A 24 May update asserts "the business continues to perform strongly" and results for its financial year to end-June in line with expectations.
capitalising the group at £133 million,
this implies a forward price-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 10 times and yield of 4.4%.
Cost pressures likely to affect many British households as wages and pensions get frozen while inflation and VAT are liable to edge up, pawnbroking looks set to remain a sweet spot.
There is a slight twist in the investment case given ABM combines pawnbroking with jewellery retailing. It makes long-term strategic sense because pawned jewellery can be sold on and in good times people often pawn an item to buy a new one.
It also helps to smooth profit from the different activities over economic cycles however 'jewellery retailing' likely explains the turn in sentiment towards ABM. Management cites continued slowing in demand for retail jewellery "however this has been more than offset by the overall performance" also because ABM has opted to scrap items earlier to exploit high gold prices rather than re-sell the jewellery.
Pawnbroking currently represents 60% of gross profit and is performing well, its pledge book showing 10% year-on-year growth - "a good indication of the company's underlying performance" management says. Gold buying has remained consistent with strong performance in the first half (ie second-half 2009) likewise margins despite higher competition. Rising gold prices amid global financial jitters are a promising context for pawnbroking, hence ABM's pioneering 'pop up' gold buying shops is nicely timed. Nine of these have been established typically in shopping malls with low fit-out costs and flexible three to six-month leases, and a further six are targeted to be open by end-June.
Jewellery retailing represented 20% of profit in the last financial year, so there is not a significant aspect of group business at risk - furthermore we have already seen from ABM's interim results that despite the anticipation of recession, gross profit on the retailing side only slipped from £5.1 million to £4.2 million like for like. So the market's recent caution looks overdone.
The financial services side, which represented 12% of group revenue and 16% of profit in its last financial year, has continued to deliver improvements.
Towards future growth, at least 15 new pawnbroking stores are expected to have opened in the current financial year with break-even projected within the first 12 months. These are being funded by organic cash generation, a healthy sign, taking the total number of stores near 140. There is £17 million headroom against banking facilities hence scope to support further openings.
Considering also, a five-year growth plan with new senior management appointments already made, it is a bit curious how brokers' forecasts project flat or even declining profit for ABM's 2010/11 year. Company REFS shows the consensus looking for growth in normalised pre-tax profit from £14.7 million to £19.7 million in the current year, then £190 million in 2010/11. However last February Collins Stewart, ABM's broker, projected modest growth for the next financial year. This cautious outlook, also P/E multiple relative to recent years when it breached 20 times despite lower profitability, means ABM deserves ongoing attention.
If management can deliver on its five-year plan, then considering the last five years (from £5.6 million pre-tax profit) this is going to result in one of the most impressive long-term growth records in the market. Dividends have also grown significantly with earnings, for example from 4.0p a share in 2004/05 to 10p projected for ABM's current year.
Management clearly has a good story to tell and is trying to get it across, hosting analyst and investor visits at its stores today. This quite explains the trading update, so all investors are informed as to current progress. Possibly this event will stimulate further institutional interest in ABM although the business fundamentals stand on their own merits, to reconsider the shares.
2010年5月27日 星期四
2010年5月26日 星期三
Innovation Group
Global provider of enterprise software and business process outsourcing solutions to the insurance, financial services, motor and fleet industries world-wide.
The main aims throughout the first half of this financial year have been to restructure the underperforming divisions of our business, improve client relationships in our key geographies and continue to re-shape our technology investment programme.
Making significant and important changes to our operational teams in the UK, US and our Technology division; by entering into numerous proof of concept agreements with leading insurance and motor organisations and by rolling out our Enterprise platform as planned in both France and Spain.
There is more work to be done in the second half, but I am pleased with our operational progress so far.
In the six months to 31 March 2010 Group revenue and adjusted profit before tax are £76.9m and £2.5m respectively (H1 2009: £75.5m and £4.9m). Reported revenue for the six months has increased by 2% (decrease of 3% at constant currency).
Organic outsourcing revenues grew by 2% at constant currency, whilst software revenues declined by 26% in line with our intention to focus more heavily this year on driving profitable outsourcing business. Adjusted profit before tax has decreased to £2.5m (H1 2009: £4.9m), again due primarily to the reduction in high margin software license revenue as we continue to evolve with our customers towards a Software-as-a-Service ("SaaS") model.
We have made significant changes to key management in the UK, US and Technology divisions and management reporting lines have been restructured to drive greater efficiency. As highlighted in the Interim Management Statement ("IMS") of 18th February, the Group has taken an exceptional restructuring charge of approximately £3.1m in the first half of this financial year, with a further £0.5m expected in the second half. After making some required new hires the Board anticipates net annualised cost savings from these actions will be approximately £2.8m.
Gross cash at 31 March 2010 was £41.1m with a net cash balance of £22.3m. In December 2009 the Group raised approximately £20.0m for specific future margin enhancing projects as well as for some fundamental restructuring, particularly in the under-performing regions of the UK and North America, as described above.
In the first instance, these funds have been applied to the business as follows: -
• Working capital for the German rapid payment initiative. This is progressing well with approximately 70% of garages/body repair centres already having signed up to the improved terms;
• Funding proofs of concept in our key geographies; and
• Repayment in full of our £5.7m short term credit facility.
Funds will also be used to re-pay approximately £4.5m (ZAR 50.0m) of the high interest bearing Black Economic Empowerment loan in South Africa at the end of May 2010.
The Management team is confident that, collectively, these initiatives will generate substantial future margin enhancement in 2011 and beyond.
Since the start of the year, the Group has embarked從事，開始 on numerous proofs 檢驗of concept in the UK, North America and South Africa. As advised at the time of our IMS, these proofs of concept, which create additional costs in the short term, are an important part of our goal to increase both the number of customers we work with and the volume of claims handled by our platform.
As the Group moves towards securing larger outsourcing contracts, customers are increasingly requiring these three to six month pilots航線指南 to provide them with the necessary outcome data upon which to base their decision to proceed with a full-term contract.
In North America and South Africa, two of these pilots have already resulted in full-term contracts being signed which have been recently announced and the remainder are still ongoing. The contract that we have been awarded in South Africa with revenues totalling approximately £31.0m over a five year period, is the largest contract win in the Group's history.
The Group continues to progress with several more proofs of concept globally and remains confident that some of these will convert to full-term contracts before the year end generating profit for the Group in 2011 and beyond. In addition to new contract wins, the Group has also been successful in the first half in securing significant sizeable contract renewals with long standing customers in all regions.
In December 2009 the Group stated that the level of software revenue, in particular one-off licence fees, would be significantly reduced in 2010 as the business model gradually moves more towards SaaS. This move will ultimately increase the quality of our earnings but it is not clear in discussions with current potential customers how quickly this migration to the SaaS model will be adopted.
Our enhanced technology platform, Enterprise, has been implemented in both France and Spain. Having seen the positive effects of this roll-out in these regions, the Group has made a strategic decision to change the order of the remaining regional roll-out. It is now our intention to roll-out next in Germany - a region that requires the greatest functionality and a move that will give the largest cost benefit to the Group in 2011. The UK, which will now include significant enhancement for a new customer revenue stream will follow Germany. The full cost benefit from implementation in these regions will be seen in 2011.
Financial Review
Total revenue for the six months was £76.9m of which £67.6m, representing 88% is outsourcing revenue (H1 2009: 83%). On a constant currency basis, overall revenue has declined by 3%. The decline in constant currency terms is due to the reduction in software related revenues which fell 26% at constant currency. Outsourcing revenues at constant currency increased by 2%. There is no acquisition related revenue in either period.
Adjusted profit before tax has decreased to £2.5m (H1 2009: £4.9m). This reduction is due primarily to the reduction in high margin software revenue and H1 2009 also included a significant foreign exchange gain of £1.2m (H1 2010: £0.3m).
Adjusted profit for H1 2010 includes a one-off gain of £0.8m relating to a change in accounting estimates in relation to administration fees recognised in the Group's property subsidence 減退 division. Management believe this change is necessary to better reflect revenue in line with service delivered over the lifecycle of a claim. Substantial growth is anticipated in this area over the next twelve months and hence the change now will better reflect the timing of future profits in line with accounting standards. This is detailed under critical accounting estimates and judgements in note 1. Included within finance income is £0.8m relating to the write back of a loan which was waived放棄 in the period.
The reported loss before tax of £1.0m (H1 2009: profit £1.4m) includes amortisation of acquired intangible assets of £1.8m (H1 2009: £2.0m), a share-based payment credit of £1.3m (H1 2009: charge £1.6m) and exceptional costs of £3.1m (H1 2009: £nil). Adjusted EPS is 0.17p per share (H1 2009: 0.46p) and basic loss per share is 0.29p (H1 2009: 0.01p). The Group full year effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 35% depending on the location of trading profits in the remainder of this year. The tax rate is higher than previous years due to the increase in profits expected from Germany and South Africa, both of which are tax paying regions with no tax losses available for offset against profits.
The share-based payment credit arose due to the number of options forfeited喪失 following the departure of the former CEO and several members of the senior Management team in the subsequent restructuring.
Exceptional restructuring costs are £3.1m (H1 2009: £nil). These costs relate primarily to redundancy costs in the Group's underperforming BPO regions of the UK, North America and Technology and are attributable to those regions as follows: UK (£1.2m), North America (£1.1m) and Technology (£0.5m). In addition the Group closed its loss making operation in the Netherlands at a cost of £0.3m. The Group expects to take a further exceptional charge of approximately £0.5m in the second half as final restructuring is completed. The total annualised gross cost saving is approximately £4.0m with the Group benefitting from a net saving on an annualised basis of £2.8m from the end of Q3.
In light of the rapid progress made in restructuring the business, the Board is now in a position to consider the Group's reduced property requirements in both the US and the UK. Though plans have yet to be formalised, we have identified annualised potential cost savings of up to £1.0m from 2011 relating to two leases. Should we pursue this strategy, the Company will incur a one-off exceptional charge in the second half of the current financial year of approximately £4.5m with the cash impact being spread over the remaining terms of the leases.
The gross cash balance at 31 March 2010 was £41.1m (H1 2009: £25.6m) with net cash of £22.3m (H1 2009: £1.6m). Operating cash outflow of £4.6m includes payment of prior and current years exceptional costs of £3.4m as well as a significant working capital injection into Germany of approximately £4.5m for the new payment process, as detailed at the time of the fund raising. After accounting for these items, cash to EBITDA conversion is approximately 85%.
In December 2009, the Group raised approximately £20.0m from shareholders. This cash has already been invested as planned to facilitate the new payment process in Germany, fund proofs of concept for large outsourcing contracts across our key geographies and to restructure the Group's underperforming divisions. At the end of May 2010, the Group will repay capital of ZAR 50m (£4.5m) from the Black Economic Empowerment loan. In addition, the Group has currently repaid in full, the £5.7m rolling credit facility although this facility remains available until July 2011.
Board Change
11 February 2010 I was appointed as Chief Executive Officer and David Thorpe assumed the role of Non-Executive Chairman.
Outlook
The Group's performance is historically weighted towards the second half of the year and this trend will be greater in the current financial year. The Board is pleased with the number of new proofs of concept already underway this year and with the conversion rate thus far. The restructuring program has also given the Group a lower cost base for the second half and beyond.
As a result, the Board remains confident that, unless there is further deterioration in economic conditions in our markets, full year results (before exceptional restructuring costs) will be in line with our expectations
The main aims throughout the first half of this financial year have been to restructure the underperforming divisions of our business, improve client relationships in our key geographies and continue to re-shape our technology investment programme.
Making significant and important changes to our operational teams in the UK, US and our Technology division; by entering into numerous proof of concept agreements with leading insurance and motor organisations and by rolling out our Enterprise platform as planned in both France and Spain.
There is more work to be done in the second half, but I am pleased with our operational progress so far.
In the six months to 31 March 2010 Group revenue and adjusted profit before tax are £76.9m and £2.5m respectively (H1 2009: £75.5m and £4.9m). Reported revenue for the six months has increased by 2% (decrease of 3% at constant currency).
Organic outsourcing revenues grew by 2% at constant currency, whilst software revenues declined by 26% in line with our intention to focus more heavily this year on driving profitable outsourcing business. Adjusted profit before tax has decreased to £2.5m (H1 2009: £4.9m), again due primarily to the reduction in high margin software license revenue as we continue to evolve with our customers towards a Software-as-a-Service ("SaaS") model.
We have made significant changes to key management in the UK, US and Technology divisions and management reporting lines have been restructured to drive greater efficiency. As highlighted in the Interim Management Statement ("IMS") of 18th February, the Group has taken an exceptional restructuring charge of approximately £3.1m in the first half of this financial year, with a further £0.5m expected in the second half. After making some required new hires the Board anticipates net annualised cost savings from these actions will be approximately £2.8m.
Gross cash at 31 March 2010 was £41.1m with a net cash balance of £22.3m. In December 2009 the Group raised approximately £20.0m for specific future margin enhancing projects as well as for some fundamental restructuring, particularly in the under-performing regions of the UK and North America, as described above.
In the first instance, these funds have been applied to the business as follows: -
• Working capital for the German rapid payment initiative. This is progressing well with approximately 70% of garages/body repair centres already having signed up to the improved terms;
• Funding proofs of concept in our key geographies; and
• Repayment in full of our £5.7m short term credit facility.
Funds will also be used to re-pay approximately £4.5m (ZAR 50.0m) of the high interest bearing Black Economic Empowerment loan in South Africa at the end of May 2010.
The Management team is confident that, collectively, these initiatives will generate substantial future margin enhancement in 2011 and beyond.
Since the start of the year, the Group has embarked從事，開始 on numerous proofs 檢驗of concept in the UK, North America and South Africa. As advised at the time of our IMS, these proofs of concept, which create additional costs in the short term, are an important part of our goal to increase both the number of customers we work with and the volume of claims handled by our platform.
As the Group moves towards securing larger outsourcing contracts, customers are increasingly requiring these three to six month pilots航線指南 to provide them with the necessary outcome data upon which to base their decision to proceed with a full-term contract.
In North America and South Africa, two of these pilots have already resulted in full-term contracts being signed which have been recently announced and the remainder are still ongoing. The contract that we have been awarded in South Africa with revenues totalling approximately £31.0m over a five year period, is the largest contract win in the Group's history.
The Group continues to progress with several more proofs of concept globally and remains confident that some of these will convert to full-term contracts before the year end generating profit for the Group in 2011 and beyond. In addition to new contract wins, the Group has also been successful in the first half in securing significant sizeable contract renewals with long standing customers in all regions.
In December 2009 the Group stated that the level of software revenue, in particular one-off licence fees, would be significantly reduced in 2010 as the business model gradually moves more towards SaaS. This move will ultimately increase the quality of our earnings but it is not clear in discussions with current potential customers how quickly this migration to the SaaS model will be adopted.
Our enhanced technology platform, Enterprise, has been implemented in both France and Spain. Having seen the positive effects of this roll-out in these regions, the Group has made a strategic decision to change the order of the remaining regional roll-out. It is now our intention to roll-out next in Germany - a region that requires the greatest functionality and a move that will give the largest cost benefit to the Group in 2011. The UK, which will now include significant enhancement for a new customer revenue stream will follow Germany. The full cost benefit from implementation in these regions will be seen in 2011.
Financial Review
Total revenue for the six months was £76.9m of which £67.6m, representing 88% is outsourcing revenue (H1 2009: 83%). On a constant currency basis, overall revenue has declined by 3%. The decline in constant currency terms is due to the reduction in software related revenues which fell 26% at constant currency. Outsourcing revenues at constant currency increased by 2%. There is no acquisition related revenue in either period.
Adjusted profit before tax has decreased to £2.5m (H1 2009: £4.9m). This reduction is due primarily to the reduction in high margin software revenue and H1 2009 also included a significant foreign exchange gain of £1.2m (H1 2010: £0.3m).
Adjusted profit for H1 2010 includes a one-off gain of £0.8m relating to a change in accounting estimates in relation to administration fees recognised in the Group's property subsidence 減退 division. Management believe this change is necessary to better reflect revenue in line with service delivered over the lifecycle of a claim. Substantial growth is anticipated in this area over the next twelve months and hence the change now will better reflect the timing of future profits in line with accounting standards. This is detailed under critical accounting estimates and judgements in note 1. Included within finance income is £0.8m relating to the write back of a loan which was waived放棄 in the period.
The reported loss before tax of £1.0m (H1 2009: profit £1.4m) includes amortisation of acquired intangible assets of £1.8m (H1 2009: £2.0m), a share-based payment credit of £1.3m (H1 2009: charge £1.6m) and exceptional costs of £3.1m (H1 2009: £nil). Adjusted EPS is 0.17p per share (H1 2009: 0.46p) and basic loss per share is 0.29p (H1 2009: 0.01p). The Group full year effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 35% depending on the location of trading profits in the remainder of this year. The tax rate is higher than previous years due to the increase in profits expected from Germany and South Africa, both of which are tax paying regions with no tax losses available for offset against profits.
The share-based payment credit arose due to the number of options forfeited喪失 following the departure of the former CEO and several members of the senior Management team in the subsequent restructuring.
Exceptional restructuring costs are £3.1m (H1 2009: £nil). These costs relate primarily to redundancy costs in the Group's underperforming BPO regions of the UK, North America and Technology and are attributable to those regions as follows: UK (£1.2m), North America (£1.1m) and Technology (£0.5m). In addition the Group closed its loss making operation in the Netherlands at a cost of £0.3m. The Group expects to take a further exceptional charge of approximately £0.5m in the second half as final restructuring is completed. The total annualised gross cost saving is approximately £4.0m with the Group benefitting from a net saving on an annualised basis of £2.8m from the end of Q3.
In light of the rapid progress made in restructuring the business, the Board is now in a position to consider the Group's reduced property requirements in both the US and the UK. Though plans have yet to be formalised, we have identified annualised potential cost savings of up to £1.0m from 2011 relating to two leases. Should we pursue this strategy, the Company will incur a one-off exceptional charge in the second half of the current financial year of approximately £4.5m with the cash impact being spread over the remaining terms of the leases.
The gross cash balance at 31 March 2010 was £41.1m (H1 2009: £25.6m) with net cash of £22.3m (H1 2009: £1.6m). Operating cash outflow of £4.6m includes payment of prior and current years exceptional costs of £3.4m as well as a significant working capital injection into Germany of approximately £4.5m for the new payment process, as detailed at the time of the fund raising. After accounting for these items, cash to EBITDA conversion is approximately 85%.
In December 2009, the Group raised approximately £20.0m from shareholders. This cash has already been invested as planned to facilitate the new payment process in Germany, fund proofs of concept for large outsourcing contracts across our key geographies and to restructure the Group's underperforming divisions. At the end of May 2010, the Group will repay capital of ZAR 50m (£4.5m) from the Black Economic Empowerment loan. In addition, the Group has currently repaid in full, the £5.7m rolling credit facility although this facility remains available until July 2011.
Board Change
11 February 2010 I was appointed as Chief Executive Officer and David Thorpe assumed the role of Non-Executive Chairman.
Outlook
The Group's performance is historically weighted towards the second half of the year and this trend will be greater in the current financial year. The Board is pleased with the number of new proofs of concept already underway this year and with the conversion rate thus far. The restructuring program has also given the Group a lower cost base for the second half and beyond.
As a result, the Board remains confident that, unless there is further deterioration in economic conditions in our markets, full year results (before exceptional restructuring costs) will be in line with our expectations
Government Budget – who is effect the most?
Gov contracts
Contracts and projects will see the biggest cuts, with savings of £1.7bn targeted.
Around 70 big suppliers to the Government are believed to be expected to renegotiate deals. The Sunday Times reckons large IT suppliers, such as IBM and Hewlett-Packard, have been put on notice to reduce the value of their contracts by 20-30%.
Other companies with big public contracts that could face cuts or contract renegotiations include consultancy and outsourcing groups Capita (LSE: CPI) and Serco (LSE: SRP), security firm G4S (LSE: GFS) and Metropolitan Police vehicles manager VT Group (LSE: VTG).
Recruitment freeze
The civil service recruitment freeze will apply across all Government departments and agencies, saving at least £120m. With the Government targeting a further £95m of savings in IT spending, it's perhaps not the best news for a company like Parity (LSE: PTY), which is not only the number four public sector recruitment firm, but also the leading supplier of IT and Project Management staffing across the public sector.
Other cuts
There may be individual listed companies that will suffer from other cuts, although they don't spring immediately to mind -- or to my mind at any rate.
There are, or are likely to be, cuts in the £1.7bn advertising, marketing and media spend and the £0.5bn+ that the Government spends on taxis, flights and hotels, but with few companies in these areas specialising in public sector provision, these cuts will probably be absorbed across the sectors.
Additional spending
While most of the £6.2bn of savings has been earmarked to reduce public debt, a small proportion -- £500m -- has been earmark for spending.
Business will get £200m. Capital investment for colleges and social housing, are the other main beneficiaries, signaling a commitment that may be some relief to companies involved in these areas such as Kier (LSE: KIE) and Mears (LSE: MER).
Contracts and projects will see the biggest cuts, with savings of £1.7bn targeted.
Around 70 big suppliers to the Government are believed to be expected to renegotiate deals. The Sunday Times reckons large IT suppliers, such as IBM and Hewlett-Packard, have been put on notice to reduce the value of their contracts by 20-30%.
Other companies with big public contracts that could face cuts or contract renegotiations include consultancy and outsourcing groups Capita (LSE: CPI) and Serco (LSE: SRP), security firm G4S (LSE: GFS) and Metropolitan Police vehicles manager VT Group (LSE: VTG).
Recruitment freeze
The civil service recruitment freeze will apply across all Government departments and agencies, saving at least £120m. With the Government targeting a further £95m of savings in IT spending, it's perhaps not the best news for a company like Parity (LSE: PTY), which is not only the number four public sector recruitment firm, but also the leading supplier of IT and Project Management staffing across the public sector.
Other cuts
There may be individual listed companies that will suffer from other cuts, although they don't spring immediately to mind -- or to my mind at any rate.
There are, or are likely to be, cuts in the £1.7bn advertising, marketing and media spend and the £0.5bn+ that the Government spends on taxis, flights and hotels, but with few companies in these areas specialising in public sector provision, these cuts will probably be absorbed across the sectors.
Additional spending
While most of the £6.2bn of savings has been earmarked to reduce public debt, a small proportion -- £500m -- has been earmark for spending.
Business will get £200m. Capital investment for colleges and social housing, are the other main beneficiaries, signaling a commitment that may be some relief to companies involved in these areas such as Kier (LSE: KIE) and Mears (LSE: MER).
2010年5月21日 星期五
市场理性对待禁烟消息-頭條日報20100519
中國將於2011年1月1日起，所有室內公共場所，包括辦公室和公共車輛，將禁止吸煙。市場還是很理性地對待禁煙這單新聞，並沒有胡亂拋售跟國內香煙有關的股票。
如生產煙用香精香料的華寶(336)，從事卷煙包裝印刷的澳科控股(2300)及代理白酒及香煙的銀基(886)，
華寶估值長期高企，甚少被市場低估，沒有什麼買入的好機會。
行業門檻高。
對於煙草商來說，味道便是代表了它的品牌，如果牌子要換香精，甚至換香精供應商，那要冒極大的風險。
香精佔捲煙的成本比例遠比它的重要性為低。香精佔捲煙的成本不足2%，不過重要性卻非常高。故此，對於香精企業來說，議價能力十分高。以華寶為例，毛利率去到了70%多。
第三，產品需求十分穩定。吸煙比酒精的上癮程度還要強得多。因此，我們根本可以把香煙跟生活日常用品放在同一個籃子裡去想。
導致了煙用香精行業本身享有穩定收入、高毛利率的經營環境。
單是這樣的經營環境，已經夠吸引。
再加上華寶又是行業龍頭，是國內十大捲煙企業的香精供應商，故此長期二十倍以上的市盈率自然少不了。
華寶國際，因為公司業務將持續受益於政府對煙草行業的政策以及國內食品、飲料企業的強勁增長。其成本加一定利潤空間的定價模式使得食品價格上漲對公司的影響相對較小。並購及進入新的香煙原料業務的消息得到確認將成為短期內推升股價的催化劑
如生產煙用香精香料的華寶(336)，從事卷煙包裝印刷的澳科控股(2300)及代理白酒及香煙的銀基(886)，
華寶估值長期高企，甚少被市場低估，沒有什麼買入的好機會。
行業門檻高。
對於煙草商來說，味道便是代表了它的品牌，如果牌子要換香精，甚至換香精供應商，那要冒極大的風險。
香精佔捲煙的成本比例遠比它的重要性為低。香精佔捲煙的成本不足2%，不過重要性卻非常高。故此，對於香精企業來說，議價能力十分高。以華寶為例，毛利率去到了70%多。
第三，產品需求十分穩定。吸煙比酒精的上癮程度還要強得多。因此，我們根本可以把香煙跟生活日常用品放在同一個籃子裡去想。
導致了煙用香精行業本身享有穩定收入、高毛利率的經營環境。
單是這樣的經營環境，已經夠吸引。
再加上華寶又是行業龍頭，是國內十大捲煙企業的香精供應商，故此長期二十倍以上的市盈率自然少不了。
華寶國際，因為公司業務將持續受益於政府對煙草行業的政策以及國內食品、飲料企業的強勁增長。其成本加一定利潤空間的定價模式使得食品價格上漲對公司的影響相對較小。並購及進入新的香煙原料業務的消息得到確認將成為短期內推升股價的催化劑
東岳集團
內地最大 - 製冷劑生產商，內地市佔率六成，全球市佔率三成
含氟物高分子生產商
客戶 - 內地空調生產商──格力、海爾、美的，
海外空調生產商──LG 、三菱。
產銷
製冷劑業務 (收益53.8%)
含氟物高分子(主要產品為聚四氟乙烯、HFP) (收益17.9%)
有機硅 12.2%
冷劑業務
CDM專案規模國內領先
與日本新日鐵及三菱合作，發展全球最大嘅清潔發展機制（CDM）業務
氟硅材料行業
高技術、高性能、高附加稱為「黃金產業」，在工業、建築、電子、航空航天、汽車、民用。
耐高溫、腐蝕、老化及摩擦
用於各種電器護套, 防腐管材、電線電纜包複密封材料
09-八年開發的氯碱離子膜成功試產，過去只有美國杜邦及日本旭化等極少數國際大集團能夠製造
燃料電池核心材料，亦勢成未來新能源產品嘅重要材料支柱
有機硅
用作密封建築物、機場跑道、公路及玻璃窗等，可用作電力設施及電線的絕緣材料，汽車密封墊圈、輸油管及各種鍵盤按鍵的製作，還可用來製作高級化妝品、嬰兒飲食餐具製品。
業務收益
2009上述三種業務收益均告倒退，
分別下跌29.2%、25.2%、19.4%，至8.2、2.8、1.9億元人民幣
2009占67%制冷劑銷量與售價均跌，收入與溢利減幅近13%和25%
2009年度每股基本盈利為人民幣0.08 元。
家電下鄉 上游龍頭股份的前景
新環保、新材料、新能源構成的氟矽材料高新技術產業鏈
氟硅材料行業 And 有機硅 被國家和山東列為產業和科技振興規劃，鼓勵發展的戰略性新興產業
2009年擴建多個項目 - 提升生產一體化、市場競爭力和佔有率：
2009年集團的盈利空間被極度壓縮，第二季度開始好轉，集團部分產品出現供不應求的狀況。
6萬噸 - 甲烷氯化物擴建項目 (製冷劑主要原料) 2010 年5月底建成
國際市場上氯仿產能減產及停產，價格上升，預計不會有大的改善，投資擴建甲烷氯化物生產，保障製冷劑主要原料的穩定供應。
7,300噸產能高性能PTFE樹脂 (含氟聚合物產品) 2010 年8月底建成
國內在低端產品方面供應充足，但在高端產品方面卻是基本上處於空白，
國內需求強勁，每年需要大量進口，市場價格高約50%。
10萬噸有機硅單體擴建/ 15,000噸硅橡膠生產線 (加工) 項目 (將於2010年底投產)
受金融危機影響而暫緩建設的,在2009年底開始恢復建設，
為了增強有機硅產品的市場風險抵禦能力，集團新建硅橡膠生產線，增加有機硅單體的自加工能力，豐富產品品種。
由於上半年只錄得營業額與純利分別為15億元及6,300萬元，
下半年有20億元和稍逾1億元，顯示下半年複蘇。
含氟物高分子生產商
客戶 - 內地空調生產商──格力、海爾、美的，
海外空調生產商──LG 、三菱。
產銷
製冷劑業務 (收益53.8%)
含氟物高分子(主要產品為聚四氟乙烯、HFP) (收益17.9%)
有機硅 12.2%
冷劑業務
CDM專案規模國內領先
與日本新日鐵及三菱合作，發展全球最大嘅清潔發展機制（CDM）業務
氟硅材料行業
高技術、高性能、高附加稱為「黃金產業」，在工業、建築、電子、航空航天、汽車、民用。
耐高溫、腐蝕、老化及摩擦
用於各種電器護套, 防腐管材、電線電纜包複密封材料
09-八年開發的氯碱離子膜成功試產，過去只有美國杜邦及日本旭化等極少數國際大集團能夠製造
燃料電池核心材料，亦勢成未來新能源產品嘅重要材料支柱
有機硅
用作密封建築物、機場跑道、公路及玻璃窗等，可用作電力設施及電線的絕緣材料，汽車密封墊圈、輸油管及各種鍵盤按鍵的製作，還可用來製作高級化妝品、嬰兒飲食餐具製品。
業務收益
2009上述三種業務收益均告倒退，
分別下跌29.2%、25.2%、19.4%，至8.2、2.8、1.9億元人民幣
2009占67%制冷劑銷量與售價均跌，收入與溢利減幅近13%和25%
2009年度每股基本盈利為人民幣0.08 元。
家電下鄉 上游龍頭股份的前景
新環保、新材料、新能源構成的氟矽材料高新技術產業鏈
氟硅材料行業 And 有機硅 被國家和山東列為產業和科技振興規劃，鼓勵發展的戰略性新興產業
2009年擴建多個項目 - 提升生產一體化、市場競爭力和佔有率：
2009年集團的盈利空間被極度壓縮，第二季度開始好轉，集團部分產品出現供不應求的狀況。
6萬噸 - 甲烷氯化物擴建項目 (製冷劑主要原料) 2010 年5月底建成
國際市場上氯仿產能減產及停產，價格上升，預計不會有大的改善，投資擴建甲烷氯化物生產，保障製冷劑主要原料的穩定供應。
7,300噸產能高性能PTFE樹脂 (含氟聚合物產品) 2010 年8月底建成
國內在低端產品方面供應充足，但在高端產品方面卻是基本上處於空白，
國內需求強勁，每年需要大量進口，市場價格高約50%。
10萬噸有機硅單體擴建/ 15,000噸硅橡膠生產線 (加工) 項目 (將於2010年底投產)
受金融危機影響而暫緩建設的,在2009年底開始恢復建設，
為了增強有機硅產品的市場風險抵禦能力，集團新建硅橡膠生產線，增加有機硅單體的自加工能力，豐富產品品種。
由於上半年只錄得營業額與純利分別為15億元及6,300萬元，
下半年有20億元和稍逾1億元，顯示下半年複蘇。
2010年5月20日 星期四
駿威復牌股價瀉24%
廣汽集團與駿威汽車（0203）聯合公布，由廣汽私有化駿威。
廣汽集團並計劃7月底以介紹形式來港發H股上市。不過，在投資者對有關計劃存在多重疑慮，以及作價並不吸引下，令駿威昨日復牌後股價下跌超過兩成。 採訪：何承聲
持有駿威37.9%的廣汽集團，向駿威提出私有化建議，股東每持1股駿威，可獲0.37861股廣汽H股作交換，每股駿威股份代價的價值將介乎5.16至5.49元，以中間價5.32元計，較駿威停牌期間的除淨後價4.49元，有近18.5%溢價。
100股換37.8股廣汽
預期中的私有化計劃，股東將不會獲發廣汽H股的碎股。若建議生效，駿威將向聯交所申請撤銷上市地位，而同時廣汽正尋求以介紹形式，落實廣汽H股在本港聯交所主板上市。
英高財務顧問被委聘為廣汽股份估值提出意見。英高估計，於本周三（19日）每股廣汽H股估值介乎11.94至12.71元人民幣（相當於13.62至14.49港元），以私有化安排計算，駿威已發行的近75.19億股理論價值將介乎近387.71億至412.48億元。
不過市場卻有另一番解讀。凱基證券指，雖然按駿威財務顧問的估值，私有化價格對駿威有15至22%溢價，但從估值而言，廣汽今年市盈率達12.5至13.3倍，遠高於東風汽車（0489）的10倍。
券商指廣汽值10.93
假若以東汽目前的10倍市盈率，作為廣汽的估值指標，廣汽每股只值10.93元，低於英高的11.94元的估值下限；而以0.37861換股比例計算，駿威私有化價格只為4.14元，較其除淨後價4.49有近7.8%折讓，故有關作價並不吸引，建議趁高位減持。
此外，市場投資者亦憂慮廣汽上市後隨即集資。對此，廣汽集團董事長張房有強調集資非公司首要目標，目前亦無迫切的資金需求，公司現時盈利能力強，即使不上市及融資，亦能實現自然增長，他更揚言廣汽今年目標銷售按年增18%至20%。
廣汽集團董事會秘書兼執行董事盧颯表示，廣汽H股掛牌後，廣汽原股東並沒設有禁售期，但他強調，公司在掛牌後將會與股東繼續溝通，相信以駿威股東中機構投資者佔比較多底下，對駿威的投資屬長線，相信廣汽上市後，投資者仍會看好公司前景，繼續其長線投資。
假设下月举行的股东特别大会不通过，骏威继续独立挂牌，则其现在9倍以下的预期PE有足够的吸引力，股价亦有机会弹升。3.23港元的骏威，值博率高。
目前駿威汽車的股東包括：廣汽集團的全資子公司中隆（持有37.9％股權）﹔鄧普頓資產管理有限公司（持股15.47％）﹔鉑金投資管理公司（持股5.22％）。另外，駿威汽車的執行董事姚一鳴，以及獨立非執行董事張岱樞分別持股0.02％與0.04％。其餘約46.58％的已發行股份由公眾股東持有。
鄧普頓是駿威汽車的第二大股東﹐持有後者15.47%的股權。Mobius向該報表示﹐他希望在該交易前能獲得派息﹐但他認為估值比率是合理的。他還稱﹐鄧普頓持有足夠多的股權來阻礙該交易﹐但公司認為這一交易是明智的。]
廣汽集團與駿威汽車在聯合公告中透露，持股5.22%的鉑金投資管理公司已經做出承諾，將投票贊成私有化安排。目前，駿威通過全資附屬公司持有廣汽本田50%的股權。
如果此次上市成功，有關股東在上市後並沒有禁售期的限制，張房有說，目前主要股東是機構投資者，屬於長期投資，都看好集團的發展。
廣汽集團多年前已謀求上市，早於2002年就開始籌劃整體在Ａ股上市，並於2005年完成股權改制，不過無論是最早的A股上市方案，或者後來提出的Ａ+Ｈ、先Ａ後Ｈ等計劃，都受制於各種因素而不了了之。張房有強調，上市的最首要目標並非融資，目前集團也沒有融資的迫切性。如果此次整體H股上市未能得到6月份召開的股東特別大會的通過，廣汽集團也會尋求「在不同時間、不同市場上市」。張房有在記者會上表示，「首先要看本次在香港上市的情況，如果成功並獲得相當穩定的表現後，日後在擴大生產經營發展而有需要融資的時候，會考慮加快推進A股上市。」
去年以來，廣汽集團在國內大展拳腳，積極開展兼併重組以擴張規模。2009年5月，廣汽集團與長豐集團簽訂股權轉讓協議，長豐集團將其持有的長豐汽車（600991.SH）29%的股份轉讓給廣汽集團，廣汽集團成為其第一大股東。此後，廣汽集團又與菲亞特汽車簽訂合資協議，建立一家新的合資公司，第一期生產規模為14萬輛，之後為形成25萬輛的產能。2009年度，廣汽旗下的汽車銷量(除廣汽長豐外)合共60.66萬輛，與同年本地銷售冠軍上汽集團的279萬銷量相比，不到其1/4。數據顯示，駿威汽車2009年度股東應佔利潤約為19.15億元，2008年度則為20.94億元。
截至2009年底，駿威汽車的資產淨值約為142.56億元。廣汽集團預測，截至2010年12月31日的年度淨利將不少於37.6億元。與2009年度 32.56億元的除稅後利潤相比，增長15.5%。而在2008年度，廣汽集團的除稅後利潤為28.58億元。
交易人士相信，上市將為這家受益于對外合資的汽車企業，在未來擴張中贏得有利地位。但在目前，上市並非廣汽的當務之急，更重要的是體現“政治意義”。一旦上市成事，廣汽將成為廣東省首家在境外上市的國有企業，在目前粵港合作升溫的背景下，將被視為“在粵港融資合作方面邁出一大步”。成事與否，廣汽上市的“創新”都已是其多番上市訴求夭折，不得不另闢蹊徑的結果，也是其上市既不迫切，又勢在必行的寫照。
廣汽集團並計劃7月底以介紹形式來港發H股上市。不過，在投資者對有關計劃存在多重疑慮，以及作價並不吸引下，令駿威昨日復牌後股價下跌超過兩成。 採訪：何承聲
持有駿威37.9%的廣汽集團，向駿威提出私有化建議，股東每持1股駿威，可獲0.37861股廣汽H股作交換，每股駿威股份代價的價值將介乎5.16至5.49元，以中間價5.32元計，較駿威停牌期間的除淨後價4.49元，有近18.5%溢價。
100股換37.8股廣汽
預期中的私有化計劃，股東將不會獲發廣汽H股的碎股。若建議生效，駿威將向聯交所申請撤銷上市地位，而同時廣汽正尋求以介紹形式，落實廣汽H股在本港聯交所主板上市。
英高財務顧問被委聘為廣汽股份估值提出意見。英高估計，於本周三（19日）每股廣汽H股估值介乎11.94至12.71元人民幣（相當於13.62至14.49港元），以私有化安排計算，駿威已發行的近75.19億股理論價值將介乎近387.71億至412.48億元。
不過市場卻有另一番解讀。凱基證券指，雖然按駿威財務顧問的估值，私有化價格對駿威有15至22%溢價，但從估值而言，廣汽今年市盈率達12.5至13.3倍，遠高於東風汽車（0489）的10倍。
券商指廣汽值10.93
假若以東汽目前的10倍市盈率，作為廣汽的估值指標，廣汽每股只值10.93元，低於英高的11.94元的估值下限；而以0.37861換股比例計算，駿威私有化價格只為4.14元，較其除淨後價4.49有近7.8%折讓，故有關作價並不吸引，建議趁高位減持。
此外，市場投資者亦憂慮廣汽上市後隨即集資。對此，廣汽集團董事長張房有強調集資非公司首要目標，目前亦無迫切的資金需求，公司現時盈利能力強，即使不上市及融資，亦能實現自然增長，他更揚言廣汽今年目標銷售按年增18%至20%。
廣汽集團董事會秘書兼執行董事盧颯表示，廣汽H股掛牌後，廣汽原股東並沒設有禁售期，但他強調，公司在掛牌後將會與股東繼續溝通，相信以駿威股東中機構投資者佔比較多底下，對駿威的投資屬長線，相信廣汽上市後，投資者仍會看好公司前景，繼續其長線投資。
假设下月举行的股东特别大会不通过，骏威继续独立挂牌，则其现在9倍以下的预期PE有足够的吸引力，股价亦有机会弹升。3.23港元的骏威，值博率高。
目前駿威汽車的股東包括：廣汽集團的全資子公司中隆（持有37.9％股權）﹔鄧普頓資產管理有限公司（持股15.47％）﹔鉑金投資管理公司（持股5.22％）。另外，駿威汽車的執行董事姚一鳴，以及獨立非執行董事張岱樞分別持股0.02％與0.04％。其餘約46.58％的已發行股份由公眾股東持有。
鄧普頓是駿威汽車的第二大股東﹐持有後者15.47%的股權。Mobius向該報表示﹐他希望在該交易前能獲得派息﹐但他認為估值比率是合理的。他還稱﹐鄧普頓持有足夠多的股權來阻礙該交易﹐但公司認為這一交易是明智的。]
廣汽集團與駿威汽車在聯合公告中透露，持股5.22%的鉑金投資管理公司已經做出承諾，將投票贊成私有化安排。目前，駿威通過全資附屬公司持有廣汽本田50%的股權。
如果此次上市成功，有關股東在上市後並沒有禁售期的限制，張房有說，目前主要股東是機構投資者，屬於長期投資，都看好集團的發展。
廣汽集團多年前已謀求上市，早於2002年就開始籌劃整體在Ａ股上市，並於2005年完成股權改制，不過無論是最早的A股上市方案，或者後來提出的Ａ+Ｈ、先Ａ後Ｈ等計劃，都受制於各種因素而不了了之。張房有強調，上市的最首要目標並非融資，目前集團也沒有融資的迫切性。如果此次整體H股上市未能得到6月份召開的股東特別大會的通過，廣汽集團也會尋求「在不同時間、不同市場上市」。張房有在記者會上表示，「首先要看本次在香港上市的情況，如果成功並獲得相當穩定的表現後，日後在擴大生產經營發展而有需要融資的時候，會考慮加快推進A股上市。」
去年以來，廣汽集團在國內大展拳腳，積極開展兼併重組以擴張規模。2009年5月，廣汽集團與長豐集團簽訂股權轉讓協議，長豐集團將其持有的長豐汽車（600991.SH）29%的股份轉讓給廣汽集團，廣汽集團成為其第一大股東。此後，廣汽集團又與菲亞特汽車簽訂合資協議，建立一家新的合資公司，第一期生產規模為14萬輛，之後為形成25萬輛的產能。2009年度，廣汽旗下的汽車銷量(除廣汽長豐外)合共60.66萬輛，與同年本地銷售冠軍上汽集團的279萬銷量相比，不到其1/4。數據顯示，駿威汽車2009年度股東應佔利潤約為19.15億元，2008年度則為20.94億元。
截至2009年底，駿威汽車的資產淨值約為142.56億元。廣汽集團預測，截至2010年12月31日的年度淨利將不少於37.6億元。與2009年度 32.56億元的除稅後利潤相比，增長15.5%。而在2008年度，廣汽集團的除稅後利潤為28.58億元。
交易人士相信，上市將為這家受益于對外合資的汽車企業，在未來擴張中贏得有利地位。但在目前，上市並非廣汽的當務之急，更重要的是體現“政治意義”。一旦上市成事，廣汽將成為廣東省首家在境外上市的國有企業，在目前粵港合作升溫的背景下，將被視為“在粵港融資合作方面邁出一大步”。成事與否，廣汽上市的“創新”都已是其多番上市訴求夭折，不得不另闢蹊徑的結果，也是其上市既不迫切，又勢在必行的寫照。
Canaccord Research Portal - Rockhopper Exploration plc
Rockhopper Exploration plc
RKH:AIM : 172p
£300.6M
Speculative Buy
150 mgross oil column containing 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones, the thickest of which is 25 metres, with average porosity of 19% and "excellent" permeability in the main zone. Pre-drill, the best estimate of Sea Lion's reserves potential was 170 mmbbl: however, given that this assessment assumed a net oil column of approximately 30 metres and porosity of 23%, it seems eminently possible that this figure will be exceeded.
Impact
Yesterday's progress report gave us no cause for concern. Hence, we were surprised that Rockhopper's share price fell by over 18% on the news and regard this as an attractive buying opportunity.
Action / Valuation
Although there are reasons to believe Sea Lion could be bigger than the pre-drill best estimate of 170 mmbbl, for the time being we continue to use this figure as the basis for our valuation of Rockhopper. Allied to an oil price of US$70 per barrel flat real and a 15% discount rate, we estimate a field of this size would be worth 343p/share. In addition, our assessment of the expected monetary value (EMV) of the prospects that the company either will drill or hopes to participate in the drilling of over the next few months plus its remaining cash is equivalent to 90p/share. Based on this we reiterate our target price of 433p/share and SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.
* Certain research on the Canaccord Research Portal is produced by Canaccord Genuity Limited which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA).Where identified, this is non-independent research and a marketing communication under the FSA Conduct of Business rules.
RKH:AIM : 172p
£300.6M
Speculative Buy
150 mgross oil column containing 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones, the thickest of which is 25 metres, with average porosity of 19% and "excellent" permeability in the main zone. Pre-drill, the best estimate of Sea Lion's reserves potential was 170 mmbbl: however, given that this assessment assumed a net oil column of approximately 30 metres and porosity of 23%, it seems eminently possible that this figure will be exceeded.
Impact
Yesterday's progress report gave us no cause for concern. Hence, we were surprised that Rockhopper's share price fell by over 18% on the news and regard this as an attractive buying opportunity.
Action / Valuation
Although there are reasons to believe Sea Lion could be bigger than the pre-drill best estimate of 170 mmbbl, for the time being we continue to use this figure as the basis for our valuation of Rockhopper. Allied to an oil price of US$70 per barrel flat real and a 15% discount rate, we estimate a field of this size would be worth 343p/share. In addition, our assessment of the expected monetary value (EMV) of the prospects that the company either will drill or hopes to participate in the drilling of over the next few months plus its remaining cash is equivalent to 90p/share. Based on this we reiterate our target price of 433p/share and SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.
* Certain research on the Canaccord Research Portal is produced by Canaccord Genuity Limited which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA).Where identified, this is non-independent research and a marketing communication under the FSA Conduct of Business rules.
2010年5月19日 星期三
中國森林 00930.
中國森林 00930.
續約6%至$2.68，較歷史高位3.6元已跌逾20%，上市保薦人之一瑞銀與管理層了解後發表報告，指公司營運正常，且原木價格現時亦表現堅挺，因每年第二季為銷售高峰期。至4月底，中國森林銷量達30萬立方米，單計4月份超過8萬立方米。
除穩固的日常運作外，瑞銀預計中國森林將有更多利好因素出現，包括管理層購股權計劃、新收購、與一些大型國企簽訂新長期銷售合約等。
黃德几表示，中國森林<00930.HK>去年營業額7.94億元人民幣(下同)，按年升45.6%，撇除林業資產公平價值變動的影響，經營性盈利4.36億元，升81%。
2009原木銷量和平均銷售價分別為62.6萬平方米和1,267元，按年升20.4%和21%。截至去年12月底止，集團擁有17.2萬公頃森林的林權，主要位於四川及雲南，森林總蓄積量3,527萬立方米，其中90%樹木樹齡介乎18至60年，可供即時採伐。
中央去年10月底推出《林業產業振興規劃》政策框架，已列明育林費用將比現時調低50%，將有助降低集團伐木成本和提升毛利率；透過加快收購及提升採伐率，有利支持盈利增長。集團今年第三季前將完成上市前承諾，收購180萬畝(相等於12萬公畝)林地，今年2月份與雲南寧蒗政府達成協議，收購80萬畝林地，目前尚有100萬畝尚未完成，按每畝收購價不多於600元，今年資本開資約10.8億元。集團今年首季原木銷量15.8萬平方米，每立方米平均售價較去年底上升約10%。
以技術分析，去年12月18日陰陽燭圖呈「錘頭」低見1.73元後，以一浪高於一浪型態上升， 4月7升至3.6元高位後呈近似「穿頭破腳」利淡訊號，翌日裂口低開低收，期後一直在3元至3.5元水平?行整固，昨日以「大陰燭」突破上述底部阻力，快步隨機指數(STC)及14日相對強弱指數(RSI)未見反彈訊號，惟股價跌至保歷加通道底部後沽壓料減，可候低在2.8元水平吸納，上望3.5元，不跌穿2.6元可續持有。
續約6%至$2.68，較歷史高位3.6元已跌逾20%，上市保薦人之一瑞銀與管理層了解後發表報告，指公司營運正常，且原木價格現時亦表現堅挺，因每年第二季為銷售高峰期。至4月底，中國森林銷量達30萬立方米，單計4月份超過8萬立方米。
除穩固的日常運作外，瑞銀預計中國森林將有更多利好因素出現，包括管理層購股權計劃、新收購、與一些大型國企簽訂新長期銷售合約等。
黃德几表示，中國森林<00930.HK>去年營業額7.94億元人民幣(下同)，按年升45.6%，撇除林業資產公平價值變動的影響，經營性盈利4.36億元，升81%。
2009原木銷量和平均銷售價分別為62.6萬平方米和1,267元，按年升20.4%和21%。截至去年12月底止，集團擁有17.2萬公頃森林的林權，主要位於四川及雲南，森林總蓄積量3,527萬立方米，其中90%樹木樹齡介乎18至60年，可供即時採伐。
中央去年10月底推出《林業產業振興規劃》政策框架，已列明育林費用將比現時調低50%，將有助降低集團伐木成本和提升毛利率；透過加快收購及提升採伐率，有利支持盈利增長。集團今年第三季前將完成上市前承諾，收購180萬畝(相等於12萬公畝)林地，今年2月份與雲南寧蒗政府達成協議，收購80萬畝林地，目前尚有100萬畝尚未完成，按每畝收購價不多於600元，今年資本開資約10.8億元。集團今年首季原木銷量15.8萬平方米，每立方米平均售價較去年底上升約10%。
以技術分析，去年12月18日陰陽燭圖呈「錘頭」低見1.73元後，以一浪高於一浪型態上升， 4月7升至3.6元高位後呈近似「穿頭破腳」利淡訊號，翌日裂口低開低收，期後一直在3元至3.5元水平?行整固，昨日以「大陰燭」突破上述底部阻力，快步隨機指數(STC)及14日相對強弱指數(RSI)未見反彈訊號，惟股價跌至保歷加通道底部後沽壓料減，可候低在2.8元水平吸納，上望3.5元，不跌穿2.6元可續持有。
Antrim’s Q1 2010 results
To run through the report, the key points stated are:
Two new gas wells in Argentina drilled and cased
Conditional sale of 30% interest in Causeway
Average gas price in Argentina increased 29% to $1.85 per mcf over Q1 2009
Financial flexibility with strong cash position of US$ 29.4 million and no debt.
The above all sounds good but truth be told the Q1 results were not as good as hoped, with Argentina being the let down, mixed with the fact that even though they got a currency gain of $0.5m, their cash loss was still quite large at $1.8m.
In terms of how Argentina disappointed, it was not on the production front as that is steady at 1,800boepd as expected (down from 2,000 in the previous quarter), but on the revenue and cash flow front. The reason for this is because of a lower oil mix in production, revenues actually fell in Argentina to $3.1m from $3.2m from the same period last year, with cash flows also falling to just $0.2m from $0.3m.
This means that though Q1 2009 was the worst period in the credit crisis where oil and gas was at its lowest in price terms, and since that even though they have increased boepd by 245. They are in fact worse off now then back then, which is not good.
This is even more disappointing as it means that Argentina is still, rather than being a help, proving to be nothing more than a cash burning (albeit small –Argentina was cash flow negative to the tune of $1.1m last year) distraction, as it is providing little benefit to Antrim, even despite the strong rise in oil and gas prices (Argentina operates its own oil and gas pricing which is a lot lower than the market price, also exports are taxed very strongly). Though just a note, in terms of a comparison with the last period (Q4 2009), though the boepd is down from 2,000, with revenue also being down, in the last period they were cash flow negative thus this period is an improvement over the last.
Of course Argentina is only a small part of Antrim’s operations, and in fact is very small in comparison to their two main prospects, Fyne and Causeway. In terms of what this report highlights about the progress made on these since they last reported on them (which was about a month and a half ago). In reality they just reiterate that everything is going to plan and that they continue to work towards utilising these two assets with Causeway carried to production, and the search for a partner for Fyne and the FDP submission continuing as planned.
One point that was of interest was the mention that they had been active in the recent 26th offshore drilling round, and that they hope to hear the results in the second half. This of course could bring some good news for Antrim as it means that they have the potential to get some new exploration ground in the North Sea to add to their current, and hopefully they will get some good licences that may even complement their current licences.
But the most interesting part of Antrim’s Q1 report actually came via the statement on their current outlook, with the most interesting comments from it being the following
‘With the expectation that Causeway will be funded to production and with the intention to acquire a development partner for Fyne, Antrim's other North Sea activity will be weighted towards adding value by exploring for new hydrocarbons and appraising existing discoveries.
The Company will also concentrate on the high value production assets in Tierra del Fuego with a view to increasing production in a rising price commodity market. The Antrim team intends to grow the Argentine operation primarily through new in-country opportunities using the cash flow from existing Argentine operations.
Antrim is also considering other global exploration opportunities.
Antrim views the bilateral strategy as central to its corporate development, balancing longer term and capital-intensive investments in the UK North Sea with shorter investment cycle on-shore exploration and production opportunities
Antrim's daily production in Argentina is expected to average approximately 1,800 net boepd in 2010.’
The two most interesting comments from the above are that they only intend to use cash flow from Argentina to grow their Argentinean assets, though considering how small the current cash flow from their is it is hard to say how viable this may prove. Also the fact that they state that they are looking at other global exploration opportunities is a very interesting statement, especially as they state that they see shorter investment cycle on-shore exploration as key to their strategy.
Conclusion
To conclude yes the size of the cash burn was slightly disappointing, and yes the Argentina results were not what were hoped for. But the fact is Antrim have $29m in cash still, which even at their current cash burn rate could last quite a long time, Causeway is funded to production which should commence next year producing at first over 2,500 bopd net to Antrim, and if they can get Fyne online as planned then by 2012/13 they could be producing even after farming out a stake in Fyne net near 15,000 boepd. Hence even though there are risks involved for example like the fact that they still have to submit and gain approval for their FDP, and there is of course the risk that they get a poor deal on Fyne, and this does not even consider their troubled history (click here for more on their troubled history) and the normal risks involved in an oil and gas company.
Nevertheless at a market cap of £90m/$130m, the fact that in a few years time that they could be producing near 15,000 boepd, the majority of which oil, as well as potentially having 2p reserves of possibly 100mmboe. Plus if you add the fact that the potential for news flow over the next year or so should be strong. Then risk reward still looks good hence they still warrant a place in the potential company changing news section of ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’ (you can view ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’
Two new gas wells in Argentina drilled and cased
Conditional sale of 30% interest in Causeway
Average gas price in Argentina increased 29% to $1.85 per mcf over Q1 2009
Financial flexibility with strong cash position of US$ 29.4 million and no debt.
The above all sounds good but truth be told the Q1 results were not as good as hoped, with Argentina being the let down, mixed with the fact that even though they got a currency gain of $0.5m, their cash loss was still quite large at $1.8m.
In terms of how Argentina disappointed, it was not on the production front as that is steady at 1,800boepd as expected (down from 2,000 in the previous quarter), but on the revenue and cash flow front. The reason for this is because of a lower oil mix in production, revenues actually fell in Argentina to $3.1m from $3.2m from the same period last year, with cash flows also falling to just $0.2m from $0.3m.
This means that though Q1 2009 was the worst period in the credit crisis where oil and gas was at its lowest in price terms, and since that even though they have increased boepd by 245. They are in fact worse off now then back then, which is not good.
This is even more disappointing as it means that Argentina is still, rather than being a help, proving to be nothing more than a cash burning (albeit small –Argentina was cash flow negative to the tune of $1.1m last year) distraction, as it is providing little benefit to Antrim, even despite the strong rise in oil and gas prices (Argentina operates its own oil and gas pricing which is a lot lower than the market price, also exports are taxed very strongly). Though just a note, in terms of a comparison with the last period (Q4 2009), though the boepd is down from 2,000, with revenue also being down, in the last period they were cash flow negative thus this period is an improvement over the last.
Of course Argentina is only a small part of Antrim’s operations, and in fact is very small in comparison to their two main prospects, Fyne and Causeway. In terms of what this report highlights about the progress made on these since they last reported on them (which was about a month and a half ago). In reality they just reiterate that everything is going to plan and that they continue to work towards utilising these two assets with Causeway carried to production, and the search for a partner for Fyne and the FDP submission continuing as planned.
One point that was of interest was the mention that they had been active in the recent 26th offshore drilling round, and that they hope to hear the results in the second half. This of course could bring some good news for Antrim as it means that they have the potential to get some new exploration ground in the North Sea to add to their current, and hopefully they will get some good licences that may even complement their current licences.
But the most interesting part of Antrim’s Q1 report actually came via the statement on their current outlook, with the most interesting comments from it being the following
‘With the expectation that Causeway will be funded to production and with the intention to acquire a development partner for Fyne, Antrim's other North Sea activity will be weighted towards adding value by exploring for new hydrocarbons and appraising existing discoveries.
The Company will also concentrate on the high value production assets in Tierra del Fuego with a view to increasing production in a rising price commodity market. The Antrim team intends to grow the Argentine operation primarily through new in-country opportunities using the cash flow from existing Argentine operations.
Antrim is also considering other global exploration opportunities.
Antrim views the bilateral strategy as central to its corporate development, balancing longer term and capital-intensive investments in the UK North Sea with shorter investment cycle on-shore exploration and production opportunities
Antrim's daily production in Argentina is expected to average approximately 1,800 net boepd in 2010.’
The two most interesting comments from the above are that they only intend to use cash flow from Argentina to grow their Argentinean assets, though considering how small the current cash flow from their is it is hard to say how viable this may prove. Also the fact that they state that they are looking at other global exploration opportunities is a very interesting statement, especially as they state that they see shorter investment cycle on-shore exploration as key to their strategy.
Conclusion
To conclude yes the size of the cash burn was slightly disappointing, and yes the Argentina results were not what were hoped for. But the fact is Antrim have $29m in cash still, which even at their current cash burn rate could last quite a long time, Causeway is funded to production which should commence next year producing at first over 2,500 bopd net to Antrim, and if they can get Fyne online as planned then by 2012/13 they could be producing even after farming out a stake in Fyne net near 15,000 boepd. Hence even though there are risks involved for example like the fact that they still have to submit and gain approval for their FDP, and there is of course the risk that they get a poor deal on Fyne, and this does not even consider their troubled history (click here for more on their troubled history) and the normal risks involved in an oil and gas company.
Nevertheless at a market cap of £90m/$130m, the fact that in a few years time that they could be producing near 15,000 boepd, the majority of which oil, as well as potentially having 2p reserves of possibly 100mmboe. Plus if you add the fact that the potential for news flow over the next year or so should be strong. Then risk reward still looks good hence they still warrant a place in the potential company changing news section of ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’ (you can view ‘Grays Stocks to Watch’
AMINEX INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT - FIRST QUARTER 2010
The korea discussions look like the highlight of this update.
It could be just my cynical view - but it seems like AEX are intentionally being diligent 勤奮and prolonged with the SC testing and it wouldn't surprise me if they release news after the crucial farm in date has expired.
They've either found interesting results in several pay zones and want the partner to walk away from taking 50% of the next well - or they are calling their bluff恐嚇，嚇唬.
One thing is sure, this update feels very much like a 'holding' news rns.
They certainly don't appear to be trying too hard to please which seems a massive change from their start to the year.
Korea is a tease 逗弄 though and they are throwing that one in there for us to chew on.
In 6/7 months as they head towards likonde-2, I suspect the sp will be double today's price.
HUB
INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT - FIRST QUARTER 2010
USA
Shoats Creek: Oil production. Complex testing of multiple zones in the Olympia Minerals-1 well ("OM-1") is due to be finalised shortly, results of which will be announced as soon as available. Ninox Petroleum, through its subsidiary Black Tip Petroleum, has previously been granted an option to farm into 50% of Shoats Creek, the final exercise date for which is 25 June 2010. If this option is exercised, Ninox/Black Tip will effectively carry Aminex's share of the costs of the upcoming drilling programme at Shoats Creek. The location of the next well in the programme has not yet been determined and will either be a shallower well in the Frio or Cockfield sands or a deep well to test the Wilcox sands.
Alta Loma: Oil and gas production. The Joint Venture has voted to postpone making a completion in the "S" sand so long as production, even though now reduced, continues acceptably from the Upper Andrau formation. Locations for the next well, Sunny Ernst-3, are being evaluated by the operator, El Paso, which is conducting a re-mapping exercise of the property. Timing has not yet been determined.
South Weslaco: Gas production. No immediate further drilling plans.
Somerset: Oil production.
TANZANIA
Ruvuma PSA (Production Sharing Agreement): Results of the Likonde-1 well were announced to shareholders on 1 April. Likonde-1 provided strong indications of both oil and gas as well as encountering 遭遇 over 800 feet of reservoir貯藏 quality sands before drilling was halted 止步 due to a massive influx 流入 of gas below 3,100 metres and very high temperature readings. Previous wells drilled in the Ruvuma basin were located at considerable distances from Likonde, which was drilled as a first exploration well purely on seismic. The wealth of hard data now available from Likonde, still being analysed, should enable the Joint Venture to select a second drilling location with greater precision. This merits careful work which will take some time and a second well is likely early in 2011. Solo Oil, which participated in the Likonde well through farming into Aminex's interest, has now exercised its option to take up a 12.5% interest in the entire Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). Once the documentation has been completed, interests in the PSA will be:
Tullow 50.0% operator
Aminex 37.5%
Solo 12.5%
Nyuni PSA: As previously reported, Aminex is confident that approval for expansion of the gas plant at Songo-Songo Island and expansion of pipeline facilities is expected be granted
this will provide a sales route for gas to be produced from Kiliwani North under a formal development plan to be negotiated with the Tanzanian authorities. Given its proximity to the Songas terminal (about 2.5 kms in a straight line or 3 kilometres if a pipeline follows the existing road) Kiliwani North will be economically viable and should not require a second well. New mapping based on seismic acquired in 2009 shows Kiliwani North to be technically robust.
The outlying prospects are an order of magnitude 重大 larger than the discovery at Kiliwani North. The remapping exercise carried out, based on reprocessing of existing data and now integrated with the new data acquired over Kiliwani North, demonstrates potential for tying 系結 in much more substantial gas reserves to a hub at Songo-Songo Island based around the Kiliwani North discovery.
West Songo-Songo PSA: Progress has been limited so far on this prospective PSA, but Aminex considers it to be a valuable component of its Tanzanian portfolio. A discovery at West Songo-Songo in due course could be tied into the proposed gas hub based on Songo-Songo Island at Kiliwani North.
EGYPT
West Esh el Mellaha ("WEEM-2"): No definitive 最後的 result from the South Malak-1 well has yet been determined. The group has committed to a second exploration period of three years which involves drilling two further exploration wells. Aminex has a 10% beneficial interest in this property and its share of costs is carried through to first commercial production.
KOREAN PENINSULA
East Korea Bay Basin: A North Korean delegation is currently in London for the purpose of negotiating a new PSC covering exploration of the East Korea Bay Basin. Chosun Energy is now a 50% shareholder in Aminex's subsidiary for the region, Korex Ltd., and will become increasingly involved in the management of this project.
OILFIELD SERVICES SUBSIDIARY
Aminex's wholly-owned oilfield service and supply subsidiary, AMOSSCO, has been trading in line with expectation and will be supporting the next phase of drilling at Nyuni in Tanzania.
UPDATED DRILLING PROGRAMME
A revised drilling programme will be published when finalised.
FINANCIAL
Aminex issued its preliminary results statement for the calendar year 2009 on 1 April 2010. Trading during the first quarter has been approximately in line with expectations. Revenues have been lower than the comparative period in 2009 due to the anticipated decline in production from the Upper Andrau formation at the Alta Loma field but this has been partially offset by improved commodity prices. Other than equipment-related leases in the US, the Group remains debt-free.
Under the terms of a farm-in agreement, Solo Oil PLC has been paying 18.75% of the Likonde-1 well as well as contributing to back costs. On 22 April 2010, Solo gave notice of its intention to exercise its option to take up a 12.5% interest in the Ruvuma PSA and become a full party to the Joint Operating Agreement. On completion of the transfer of the 12.5% interest, Aminex's interest and share of future PSA costs will be reduced to 37.5%.
OUTLOOK
Tanzania is the current focus of Aminex's international exploration activity with upcoming drilling being planned on both the Nyuni and Ruvuma PSAs.
The completed seismic work and remapping exercise over Nyuni and the highly encouraging contingent 因情況而異的 resources evaluation, prepared independently and published with the 2009 Annual Report, are very encouraging for the future of this PSA. Nyuni is close to infrastructure in a stable African country where there is a growing market for gas. With one discovery already made and prospective resource volumes in excess of a trillion cubic feet of gas, Nyuni is a core asset in Aminex's portfolio which will be aggressively pursued.
The potential for the Ruvuma basin to become a new oil province in southern Tanzania following the drilling of Likonde-1 (operated by Tullow Oil) in the first quarter of this year opens up exciting upside for Aminex and further drilling will follow a detailed appraisal of the Likonde well.
At Shoats Creek, Louisiana, further drilling will follow the testing of the OM-1 well drilled this year, with interesting potential to be tested in the deep Wilcox sands mapped from recent 3D seismic. Further drilling is also anticipated at the Alta Loma property in Galveston County, Texas.
If a new PSA can be finalised with the government of North Korea for the East Korea Bay Basin, initial work will commence rapidly to take this large and prospective area to the next phase of exploration.
For further information please contact:
Aminex PLC +44 (0) 20 7291 3100
Brian Hall - Chairman
It could be just my cynical view - but it seems like AEX are intentionally being diligent 勤奮and prolonged with the SC testing and it wouldn't surprise me if they release news after the crucial farm in date has expired.
They've either found interesting results in several pay zones and want the partner to walk away from taking 50% of the next well - or they are calling their bluff恐嚇，嚇唬.
One thing is sure, this update feels very much like a 'holding' news rns.
They certainly don't appear to be trying too hard to please which seems a massive change from their start to the year.
Korea is a tease 逗弄 though and they are throwing that one in there for us to chew on.
In 6/7 months as they head towards likonde-2, I suspect the sp will be double today's price.
HUB
INTERIM MANAGEMENT STATEMENT - FIRST QUARTER 2010
USA
Shoats Creek: Oil production. Complex testing of multiple zones in the Olympia Minerals-1 well ("OM-1") is due to be finalised shortly, results of which will be announced as soon as available. Ninox Petroleum, through its subsidiary Black Tip Petroleum, has previously been granted an option to farm into 50% of Shoats Creek, the final exercise date for which is 25 June 2010. If this option is exercised, Ninox/Black Tip will effectively carry Aminex's share of the costs of the upcoming drilling programme at Shoats Creek. The location of the next well in the programme has not yet been determined and will either be a shallower well in the Frio or Cockfield sands or a deep well to test the Wilcox sands.
Alta Loma: Oil and gas production. The Joint Venture has voted to postpone making a completion in the "S" sand so long as production, even though now reduced, continues acceptably from the Upper Andrau formation. Locations for the next well, Sunny Ernst-3, are being evaluated by the operator, El Paso, which is conducting a re-mapping exercise of the property. Timing has not yet been determined.
South Weslaco: Gas production. No immediate further drilling plans.
Somerset: Oil production.
TANZANIA
Ruvuma PSA (Production Sharing Agreement): Results of the Likonde-1 well were announced to shareholders on 1 April. Likonde-1 provided strong indications of both oil and gas as well as encountering 遭遇 over 800 feet of reservoir貯藏 quality sands before drilling was halted 止步 due to a massive influx 流入 of gas below 3,100 metres and very high temperature readings. Previous wells drilled in the Ruvuma basin were located at considerable distances from Likonde, which was drilled as a first exploration well purely on seismic. The wealth of hard data now available from Likonde, still being analysed, should enable the Joint Venture to select a second drilling location with greater precision. This merits careful work which will take some time and a second well is likely early in 2011. Solo Oil, which participated in the Likonde well through farming into Aminex's interest, has now exercised its option to take up a 12.5% interest in the entire Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement (PSA). Once the documentation has been completed, interests in the PSA will be:
Tullow 50.0% operator
Aminex 37.5%
Solo 12.5%
Nyuni PSA: As previously reported, Aminex is confident that approval for expansion of the gas plant at Songo-Songo Island and expansion of pipeline facilities is expected be granted
this will provide a sales route for gas to be produced from Kiliwani North under a formal development plan to be negotiated with the Tanzanian authorities. Given its proximity to the Songas terminal (about 2.5 kms in a straight line or 3 kilometres if a pipeline follows the existing road) Kiliwani North will be economically viable and should not require a second well. New mapping based on seismic acquired in 2009 shows Kiliwani North to be technically robust.
The outlying prospects are an order of magnitude 重大 larger than the discovery at Kiliwani North. The remapping exercise carried out, based on reprocessing of existing data and now integrated with the new data acquired over Kiliwani North, demonstrates potential for tying 系結 in much more substantial gas reserves to a hub at Songo-Songo Island based around the Kiliwani North discovery.
West Songo-Songo PSA: Progress has been limited so far on this prospective PSA, but Aminex considers it to be a valuable component of its Tanzanian portfolio. A discovery at West Songo-Songo in due course could be tied into the proposed gas hub based on Songo-Songo Island at Kiliwani North.
EGYPT
West Esh el Mellaha ("WEEM-2"): No definitive 最後的 result from the South Malak-1 well has yet been determined. The group has committed to a second exploration period of three years which involves drilling two further exploration wells. Aminex has a 10% beneficial interest in this property and its share of costs is carried through to first commercial production.
KOREAN PENINSULA
East Korea Bay Basin: A North Korean delegation is currently in London for the purpose of negotiating a new PSC covering exploration of the East Korea Bay Basin. Chosun Energy is now a 50% shareholder in Aminex's subsidiary for the region, Korex Ltd., and will become increasingly involved in the management of this project.
OILFIELD SERVICES SUBSIDIARY
Aminex's wholly-owned oilfield service and supply subsidiary, AMOSSCO, has been trading in line with expectation and will be supporting the next phase of drilling at Nyuni in Tanzania.
UPDATED DRILLING PROGRAMME
A revised drilling programme will be published when finalised.
FINANCIAL
Aminex issued its preliminary results statement for the calendar year 2009 on 1 April 2010. Trading during the first quarter has been approximately in line with expectations. Revenues have been lower than the comparative period in 2009 due to the anticipated decline in production from the Upper Andrau formation at the Alta Loma field but this has been partially offset by improved commodity prices. Other than equipment-related leases in the US, the Group remains debt-free.
Under the terms of a farm-in agreement, Solo Oil PLC has been paying 18.75% of the Likonde-1 well as well as contributing to back costs. On 22 April 2010, Solo gave notice of its intention to exercise its option to take up a 12.5% interest in the Ruvuma PSA and become a full party to the Joint Operating Agreement. On completion of the transfer of the 12.5% interest, Aminex's interest and share of future PSA costs will be reduced to 37.5%.
OUTLOOK
Tanzania is the current focus of Aminex's international exploration activity with upcoming drilling being planned on both the Nyuni and Ruvuma PSAs.
The completed seismic work and remapping exercise over Nyuni and the highly encouraging contingent 因情況而異的 resources evaluation, prepared independently and published with the 2009 Annual Report, are very encouraging for the future of this PSA. Nyuni is close to infrastructure in a stable African country where there is a growing market for gas. With one discovery already made and prospective resource volumes in excess of a trillion cubic feet of gas, Nyuni is a core asset in Aminex's portfolio which will be aggressively pursued.
The potential for the Ruvuma basin to become a new oil province in southern Tanzania following the drilling of Likonde-1 (operated by Tullow Oil) in the first quarter of this year opens up exciting upside for Aminex and further drilling will follow a detailed appraisal of the Likonde well.
At Shoats Creek, Louisiana, further drilling will follow the testing of the OM-1 well drilled this year, with interesting potential to be tested in the deep Wilcox sands mapped from recent 3D seismic. Further drilling is also anticipated at the Alta Loma property in Galveston County, Texas.
If a new PSA can be finalised with the government of North Korea for the East Korea Bay Basin, initial work will commence rapidly to take this large and prospective area to the next phase of exploration.
For further information please contact:
Aminex PLC +44 (0) 20 7291 3100
Brian Hall - Chairman
2010年5月18日 星期二
銀泰百貨（1833）
浙江省經營百貨業，
2008年開始進軍湖北省和陝西省，
2010則開始進入安徽省。
去年底止經營21間百貨店，
浙江和湖北佔15間和5間，
陝西省1間 - 店齡較新
策略是以大型店為主，以去年底21間店舖、約82.5萬平米計算，平均面積接近4萬平方米，相當於銅鑼灣崇光百貨。
2安徽店將達18.2萬平方米，當中商場部分達10萬平方米，規模可跟本港時代廣場媲美，勢必成為當地地標之一。
銀泰快進盈利收成期
管理層解釋，百貨店開店3年才達收支平衡，銀泰2008年開店8間、2009年開店5間，意味多達13間分店仍處於耕耘期,07及08年的新店拉低了集團08及09年的盈利增長動力, 08年的店舖將開始於今明兩年進入收成期，當大部分店舖組合均進入收成期，純利增長速度勢必優於同業，股本回報率亦會得到顯著提升。去年店面增長亦達42%.
銀泰今年的開店速度，將進一步減慢至20%以下。事實從已公布的首季銷售數據得知，銀泰按年毛營業額增長47.5%，為已知百貨店中表現最佳者。
除了店齡較新，浙江省作為出口型省份，2009年經濟受到金融海嘯的影響亦較大，首3季度增長僅3.4%、6.3%和7.7%，表現遠遜其他地區。不過，內地首季出口爆升達28.7%，浙江省經濟和個人可支配收入亦自然可看高一線。
美林報告，以當前市價計算，銀泰所持店舖面積的資產淨值，與市值大致相若，意味銀泰百貨這個商標以及步入升軌的業務免費贈送.金鷹與百盛（3368）達資產淨值的2至3倍
以市帳率計算，銀泰2.9倍，兩大同業則7.3倍和6.2倍,美林在計算資產淨值時的假設，確實有根有據。
當然，資產價值多少視乎能創造多少現金流。綜合預測，金鷹和百盛2010年預測每股現金流為0.689元和0.518元，銀泰則為0.658元，表現絕不遜色。現價預測市盈率為21.6倍，較同業折讓10%至15%，中線有望收窄，為股價提供額外上升動力。
2010年預測市盈率 and PEG計算，銀泰(1833)鶴立雞群。
銀泰今年的開店速度，將進一步減慢至20%以下。事實從已公布的首季銷售數據得知，銀泰按年毛營業額增長47.5%，為已知百貨店中表現最佳者。
到了2012年自置物業比率將由現時的35%，上升至超過50%。
百貨業盈利表現，取決於經營者的成本結構、服務質量（並因之產生的品牌忠誠效應）、經營地點選擇而定。在成本結構方面，擁有自置物業者與租賃者的分別很大，經營邊際利潤較高，未來成本上升的壓力較小。沒有自置物業的百貨商店，在租金通脹之下難以生存，現時崇光百貨，表現一枝獨秀。若從這個角度看，自置物業股比少於20%的百盛及新世界可以首先被踢出局。
自置物業比率、
平均店齡及
邊際利潤率作分析，
應該首重質素，價格可以留待更佳時機。
營運效率計算，金鷹為百貨業中的冠軍, but PS, 企業價值, EBITDA 高於同業
其次為銀泰(1833)及春天百貨(0331)，
茂業(0848)營運效率欠佳及店齡較長，不應單單因為其業主身份而優先選擇經營效率較次者。
2008年開始進軍湖北省和陝西省，
2010則開始進入安徽省。
去年底止經營21間百貨店，
浙江和湖北佔15間和5間，
陝西省1間 - 店齡較新
策略是以大型店為主，以去年底21間店舖、約82.5萬平米計算，平均面積接近4萬平方米，相當於銅鑼灣崇光百貨。
2安徽店將達18.2萬平方米，當中商場部分達10萬平方米，規模可跟本港時代廣場媲美，勢必成為當地地標之一。
銀泰快進盈利收成期
管理層解釋，百貨店開店3年才達收支平衡，銀泰2008年開店8間、2009年開店5間，意味多達13間分店仍處於耕耘期,07及08年的新店拉低了集團08及09年的盈利增長動力, 08年的店舖將開始於今明兩年進入收成期，當大部分店舖組合均進入收成期，純利增長速度勢必優於同業，股本回報率亦會得到顯著提升。去年店面增長亦達42%.
銀泰今年的開店速度，將進一步減慢至20%以下。事實從已公布的首季銷售數據得知，銀泰按年毛營業額增長47.5%，為已知百貨店中表現最佳者。
除了店齡較新，浙江省作為出口型省份，2009年經濟受到金融海嘯的影響亦較大，首3季度增長僅3.4%、6.3%和7.7%，表現遠遜其他地區。不過，內地首季出口爆升達28.7%，浙江省經濟和個人可支配收入亦自然可看高一線。
美林報告，以當前市價計算，銀泰所持店舖面積的資產淨值，與市值大致相若，意味銀泰百貨這個商標以及步入升軌的業務免費贈送.金鷹與百盛（3368）達資產淨值的2至3倍
以市帳率計算，銀泰2.9倍，兩大同業則7.3倍和6.2倍,美林在計算資產淨值時的假設，確實有根有據。
當然，資產價值多少視乎能創造多少現金流。綜合預測，金鷹和百盛2010年預測每股現金流為0.689元和0.518元，銀泰則為0.658元，表現絕不遜色。現價預測市盈率為21.6倍，較同業折讓10%至15%，中線有望收窄，為股價提供額外上升動力。
2010年預測市盈率 and PEG計算，銀泰(1833)鶴立雞群。
銀泰今年的開店速度，將進一步減慢至20%以下。事實從已公布的首季銷售數據得知，銀泰按年毛營業額增長47.5%，為已知百貨店中表現最佳者。
到了2012年自置物業比率將由現時的35%，上升至超過50%。
百貨業盈利表現，取決於經營者的成本結構、服務質量（並因之產生的品牌忠誠效應）、經營地點選擇而定。在成本結構方面，擁有自置物業者與租賃者的分別很大，經營邊際利潤較高，未來成本上升的壓力較小。沒有自置物業的百貨商店，在租金通脹之下難以生存，現時崇光百貨，表現一枝獨秀。若從這個角度看，自置物業股比少於20%的百盛及新世界可以首先被踢出局。
自置物業比率、
平均店齡及
邊際利潤率作分析，
應該首重質素，價格可以留待更佳時機。
營運效率計算，金鷹為百貨業中的冠軍, but PS, 企業價值, EBITDA 高於同業
其次為銀泰(1833)及春天百貨(0331)，
茂業(0848)營運效率欠佳及店齡較長，不應單單因為其業主身份而優先選擇經營效率較次者。
Small Cap Shares introduction (14/05/2010)
Hambledon
Kazakhstan gold producer
Business
Increased the output of gold from its Sekisovskoye open-pit mine by 60%to 20,050 oz, average price for gold sold up 15.4 per cent at $974 (£636) an ounce. Near break Even
Silver production almost doubled to 46,050 oz.
Processing ore from third-party miners lacking the necessary equipment.
*Advisers suggest that the volume of this third-party ore could increase from 10,000 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes this year.
1Q 2010, produced only 2,579 oz of gold, a shortfall on 'exceptionally cold winter weather' in Kazakhstan.
Conditions have improved since late March and Hambledon produced 2,048 oz in April.
£1.5 million cash, intends to take mining at Sekisovskoye underground, where gold grades will be higher, with first extraction envisaged late next year. The company has renewed a $2 million loan facility from Russia's Alfa Bank until December 2012.
Floated at 5p six years ago, Hambledon shares reached 21.75p in 2007, but technical snags delayed progress and the price fell to 3.88p within the past year. Now 5.25p, the mak cap at £27.1 million.
Intrinsic value of this share will increase as the price of gold increases.
The fixed costs of a gold producer mean that any rise in the gold price has a greater rise in the profits of producing companies.
From last years accounts the coy made a small profit at an average gold price of approx £624 per oz. Approx £13mn turnover.
Today the gold price is £820 per oz approx. If hmb produce 2000+oz per month say average of 24000 over the year at an average gold price of 800, we are looking at turnover of £19.2mn on the same costs.
If the gold price or gold Ozs mined surprise to the upside this coy will be throwing off cash. L
ower grades and recovery rates are a problem but becoming less relevant to the profitability of this coy.
Gold grades will improve with depth, just check the drilling reports from 2004 onwards. A lot of the ore is graded 0.9 - 1.25 g/t but not too far from the surface, for example 31m below the surface is 23m grading 3.06 g/t. Others are higher, some lower.
The initial surface ore was always expected to be low grade and the company is busy at the moment widening the pit so they can get deeper. Patience.
Kazakhstan gold producer
Business
Increased the output of gold from its Sekisovskoye open-pit mine by 60%to 20,050 oz, average price for gold sold up 15.4 per cent at $974 (£636) an ounce. Near break Even
Silver production almost doubled to 46,050 oz.
Processing ore from third-party miners lacking the necessary equipment.
*Advisers suggest that the volume of this third-party ore could increase from 10,000 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes this year.
1Q 2010, produced only 2,579 oz of gold, a shortfall on 'exceptionally cold winter weather' in Kazakhstan.
Conditions have improved since late March and Hambledon produced 2,048 oz in April.
£1.5 million cash, intends to take mining at Sekisovskoye underground, where gold grades will be higher, with first extraction envisaged late next year. The company has renewed a $2 million loan facility from Russia's Alfa Bank until December 2012.
Floated at 5p six years ago, Hambledon shares reached 21.75p in 2007, but technical snags delayed progress and the price fell to 3.88p within the past year. Now 5.25p, the mak cap at £27.1 million.
Intrinsic value of this share will increase as the price of gold increases.
The fixed costs of a gold producer mean that any rise in the gold price has a greater rise in the profits of producing companies.
From last years accounts the coy made a small profit at an average gold price of approx £624 per oz. Approx £13mn turnover.
Today the gold price is £820 per oz approx. If hmb produce 2000+oz per month say average of 24000 over the year at an average gold price of 800, we are looking at turnover of £19.2mn on the same costs.
If the gold price or gold Ozs mined surprise to the upside this coy will be throwing off cash. L
ower grades and recovery rates are a problem but becoming less relevant to the profitability of this coy.
Gold grades will improve with depth, just check the drilling reports from 2004 onwards. A lot of the ore is graded 0.9 - 1.25 g/t but not too far from the surface, for example 31m below the surface is 23m grading 3.06 g/t. Others are higher, some lower.
The initial surface ore was always expected to be low grade and the company is busy at the moment widening the pit so they can get deeper. Patience.
2010年5月17日 星期一
超市易轉嫁成本成贏家
超市易轉嫁成本成贏家 2010-05-17
【明報專訊】通脹升溫，各類消費品物價調升，超市股擁有龐大網絡，易將成本轉嫁，有力成為通脹的贏家，業內份子華潤創業（0291）、京客隆（0814）及物美商業（8277）均是佳選。
華創網絡廣 龍頭有優勢
華潤創業龍頭。旗下的門市數目，截至09年底，華創在中港兩地共經營2800家店舖，包括「華潤萬家」（Vanguard）、「華潤蘇果」（Suguo） 及便利店「Vango」等，分店網絡大，佔整個市場的份額不低，在定價方面，自然有優勢。
去年年底，母公司把原屬「家世界」的75間大型連鎖超市店轉讓予華創，並以「華潤萬家」重新命名，令到分店數目進一步增加，聲勢浩大。
09年度「超市及物流業務」營業額增長12.5%至350.2億元，由於經營規模擴大，應佔溢利減少19.9%至2.81億元。而且，華創的啤酒業務，亦同樣受惠通脹升溫。集團持有的雪花啤酒品牌，以銷售額計算屬全國第一，較青島啤酒（0168）的銷售額還要大。啤酒產品的地域性很強，由於優質的啤酒需要使用當地最佳水源，產品不易受到外來品牌的挑戰，華創在市佔率強勁的省份，擁有牢固的優勢。以上周五收市價計算，華創的預測市盈率為24.1倍，麥格理訂的32.4元。
京客隆獲惠理增持
北方發展的京客隆 - 截至去年12月底為止，京客隆於全國擁有246家分店，2間為百貨商場、9間為大賣場、72間為綜合超市，以及163間為便利店。
最近數季的營運表現穩定，營業額保持平穩。通脹升溫，預期集團將會受惠，京客隆最近獲得惠理基金增持，有機構投資者捧場，給予小散戶多一份信心。而且，估值較低，預測市盈率為17.0倍，
物美擬轉主板發A股
上市超市集團物美商業（8277）主要經營地點在北京，主力經營大賣場、大型超市及便利店，同時亦有拓展天津與浙江市場，經營及管理的分店數目達到472間，116間屬大型超市、356間為便利超市，總銷售面積達到54.2萬平方米，近期的生意額亦相當穩定。
物美尚有兩個推動股價的因素。
第一，計劃轉往主板，提高知名度及地位；
第二，發行A股的可能性，倘A股市場轉旺，將可成為股價的催化劑。
上周五收市價計算，物美的2011年度預測市盈率為23.9倍.
【明報專訊】通脹升溫，各類消費品物價調升，超市股擁有龐大網絡，易將成本轉嫁，有力成為通脹的贏家，業內份子華潤創業（0291）、京客隆（0814）及物美商業（8277）均是佳選。
華創網絡廣 龍頭有優勢
華潤創業龍頭。旗下的門市數目，截至09年底，華創在中港兩地共經營2800家店舖，包括「華潤萬家」（Vanguard）、「華潤蘇果」（Suguo） 及便利店「Vango」等，分店網絡大，佔整個市場的份額不低，在定價方面，自然有優勢。
去年年底，母公司把原屬「家世界」的75間大型連鎖超市店轉讓予華創，並以「華潤萬家」重新命名，令到分店數目進一步增加，聲勢浩大。
09年度「超市及物流業務」營業額增長12.5%至350.2億元，由於經營規模擴大，應佔溢利減少19.9%至2.81億元。而且，華創的啤酒業務，亦同樣受惠通脹升溫。集團持有的雪花啤酒品牌，以銷售額計算屬全國第一，較青島啤酒（0168）的銷售額還要大。啤酒產品的地域性很強，由於優質的啤酒需要使用當地最佳水源，產品不易受到外來品牌的挑戰，華創在市佔率強勁的省份，擁有牢固的優勢。以上周五收市價計算，華創的預測市盈率為24.1倍，麥格理訂的32.4元。
京客隆獲惠理增持
北方發展的京客隆 - 截至去年12月底為止，京客隆於全國擁有246家分店，2間為百貨商場、9間為大賣場、72間為綜合超市，以及163間為便利店。
最近數季的營運表現穩定，營業額保持平穩。通脹升溫，預期集團將會受惠，京客隆最近獲得惠理基金增持，有機構投資者捧場，給予小散戶多一份信心。而且，估值較低，預測市盈率為17.0倍，
物美擬轉主板發A股
上市超市集團物美商業（8277）主要經營地點在北京，主力經營大賣場、大型超市及便利店，同時亦有拓展天津與浙江市場，經營及管理的分店數目達到472間，116間屬大型超市、356間為便利超市，總銷售面積達到54.2萬平方米，近期的生意額亦相當穩定。
物美尚有兩個推動股價的因素。
第一，計劃轉往主板，提高知名度及地位；
第二，發行A股的可能性，倘A股市場轉旺，將可成為股價的催化劑。
上周五收市價計算，物美的2011年度預測市盈率為23.9倍.
Falklands Oil – What Happen once Oil Was Found?
Once you have a find the region is reclassed as viable. That in itself raises the SP as its not a guessing game anymore.
Also, because there is oil that requires a local infrastructure, that also means that the operating costs for anyone else who strikes the black stuff also goes down-lower on costs/higher SP.
Then you have a factor that they all have shares in each other so there is a knock on effect there and the publicity itself increases purchases of equities in the falklands sector.
I am far more excited aout a second find as opposed to quality as then we are not talking about a one off coincidence (I dont think we are anyway). Also, there is a long way between reserves being found and first oil which coud take 5-10 years in my experience.
Oil as a commodity isn't bookable until you get whats called 'first oil' (the point at where a construction project turns into an operation-with defined costs and profits etc.) and its actually metered and tanked.
So the first find is juat the start of the story. Take Azerbaijan as an example, Amoco got in early as soon as it became an indempendant state, Bp then bought out Amoco and in the latter stages of the project (ACG/BTC.SCP an Shah Dinez gas) were pumping in 15Bn dollars per anum. But that's small potatotes compared to the 20 year lease they have on the field and 1m+ barrels per day.
The trick is once you have found it, to negotiate how long your extraction license is and then get it out as quick as you can. Also, BP got the world bank involved with loans (for ethcal resasons as they dont need the money) so there are loads of places to go for RKH to fund the jackets, topsides and infrastructure to get to first Oil.
The two things are important
1) flows well (which means they dont need water injection-extra cost, or to deal with the produced water-more cost and hassle)
2) there is a market for it, Also high quality could add a premium.
There is a lot to occur yet in terms of duties etc to be levied and what RKH will be left with per barrel, but I suggest we enjoy the ride because even if Enest is a flop or Toroa it won't have the same impct in the SP as Des when it drilled Beth.
BUT, the upside is massive because if they do hit lucky again, it makes all the CSEM stuff look reaslisitc and then the SP of everything will go seriously up.
The main reason for this is there are too many big investment funds etc, who literally model this (its a well know scenario) and can't afford to keep out of the action because the fund managers would get shot. At present they all have a healthy interest, but will likely act in unison like parhanas once more good news arrives.
Don't forget as well that all this talk of takeover is only potential...FOGL is 51% owned by BHP who are bigger than BP, and there is nothing stopping big players taking strategic stakes (in fact what Oil companies frequently do is lay off stakes in the project to other oil companies (like bookies layoing off bets) e.g in Azerbaijan BP had say 34%, CHevron 10%, Total 5% etc as it spreads the risk andthe reward.
but its all only to the good of the SP and the shareholders to have the risk and reward balanced and Major Shareholders wont see their potential diluted or equally ovr risk.
Hope this helps, but there is a long way to go and once they have a god idea of the size of the find it is likely they may lok for strategic partners, but thats what makes a successful project as its a huge undertaking to take all this risk on yourself..I am very positive..
Compositional analysis, oil distillation and gas C1 to C12+, GOR, salts, pour point, cloud point, viscosity, trace elements, metals, mercury, sulphur, water content (ppm), sediment, calorific value, copper corrosion, asphaltenes, naptha and of course, density and associated specific gravity and API gravity.........................can be measured concurrently (depending on resources) and within 24 hours.
Do them all three times to ensure repeatability (unusual and dependent on the number of pressurized downhole samples actually taken) - 3 days.
We are not waiting 10 days for analytical estimations.
Now, we may be waiting for the time taken for the samples to reach the laboratory and subsequent to analyses, full understanding of what's down there.........but my guess is that we are waiting 10 days to do all of this and for RKH to gather their thoughts and have everything put in place before they tell us exactly what they plan to do next - AFTER they have made the appropriate arrangements to do them.
What I am not sure about is whether or not RKH will be in a position to give even an approximate recoverable figure without a well test - that's for our resident reservoir engineers and geologists to say - it would be nice if they were"
API test is done quickly (densitometer - Kyoto, Anton Parr etc). There are a dozen different factors making up a good crude and the API Gravity which is no more than the density at 15 centigrade after conversions are applied, is not the be all and end all of everything.
A waxy crude could be a nightmare for example. There may also be several labs involved in specialist angles of analyses - depending on the suite of RKH requirements.
One thing's for sure. 24 hours after the arrival at the NAMAS Lab, the general properties of this crude will be known.
Also, because there is oil that requires a local infrastructure, that also means that the operating costs for anyone else who strikes the black stuff also goes down-lower on costs/higher SP.
Then you have a factor that they all have shares in each other so there is a knock on effect there and the publicity itself increases purchases of equities in the falklands sector.
I am far more excited aout a second find as opposed to quality as then we are not talking about a one off coincidence (I dont think we are anyway). Also, there is a long way between reserves being found and first oil which coud take 5-10 years in my experience.
Oil as a commodity isn't bookable until you get whats called 'first oil' (the point at where a construction project turns into an operation-with defined costs and profits etc.) and its actually metered and tanked.
So the first find is juat the start of the story. Take Azerbaijan as an example, Amoco got in early as soon as it became an indempendant state, Bp then bought out Amoco and in the latter stages of the project (ACG/BTC.SCP an Shah Dinez gas) were pumping in 15Bn dollars per anum. But that's small potatotes compared to the 20 year lease they have on the field and 1m+ barrels per day.
The trick is once you have found it, to negotiate how long your extraction license is and then get it out as quick as you can. Also, BP got the world bank involved with loans (for ethcal resasons as they dont need the money) so there are loads of places to go for RKH to fund the jackets, topsides and infrastructure to get to first Oil.
The two things are important
1) flows well (which means they dont need water injection-extra cost, or to deal with the produced water-more cost and hassle)
2) there is a market for it, Also high quality could add a premium.
There is a lot to occur yet in terms of duties etc to be levied and what RKH will be left with per barrel, but I suggest we enjoy the ride because even if Enest is a flop or Toroa it won't have the same impct in the SP as Des when it drilled Beth.
BUT, the upside is massive because if they do hit lucky again, it makes all the CSEM stuff look reaslisitc and then the SP of everything will go seriously up.
The main reason for this is there are too many big investment funds etc, who literally model this (its a well know scenario) and can't afford to keep out of the action because the fund managers would get shot. At present they all have a healthy interest, but will likely act in unison like parhanas once more good news arrives.
Don't forget as well that all this talk of takeover is only potential...FOGL is 51% owned by BHP who are bigger than BP, and there is nothing stopping big players taking strategic stakes (in fact what Oil companies frequently do is lay off stakes in the project to other oil companies (like bookies layoing off bets) e.g in Azerbaijan BP had say 34%, CHevron 10%, Total 5% etc as it spreads the risk andthe reward.
but its all only to the good of the SP and the shareholders to have the risk and reward balanced and Major Shareholders wont see their potential diluted or equally ovr risk.
Hope this helps, but there is a long way to go and once they have a god idea of the size of the find it is likely they may lok for strategic partners, but thats what makes a successful project as its a huge undertaking to take all this risk on yourself..I am very positive..
Compositional analysis, oil distillation and gas C1 to C12+, GOR, salts, pour point, cloud point, viscosity, trace elements, metals, mercury, sulphur, water content (ppm), sediment, calorific value, copper corrosion, asphaltenes, naptha and of course, density and associated specific gravity and API gravity.........................can be measured concurrently (depending on resources) and within 24 hours.
Do them all three times to ensure repeatability (unusual and dependent on the number of pressurized downhole samples actually taken) - 3 days.
We are not waiting 10 days for analytical estimations.
Now, we may be waiting for the time taken for the samples to reach the laboratory and subsequent to analyses, full understanding of what's down there.........but my guess is that we are waiting 10 days to do all of this and for RKH to gather their thoughts and have everything put in place before they tell us exactly what they plan to do next - AFTER they have made the appropriate arrangements to do them.
What I am not sure about is whether or not RKH will be in a position to give even an approximate recoverable figure without a well test - that's for our resident reservoir engineers and geologists to say - it would be nice if they were"
API test is done quickly (densitometer - Kyoto, Anton Parr etc). There are a dozen different factors making up a good crude and the API Gravity which is no more than the density at 15 centigrade after conversions are applied, is not the be all and end all of everything.
A waxy crude could be a nightmare for example. There may also be several labs involved in specialist angles of analyses - depending on the suite of RKH requirements.
One thing's for sure. 24 hours after the arrival at the NAMAS Lab, the general properties of this crude will be known.
滯脹離我們愈來愈近
滯脹離我們愈來愈近 2010-05-17
【明報專訊】過去一周，人民銀行先發布了第1季貨幣政策報告，隨後國家統計局公布了4月份的國民經濟數據。這些數據顯示：這一輪經濟增長的高峰可能已經過去，通脹正由預期變為現實。中國經濟正處於一個短暫的「高增長、低通脹」時期，並正在向「低增長、高通脹」的局面靠近，宏觀經濟政策的選擇空間將愈來愈狹窄。以下逐一解讀增長、通脹和進出口這三個宏觀經濟指標，從而詳細解釋我的觀點。
第一個指標是經濟增長。經濟增長的速度正在逐月降低。4月份，規模以上工業增加值同比增長17.8%，低於3月份的18.1%，更低於1至2月份的 20.7%。這符合去年底以來的預期：今年的經濟增長率將逐季度降低。年初的經濟增長率可能會接近12%，最後一季度的經濟增長可能會降低到9%以下。
從增長的構成看來，當前的增長也是不可持續的。
一方面，當前的增長主要是靠政府、國內資本市場和外資推動。分經濟類型看來，股份制企業增長了19.1%，國有及國有控股企業、外商及港澳台投資企業也增長了17.6%和16.8%。集體企業只增長了12.0%。
另一方面，投資特別是房地產投資是當前經濟增長的主要動力，但當前的房地產投資不可持續。1至4月份，城鎮固定資產投資46743億元（人民幣‧下同），按年增長26.1%。其中房地產開發投資9932億元，增長36.2%。4月17日國務院關於嚴格控制部分城市房地產價格上漲的通知下發之後，房地產投資能夠延續多久成為一個問題。
樓市難持續成為經濟增長火車頭
第二個指標是通貨膨脹。目前通脹預期正在實現。去年7月我已提出，消費物價指數（CPI）將在9月到11月之間見底回升，隨後持續一年以上的上漲。儘管物價上漲將持續多久目前尚存爭議，前幾個月的經濟數據還是符合這一預期：今年前4個月CPI按年增長分別為1.5%、2.7%、2.4%和2.8%。統計局發言人稱：把CPI漲幅控制在3%以內仍然是可能的。CPI全年平均控制在3%，意味着CPI在今年底會在4.5%左右。
另外一個得到驗證的預測是通貨膨脹的類型。同樣在去年6月我就指出，從需求端開始的通貨膨脹已經不再容易發生，這一輪通脹會從資產和起源類商品價格開始，沿着產業鏈向下傳導。目前公布的數據也符合這一預期。工業品出廠價格4月份按年上漲6.8%（上年同月為下降6.6%），顯著高於居民消費價格指數。生產資料出廠價格4月份按年上漲8.5%，又高於工業品出廠價格。特別是其中採掘工業上漲30.9%，原料工業上漲13.6%。與之相比，加工工業只上漲3.3%；生活資料出廠價格按年上漲1.4%。
第三個指標是進出口，也是前4個月的經濟數據中的最大亮點之所在。波羅的海運費指數2月以來強勁反彈，顯示國際貿易強勁恢復。在這個大背景中，中國的進出口迅速恢復。4月份中國進出口總額增長39.4%，其中出口增長30.5%，進口4月份增49.7%。由於中國的外貿具有很強的出口加工性質，因此加高的進口往往意味着一個生產周期之後出口的大幅增加。
然而，出口的恢復也不是支持中國經濟復蘇的持續動力。一方面，進口增長的速度從4月份開始回落，顯示增長（以及3月上旬出現的逆差）不可持續；另一方面，當前的進出口增長伴隨着中國貿易條件的降低。第一季貨幣政策報告引用的數據顯示，第一季進口價格大幅上漲15.6%，出口價格下降3.1%。初級進口產品價格上漲更大。4月份能源的價格當月按年增長46.4%，金屬品、礦石價格增長44.2%。
保經濟長期增長 須推動體制改革
綜合上述，雖然正在「高增長、低通脹」之中的中國經濟沒有近憂，但是「低增長、高通脹」的局面正在形成。當前財政政策和貨幣政策趨於收縮有利於減消通脹的危害，但是，收縮性的短期經濟政策也會降低經濟增長預期。「滯脹」將把宏觀經濟政策的選擇空間壓縮得愈來愈狹窄。對付「滯脹」只能依靠長期政策。為了保明年的經濟增長，現在就應該大力推動經濟體制改革、儘快促進經濟發展方式轉變，從而及時啟動新的增長引擎，中國經濟才有可能順利渡過「滯脹」關。
吳慶- 國務院發展研究中心金融所 銀行研究室副主
【明報專訊】過去一周，人民銀行先發布了第1季貨幣政策報告，隨後國家統計局公布了4月份的國民經濟數據。這些數據顯示：這一輪經濟增長的高峰可能已經過去，通脹正由預期變為現實。中國經濟正處於一個短暫的「高增長、低通脹」時期，並正在向「低增長、高通脹」的局面靠近，宏觀經濟政策的選擇空間將愈來愈狹窄。以下逐一解讀增長、通脹和進出口這三個宏觀經濟指標，從而詳細解釋我的觀點。
第一個指標是經濟增長。經濟增長的速度正在逐月降低。4月份，規模以上工業增加值同比增長17.8%，低於3月份的18.1%，更低於1至2月份的 20.7%。這符合去年底以來的預期：今年的經濟增長率將逐季度降低。年初的經濟增長率可能會接近12%，最後一季度的經濟增長可能會降低到9%以下。
從增長的構成看來，當前的增長也是不可持續的。
一方面，當前的增長主要是靠政府、國內資本市場和外資推動。分經濟類型看來，股份制企業增長了19.1%，國有及國有控股企業、外商及港澳台投資企業也增長了17.6%和16.8%。集體企業只增長了12.0%。
另一方面，投資特別是房地產投資是當前經濟增長的主要動力，但當前的房地產投資不可持續。1至4月份，城鎮固定資產投資46743億元（人民幣‧下同），按年增長26.1%。其中房地產開發投資9932億元，增長36.2%。4月17日國務院關於嚴格控制部分城市房地產價格上漲的通知下發之後，房地產投資能夠延續多久成為一個問題。
樓市難持續成為經濟增長火車頭
第二個指標是通貨膨脹。目前通脹預期正在實現。去年7月我已提出，消費物價指數（CPI）將在9月到11月之間見底回升，隨後持續一年以上的上漲。儘管物價上漲將持續多久目前尚存爭議，前幾個月的經濟數據還是符合這一預期：今年前4個月CPI按年增長分別為1.5%、2.7%、2.4%和2.8%。統計局發言人稱：把CPI漲幅控制在3%以內仍然是可能的。CPI全年平均控制在3%，意味着CPI在今年底會在4.5%左右。
另外一個得到驗證的預測是通貨膨脹的類型。同樣在去年6月我就指出，從需求端開始的通貨膨脹已經不再容易發生，這一輪通脹會從資產和起源類商品價格開始，沿着產業鏈向下傳導。目前公布的數據也符合這一預期。工業品出廠價格4月份按年上漲6.8%（上年同月為下降6.6%），顯著高於居民消費價格指數。生產資料出廠價格4月份按年上漲8.5%，又高於工業品出廠價格。特別是其中採掘工業上漲30.9%，原料工業上漲13.6%。與之相比，加工工業只上漲3.3%；生活資料出廠價格按年上漲1.4%。
第三個指標是進出口，也是前4個月的經濟數據中的最大亮點之所在。波羅的海運費指數2月以來強勁反彈，顯示國際貿易強勁恢復。在這個大背景中，中國的進出口迅速恢復。4月份中國進出口總額增長39.4%，其中出口增長30.5%，進口4月份增49.7%。由於中國的外貿具有很強的出口加工性質，因此加高的進口往往意味着一個生產周期之後出口的大幅增加。
然而，出口的恢復也不是支持中國經濟復蘇的持續動力。一方面，進口增長的速度從4月份開始回落，顯示增長（以及3月上旬出現的逆差）不可持續；另一方面，當前的進出口增長伴隨着中國貿易條件的降低。第一季貨幣政策報告引用的數據顯示，第一季進口價格大幅上漲15.6%，出口價格下降3.1%。初級進口產品價格上漲更大。4月份能源的價格當月按年增長46.4%，金屬品、礦石價格增長44.2%。
保經濟長期增長 須推動體制改革
綜合上述，雖然正在「高增長、低通脹」之中的中國經濟沒有近憂，但是「低增長、高通脹」的局面正在形成。當前財政政策和貨幣政策趨於收縮有利於減消通脹的危害，但是，收縮性的短期經濟政策也會降低經濟增長預期。「滯脹」將把宏觀經濟政策的選擇空間壓縮得愈來愈狹窄。對付「滯脹」只能依靠長期政策。為了保明年的經濟增長，現在就應該大力推動經濟體制改革、儘快促進經濟發展方式轉變，從而及時啟動新的增長引擎，中國經濟才有可能順利渡過「滯脹」關。
吳慶- 國務院發展研究中心金融所 銀行研究室副主
食品價急漲 利雨潤旺旺 2010-05-17
食品價急漲 利雨潤旺旺 2010-05-17
【明報專訊】內地通脹由3月份的2.4%，提高至4月份的2.8%。其中食品類物價在4月升5.9％，較1至4月份平均數5.3％明顯上升，在經濟初現復蘇的情况下，食品價格上升的動力大。投資者可選具品牌優勢的食品股投資。
投資者須留意的是，並非所有的食品股可受惠通脹。食品加工行業中一些市佔率低的公司，受惠物價上升的效果可能很微。不過，知名品牌食品股由於管理優勢且有一定市場佔有率，跑出的機會大。雨潤（1068）及旺旺（0151）便是正路之選。
雨潤受惠併購 產能急增
本欄多次推介雨潤，過往表現亦沒有教人失望。雨潤的增長引擎主要來自兩方面：第一項是產能的大幅增加；第二項是產品售價保持堅挺。以09年度為例，雨潤的生產能力呈大幅增長。受惠於產能擴張，冷鮮肉及冷凍肉生產量大為增加，令營業額增至117.46億元。另外，深加工業務保持強勁的增長，令到銷量增長之餘，毛利率亦得以提升，表現不俗。
此外，預期豬價上揚，令集團整體產品銷售的單價可提升。一直以來，雨潤對成本轉嫁的能力皆不俗，特別是深加工業務，毛利率有望進一步拉闊。去年，集團整體的毛利率，便由13.0%提升至15.6%。
未來，雨潤續受惠併購其他地方之產能。由於地方政府邀請雨潤收購他們的屠宰設施，並承諾給予雨潤補貼，令到雨潤去年錄得為數4.25億元人民幣的一筆補貼收入，預計各地政府在優化屠宰設施質素的前提下，續會邀雨潤收購，當中的商機不容小覷。預期通脹升溫，雨潤是逢低吸納的佳選，估值方面，雨潤的每股預測盈利為1.17元，折合預測市盈率19.4倍，可於22.5元附近買入。
旺旺派息率高 穩陣看增長
此外，零食品牌旺旺亦是投資的好選擇。旺旺的主要收入來自3方面，包括米果類產品、休閒食品類產品以及乳品與飲料類產品。旺旺在內地的米果市場，擁有經營優勢。由於集團米果產品配方獨到，在神州大地擁有很大的市場佔有率。隨着內地居民日趨富裕，旺旺產品的需求不斷增加，集團亦擴大產能配合。
而且，旺旺的派息不俗。在2009年及2008年，集團的派息比率高達88%及98%，預期高息政策可持續，彭博綜合分析師預測，旺旺2010年的股息達0.158元。
本欄認為，旺旺將是通脹加快的受惠者，可於5.8元附近吸納（預測市盈率26倍），目標價可參考中銀國際的6.75元。
【明報專訊】內地通脹由3月份的2.4%，提高至4月份的2.8%。其中食品類物價在4月升5.9％，較1至4月份平均數5.3％明顯上升，在經濟初現復蘇的情况下，食品價格上升的動力大。投資者可選具品牌優勢的食品股投資。
投資者須留意的是，並非所有的食品股可受惠通脹。食品加工行業中一些市佔率低的公司，受惠物價上升的效果可能很微。不過，知名品牌食品股由於管理優勢且有一定市場佔有率，跑出的機會大。雨潤（1068）及旺旺（0151）便是正路之選。
雨潤受惠併購 產能急增
本欄多次推介雨潤，過往表現亦沒有教人失望。雨潤的增長引擎主要來自兩方面：第一項是產能的大幅增加；第二項是產品售價保持堅挺。以09年度為例，雨潤的生產能力呈大幅增長。受惠於產能擴張，冷鮮肉及冷凍肉生產量大為增加，令營業額增至117.46億元。另外，深加工業務保持強勁的增長，令到銷量增長之餘，毛利率亦得以提升，表現不俗。
此外，預期豬價上揚，令集團整體產品銷售的單價可提升。一直以來，雨潤對成本轉嫁的能力皆不俗，特別是深加工業務，毛利率有望進一步拉闊。去年，集團整體的毛利率，便由13.0%提升至15.6%。
未來，雨潤續受惠併購其他地方之產能。由於地方政府邀請雨潤收購他們的屠宰設施，並承諾給予雨潤補貼，令到雨潤去年錄得為數4.25億元人民幣的一筆補貼收入，預計各地政府在優化屠宰設施質素的前提下，續會邀雨潤收購，當中的商機不容小覷。預期通脹升溫，雨潤是逢低吸納的佳選，估值方面，雨潤的每股預測盈利為1.17元，折合預測市盈率19.4倍，可於22.5元附近買入。
旺旺派息率高 穩陣看增長
此外，零食品牌旺旺亦是投資的好選擇。旺旺的主要收入來自3方面，包括米果類產品、休閒食品類產品以及乳品與飲料類產品。旺旺在內地的米果市場，擁有經營優勢。由於集團米果產品配方獨到，在神州大地擁有很大的市場佔有率。隨着內地居民日趨富裕，旺旺產品的需求不斷增加，集團亦擴大產能配合。
而且，旺旺的派息不俗。在2009年及2008年，集團的派息比率高達88%及98%，預期高息政策可持續，彭博綜合分析師預測，旺旺2010年的股息達0.158元。
本欄認為，旺旺將是通脹加快的受惠者，可於5.8元附近吸納（預測市盈率26倍），目標價可參考中銀國際的6.75元。
林少陽 揀爆升股5心得
林少陽 揀爆升股5心得 2010-05-17
【明報專訊】2002年12月13日，著名專欄作家原復生（真名蔡東豪）在最後一篇《原氏物語》文章「料從哪裏來？」說，每日必瀏覽華富財經網站，尤其對上巿公司估值有疑難時，他第一時間想知道華富財經研究部主管林少陽的看法。2008年4月，林少陽離開華富，後來決定創業，2009年5月15日正式成立以立投資，現任董事總經理。
林少陽對投資分析的看法多有獨特之處。專業投資者很多都喜歡約見公司管理層，拿第一手資料，他則不喜歡這種有備而戰的會面，反而喜歡出席股東會，看看管理層在前前後後輕鬆的氣氛下真實的一面，自然流露的自信，可能預示着公司的增長。
訪問進行了兩小時，林少陽再顯示出多個獨特看法。作為價值投資法的忠實信徒，他竟告訴記者，不可不學技術分析，這是尋寶的其中一個關鍵；指數藍籌公司業務基礎穩健，不少人認為是最好的投資，林少陽卻不認同；他又認為，一個行業即使優秀企業輩出，如行業無巨無霸上巿，全行股價都「難有運行」。再三咀嚼林少陽的說話，記者總括出5大揀選爆升增長股的心得。
一．不要抗拒技術分析
林少陽拿王朝酒業（0828）做例子：「王朝酒業公布2009年業績時，技術走勢其實有點奇怪。它09年除稅前盈利2.12億港元，按年倒退2.3%，還要比一眾券商預期的中位數2.14億元低，表現如此，本來股價應該跌，它竟然升，就憑這個股價走勢訊號，我們就不能不細心看看這隻股份。」
林少陽分析說：王朝酒業其實行了很多冤枉路，被張裕和長城追過頭，它們的產品好，銷售方面卻只靠原有的網點，增長一直不理想。」細心研究後才發現王朝正大力改革銷售體系，「以前可能一個地區只有一個分銷商，現在會引入競爭，做得不好的會被淘汰，結果它的銷售去年9月起不斷改善。今年2月，引入Jean-Marie Laborde做非執行董事，這人曾任國際香檳集團Moet et Chandon的主席及行政總裁。王朝之後在銷售上有很多突破，包括會搞試酒會，在尖沙嘴海旁又掛了一個大大的廣告，我問他們是否想打入香港巿場，他們說志在內地客。」3月底公布業績至今，王朝酒股價已升了近兩成。
總的來說，對於技術分析，林少陽的看法是：「我們不會什麼都知，什麼都看得透，股價技術訊號其實在告訴我們一些事情，我們不可忽略。」
二．成交弱行業 突有巨無霸上巿
「醫藥行業一向不乏優秀企業，可惜的是很多公司巿值太細，而且業務不容易明白，大行不太願意分配人手跟縱這行業，令醫藥股的股價長期落後。」
長期落後 優質股被炒起
林少陽指出，醫藥股由死寂到爆升的轉捩點，在於去年9月國藥（1099）上巿，「國藥巿值非常大（現時巿值逾780億元），而且正值醫療改革，它一上巿，隨即吸引大量基金注意，投資界投放在醫藥股的人力和物力多了，其他醫藥股都受到注意，優質股被發掘出來，進而炒起。」
彭博通訊社綜合了54隻醫藥股由年初至今的股價表現，平均升了14%，同期恒指跌了6.6%，國指跌了8.4%，醫藥板塊明顯跑贏大巿。
三．新政推出 全行生態改變
「大凡一個行業有新的政策出台，令全行業的生態改變，就該留意該行的相關股份，去年醫藥股就是一個好例子。」林少陽說。
醫療改革 醫藥需求大增
去年4月，國家公布《醫藥衛生體制改革近期重點實施方案2009-2011 年》，目標用3 年時間實現「全民醫保」，建立覆蓋城鄉居民的基本醫療衛生保險制度，最重要的，是此次醫改政府預計將投入8500億元用於改革，資金到位，才能加強實質購買力。
「這兒所講的行業生態變化，是指很多城鄉民眾，由無錢買藥、無錢看病，在國家的幫助下，變為有錢買藥和看病，全行業的需求大增。」
去年稍後時間，國家亦發布了《國家基本藥物目錄·基層部分》、《醫療機構配備使用基本藥物管理辦法》，投資者更可根據目錄，看看有沒有上巿公司生產相關藥品，輔助選股和預測盈利。
四．久歷行業周期 屹立不倒
林少陽說：「最好的例子就是ASM太平洋（0522），經歷了多個行業周期，仍有錢賺，仍然屹立不倒。說明這公司的團隊非常優秀，只要估值吸引，都值得考慮。」
ASM太平洋35年未蝕過
1975年，荷蘭人Arthur H.del Prado以5000美元，在香港創立ASM亞洲，委任林師龐為經理（當時公司唯一員工）。1988年，ASM太平洋在港上巿，招股價1.61元，集資1.36億元，巿值5.8億元。自1975年創立至今近35年，ASM太平洋從未蝕過錢，這就是公司難能可貴之處。這段期間，有數不盡的科技公司蝕錢、倒閉，而ASM仍然屹立不倒，還要成為半導體封裝設備業的行業老大。
五．不甘平淡不斷創新的企業
「我想提一提羅欣藥業（8058），公司原本生產原料藥、抗生素，生意穩定。管理層不甘平淡，開發系統藥，包括呼吸系統、消化系統藥，這些都不容易做，他們成功了。」2005年12月羅欣藥業以每股0.26元上巿，至今已升至接近10元。
4個「未曾」 羅欣出類拔萃
回顧往績，羅欣藥業有多個「未曾」：公司的總股數長年保持在6.09億股，上巿以來就「未曾」變過，說明公司絕無沾手拆股、供股、合股等財技，專注業務；
公司每股股息長年保持在0.02元人民幣，上巿以來就「未曾」減過，不會虧待股東；股本回報率07年以來「未曾」低於40%，股壇少見；2004年以來，盈利增長就「未曾」停過，即使經歷風聲鶴唳的08年下半年及09年上半年也是如此。難怪此股令林少陽刮目相看。指數藍籌公司業務基礎穩健，不少人認為是最佳投資。「其實，最有價值的投資不在這兒，好像內銀股，與宏觀經濟同步，買了藍籌股，最後可能與指數同步，或者贏指數，但現時最有增長的投資不在指數藍籌股。」
撰文：江偉明
【明報專訊】2002年12月13日，著名專欄作家原復生（真名蔡東豪）在最後一篇《原氏物語》文章「料從哪裏來？」說，每日必瀏覽華富財經網站，尤其對上巿公司估值有疑難時，他第一時間想知道華富財經研究部主管林少陽的看法。2008年4月，林少陽離開華富，後來決定創業，2009年5月15日正式成立以立投資，現任董事總經理。
林少陽對投資分析的看法多有獨特之處。專業投資者很多都喜歡約見公司管理層，拿第一手資料，他則不喜歡這種有備而戰的會面，反而喜歡出席股東會，看看管理層在前前後後輕鬆的氣氛下真實的一面，自然流露的自信，可能預示着公司的增長。
訪問進行了兩小時，林少陽再顯示出多個獨特看法。作為價值投資法的忠實信徒，他竟告訴記者，不可不學技術分析，這是尋寶的其中一個關鍵；指數藍籌公司業務基礎穩健，不少人認為是最好的投資，林少陽卻不認同；他又認為，一個行業即使優秀企業輩出，如行業無巨無霸上巿，全行股價都「難有運行」。再三咀嚼林少陽的說話，記者總括出5大揀選爆升增長股的心得。
一．不要抗拒技術分析
林少陽拿王朝酒業（0828）做例子：「王朝酒業公布2009年業績時，技術走勢其實有點奇怪。它09年除稅前盈利2.12億港元，按年倒退2.3%，還要比一眾券商預期的中位數2.14億元低，表現如此，本來股價應該跌，它竟然升，就憑這個股價走勢訊號，我們就不能不細心看看這隻股份。」
林少陽分析說：王朝酒業其實行了很多冤枉路，被張裕和長城追過頭，它們的產品好，銷售方面卻只靠原有的網點，增長一直不理想。」細心研究後才發現王朝正大力改革銷售體系，「以前可能一個地區只有一個分銷商，現在會引入競爭，做得不好的會被淘汰，結果它的銷售去年9月起不斷改善。今年2月，引入Jean-Marie Laborde做非執行董事，這人曾任國際香檳集團Moet et Chandon的主席及行政總裁。王朝之後在銷售上有很多突破，包括會搞試酒會，在尖沙嘴海旁又掛了一個大大的廣告，我問他們是否想打入香港巿場，他們說志在內地客。」3月底公布業績至今，王朝酒股價已升了近兩成。
總的來說，對於技術分析，林少陽的看法是：「我們不會什麼都知，什麼都看得透，股價技術訊號其實在告訴我們一些事情，我們不可忽略。」
二．成交弱行業 突有巨無霸上巿
「醫藥行業一向不乏優秀企業，可惜的是很多公司巿值太細，而且業務不容易明白，大行不太願意分配人手跟縱這行業，令醫藥股的股價長期落後。」
長期落後 優質股被炒起
林少陽指出，醫藥股由死寂到爆升的轉捩點，在於去年9月國藥（1099）上巿，「國藥巿值非常大（現時巿值逾780億元），而且正值醫療改革，它一上巿，隨即吸引大量基金注意，投資界投放在醫藥股的人力和物力多了，其他醫藥股都受到注意，優質股被發掘出來，進而炒起。」
彭博通訊社綜合了54隻醫藥股由年初至今的股價表現，平均升了14%，同期恒指跌了6.6%，國指跌了8.4%，醫藥板塊明顯跑贏大巿。
三．新政推出 全行生態改變
「大凡一個行業有新的政策出台，令全行業的生態改變，就該留意該行的相關股份，去年醫藥股就是一個好例子。」林少陽說。
醫療改革 醫藥需求大增
去年4月，國家公布《醫藥衛生體制改革近期重點實施方案2009-2011 年》，目標用3 年時間實現「全民醫保」，建立覆蓋城鄉居民的基本醫療衛生保險制度，最重要的，是此次醫改政府預計將投入8500億元用於改革，資金到位，才能加強實質購買力。
「這兒所講的行業生態變化，是指很多城鄉民眾，由無錢買藥、無錢看病，在國家的幫助下，變為有錢買藥和看病，全行業的需求大增。」
去年稍後時間，國家亦發布了《國家基本藥物目錄·基層部分》、《醫療機構配備使用基本藥物管理辦法》，投資者更可根據目錄，看看有沒有上巿公司生產相關藥品，輔助選股和預測盈利。
四．久歷行業周期 屹立不倒
林少陽說：「最好的例子就是ASM太平洋（0522），經歷了多個行業周期，仍有錢賺，仍然屹立不倒。說明這公司的團隊非常優秀，只要估值吸引，都值得考慮。」
ASM太平洋35年未蝕過
1975年，荷蘭人Arthur H.del Prado以5000美元，在香港創立ASM亞洲，委任林師龐為經理（當時公司唯一員工）。1988年，ASM太平洋在港上巿，招股價1.61元，集資1.36億元，巿值5.8億元。自1975年創立至今近35年，ASM太平洋從未蝕過錢，這就是公司難能可貴之處。這段期間，有數不盡的科技公司蝕錢、倒閉，而ASM仍然屹立不倒，還要成為半導體封裝設備業的行業老大。
五．不甘平淡不斷創新的企業
「我想提一提羅欣藥業（8058），公司原本生產原料藥、抗生素，生意穩定。管理層不甘平淡，開發系統藥，包括呼吸系統、消化系統藥，這些都不容易做，他們成功了。」2005年12月羅欣藥業以每股0.26元上巿，至今已升至接近10元。
4個「未曾」 羅欣出類拔萃
回顧往績，羅欣藥業有多個「未曾」：公司的總股數長年保持在6.09億股，上巿以來就「未曾」變過，說明公司絕無沾手拆股、供股、合股等財技，專注業務；
公司每股股息長年保持在0.02元人民幣，上巿以來就「未曾」減過，不會虧待股東；股本回報率07年以來「未曾」低於40%，股壇少見；2004年以來，盈利增長就「未曾」停過，即使經歷風聲鶴唳的08年下半年及09年上半年也是如此。難怪此股令林少陽刮目相看。指數藍籌公司業務基礎穩健，不少人認為是最佳投資。「其實，最有價值的投資不在這兒，好像內銀股，與宏觀經濟同步，買了藍籌股，最後可能與指數同步，或者贏指數，但現時最有增長的投資不在指數藍籌股。」
撰文：江偉明
2010年5月16日 星期日
環球數碼創意控股有限公司 8271
總部設在香港
全球發展以數碼內容為主的業務，包括
1)三維動畫創作及製作、
2)數字影院解決方案提供 (+多重数字广告牌)
3)動漫人才培訓等,
亞洲數碼內容產業發展的領導者。GDC是目前唯一一家可以满足亚洲影院运营商实现数字化转
换和提供三维数字电影的需求，并提供一站式解决方案的公司
中国地区的领先者，拥有80%的市场份额。超过三分之二的亚洲市场份额
1) 與歐美同業媲美的CG生產線，亞洲內容創意、設計和製作的領導者，獲得好萊塢及歐洲製片商、發行商的認可。
2) 全球領先的數字影院解決方案提供商，領先的數字影院技術，目前亞洲地區最大的數字影院伺服器供應商和全球第二大數字影院伺服器提供商。
3) 中國最早開展實戰型三維數字人才培 訓的機構之一，在業界一直處於領先地位，先後為國內外各大著名的動畫公司、遊戲公司等輸送了各種三維動畫專業人才、骨幹力量。
三維動畫創作及製作
中國乃至全亞洲最大的 CG製作公司之一，擁有完整的3D 製作生產線和生產控制系統，擁有國內最專業的創意小組、最領先的技術力量和卓有成效的國際化管理隊伍，成為國內唯一可製作大型3D動畫電視連續劇及電影的公司。2006年，發行了中國第一部3D動畫電影《魔比斯環》，
在產業全球化的背景下亦借力地緣優勢，不斷開拓國際市場，承接高端的三維動畫電影及電視劇的製作，年製作能力位居中國動畫行業的前列，成為重要的服務外包出口企業，客戶遍及美國、法國、義大利、 澳大利亞、比利時、約旦及香港等多個國家和地區，
近年來大力發展3D立體動畫及特效電影領域。2009年與中影聯合引進發行三維立體動畫電影《月球大冒險》，正式進軍立體動畫業，計畫製作三維立體動畫電影，搶佔中國立體電影市場的先機，推動中國立體動畫產業的發展。
數字影院解決方案提供
全球領先的數字影院解決方案提供商，為數字影片、銀幕廣告和其他數字內容的後期製作、發行和播放提供尖端技術解決方案，並擁有多項世界第一，包括第一家基於軟體發展數字影院伺服器的公司，第一家使用加密移動硬碟進行內容傳送的公司，第一家安裝2K多廳數字影院的公司，第一家推出四路連結數字影院伺服器的公 司。環球數碼是目前亞洲地區最大的數字影院伺服器供應商和全球範圍內第二大數字影院伺服器提供商。與美國好萊塢的電影製片廠包括派拉蒙，福克斯，環球，索尼和迪士尼等簽虛擬拷貝費(“VPF”)協定，作為亞洲地區大部分數字影院系統安裝的協力廠商。隨著3D立體 電影在全球的成功放映，帶動了數字影院設備的轉換熱潮，必將為環球數碼在數字影院領域帶來更大發展。
作為中國數字影院業的先驅，GDC在過去幾年裡佔據中國接近三分之二以上的市場份額
三維動畫人才培訓
經過十年的發展，人才培養贏得了良好的口碑，業界一直處於領先地位。 堅持為學員配備最先進的教學設備和教學服務， 目前，集團已在深圳、上海、無錫、重慶建立了培訓網路。十年來已先後為公司團隊及國內外各大著名的動畫公司、遊戲公司等輸送了近4000名三維動畫專業人才、骨幹力量，涵蓋三維數字圖像製作的各個環節。環球數碼培訓已成為目前國內三維動畫培訓最高水準的“代名詞”，也被稱為中國動漫的“西典軍 校”。
2010 三月
GDC 推出為第 2 代 DLP Cinema® 放映機而準備的新 SA-2100 數字影院伺服器
在 數碼內容製作方面：
1. 硬體設施精良，擁有中國最大CG製作水準最高的團隊及行之有效地管理流程；
2. 自行開發製作所需軟體工具，具有高水準的CG圖像及電影製作研發實力；
3. 通過培訓每年培養大量創作人才，是中國動漫業的人才供給源；
4. 管理層經驗豐富，並已在數碼媒體行業建立一定地位及網路，能夠與西方製作公司無間合作；
5. 在CG製作方面建立了性價比高, 保密度好, 遵守合同的業界信譽。
在數碼內容展示及發行方面：
1. 亞洲唯一且世界領先的符合好萊塢DCI標準之數碼影院伺服器；
2. 在全球院線數碼化的今天，我們的產品在中國，亞洲乃至世界市場已取得領先份額；
3. 擁有高穩定高靈活性的數碼影院技術，在全球已安裝了3000多台數碼影院伺服器。
在整個產業環境方面：
1. 我們正處在全球發展最快的消費市場 – 中國；
2. 業務拓展得到政府的強大支援；
3. 香港上市的公司，企業管理的國際化
集團超過68%之收益來自中國
數碼轉換技術將於未來五年完成，為數碼內容發行及展示分部帶來無限商機。
此外，我們根據與若干好萊塢主要製片商合作之虛擬拷貝費（「VPF」）安排，在亞洲（中國除外）發展數碼影院，標誌著我們一如既往承諾作為亞洲區放映商在數碼轉換技術方面之可靠夥伴，讓發行商及放映商獲得數碼影院之豐厚利益：優質不可降解拷貝、新項目機遇。（例如精良數碼立體電影、其他內容及衛星直播活動），大幅降低拷貝費、製作及物流成本，更可有效防止盜版。
*VPF﹙“虛 擬拷貝費”﹚計畫的符合DCI 規範的 數位影院設備採購協定。目前，GDC 與 許多主要好萊塢電影製片廠簽訂了亞洲地區數量最多的 VPF 協定，其中包括二十世紀福克斯、派拉蒙影業公司、索尼電影娛樂公司、環球國際電影公司以及迪士尼國際電影製片廠。由 於參與的製片廠將在特定時間內承擔符合 DCI 規範的數 位設備的費用，選擇VPF 計 畫的數位影院設備的運營商將因此受益
深圳市高新技術產業園區內興建總部大樓，於二零一零年下半年竣工。可擴充多媒體數碼內容及電腦圖像業務之研發及製作中心。屆時我們各分部之產能及效率亦將同步提升。
New Contract
GDC 伺服器
2010 -04 Movie Tavern 電影餐飲院線 76 台， 今年第二季度安裝
达拉斯市的Starplex Cinemas 99台 今年第二季度安装
2010-03 馬里蘭州R/C連鎖影院 42台 ， 第四季度全面完成。
浙江時代院線 100 台 已安裝了 27 台，將於今年年底全部完成
廣州金逸影視投資集團 200 台 這次合作延續在2009 年 2 月簽訂的100 台
Cinemas Guzzo（加拿大） 42台(新部署27台和替換4台） 3D 2010年3月開始
Cinemas Guzzo在今年之前將餘下11台非GDC的伺服器更換為GDC數字影院伺服器。
德克萨斯州领先的Santikos 院线 88台 正在进行中
印第安纳州院线Great Escape 174 2010 年初 (在美国签署最大的合同)
821 in 2010 so far
est +100 extra from 2009=930
2009-12 百老匯院線 19台 2010 End
UA 院線 20
RealD 的3D 平台 100 亚洲地区新增近100 套RealD 3D 设备的安装 (技術服務, 提供組裝及整合)
2009-09 英国电影制片商Working Title 1
Premiere 院线 (US) 99
浙江横店影视 20 三个月内
广州金逸珠江电影 100 未来18个月内
环球影院服务城公司 app 12
美国娱乐公司UEC app 100?
EPIC院線 25
2009-03 中国电影集团 100 台 未来三个月内
2009 -01 大地数字影院 2009 年中在中国完成100 台, 2010 年完成300 台
Around 750
自 2010 年1 月以來， 已收到數百份將第2 代放映機與 SA-2100 服器集成安裝的採購訂單。早在今年2 月份GDC 就開始發售第2 代 SA-2100 數位影院伺服器
2010-01 to 03 期間，超過八個在美國及 中國之新院線訂購本集團設備，作為其數碼轉換之用
2009 年4 協議下，GDC 作為 RealD 的代表，負責銷售諮詢、技術支援、設備維護、安裝、市場支援和當前經營。
2009-12 新簽約的客戶包括百老匯院線（香港），UA 電影院（香港），Blitz 影院（印尼），國賓影城（臺灣）和Shaw 電影院（新加坡），更多客戶正在計畫中。協定包括了新增近100 套RealD 3D 設備的安裝。
“自從作為市場領先者的RealD 首次推出新的3D 技術以來，我們見證了全球範圍內3D 數字影院顯著的發展，提供綜合的3D 數位影院解決方案。
在Cinedigm 第二階段的部署計畫中，GDC 數字影院伺服器將與巴可 (Barco) 公司提供的第2 代 DLP Cinema® 放映機集成使用。參與該計畫的劇院將成為Cinedigm Certified™數字影院聯網的一部分。
2009-05 GDC 已决定现有的全部 GDC的SA-2100 系列服务器将会在未来的软件升级中配备 RealD 的3D均衡技术功能，并自2009 年5月1日起交付内置此功能的服务器
2009-04 沃尔特·迪斯尼国际影片公司（简称“WDSMPI”）达成了针对亚洲影院运营商（“虚拟拷贝费”融资合作, 为GDC安装的符合DCI标准的数字电影设备其硬件成本提供财政资助.
2009-03 Ballantyne(BTN) 已获权在南北美洲安装GDC 的数字影院服务器
2009-03 Sonic (USA) 已获权在北美洲安装GDC 的数字影院服务器 (indenendent Cinema)
2008-03 李嘉誠投資
環球數碼創意<08271.HK>公布，接獲一份由X6D、X6D USA及XpanD提交予美國地區法院原訴狀，指控環球數碼所銷售之3D眼鏡侵犯版權、侵犯設計專利權、偽報貨物產地來源、不當使用商業機密、不公平競爭、違反合同及干擾他人合同及業務關係。
環球數碼正徵求法律意見及搜集資料，將適時再作公布。，銷售3D眼鏡 並非集團主營業務
全球發展以數碼內容為主的業務，包括
1)三維動畫創作及製作、
2)數字影院解決方案提供 (+多重数字广告牌)
3)動漫人才培訓等,
亞洲數碼內容產業發展的領導者。GDC是目前唯一一家可以满足亚洲影院运营商实现数字化转
换和提供三维数字电影的需求，并提供一站式解决方案的公司
中国地区的领先者，拥有80%的市场份额。超过三分之二的亚洲市场份额
1) 與歐美同業媲美的CG生產線，亞洲內容創意、設計和製作的領導者，獲得好萊塢及歐洲製片商、發行商的認可。
2) 全球領先的數字影院解決方案提供商，領先的數字影院技術，目前亞洲地區最大的數字影院伺服器供應商和全球第二大數字影院伺服器提供商。
3) 中國最早開展實戰型三維數字人才培 訓的機構之一，在業界一直處於領先地位，先後為國內外各大著名的動畫公司、遊戲公司等輸送了各種三維動畫專業人才、骨幹力量。
獲得了政府的認可：2007-2010榮獲“國家文化出口重點企業”；
“2007中國創意產業100強”；
“2009中國創意產業高成長企業100強”；
“2009中國100強 成長型服務外包企業”；
“中國最具價值動漫培訓品牌”；
“中國十大CG製作公司”；
“深圳市重點文化企業”；
“廣東省及深圳市文化產業基地”
中國乃至全亞洲最大的 CG製作公司之一，擁有完整的3D 製作生產線和生產控制系統，擁有國內最專業的創意小組、最領先的技術力量和卓有成效的國際化管理隊伍，成為國內唯一可製作大型3D動畫電視連續劇及電影的公司。2006年，發行了中國第一部3D動畫電影《魔比斯環》，
在產業全球化的背景下亦借力地緣優勢，不斷開拓國際市場，承接高端的三維動畫電影及電視劇的製作，年製作能力位居中國動畫行業的前列，成為重要的服務外包出口企業，客戶遍及美國、法國、義大利、 澳大利亞、比利時、約旦及香港等多個國家和地區，
近年來大力發展3D立體動畫及特效電影領域。2009年與中影聯合引進發行三維立體動畫電影《月球大冒險》，正式進軍立體動畫業，計畫製作三維立體動畫電影，搶佔中國立體電影市場的先機，推動中國立體動畫產業的發展。
數字影院解決方案提供
全球領先的數字影院解決方案提供商，為數字影片、銀幕廣告和其他數字內容的後期製作、發行和播放提供尖端技術解決方案，並擁有多項世界第一，包括第一家基於軟體發展數字影院伺服器的公司，第一家使用加密移動硬碟進行內容傳送的公司，第一家安裝2K多廳數字影院的公司，第一家推出四路連結數字影院伺服器的公 司。環球數碼是目前亞洲地區最大的數字影院伺服器供應商和全球範圍內第二大數字影院伺服器提供商。與美國好萊塢的電影製片廠包括派拉蒙，福克斯，環球，索尼和迪士尼等簽虛擬拷貝費(“VPF”)協定，作為亞洲地區大部分數字影院系統安裝的協力廠商。隨著3D立體 電影在全球的成功放映，帶動了數字影院設備的轉換熱潮，必將為環球數碼在數字影院領域帶來更大發展。
作為中國數字影院業的先驅，GDC在過去幾年裡佔據中國接近三分之二以上的市場份額
三維動畫人才培訓
經過十年的發展，人才培養贏得了良好的口碑，業界一直處於領先地位。 堅持為學員配備最先進的教學設備和教學服務， 目前，集團已在深圳、上海、無錫、重慶建立了培訓網路。十年來已先後為公司團隊及國內外各大著名的動畫公司、遊戲公司等輸送了近4000名三維動畫專業人才、骨幹力量，涵蓋三維數字圖像製作的各個環節。環球數碼培訓已成為目前國內三維動畫培訓最高水準的“代名詞”，也被稱為中國動漫的“西典軍 校”。
2010 三月
GDC 推出為第 2 代 DLP Cinema® 放映機而準備的新 SA-2100 數字影院伺服器
競爭優勢 |  |
1. 硬體設施精良，擁有中國最大CG製作水準最高的團隊及行之有效地管理流程；
2. 自行開發製作所需軟體工具，具有高水準的CG圖像及電影製作研發實力；
3. 通過培訓每年培養大量創作人才，是中國動漫業的人才供給源；
4. 管理層經驗豐富，並已在數碼媒體行業建立一定地位及網路，能夠與西方製作公司無間合作；
5. 在CG製作方面建立了性價比高, 保密度好, 遵守合同的業界信譽。
在數碼內容展示及發行方面：
1. 亞洲唯一且世界領先的符合好萊塢DCI標準之數碼影院伺服器；
2. 在全球院線數碼化的今天，我們的產品在中國，亞洲乃至世界市場已取得領先份額；
3. 擁有高穩定高靈活性的數碼影院技術，在全球已安裝了3000多台數碼影院伺服器。
在整個產業環境方面：
1. 我們正處在全球發展最快的消費市場 – 中國；
2. 業務拓展得到政府的強大支援；
3. 香港上市的公司，企業管理的國際化
集團超過68%之收益來自中國
數碼轉換技術將於未來五年完成，為數碼內容發行及展示分部帶來無限商機。
此外，我們根據與若干好萊塢主要製片商合作之虛擬拷貝費（「VPF」）安排，在亞洲（中國除外）發展數碼影院，標誌著我們一如既往承諾作為亞洲區放映商在數碼轉換技術方面之可靠夥伴，讓發行商及放映商獲得數碼影院之豐厚利益：優質不可降解拷貝、新項目機遇。（例如精良數碼立體電影、其他內容及衛星直播活動），大幅降低拷貝費、製作及物流成本，更可有效防止盜版。
*VPF﹙“虛 擬拷貝費”﹚計畫的符合DCI 規範的 數位影院設備採購協定。目前，GDC 與 許多主要好萊塢電影製片廠簽訂了亞洲地區數量最多的 VPF 協定，其中包括二十世紀福克斯、派拉蒙影業公司、索尼電影娛樂公司、環球國際電影公司以及迪士尼國際電影製片廠。由 於參與的製片廠將在特定時間內承擔符合 DCI 規範的數 位設備的費用，選擇VPF 計 畫的數位影院設備的運營商將因此受益
深圳市高新技術產業園區內興建總部大樓，於二零一零年下半年竣工。可擴充多媒體數碼內容及電腦圖像業務之研發及製作中心。屆時我們各分部之產能及效率亦將同步提升。
New Contract
GDC 伺服器
2010 -04 Movie Tavern 電影餐飲院線 76 台， 今年第二季度安裝
达拉斯市的Starplex Cinemas 99台 今年第二季度安装
2010-03 馬里蘭州R/C連鎖影院 42台 ， 第四季度全面完成。
浙江時代院線 100 台 已安裝了 27 台，將於今年年底全部完成
廣州金逸影視投資集團 200 台 這次合作延續在2009 年 2 月簽訂的100 台
Cinemas Guzzo（加拿大） 42台(新部署27台和替換4台） 3D 2010年3月開始
Cinemas Guzzo在今年之前將餘下11台非GDC的伺服器更換為GDC數字影院伺服器。
德克萨斯州领先的Santikos 院线 88台 正在进行中
印第安纳州院线Great Escape 174 2010 年初 (在美国签署最大的合同)
821 in 2010 so far
est +100 extra from 2009=930
2009-12 百老匯院線 19台 2010 End
UA 院線 20
RealD 的3D 平台 100 亚洲地区新增近100 套RealD 3D 设备的安装 (技術服務, 提供組裝及整合)
2009-09 英国电影制片商Working Title 1
Premiere 院线 (US) 99
浙江横店影视 20 三个月内
广州金逸珠江电影 100 未来18个月内
环球影院服务城公司 app 12
美国娱乐公司UEC app 100?
EPIC院線 25
2009-03 中国电影集团 100 台 未来三个月内
2009 -01 大地数字影院 2009 年中在中国完成100 台, 2010 年完成300 台
Around 750
自 2010 年1 月以來， 已收到數百份將第2 代放映機與 SA-2100 服器集成安裝的採購訂單。早在今年2 月份GDC 就開始發售第2 代 SA-2100 數位影院伺服器
2010-01 to 03 期間，超過八個在美國及 中國之新院線訂購本集團設備，作為其數碼轉換之用
2009 年4 協議下，GDC 作為 RealD 的代表，負責銷售諮詢、技術支援、設備維護、安裝、市場支援和當前經營。
2009-12 新簽約的客戶包括百老匯院線（香港），UA 電影院（香港），Blitz 影院（印尼），國賓影城（臺灣）和Shaw 電影院（新加坡），更多客戶正在計畫中。協定包括了新增近100 套RealD 3D 設備的安裝。
“自從作為市場領先者的RealD 首次推出新的3D 技術以來，我們見證了全球範圍內3D 數字影院顯著的發展，提供綜合的3D 數位影院解決方案。
在Cinedigm 第二階段的部署計畫中，GDC 數字影院伺服器將與巴可 (Barco) 公司提供的第2 代 DLP Cinema® 放映機集成使用。參與該計畫的劇院將成為Cinedigm Certified™數字影院聯網的一部分。
2009-12 New SA-2100A 包括了SA-2100 的所有功能例如CRU 即时播放或TMS 库应急播放、集成RealD“消鬼影功能”和支持隐藏式字幕功能。另外，它具备许多令人兴奋的最新功能，
2009-06 環球數碼創意科技有限公司SA-2100數位電影伺服器已做好4K準備
正在開發一種可以與德州儀器開發的新一代4K晶片相容的4K媒體模組。新產品將繼續擴展SA-2100系列數位電影伺服器的性能，並且計畫與4K DLP Cinema?同步問世2009-05 GDC 已决定现有的全部 GDC的SA-2100 系列服务器将会在未来的软件升级中配备 RealD 的3D均衡技术功能，并自2009 年5月1日起交付内置此功能的服务器
2009-04 沃尔特·迪斯尼国际影片公司（简称“WDSMPI”）达成了针对亚洲影院运营商（“虚拟拷贝费”融资合作, 为GDC安装的符合DCI标准的数字电影设备其硬件成本提供财政资助.
2009-03 Ballantyne(BTN) 已获权在南北美洲安装GDC 的数字影院服务器
2009-03 Sonic (USA) 已获权在北美洲安装GDC 的数字影院服务器 (indenendent Cinema)
2008-03 李嘉誠投資
環球數碼正徵求法律意見及搜集資料，將適時再作公布。，銷售3D眼鏡 並非集團主營業務
2010年5月14日 星期五
神華(01088)估值吸引維持買入評級，12個月目標價42.3元
中國神華公布2010年4月份經營數據，
煤炭產量按年下降1%至 - 1730萬噸，
煤炭銷量按年增長6%至 - 2330萬噸，
售電量按年增長63%至 - 110.4億千瓦時。
上個月相比，煤炭銷量和售電量按月增9%和3%。
首4個月，煤炭銷量和售電量按年分別增長12%和56%至8840萬噸和412.2億千瓦時，
相當於全年目標的32.5%和35.3%。
2、3月份價格急跌後，4月份秦皇島現貨煤價開始輾轉向上，4月份以來上漲幅度約9%。煤炭需求將進入旺季，未來數個月仍可能進一步上升。
神華第1季度銷售均價按年增長4%至每噸412.3元人民幣，經營利潤率升1.2個百分點至42.2%。公司新的銷售策略提高現貨煤比重，本行預計第2季公司平均價和經營利潤率仍會改善。
由於市場擔心中國政府緊縮政策會影響經濟增長，進而影響大宗商品如煤炭和有色金屬的需求，中國神華股價今年以來已經下跌17%。本行認為股價調整已經反映了緊縮政策的負面影響，現貨煤價的上升有正面推動。另外，作為中國最大的煤炭生產商，按著歷史趨勢，公司經營較同業具有防禦性。
本行2010年、2011年盈利預測維持在382億和412億元人民幣，每股盈利1.92元人民幣和2.07元人民幣，分別增長20%和8%。公司2010、2011年市盈率為14.6倍和13.5倍，本行認為估值吸引。維持買入評級，12個月目標價不變為42.3元，相當於2011年18倍市盈率。《國浩資本業務發展經理 張文強》
※ 筆者無持有上述股份任何權益
煤炭產量按年下降1%至 - 1730萬噸，
煤炭銷量按年增長6%至 - 2330萬噸，
售電量按年增長63%至 - 110.4億千瓦時。
上個月相比，煤炭銷量和售電量按月增9%和3%。
首4個月，煤炭銷量和售電量按年分別增長12%和56%至8840萬噸和412.2億千瓦時，
相當於全年目標的32.5%和35.3%。
2、3月份價格急跌後，4月份秦皇島現貨煤價開始輾轉向上，4月份以來上漲幅度約9%。煤炭需求將進入旺季，未來數個月仍可能進一步上升。
神華第1季度銷售均價按年增長4%至每噸412.3元人民幣，經營利潤率升1.2個百分點至42.2%。公司新的銷售策略提高現貨煤比重，本行預計第2季公司平均價和經營利潤率仍會改善。
由於市場擔心中國政府緊縮政策會影響經濟增長，進而影響大宗商品如煤炭和有色金屬的需求，中國神華股價今年以來已經下跌17%。本行認為股價調整已經反映了緊縮政策的負面影響，現貨煤價的上升有正面推動。另外，作為中國最大的煤炭生產商，按著歷史趨勢，公司經營較同業具有防禦性。
本行2010年、2011年盈利預測維持在382億和412億元人民幣，每股盈利1.92元人民幣和2.07元人民幣，分別增長20%和8%。公司2010、2011年市盈率為14.6倍和13.5倍，本行認為估值吸引。維持買入評級，12個月目標價不變為42.3元，相當於2011年18倍市盈率。《國浩資本業務發展經理 張文強》
※ 筆者無持有上述股份任何權益
2010年5月13日 星期四
Japan Leisure Hotels (LSE: JPLH)
caters for the significant demand in Japan for short-stay hotel facilities. The density of the urban population puts a premium on space and privacy.
These hotels attract a range of clientele from respectable married couples to those discreetly pursuing more illicit liaisons and backpacking tourists at the cheap end of the market.
There are around 25,000 such hotels in Japan, serving up to 2 million customers each day. The sector has proved remarkably recession-resilient. Annual turnover is estimated at £17bn and the average daily occupancy rate of around 250% is something regular hotels can only dream of.
It's a fragmented industry, with 90% of the hotels in chains of five or less, and since the bubble economy of the 1980s many have suffered from lack of investment.
Japan Leisure Hotels has seen the opportunity to buy up these distressed assets, invest in refurbishment and reap the rewards of what are highly cash-generative businesses.
The management
The company has a board of three non-executive directors, headed by Chairman Alan Clifton. Clifton was previously Managing Director of Morley Fund Management, the asset management arm of insurance giant Aviva.
He is also currently the chairman of investment trusts Schroder UK Growth (LSE: SDU) and JPMorgan Fleming Japanese Smaller Companies (LSE: JPS), and serves as a director of a number of other investment companies, including Macau Property Opportunities (LSE: MPO)
The company employs an asset manager, New Perspective, whose directors are ex-Credit Suisse and KPMG and who have considerable experience of doing business in Japan.
In short, then, a team combining good local knowledge with an appreciation知道，瞭解 of UK shareholder expectations.
The company
When the company floated in 2008 it hoped to raise £100m. The timing was unfortunate and gross proceeds of a placing ended up being just £3m at 50p a share. The market capitalisation on admission to AIM was £22m.
The company had to scale back its target of having 1,000 rooms under management in the first year. The company website, under the 'Investment Properties' tab, details the core portfolio of five hotels, which operate under the 'Bonita' brand at the premium end of the market.
Despite the current small size of the business, results for the year ending 31 December 2009, announced last week, confirm the viability of the business model.
Excellent cash generation will leave the company with net cash, even after the refurbishment and rebranding of a sixth hotel and the payment of a maiden interim dividend of 1p.
The dividend policy is to pay out all free cash flow. Analysts are forecasting dividends of 1.5p in 2010 and 2p in 2011, giving yields of 3.6% and 4.8%, respectively, at the current share price of 41.5p.
The shares are trading at a substantial discount to the year-end adjusted net asset value of 74p.
The future
A capital raising in order to purchase more hotels will doubtless be in the directors' minds. The disappointing original placing and a further aborted attempt last year are not exactly encouraging, but prospects have been considerably enhanced by the recent results and the pick-up in the global economy.
There's no room for Japan Leisure Hotels in my own portfolio -- which has an increasingly conservative tilt with the passing of the years -- but the company does look to have potential for a more speculative investor, or as a marginal holding for anyone with a very large portfolio of eclectic investments.
Of course, I need hardly say, it comes with all the usual risks of a microcap company.
These hotels attract a range of clientele from respectable married couples to those discreetly pursuing more illicit liaisons and backpacking tourists at the cheap end of the market.
There are around 25,000 such hotels in Japan, serving up to 2 million customers each day. The sector has proved remarkably recession-resilient. Annual turnover is estimated at £17bn and the average daily occupancy rate of around 250% is something regular hotels can only dream of.
It's a fragmented industry, with 90% of the hotels in chains of five or less, and since the bubble economy of the 1980s many have suffered from lack of investment.
Japan Leisure Hotels has seen the opportunity to buy up these distressed assets, invest in refurbishment and reap the rewards of what are highly cash-generative businesses.
The management
The company has a board of three non-executive directors, headed by Chairman Alan Clifton. Clifton was previously Managing Director of Morley Fund Management, the asset management arm of insurance giant Aviva.
He is also currently the chairman of investment trusts Schroder UK Growth (LSE: SDU) and JPMorgan Fleming Japanese Smaller Companies (LSE: JPS), and serves as a director of a number of other investment companies, including Macau Property Opportunities (LSE: MPO)
The company employs an asset manager, New Perspective, whose directors are ex-Credit Suisse and KPMG and who have considerable experience of doing business in Japan.
In short, then, a team combining good local knowledge with an appreciation知道，瞭解 of UK shareholder expectations.
The company
When the company floated in 2008 it hoped to raise £100m. The timing was unfortunate and gross proceeds of a placing ended up being just £3m at 50p a share. The market capitalisation on admission to AIM was £22m.
The company had to scale back its target of having 1,000 rooms under management in the first year. The company website, under the 'Investment Properties' tab, details the core portfolio of five hotels, which operate under the 'Bonita' brand at the premium end of the market.
Despite the current small size of the business, results for the year ending 31 December 2009, announced last week, confirm the viability of the business model.
Excellent cash generation will leave the company with net cash, even after the refurbishment and rebranding of a sixth hotel and the payment of a maiden interim dividend of 1p.
The dividend policy is to pay out all free cash flow. Analysts are forecasting dividends of 1.5p in 2010 and 2p in 2011, giving yields of 3.6% and 4.8%, respectively, at the current share price of 41.5p.
The shares are trading at a substantial discount to the year-end adjusted net asset value of 74p.
The future
A capital raising in order to purchase more hotels will doubtless be in the directors' minds. The disappointing original placing and a further aborted attempt last year are not exactly encouraging, but prospects have been considerably enhanced by the recent results and the pick-up in the global economy.
There's no room for Japan Leisure Hotels in my own portfolio -- which has an increasingly conservative tilt with the passing of the years -- but the company does look to have potential for a more speculative investor, or as a marginal holding for anyone with a very large portfolio of eclectic investments.
Of course, I need hardly say, it comes with all the usual risks of a microcap company.
Aminex Likendoe 1 explanation
They are busy using microscopes and calculators trying work this out. Because the area has been water washed after the hydrocarbons left, there will probably have been new mineralisation. So it's not that simple to work out what the permeability and porosity would have been like originally.
The gas influx for Likonde is also not quantifed. A small amount of gas at circa 3700m will be a large amount at surface over the shakers. Enough to scare you , but no data on commerciallity. If it had been significant I would imagine that they would have persevered and tried to quantify the gas,suggesting it was the oil they really wanted.
They were alert for potential gas problem when drilling the last section. They stopped when the gas influx was 100% [of what?] and dumped in heavier mud. At this point they were just at TD and were about to stop anyway.
It is industry practice to only call something a gas discovery if hydrocarbons are recovered to the surface - this didn't happen as it was too dangerous. Because nothing flowed to the surface they have no ideas about flow or whether it would have been maintained. They stopped because it was too dangerous, not because they weren't interested in gas or to put a better gloss on a result.
'That' RNS mentioned residual hydrocarbons. Does this mean that hydrocarbons have migrated through the zone of interest and failed to be trapped?
There was a good seal but the trap was breached/sprung
Do they need to rework their assumptions about the trap. How is such work progressing?
They now know that trap integrity (not source etc) will be the major risk for the next well, expected 2011. So they will be studying that aspect of the possible locations very hard. Work ongoing.-
High gas was influx reported. How does that square with 'residual' hydrocarbons? Is there a seal between one or more zones?
yes there is a seal between the upper areas, where first a large residual gas section then a residual oil section were found, and the lower section where the gas influx came from
The gas influx for Likonde is also not quantifed. A small amount of gas at circa 3700m will be a large amount at surface over the shakers. Enough to scare you , but no data on commerciallity. If it had been significant I would imagine that they would have persevered and tried to quantify the gas,suggesting it was the oil they really wanted.
They were alert for potential gas problem when drilling the last section. They stopped when the gas influx was 100% [of what?] and dumped in heavier mud. At this point they were just at TD and were about to stop anyway.
It is industry practice to only call something a gas discovery if hydrocarbons are recovered to the surface - this didn't happen as it was too dangerous. Because nothing flowed to the surface they have no ideas about flow or whether it would have been maintained. They stopped because it was too dangerous, not because they weren't interested in gas or to put a better gloss on a result.
'That' RNS mentioned residual hydrocarbons. Does this mean that hydrocarbons have migrated through the zone of interest and failed to be trapped?
There was a good seal but the trap was breached/sprung
Do they need to rework their assumptions about the trap. How is such work progressing?
They now know that trap integrity (not source etc) will be the major risk for the next well, expected 2011. So they will be studying that aspect of the possible locations very hard. Work ongoing.-
High gas was influx reported. How does that square with 'residual' hydrocarbons? Is there a seal between one or more zones?
yes there is a seal between the upper areas, where first a large residual gas section then a residual oil section were found, and the lower section where the gas influx came from
2010年5月12日 星期三
南順（香港）411
業務
製造及分銷麵粉、食用油、家用及工業用清潔用品
產品定位
高端市場。油脂產品還是麵粉市場，只做金字塔尖的那一塊。不會去和別人拼規模和價格)
核心競爭力在於技術和品質
「即潔保」品牌推出商業及工業之清潔用品產品線
中國市場80% of sales
Development Path
1997年蛇口設廠 (擁有6.2萬噸的龐大筒倉), 日處理小麥達1200噸，為國內最大、世界前十大專用麵粉生產基地
200x 江蘇宜興工廠
2009 09 (1億元)收購江蘇蘇南麵粉廠 (完成技術改造)，正式投產協同供應華東、華中市場。
2009 - 10月，山東南順青州的麵粉生產基地正式投產, first part 投資8000萬元、日產量500噸拓展供應北方市場的橋頭堡
南順已形成北有青州基地、中有江蘇基地、南有深圳基地的生產布局，輻射全國主要區域市場此次集中投產兩家工廠，並非為了拼規模，而是為了滿足國內快速增長的食品精細化發展需求
南順的專業麵粉生產能力翻番，達到3600噸/天的產能，鞏固了其在專業麵粉領域“隱形冠軍”的地位。
Product
Food
「金像」牌麵包粉、「美玫」牌糕點粉、「刀嘜」牌食用油、「紅燈」牌食用油、「斧頭」牌及「勞工」牌清潔用品 (集團總營業額約60%)
麵粉的產品線分得非常細，有麵包粉、糕點粉、蛋糕粉、麵條粉、餃子粉、月餅粉等多達135個品種，分別歸屬於金像、美玫、金皇冠、凱旋門等12個麵粉品牌。
除此之外，為企業客戶配製的專用麵粉超過200種。不同的產品，對麵粉的顆粒、色澤、吸水性、麵筋強度、蛋白和礦物質含量等理化指標要求各不相同，因此需要不同的加工工藝和配方。
Client
常年為麥當勞、肯德基、嘉頓麵包、麵包新語、可頌坊、日清食品、三全食品等企業訂製專用麵粉。這樣的直接客戶，南順在全中國有252家，並處於不斷增長之中。
這些客戶佔據了南順麵粉的過半產量，也奠定了南順在專用麵粉領域的龍頭地位。
據海關統計資料，2008年南順麵粉蛇口基地出口香港、澳門的麵粉達7.9萬噸，其中經深圳海關出口7.4萬噸，出口量同比增加40%。
南順已經在內部成功發起了一項改革，將存貨周轉期從去年同期的57天壓縮到現在的40天。他期望，兩家新廠投產後，存貨的周轉期可以進一步壓縮。
2010年5月11日，旗下的红灯4：1营养平衡调和油配方获发明专利证书.
Advantage
華南地區內店鋪管理趨完善, 開始滲透北京及上海主要連鎖超級市場；
市場基數大、消費升級給高端品牌帶來機會
麵粉重新佈局全國, potential massive increase point (專業麵粉生產翻番，3600噸/天的產能)
產能利用率處於行業領先
麵粉為麥當勞、肯德基、嘉頓麵包、等企業訂製專用麵粉。並處於不斷增長之中(佔據了南順麵粉的過半產量)，南順在專用麵粉領域的龍頭地位。
糧油行業中唯一專注下游加工和品牌建設的大型企業
Risk
(玉米 Price) – Rised significantly
Rising in Minimum wages
幾年南順食用油“北伐”華東和華北市場，結果出現很大虧損
跟內地的同行相比，南順這幾年發展相對慢
国内竞争激烈的食用油市场，将有更多强势竞争者入局。8月中旬起，香港食用油第一品牌刀唛在京进行大规模赠送活动。 相对香港市场，内地市场潜力巨大，且存在大片市场空白。在内地 (刀唛)今年将在市场知名度、渠道、团购三方面集中投入，扩大市场影响力和覆盖范围。以期在重点一线城市业绩翻番，打开内地市场。
2009-9-8 食用油降价趋势却有增无减。
“鲁花”5升装花生油从每桶99.9元降至79.9元；5.436升装花生油从107.9元降至86.8元，平均降价幅度为两成。
小包装食用油风向标金龙鱼和福临门都发出了降价通知，如金龙鱼的下调幅度约10%15%左右，福临门降幅也在一成左右，此轮产品价格下调主要涉及豆油、菜籽油和调和油三个系列油种，下调幅度约10%-15%。
上游降价促使食用油降价
原材料成本大幅走低是引起今年食用油价格下跌的主要原因。
2008年最高峰时豆油的期货价格曾一路攀升至1.4万元/吨，市场上5L装的调和油价格80元。
2009农产品价格，豆油价格也大幅下滑，较去年最高峰时下跌了一半。
7月份国内大豆进口量再次创出新高，达到了439万吨，同比增加25%。进口大豆压榨依然有利润的情况下大豆进口稳步上涨。同时，7月份食用油的进口量也达到93万吨，同比增长27%。国内如此地大量进口大豆与食用油，将导致国内市场供应较为充足，食用油价格上涨面临压力。
9月，新花生大量上市，大幅度降价促销，帮助消化存货，从而有更充裕的资金来进购原料新花生。近期国际大豆期货一直在下跌，也是我国食用油价格普遍回落的重要原因
北京最大专业粮油批发市场，鲁花花生油5L×4和5.436L×4批发价分别为310元和350元，鲁花此次降价，5.436L装的零售价甚至低于批发价。食用油价格的进一步下调，消费者却表现出异常的冷淡，蜂拥而上抢购食用油的现象也难以看到，让许多业内人士不解。
Market Share
目前，益海嘉里占有国内整个食用油市场的42%,，其旗下品牌占据小包装食用油60%～70%的市场份额
中粮集团占13%,
九三油脂集团占9%。
中粮目前在玉米食用油的供应量占全国的40%-50%。
世界四大国际粮油巨头ADM、邦基、嘉吉、路易达孚占据国内食用油脂70%的生产
製造及分銷麵粉、食用油、家用及工業用清潔用品
產品定位
高端市場。油脂產品還是麵粉市場，只做金字塔尖的那一塊。不會去和別人拼規模和價格)
核心競爭力在於技術和品質
「即潔保」品牌推出商業及工業之清潔用品產品線
中國市場80% of sales
Development Path
1997年蛇口設廠 (擁有6.2萬噸的龐大筒倉), 日處理小麥達1200噸，為國內最大、世界前十大專用麵粉生產基地
200x 江蘇宜興工廠
2009 09 (1億元)收購江蘇蘇南麵粉廠 (完成技術改造)，正式投產協同供應華東、華中市場。
2009 - 10月，山東南順青州的麵粉生產基地正式投產, first part 投資8000萬元、日產量500噸拓展供應北方市場的橋頭堡
南順已形成北有青州基地、中有江蘇基地、南有深圳基地的生產布局，輻射全國主要區域市場此次集中投產兩家工廠，並非為了拼規模，而是為了滿足國內快速增長的食品精細化發展需求
南順的專業麵粉生產能力翻番，達到3600噸/天的產能，鞏固了其在專業麵粉領域“隱形冠軍”的地位。
Product
Food
「金像」牌麵包粉、「美玫」牌糕點粉、「刀嘜」牌食用油、「紅燈」牌食用油、「斧頭」牌及「勞工」牌清潔用品 (集團總營業額約60%)
麵粉的產品線分得非常細，有麵包粉、糕點粉、蛋糕粉、麵條粉、餃子粉、月餅粉等多達135個品種，分別歸屬於金像、美玫、金皇冠、凱旋門等12個麵粉品牌。
除此之外，為企業客戶配製的專用麵粉超過200種。不同的產品，對麵粉的顆粒、色澤、吸水性、麵筋強度、蛋白和礦物質含量等理化指標要求各不相同，因此需要不同的加工工藝和配方。
Client
常年為麥當勞、肯德基、嘉頓麵包、麵包新語、可頌坊、日清食品、三全食品等企業訂製專用麵粉。這樣的直接客戶，南順在全中國有252家，並處於不斷增長之中。
這些客戶佔據了南順麵粉的過半產量，也奠定了南順在專用麵粉領域的龍頭地位。
據海關統計資料，2008年南順麵粉蛇口基地出口香港、澳門的麵粉達7.9萬噸，其中經深圳海關出口7.4萬噸，出口量同比增加40%。
南順已經在內部成功發起了一項改革，將存貨周轉期從去年同期的57天壓縮到現在的40天。他期望，兩家新廠投產後，存貨的周轉期可以進一步壓縮。
2010年5月11日，旗下的红灯4：1营养平衡调和油配方获发明专利证书.
Advantage
華南地區內店鋪管理趨完善, 開始滲透北京及上海主要連鎖超級市場；
市場基數大、消費升級給高端品牌帶來機會
麵粉重新佈局全國, potential massive increase point (專業麵粉生產翻番，3600噸/天的產能)
產能利用率處於行業領先
麵粉為麥當勞、肯德基、嘉頓麵包、等企業訂製專用麵粉。並處於不斷增長之中(佔據了南順麵粉的過半產量)，南順在專用麵粉領域的龍頭地位。
糧油行業中唯一專注下游加工和品牌建設的大型企業
Risk
(玉米 Price) – Rised significantly
Rising in Minimum wages
幾年南順食用油“北伐”華東和華北市場，結果出現很大虧損
跟內地的同行相比，南順這幾年發展相對慢
国内竞争激烈的食用油市场，将有更多强势竞争者入局。8月中旬起，香港食用油第一品牌刀唛在京进行大规模赠送活动。 相对香港市场，内地市场潜力巨大，且存在大片市场空白。在内地 (刀唛)今年将在市场知名度、渠道、团购三方面集中投入，扩大市场影响力和覆盖范围。以期在重点一线城市业绩翻番，打开内地市场。
2009-9-8 食用油降价趋势却有增无减。
“鲁花”5升装花生油从每桶99.9元降至79.9元；5.436升装花生油从107.9元降至86.8元，平均降价幅度为两成。
小包装食用油风向标金龙鱼和福临门都发出了降价通知，如金龙鱼的下调幅度约10%15%左右，福临门降幅也在一成左右，此轮产品价格下调主要涉及豆油、菜籽油和调和油三个系列油种，下调幅度约10%-15%。
上游降价促使食用油降价
原材料成本大幅走低是引起今年食用油价格下跌的主要原因。
2008年最高峰时豆油的期货价格曾一路攀升至1.4万元/吨，市场上5L装的调和油价格80元。
2009农产品价格，豆油价格也大幅下滑，较去年最高峰时下跌了一半。
7月份国内大豆进口量再次创出新高，达到了439万吨，同比增加25%。进口大豆压榨依然有利润的情况下大豆进口稳步上涨。同时，7月份食用油的进口量也达到93万吨，同比增长27%。国内如此地大量进口大豆与食用油，将导致国内市场供应较为充足，食用油价格上涨面临压力。
9月，新花生大量上市，大幅度降价促销，帮助消化存货，从而有更充裕的资金来进购原料新花生。近期国际大豆期货一直在下跌，也是我国食用油价格普遍回落的重要原因
北京最大专业粮油批发市场，鲁花花生油5L×4和5.436L×4批发价分别为310元和350元，鲁花此次降价，5.436L装的零售价甚至低于批发价。食用油价格的进一步下调，消费者却表现出异常的冷淡，蜂拥而上抢购食用油的现象也难以看到，让许多业内人士不解。
Market Share
目前，益海嘉里占有国内整个食用油市场的42%,，其旗下品牌占据小包装食用油60%～70%的市场份额
中粮集团占13%,
九三油脂集团占9%。
中粮目前在玉米食用油的供应量占全国的40%-50%。
世界四大国际粮油巨头ADM、邦基、嘉吉、路易达孚占据国内食用油脂70%的生产
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