounted rights issue - the markets agree) and has the potential to instantly boost income and hopefully profits with little dilution, and no debt which has to be good for shareholders.
Ben Graham's Fag Packet
Quickly sort through numerous investing possibilities.
A share gets tipped somewhere or other, it rises quickly, you sell it and move on -- and the investing game is all too easy. But it isn't usually like this and blindly following the advice of tipsters is a probable route to failure unless you're simply lucky.
What to do?
So what can you do about it?
Personally, I run a ten-minute "back of a fag packet" test on every company I have on my list to review. If the potential investment doesn't successfully jump this first hurdle, I discard it; simple as that.
What this means in practice is that I miss a lot of shares that go on to greatness as the exciting growth story proves to be real. After all, such a test is scant at best. So be it. For every one of these, there are several others which crash and burn lacking, as they do, in basic value.
Ben Graham's approach
The fag packet test I run is loosely based on legendary investor Ben Graham's formula.
Graham's approach is based on the principle that markets get valuations wrong, saying: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". Hear, hear. When the actual (market) price of a company is below what you would expect it to be, you have the opportunity to buy with a decent safety margin.
Graham's suggested method of calculating value takes a company's last 12-month earnings per share and multiplying it with 8.5 -- the appropriate price-to-earnings ratio for a non-growth company in his opinion.
Then you add 2g -- 'g' represents your best estimate of the annual rate earnings will grow over the long term (say, the next five years).
Finally, multiply the lot by 4.4 -- the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds in 1962, when this particular model was introduced -- and divide by Y -- the current yield on AAA-rated corporate bonds.
The answer should then be divided by its current price -- less than one indicates an overvalued stock which should not be bought, whilst a number greater than one indicates an undervalued stock.
Refinement
Graham later refined his ideas into ten criteria for selecting a portfolio:
earnings yield at least twice the AAA bond yield;
price/earnings ratio below 40% of the highest P/E ratio the stock had over the previous five years;
dividend yield of at least two-thirds the AAA bond yield;
share price below two-thirds of tangible book value per share;
share price below two-thirds of net current asset value per share;
total debt less than tangible book value;
current ratio greater than two;
total debt less than twice net current asset value;
earnings growth over the previous ten years of at least 7% per annum; and
a maximum of two annual earnings falls of 5% or more over the previous ten years.
The fag packet approach
Personally, I look at current assets (stocks, short term debtors and cash) and subtract all liabilities (short and long term creditors).
I also look at yield, overall net tangible asset value and my best guesstimate of future earnings before arriving at my estimation of a company's likely value.
I do this sum (which admittedly involves too much of a subjective judgement for many investors' tastes) in ignorance of the actual market capitalisation.
Anything which is over the real market cap warrants further detailed investigation. But the vast majority don't get over this first basic hurdle and are summarily dispensed with. At least that's the theory. The practice is rather different, but that's another story...
It's amazing how many companies DO pass this test when markets are gloomy and bearish sentiment prevails -- and vice-versa. Running such ten-minute analyses last Spring was like shooting fish in a barrel. At the moment, the barrel is half-full, but there are already significantly more opportunities than a few short weeks ago.
More from David Holding:
A share gets tipped somewhere or other, it rises quickly, you sell it and move on -- and the investing game is all too easy. But it isn't usually like this and blindly following the advice of tipsters is a probable route to failure unless you're simply lucky.
What to do?
So what can you do about it?
Personally, I run a ten-minute "back of a fag packet" test on every company I have on my list to review. If the potential investment doesn't successfully jump this first hurdle, I discard it; simple as that.
What this means in practice is that I miss a lot of shares that go on to greatness as the exciting growth story proves to be real. After all, such a test is scant at best. So be it. For every one of these, there are several others which crash and burn lacking, as they do, in basic value.
Ben Graham's approach
The fag packet test I run is loosely based on legendary investor Ben Graham's formula.
Graham's approach is based on the principle that markets get valuations wrong, saying: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine". Hear, hear. When the actual (market) price of a company is below what you would expect it to be, you have the opportunity to buy with a decent safety margin.
Graham's suggested method of calculating value takes a company's last 12-month earnings per share and multiplying it with 8.5 -- the appropriate price-to-earnings ratio for a non-growth company in his opinion.
Then you add 2g -- 'g' represents your best estimate of the annual rate earnings will grow over the long term (say, the next five years).
Finally, multiply the lot by 4.4 -- the average yield of high-grade corporate bonds in 1962, when this particular model was introduced -- and divide by Y -- the current yield on AAA-rated corporate bonds.
The answer should then be divided by its current price -- less than one indicates an overvalued stock which should not be bought, whilst a number greater than one indicates an undervalued stock.
Refinement
Graham later refined his ideas into ten criteria for selecting a portfolio:
earnings yield at least twice the AAA bond yield;
price/earnings ratio below 40% of the highest P/E ratio the stock had over the previous five years;
dividend yield of at least two-thirds the AAA bond yield;
share price below two-thirds of tangible book value per share;
share price below two-thirds of net current asset value per share;
total debt less than tangible book value;
current ratio greater than two;
total debt less than twice net current asset value;
earnings growth over the previous ten years of at least 7% per annum; and
a maximum of two annual earnings falls of 5% or more over the previous ten years.
The fag packet approach
Personally, I look at current assets (stocks, short term debtors and cash) and subtract all liabilities (short and long term creditors).
I also look at yield, overall net tangible asset value and my best guesstimate of future earnings before arriving at my estimation of a company's likely value.
I do this sum (which admittedly involves too much of a subjective judgement for many investors' tastes) in ignorance of the actual market capitalisation.
Anything which is over the real market cap warrants further detailed investigation. But the vast majority don't get over this first basic hurdle and are summarily dispensed with. At least that's the theory. The practice is rather different, but that's another story...
It's amazing how many companies DO pass this test when markets are gloomy and bearish sentiment prevails -- and vice-versa. Running such ten-minute analyses last Spring was like shooting fish in a barrel. At the moment, the barrel is half-full, but there are already significantly more opportunities than a few short weeks ago.
More from David Holding:
2010年4月21日 星期三
福山 (639)
福山 (639)
母公司首長國際（0697）
焦煤行業龍頭，-內地第二大硬煉焦煤生產商
2008年中以105.3億元 收購位於山西省柳林縣之3個煤礦，興無煤礦、金家莊煤礦及寨崖底煤礦，
採礦面積合共為31.89平方公里，
原地推斷資源量為2.0575億噸，
可採推斷資源量為1.4235億噸，
而原煤年產能合計為630萬噸。
2009收購MountGibson（下稱：MG）1.542億股，相當於MG已發行股本的14.34%。
收購亞太資源（1104）9.56億股股份，佔其已發行股本16.8%。(亞太資源合共持有MG的股權)
交易完成後，福山則持有MG的18.71%實際權益。
MG股份於澳洲交易所上市，
純鐵礦勘探及開採公司，擁有鐵礦石礦床及持有採礦權，
主要業務為開採位於Koolan Island 及Tallering Peak的赤鐵礦石礦床，
以及開發位於西澳洲（包括Koolan Island、Tallering Peak 及Extension Hill ）的赤鐵礦石礦床。
2009年底止年度，福山營業額大升1.4倍至44.7億元，
股東應佔溢利增長98.4%至11.26億元。
焦煤開採的營業額升1.4倍至42.61億元，
經營溢利升1.1倍至4.45億元，
焦炭生產的營業額則增長1.5倍至2.09億元，
經營虧損擴大2.6%至9632萬元。
兩洗煤廠料年底營運
2009年度的業績，首次反映上述3個焦煤礦的全年營運表現，於2008年年度的財務報告則反映該3個焦煤礦逾5個月的營運表現。期內，公司的原焦煤產量由2008年度約250萬噸（5個月）增至2009年度620萬噸（全年），同比增148%；精焦煤產量由2008年度約30萬噸（5個月）增至2009年度約100萬噸（全年），同比增233%。
內地主要鋼鐵生產商的需求以精焦煤為主，福山正致力提升洗煤廠的處理能力，加強精焦煤的業務發展，金家莊煤礦的洗煤廠已於去年6月投產，另外兩座全新洗煤廠預計於今年下旬或明年初開始營運，屆時福山的3個焦煤礦均擁有各自的洗煤廠，年入洗處理量將達1,100萬噸，令各煤礦的營運效率大升，發揮更大的規模效益，支持股價反覆向上推進。
母公司首長國際（0697）
焦煤行業龍頭，-內地第二大硬煉焦煤生產商
2008年中以105.3億元 收購位於山西省柳林縣之3個煤礦，興無煤礦、金家莊煤礦及寨崖底煤礦，
採礦面積合共為31.89平方公里，
原地推斷資源量為2.0575億噸，
可採推斷資源量為1.4235億噸，
而原煤年產能合計為630萬噸。
2009收購MountGibson（下稱：MG）1.542億股，相當於MG已發行股本的14.34%。
收購亞太資源（1104）9.56億股股份，佔其已發行股本16.8%。(亞太資源合共持有MG的股權)
交易完成後，福山則持有MG的18.71%實際權益。
MG股份於澳洲交易所上市，
純鐵礦勘探及開採公司，擁有鐵礦石礦床及持有採礦權，
主要業務為開採位於Koolan Island 及Tallering Peak的赤鐵礦石礦床，
以及開發位於西澳洲（包括Koolan Island、Tallering Peak 及Extension Hill ）的赤鐵礦石礦床。
2009年底止年度，福山營業額大升1.4倍至44.7億元，
股東應佔溢利增長98.4%至11.26億元。
焦煤開採的營業額升1.4倍至42.61億元，
經營溢利升1.1倍至4.45億元，
焦炭生產的營業額則增長1.5倍至2.09億元，
經營虧損擴大2.6%至9632萬元。
兩洗煤廠料年底營運
2009年度的業績，首次反映上述3個焦煤礦的全年營運表現，於2008年年度的財務報告則反映該3個焦煤礦逾5個月的營運表現。期內，公司的原焦煤產量由2008年度約250萬噸（5個月）增至2009年度620萬噸（全年），同比增148%；精焦煤產量由2008年度約30萬噸（5個月）增至2009年度約100萬噸（全年），同比增233%。
內地主要鋼鐵生產商的需求以精焦煤為主，福山正致力提升洗煤廠的處理能力，加強精焦煤的業務發展，金家莊煤礦的洗煤廠已於去年6月投產，另外兩座全新洗煤廠預計於今年下旬或明年初開始營運，屆時福山的3個焦煤礦均擁有各自的洗煤廠，年入洗處理量將達1,100萬噸，令各煤礦的營運效率大升，發揮更大的規模效益，支持股價反覆向上推進。
瀚宇博德(0667) Analysis
1) 全球最大手提電腦印刷電路板（PCB）供應商 (70% rev)。
全球筆電PCB占45%至50%，在2009年Notebook用PCB累計出貨量高達6700萬片，較2008年新增1000萬片
2) 提供電子消費品及通訊行業用於製造遊戲機、機頂盒、伺服器及移動電話之印刷電路板。(30% rev)
集團生產廠房位於中國江蘇省江陰，所有三間廠房之土地使用權均由集團擁有過去三年以幾乎一年一廠的速度快速增長，僅08年沒有新建項目。
目前在两岸 PCB 月产能约 570 万平方呎，其中江阴 535 万平方呎，另外还有高密度连接板 30 万平方呎
利用率保持在95-96%。该公司估计2010年第一季度如果尽80-90%的能力，其收入将降低10%
基於PCB廠「大者恆大」趨勢，瀚宇博德公開為瀚宇博尋求策略聯盟，瀚宇博德表示 包括歐洲、美國、日本及台灣、大陸的PCB同業已有近十家表達合作意願。
瀚宇博德更長遠的擴充目標來看，並計畫在5年內擴充產能倍增到1500萬平方呎。
Positive
1)正在建造的江陰新廠設計産能爲月産能150萬平方英尺，預計2010年第三季度投産，月最大產能將達150萬平方英尺 – (届時産能將擴大29%) 有望繼續强化成本優勢，擴大市場佔有率。
全部投产后，两岸月产能达 750 万平方呎
2) Windows 7的推出，電腦行業預測筆記本電腦將有升級潮
*研究報告指出，2010年筆記型電腦產業年成長可達20%以上
3)內地消費的升級換代，也帶給公司其他的PCB機遇，例如液晶電視、機頂盒以及電子書。集團將投入更多市場推廣和工程能力的資源。希望能夠出現第二大重點產品
4)2009投資台灣精星科技約7.5%股份，精星科技集中於印刷電路板的裝配業務，將經營跨入後段的打件組裝領域。藉由上中下游完整的供應鏈，提供客戶更完整的服務，擴大營業規模與爭取更多的訂單。
5) 瀚宇博德公司 current NB 板營收比重約7 成，客戶大多為國內代工廠商， 伴隨精成(see below)的加入，將新增三星等韓系大廠訂單，也順勢擴展其它客戶群；受惠雙方應用領域的互補性，預估瀚宇博德將跨入記憶體模組板、硬碟板、汽車板等應用.更貼近華南地區客戶，更具產能、供貨、採購優勢)
6)在大陸環保政策趨嚴下，瀚宇博德強調，PCB廠在大陸取得廢水、土地等執照將更形嚴峻，不但無法擴充規模，甚至還面臨遷廠的窘境，瀚宇博德擁有江陰市政府的全力支持. The merger with 台灣精星also 解決產能過於集中與廢水排放額度受限等約束.
7) Potential 台灣精星 45% shared to be put in the company? (which potentially means extra 200萬平方英尺 extra per month (based on the 40% it owns)
Negative
1)2009存貨週轉率增加2天至34天，應收賬周轉天數增15天至132天，應付賬款周轉天減少9天至79天…… need to be aware whether this is continue to increase
2) 瀚宇博德擁有江陰市政府的全力支持…… (for how long? )
3) 原材料成本大幅上揚
4) . 集團負債率53%，財務趨健康??
5) too focus on 電腦印刷電路板…… (need to expend on more different PCB Board)
6) 2009 factory 利用率保持在95-96%。该公司估计2010年第一季度如果尽80-90%的能力，其收入将降低10%
Mother company acquired 精成 PCB company
(2010, 最低付出的金额将在45.8亿元NTD)
目前股本为41.53亿元NTD
精星 主要從事代工生产国内外知名大厂产品 (專業電子製造服務(EMS))，涵盖信息、通讯、汽车、消费性电子等产业，
PCB(印刷電路板)與PCBA(印刷電路板後段加工)的專業製造商 (營收比重佔33%、67%)
精星營運自07 年起大幅衰退，由於先後遭逢大客戶M-system 被併、金融風暴等影響，
目前以消費性產品為主約38%、
PC 為輔約33%，
PCB 電路板月產能約550~600 萬SF (平方呎)75%廠房集中於華南地區。
主要的營運項目為表面粘著技術、傳統插件和最終組生產連工代料服務，屬於PCB後段的組裝領域，
客戶包括宏碁、飛利浦、技嘉、夏普、彩晶、華映、奇美電、GE、Pansonic.
瀚宇博將躍升為Taiwan第二大PCB 廠，公司產值將僅次於欣興電子(3037)。
But未來PCBA產線的規劃，精成科主要營運與獲利重心在於PCBA (67% revenue) ，此部分成本需連工帶料計算，故淨利率偏低，獲利關鍵在於長期訂單的穩定性、高規格化產品、生產線高嫁動率，然受制總體環璄與客戶結構變化，精誠科此部分競爭優勢也日漸勢微。
雖然PCBA上下游連續性作業可望增加客戶黏著度，但考量精成科此部分客戶群並非瀚宇博德所熟悉地筆記型電腦 (NB)業者，故PCBA 產能的何處何從將是瀚宇博德未來首要面對的問題。
http://twnews.cnyes.com/RSH/dsprsh.asp?rno=5&fi=%5CResearch%5C20100319%5C0319-6003-R2.HTM&kind=STCK
http://n.yam.com/cnyes/fn/201002/20100220398718.html
http://www.hannstarboard.com/wps/wcm/connect/Chinese/hk/investor+relations/financials/announcements/announcements_hk_2_det_5
全球筆電PCB占45%至50%，在2009年Notebook用PCB累計出貨量高達6700萬片，較2008年新增1000萬片
2) 提供電子消費品及通訊行業用於製造遊戲機、機頂盒、伺服器及移動電話之印刷電路板。(30% rev)
集團生產廠房位於中國江蘇省江陰，所有三間廠房之土地使用權均由集團擁有過去三年以幾乎一年一廠的速度快速增長，僅08年沒有新建項目。
目前在两岸 PCB 月产能约 570 万平方呎，其中江阴 535 万平方呎，另外还有高密度连接板 30 万平方呎
利用率保持在95-96%。该公司估计2010年第一季度如果尽80-90%的能力，其收入将降低10%
基於PCB廠「大者恆大」趨勢，瀚宇博德公開為瀚宇博尋求策略聯盟，瀚宇博德表示 包括歐洲、美國、日本及台灣、大陸的PCB同業已有近十家表達合作意願。
瀚宇博德更長遠的擴充目標來看，並計畫在5年內擴充產能倍增到1500萬平方呎。
Positive
1)正在建造的江陰新廠設計産能爲月産能150萬平方英尺，預計2010年第三季度投産，月最大產能將達150萬平方英尺 – (届時産能將擴大29%) 有望繼續强化成本優勢，擴大市場佔有率。
全部投产后，两岸月产能达 750 万平方呎
2) Windows 7的推出，電腦行業預測筆記本電腦將有升級潮
*研究報告指出，2010年筆記型電腦產業年成長可達20%以上
3)內地消費的升級換代，也帶給公司其他的PCB機遇，例如液晶電視、機頂盒以及電子書。集團將投入更多市場推廣和工程能力的資源。希望能夠出現第二大重點產品
4)2009投資台灣精星科技約7.5%股份，精星科技集中於印刷電路板的裝配業務，將經營跨入後段的打件組裝領域。藉由上中下游完整的供應鏈，提供客戶更完整的服務，擴大營業規模與爭取更多的訂單。
5) 瀚宇博德公司 current NB 板營收比重約7 成，客戶大多為國內代工廠商， 伴隨精成(see below)的加入，將新增三星等韓系大廠訂單，也順勢擴展其它客戶群；受惠雙方應用領域的互補性，預估瀚宇博德將跨入記憶體模組板、硬碟板、汽車板等應用.更貼近華南地區客戶，更具產能、供貨、採購優勢)
6)在大陸環保政策趨嚴下，瀚宇博德強調，PCB廠在大陸取得廢水、土地等執照將更形嚴峻，不但無法擴充規模，甚至還面臨遷廠的窘境，瀚宇博德擁有江陰市政府的全力支持. The merger with 台灣精星also 解決產能過於集中與廢水排放額度受限等約束.
7) Potential 台灣精星 45% shared to be put in the company? (which potentially means extra 200萬平方英尺 extra per month (based on the 40% it owns)
Negative
1)2009存貨週轉率增加2天至34天，應收賬周轉天數增15天至132天，應付賬款周轉天減少9天至79天…… need to be aware whether this is continue to increase
2) 瀚宇博德擁有江陰市政府的全力支持…… (for how long? )
3) 原材料成本大幅上揚
4) . 集團負債率53%，財務趨健康??
5) too focus on 電腦印刷電路板…… (need to expend on more different PCB Board)
6) 2009 factory 利用率保持在95-96%。该公司估计2010年第一季度如果尽80-90%的能力，其收入将降低10%
Mother company acquired 精成 PCB company
(2010, 最低付出的金额将在45.8亿元NTD)
目前股本为41.53亿元NTD
精星 主要從事代工生产国内外知名大厂产品 (專業電子製造服務(EMS))，涵盖信息、通讯、汽车、消费性电子等产业，
PCB(印刷電路板)與PCBA(印刷電路板後段加工)的專業製造商 (營收比重佔33%、67%)
精星營運自07 年起大幅衰退，由於先後遭逢大客戶M-system 被併、金融風暴等影響，
目前以消費性產品為主約38%、
PC 為輔約33%，
PCB 電路板月產能約550~600 萬SF (平方呎)75%廠房集中於華南地區。
主要的營運項目為表面粘著技術、傳統插件和最終組生產連工代料服務，屬於PCB後段的組裝領域，
客戶包括宏碁、飛利浦、技嘉、夏普、彩晶、華映、奇美電、GE、Pansonic.
瀚宇博將躍升為Taiwan第二大PCB 廠，公司產值將僅次於欣興電子(3037)。
But未來PCBA產線的規劃，精成科主要營運與獲利重心在於PCBA (67% revenue) ，此部分成本需連工帶料計算，故淨利率偏低，獲利關鍵在於長期訂單的穩定性、高規格化產品、生產線高嫁動率，然受制總體環璄與客戶結構變化，精誠科此部分競爭優勢也日漸勢微。
雖然PCBA上下游連續性作業可望增加客戶黏著度，但考量精成科此部分客戶群並非瀚宇博德所熟悉地筆記型電腦 (NB)業者，故PCBA 產能的何處何從將是瀚宇博德未來首要面對的問題。
http://twnews.cnyes.com/RSH/dsprsh.asp?rno=5&fi=%5CResearch%5C20100319%5C0319-6003-R2.HTM&kind=STCK
http://n.yam.com/cnyes/fn/201002/20100220398718.html
http://www.hannstarboard.com/wps/wcm/connect/Chinese/hk/investor+relations/financials/announcements/announcements_hk_2_det_5
紅股誘惑
上市公司派送紅股達拆細效果，增加股份流通量
《經濟通通訊社記者李可美２１日報道》４月份已近尾聲，大部分上市公司已公布去年度全年或今年度中期業績。過往若企業盈利理想的話，通常都會透過派現金股息回報股東。觀乎今次業績期的情況，發覺愈來愈多企業選擇派送紅股，以取代傳統現金股息的方式。往往公布派送紅股後，有關股份股價都有一定的波動。。
＊按股東持股比例派紅股，「碎股」需低價沽售＊
派送紅股，即是公司按股東的持股比例，向股東派發額外的股份。投資者收取紅股後，可於市場上直接沽售套現，但要留意或因派送的是「碎股」而需以低於市價沽售。觀乎，今年有超過２０間上市公司派送紅股，當中不乏大型企業，如：民生銀行（０１９８８）及東方電氣（０１０７２）等。以民行為例，派息５分人民幣及１０送２紅股，即持有１手５００股的投資者，除了收到２５元人民幣股息外，更可額外獲得１００股紅股。
至於傳統的現金股息，不用多說，即是直接派發現金予股東，主要因為企業盈利增長強勁，又或者企業現金流充裕卻暫時無投資機會，就可能透過派息或特別息回饋股東。最新例子是忠旺（０１３３３）今日公布全年多賺８５％，派末期息１９仙及特別息７仙，持有１手４００股的投資者，便可獲取約１０４元股息。
＊送紅股而降低派發現金股息，可避免財政壓力＊
兩種回饋投資者方式，對於公司而言，最大的分別是派發紅股更具彈性，透過增加股份的流通量，達到拆細股份之目的，另一方面又可避免派發現金股息而導致財政壓力。不過，值得留意的是，公司派送紅股後，股價會於除淨日按派送股份比例而下調，股數增加、股價下降，股東手持股份總值仍不變，產生攤薄效應。同樣地，派股息方面，股價亦因除淨亦下調，資產總值仍不變。因此，投資者要留意的是，除淨日股價表現而衡量總體回報表現。
《經濟通通訊社記者李可美２１日報道》４月份已近尾聲，大部分上市公司已公布去年度全年或今年度中期業績。過往若企業盈利理想的話，通常都會透過派現金股息回報股東。觀乎今次業績期的情況，發覺愈來愈多企業選擇派送紅股，以取代傳統現金股息的方式。往往公布派送紅股後，有關股份股價都有一定的波動。。
＊按股東持股比例派紅股，「碎股」需低價沽售＊
派送紅股，即是公司按股東的持股比例，向股東派發額外的股份。投資者收取紅股後，可於市場上直接沽售套現，但要留意或因派送的是「碎股」而需以低於市價沽售。觀乎，今年有超過２０間上市公司派送紅股，當中不乏大型企業，如：民生銀行（０１９８８）及東方電氣（０１０７２）等。以民行為例，派息５分人民幣及１０送２紅股，即持有１手５００股的投資者，除了收到２５元人民幣股息外，更可額外獲得１００股紅股。
至於傳統的現金股息，不用多說，即是直接派發現金予股東，主要因為企業盈利增長強勁，又或者企業現金流充裕卻暫時無投資機會，就可能透過派息或特別息回饋股東。最新例子是忠旺（０１３３３）今日公布全年多賺８５％，派末期息１９仙及特別息７仙，持有１手４００股的投資者，便可獲取約１０４元股息。
＊送紅股而降低派發現金股息，可避免財政壓力＊
兩種回饋投資者方式，對於公司而言，最大的分別是派發紅股更具彈性，透過增加股份的流通量，達到拆細股份之目的，另一方面又可避免派發現金股息而導致財政壓力。不過，值得留意的是，公司派送紅股後，股價會於除淨日按派送股份比例而下調，股數增加、股價下降，股東手持股份總值仍不變，產生攤薄效應。同樣地，派股息方面，股價亦因除淨亦下調，資產總值仍不變。因此，投資者要留意的是，除淨日股價表現而衡量總體回報表現。
2010年4月20日 星期二
真明麗(1868)
LED燈生產商真明麗(1868)
集團從製造白熾燈產品轉型至生產LED產品
2009
營業額11億元 (下跌31%)，
全年純利1.58 億元(增長14％)
利潤增長來自
1)於出售一家聯營公司一次過收益，獲利千多萬。
2) 上市投資，由去年虧損千萬，轉為今年賺約6608 萬元，
3) 呆壞帳撥備則由去年5307 萬減至今年的1074 萬元。
09年上下半年去比較，營業額近似一樣，下半年沒有增長，不是好事。不過下半年毛利率卻大升，由上半年的28%，升至下半年的39%。
原因 - 09下半年集團上中下游垂直整合成功，集團開始生產LED的芯片，自產的芯片比進口芯片節省了製造成本約25%至40%。
09年下半年盈利來計市盈率，是相當於25倍
問題
1) LED方面沒有得到充足的定單。白熾燈產品營業額持續下跌，LED產品營業額卻上升不了。主要有兩個原因，
一是集團的主要市場，如美國及歐洲，經濟大受打擊。
二是基數低，佔真明麗營業額很少部份的國內市場，增長沒有預期般強勁。國內政府於LED照明燈市場一直沒有統一規格，令到很多企業害怕過早換了不合規格的LED，遲遲都不行動。
Good Point
LED取代傳統燈這個過程將會持續
美國及歐洲 recover, 今年集團如無意外保持增長(from 公司管理層), but 管理層亦表示了增長後的營業額仍不及08年高峰時期的水平。
估計真明麗2010盈利最多增長30%，以昨天收市價計 ($5.1)，2010年市盈率20倍。
集團從製造白熾燈產品轉型至生產LED產品
2009
營業額11億元 (下跌31%)，
全年純利1.58 億元(增長14％)
利潤增長來自
1)於出售一家聯營公司一次過收益，獲利千多萬。
2) 上市投資，由去年虧損千萬，轉為今年賺約6608 萬元，
3) 呆壞帳撥備則由去年5307 萬減至今年的1074 萬元。
09年上下半年去比較，營業額近似一樣，下半年沒有增長，不是好事。不過下半年毛利率卻大升，由上半年的28%，升至下半年的39%。
原因 - 09下半年集團上中下游垂直整合成功，集團開始生產LED的芯片，自產的芯片比進口芯片節省了製造成本約25%至40%。
09年下半年盈利來計市盈率，是相當於25倍
問題
1) LED方面沒有得到充足的定單。白熾燈產品營業額持續下跌，LED產品營業額卻上升不了。主要有兩個原因，
一是集團的主要市場，如美國及歐洲，經濟大受打擊。
二是基數低，佔真明麗營業額很少部份的國內市場，增長沒有預期般強勁。國內政府於LED照明燈市場一直沒有統一規格，令到很多企業害怕過早換了不合規格的LED，遲遲都不行動。
Good Point
LED取代傳統燈這個過程將會持續
美國及歐洲 recover, 今年集團如無意外保持增長(from 公司管理層), but 管理層亦表示了增長後的營業額仍不及08年高峰時期的水平。
估計真明麗2010盈利最多增長30%，以昨天收市價計 ($5.1)，2010年市盈率20倍。
2010年4月19日 星期一
廣南集團（1203)
投資控股。公司之附屬公司主要從事製造及銷售馬口鐵及相關產品、物業發展及租賃、鮮活食品代理與經銷及食品貿易。集團主要在香港及中國內地經營業務
內地零售
1) 罐頭材料馬口鐵業務 (Revenue 91.2%, Profit 69.4%)
中山中粵馬口鐵工業有限公司（「中粵馬口鐵」）為本公司之全資附屬公司，而本公司持有中粵浦項（秦皇島）馬口鐵工業有限公司（「中粵浦項」）的66%權益，國際知名鋼鐵企業株式會社POSCO（「POSCO」）佔 34%。
2) 鮮活食品業務 (整體輸港活豬市場佔有率於40%)
廣南行有限公司（「廣南行」）為本公司之全資附屬公司，而廣南行持有廣南生豬貿易有限公司的51%權益。
3) 物業發展及租賃
中山市山海實業有限公司的工業廠房、員工宿舍及香港的寫字樓物業。
2009盈利增79.6%，末期息3仙，
全年綜合營業額23.5億元，同比減21%，應佔盈利1.81億元。
NAV1.72
Positive
2009 整體輸港活豬市場佔有率繼續維持於40%以上，帶來穩定盈利貢獻。
2010 中粤馬口鐵的基板廠技術改造項目，以提升基板的品質和産品的附加值，馬口鐵生産綫的提速改造，以提高馬口鐵的産能。
*原材料採購價格及馬口鐵產品銷量及售價均於2009年初大幅回落. 隨着下游客戶陸續補充存貨，馬口鐵產品銷售 begin 恢復至正常水平。2009 集團馬口鐵業務的經營溢利取得大幅增長。經濟回暖，消費需求有望逐步增加，馬口鐵及下游食品業需求料保持一定增長.
Negative
*鮮活食品業務方面，活豬市場價格較2008年大幅回落，2009營業額和經營溢利均見回順，
原材料價格大幅 up ，國際鋼材市場需求 strong (Iron ore +90% in 2010), how would it effect the 馬口鐵產品?
Would the 提速改造 effect the productivity?
What is the 聯營公司 - 黃龍食品 玉米澱粉銷量(噸) prediction in 2010?
內地零售
1) 罐頭材料馬口鐵業務 (Revenue 91.2%, Profit 69.4%)
中山中粵馬口鐵工業有限公司（「中粵馬口鐵」）為本公司之全資附屬公司，而本公司持有中粵浦項（秦皇島）馬口鐵工業有限公司（「中粵浦項」）的66%權益，國際知名鋼鐵企業株式會社POSCO（「POSCO」）佔 34%。
2) 鮮活食品業務 (整體輸港活豬市場佔有率於40%)
廣南行有限公司（「廣南行」）為本公司之全資附屬公司，而廣南行持有廣南生豬貿易有限公司的51%權益。
3) 物業發展及租賃
中山市山海實業有限公司的工業廠房、員工宿舍及香港的寫字樓物業。
2009盈利增79.6%，末期息3仙，
全年綜合營業額23.5億元，同比減21%，應佔盈利1.81億元。
NAV1.72
Positive
2009 整體輸港活豬市場佔有率繼續維持於40%以上，帶來穩定盈利貢獻。
2010 中粤馬口鐵的基板廠技術改造項目，以提升基板的品質和産品的附加值，馬口鐵生産綫的提速改造，以提高馬口鐵的産能。
*原材料採購價格及馬口鐵產品銷量及售價均於2009年初大幅回落. 隨着下游客戶陸續補充存貨，馬口鐵產品銷售 begin 恢復至正常水平。2009 集團馬口鐵業務的經營溢利取得大幅增長。經濟回暖，消費需求有望逐步增加，馬口鐵及下游食品業需求料保持一定增長.
Negative
*鮮活食品業務方面，活豬市場價格較2008年大幅回落，2009營業額和經營溢利均見回順，
原材料價格大幅 up ，國際鋼材市場需求 strong (Iron ore +90% in 2010), how would it effect the 馬口鐵產品?
Would the 提速改造 effect the productivity?
What is the 聯營公司 - 黃龍食品 玉米澱粉銷量(噸) prediction in 2010?
銘源 (0233)
銘源 (0233)
Positive
1) 銘源在2010年1月與國家藥監局 - 中檢所簽署具技術轉讓協議，轉讓名為「無細胞短棒狀桿菌製劑」（「NCPP」）的新型非特異性免疫治療藥物一切知識產權連同其生產技術，
銘源將負責生產及銷售NCPP藥物。中檢所將繼續就NCPP藥物的開發及生產進行技術指導，並與銘源攜手合作進一步開發NCPP藥物在其他疾病的臨床應用。
NCPP藥物是用作治療包括甲型H1N1流感、結核病、人類免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）及若干癌症等危疾。近期，內地發生嚴重旱災，導致中藥八角失收，影響特敏福供應，而新型NCPP藥物將會在甲型H1N1流感治療上大派用場.
2) 早前世界衛生組織的全球HPV實驗室網絡公布了HPV DNA檢測能力研究，評估了全球實驗室常用HPV DNA檢測及定型產品的敏感度及特異性，結果顯示僅三種HPV DNA產品達到100%符合率，銘源銘源研究及開發的HPV DNA檢測子宮頸癌診斷試劑，擁有專為檢測子宮頸癌而設的SNIPER（TM）專利技術，產品在全國銷售。
3)公司於2010年成功開發的多腫瘤標誌物檢測的蛋白芯片系統 (C12產品），適用於肝癌、胃癌、肺癌、胰腺癌、結腸癌、卵巢癌、前列腺癌、食道癌、子宮內膜癌等常見惡性腫測試診斷。公司與中國人籌、太平人壽及中保康聯等保險公司訂立協議，在標準健康檢查使用C12產品。
4) C12產品列入上海市醫療服務項目和價格表「上海醫保目錄」，作為可報銷臨床檢測
Positive
1) 銘源在2010年1月與國家藥監局 - 中檢所簽署具技術轉讓協議，轉讓名為「無細胞短棒狀桿菌製劑」（「NCPP」）的新型非特異性免疫治療藥物一切知識產權連同其生產技術，
銘源將負責生產及銷售NCPP藥物。中檢所將繼續就NCPP藥物的開發及生產進行技術指導，並與銘源攜手合作進一步開發NCPP藥物在其他疾病的臨床應用。
NCPP藥物是用作治療包括甲型H1N1流感、結核病、人類免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）及若干癌症等危疾。近期，內地發生嚴重旱災，導致中藥八角失收，影響特敏福供應，而新型NCPP藥物將會在甲型H1N1流感治療上大派用場.
2) 早前世界衛生組織的全球HPV實驗室網絡公布了HPV DNA檢測能力研究，評估了全球實驗室常用HPV DNA檢測及定型產品的敏感度及特異性，結果顯示僅三種HPV DNA產品達到100%符合率，銘源銘源研究及開發的HPV DNA檢測子宮頸癌診斷試劑，擁有專為檢測子宮頸癌而設的SNIPER（TM）專利技術，產品在全國銷售。
3)公司於2010年成功開發的多腫瘤標誌物檢測的蛋白芯片系統 (C12產品），適用於肝癌、胃癌、肺癌、胰腺癌、結腸癌、卵巢癌、前列腺癌、食道癌、子宮內膜癌等常見惡性腫測試診斷。公司與中國人籌、太平人壽及中保康聯等保險公司訂立協議，在標準健康檢查使用C12產品。
4) C12產品列入上海市醫療服務項目和價格表「上海醫保目錄」，作為可報銷臨床檢測
福山能源 (639)
2009年盈利為11.26億元，按年升98%但低於市場預期的15億元。主要是由於
1)因授出購股權而支付之非現金酬金開支1.1億元及購入可出售資產所產生的2.2億元非現金交易虧損；
2)2009年下半年公司作出及
3)公司因增加精焦煤銷售而令運輸成本上升
去年發行新股的攤薄效應，每股盈利由08年的0.17元增40%至09年的0.24元。
公司建議0.11元的末期息(2008年並未有派發股息)，再加上之前0.10元的中期息，公司2009年的派息比率高達97%。
以半年計，下半年的營業額較上半年升15%，但毛利只輕微升1.3%，
2009年的整體毛利率仍處於68%的高水平，較2008年的65%高3個百分點。
下半年生產成本增加主要由於政府收取相當於原煤價格1%的環境相關費用及每噸約0.67元人民幣的土地使用費。
2009年的原焦煤產量與2008年相比增加15%至619萬噸，而精焦煤產量與2008年相比增加29%至99萬噸。本行估計公司今年的精焦煤產量將增加50%至150萬噸，進一步提升公司的盈利能力。
Positive
1) 下游需求持續復甦，相信中國的鋼鐵產量將依然強勁，
2) 中國的焦煤供應將會因山西及河北省的煤礦整合而仍然偏緊。預期中國的焦煤價格在未來數月將會繼續攀升，而公司在3月份的原煤價格已較2009年的平均水平高逾20%
本行2010年的焦煤價格假設(原焦煤的價格按年升24%，而精焦煤價格按年升15%)，本行估計在計入原煤與精煤的轉換比率後，生產精焦煤的每噸毛利較原焦煤高約210元人民幣。而公司2009年的營業額及毛利將分別增長40%及48%，而毛利率亦由09年的68%提升至10年的71%。
本行估計福山能源的2010年純利將達23.3億元(每股盈利0.43元)，即每股盈利增長84%。現價相當於13倍2010年市盈率，估值並不昂貴，因公司盈利增長強勁及產能有可能因完成收購山西煤礦及聯山煤礦的開採權得到審批而有所增加。
股價近期弱勢，本行認為主要是由於公司放棄收購旗盤山煤礦及聯山煤礦審批的進度較預期慢。然而公司重申聯山煤礦的申請仍在進行中，而公司亦有信心在未來數月得到審批。
同一時間，公司仍在為收購第二大股東旗下的12個煤礦而進行盡職審查。此兩事項有任何實則性的進展將是股價的催化劑。重申買入建議，6個月目標價調整至7.3元，相當於17倍2010年市盈率。
《國浩資本業務發展經理 張文強》
Systematic money management techniques
Those who do not practice these techniques suffer the consequences when market movements are extreme.
Money management in this context does not refer to making sure that surplus cash in a broking account gets the best rate of interest possible. It is rather the process of applying techniques that mean that no undue risks are run.
Probably the first rule, which sounds obvious, is to remember that losing money is painful and the more you lose, the harder it is to make back. Say you have £1000 to invest, if you lose 10% in an investment, this takes your balance down to £900. But in a subsequent investment you would need to make 11% to recoup the loss.
Lose 20% and you need gain 25% to get back to your original amount. Lose 50% and you need to double your money in a subsequent investment to recover your loss.
This argues strongly, not only for spreading risk, which I will come to later, but also for having the discipline to cut losses according to a systematic formula. This might be to sell automatically if an investment loses more than, say, 12% of its value, or to sell a profitable investment if it drops more than 15% from a recent all-time high. It depends on the type of investment and the circumstances.
But having a 'decision rule' like this helps take the emotion out of the action of selling a loss maker. Emotion is present because by implication selling a loss-maker means admitting to yourself that you made a mistake. For longer term investors, simply having the mental discipline to apply a rule this should be enough. For short term traders, using stop-losses should be an essential part of trading.
One other discipline is to know how much you can comfortably afford to lose on a single transaction and not to put more than that at risk. How you apply this depends on the type of investor you are.
A short-term trader, buying and selling volatile types of investments, like currencies or commodities, for example, might suggest not risking more than 1-2% of capital on a single trade.
For longer term investors, it comes down to knowing what your 'pain barrier' is, and sticking to it - bearing in mind that a profit warning or sudden announcement of financial difficulty can produce an instant sharp drop in price.
Taking losses without emotion is easier if you have adequate capital to begin with. This sounds trite, but it is a fact. If you are concerned about what might happen to your broader finances if an investment goes bad, then your money probably shouldn't be invested in anything that might prove unduly volatile.
Averaging down, adding to a holding in an individual share that has fallen in price, is a common error. Investors reason that if the shares they originally bought has gone down significantly, then it must be even cheaper than they thought.
The correct reason is that to buy more under these circumstances is to compound a mistake, and to put more money into a share that has already not acted in the way you expected.
Though it is counter-intuitive, the better strategy is to add to a share that has risen in price, not the other way around.
The danger with this, however, is that the share in question may have reached its correct value, and that to buy more is simply increasing your exposure to it, and therefore increasing your risk for a lower potential return.
Most investors feel intuitively more comfortable with a technique know as 'scaling out', which is selling part of a holding that has appreciated substantially in order to recoup a large part of the original book cost and leave the investment, as the phrase goes, 'in for nothing'.
Clearly this can only be done with a share that has risen very sharply and is usually only appropriate in smaller companies that have shot up for no apparent reason.
Techniques like this have helped make investment decisions over a period of more than nearly three decades as an active investor on my own account. Any scary moments or significant losses I have incurred have generally been when I have chosen to ignore them.
It is also important to adapt the techniques you use to the underlying market environment. One advantage private investors have over most so-called 'long-only' institutional fund managers is that they do not need to stick to being fully invested most of the time, nor do they have to stick to prescribed investment formula or type of investment.
Private investors can draw their investments from the whole gamut of the stockmarket, bonds, tangible assets and cash - remembering only that the same trading rules apply, and that those investing in tangible assets need to make allowance for the reduced trading liquidity that such investments have.
Equally it is worth bearing in mind that stock specific risk can be eliminated by using index funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) instead (although not exchange traded commodities, which are more like single stocks in terms of the risk they pose.)
Money management in this context does not refer to making sure that surplus cash in a broking account gets the best rate of interest possible. It is rather the process of applying techniques that mean that no undue risks are run.
Probably the first rule, which sounds obvious, is to remember that losing money is painful and the more you lose, the harder it is to make back. Say you have £1000 to invest, if you lose 10% in an investment, this takes your balance down to £900. But in a subsequent investment you would need to make 11% to recoup the loss.
Lose 20% and you need gain 25% to get back to your original amount. Lose 50% and you need to double your money in a subsequent investment to recover your loss.
This argues strongly, not only for spreading risk, which I will come to later, but also for having the discipline to cut losses according to a systematic formula. This might be to sell automatically if an investment loses more than, say, 12% of its value, or to sell a profitable investment if it drops more than 15% from a recent all-time high. It depends on the type of investment and the circumstances.
But having a 'decision rule' like this helps take the emotion out of the action of selling a loss maker. Emotion is present because by implication selling a loss-maker means admitting to yourself that you made a mistake. For longer term investors, simply having the mental discipline to apply a rule this should be enough. For short term traders, using stop-losses should be an essential part of trading.
One other discipline is to know how much you can comfortably afford to lose on a single transaction and not to put more than that at risk. How you apply this depends on the type of investor you are.
A short-term trader, buying and selling volatile types of investments, like currencies or commodities, for example, might suggest not risking more than 1-2% of capital on a single trade.
For longer term investors, it comes down to knowing what your 'pain barrier' is, and sticking to it - bearing in mind that a profit warning or sudden announcement of financial difficulty can produce an instant sharp drop in price.
Taking losses without emotion is easier if you have adequate capital to begin with. This sounds trite, but it is a fact. If you are concerned about what might happen to your broader finances if an investment goes bad, then your money probably shouldn't be invested in anything that might prove unduly volatile.
Averaging down, adding to a holding in an individual share that has fallen in price, is a common error. Investors reason that if the shares they originally bought has gone down significantly, then it must be even cheaper than they thought.
The correct reason is that to buy more under these circumstances is to compound a mistake, and to put more money into a share that has already not acted in the way you expected.
Though it is counter-intuitive, the better strategy is to add to a share that has risen in price, not the other way around.
The danger with this, however, is that the share in question may have reached its correct value, and that to buy more is simply increasing your exposure to it, and therefore increasing your risk for a lower potential return.
Most investors feel intuitively more comfortable with a technique know as 'scaling out', which is selling part of a holding that has appreciated substantially in order to recoup a large part of the original book cost and leave the investment, as the phrase goes, 'in for nothing'.
Clearly this can only be done with a share that has risen very sharply and is usually only appropriate in smaller companies that have shot up for no apparent reason.
Techniques like this have helped make investment decisions over a period of more than nearly three decades as an active investor on my own account. Any scary moments or significant losses I have incurred have generally been when I have chosen to ignore them.
It is also important to adapt the techniques you use to the underlying market environment. One advantage private investors have over most so-called 'long-only' institutional fund managers is that they do not need to stick to being fully invested most of the time, nor do they have to stick to prescribed investment formula or type of investment.
Private investors can draw their investments from the whole gamut of the stockmarket, bonds, tangible assets and cash - remembering only that the same trading rules apply, and that those investing in tangible assets need to make allowance for the reduced trading liquidity that such investments have.
Equally it is worth bearing in mind that stock specific risk can be eliminated by using index funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs) instead (although not exchange traded commodities, which are more like single stocks in terms of the risk they pose.)
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