Highlights
OPERATIONAL
• Kiliwani North gas field - Resolution of regulatory issues at gas plant opens way to commercialisation
• Ruvuma PSA - First well proves up potential for oil as well as gas
• Nyuni PSA - Seismic and remapping at Nyuni firm up prospects for drilling
• Shoats Creek - New well completed for production in Cockfield sands
• Shoats Creek - AMI signed with El Paso to explore shared deep oil potential with first joint well now drilled and currently being tested
• Korea East Sea - New partner introduced and PSC signed covering 50,000 km²
• Egypt, West Esh el Mellahah - PSC extended to second term
FINANCIAL
• Oil production of 16,000 bbl (2009: 24,000 bbl) and gas production of 133,000 Mcf (2009: 302,000 Mcf) suffered temporary fall in the period
• Loss before tax of US$2.49 million (2009: US$1.15 million)
Aminex chairman Brian Hall said: "Tanzania is increasingly becoming a focus of industry interest as major international oil companies prepare their drilling programmes. Aminex, an early entrant, has already drilled the most significant exploration discovery in the country in recent history, Kiliwani North, and intends to continue exploring and developing its Tanzanian assets in a very positive manner.
The recently-drilled first well to test a deep Wilcox prospect in our Shoats Creek property, Louisiana, based on new 3D seismic data, is potentially a major step forward in our US activities. A test result will be available shortly."
Operations Overview
Since the end of the reporting period, Aminex has been advised by the parties concerned that outstanding issues between the Tanzanian Government regulator and the regional pipeline operator, which were holding up the expansion of a gas plant at Songo-Songo Island, have now been satisfactorily resolved so that detailed engineering plans can be submitted for final approval. This will lead to facilities becoming available to transport gas from the Kiliwani North field to market in the Dar es Salaam region which will significantly increase revenues.
Aminex has been drilling actively since the beginning of 2010. The Tullow-operated Likonde-1 well in the onshore Ruvuma basin of Tanzania (Aminex - 37.5%) and the Aminex-operated Olympia Minerals-1 well ("OM-1", Aminex - 100%) at Shoats Creek, Louisiana, were both spudded in the first quarter. Likonde-1 provided encouraging information about an under-explored basin but was not a commercial discovery. OM-1 has now been completed for production, the first new well to be drilled on the Company's Shoats Creek property with benefit of new 3D seismic.
During the reporting period, seismic processing, re-processing, interpretation and mapping were completed over the Nyuni PSA in Tanzania with very constructive results, tabulated later in this statement. Reported contingent resource GIIP of over 200 BCF (equivalent to roughly 30 million bbl) and prospective resource GIIP of over 2.5 TCF (equivalent to roughly 400 million bbl) on a Pmean basis are providing the platform for a development programme at the Kiliwani North gas field and helping identification of future exploration drilling targets.
In June 2010, Aminex was invited to take a minority interest in a broader exploration programme in the same general area of Louisiana as its Shoats Creek property. The Company used its existing shareholder authority to place 17.2 million new shares for cash, to raise approximately US$1.7 million before expenses and to fund the entry cost of this unbudgeted opportunity. At the time of writing negotiations with the third party are still ongoing.
Since the reporting date, the Company's wholly-owned US subsidiary has signed an Area of Mutual Interest Agreement ("AMI") in Louisiana with Shoats Creek neighbour El Paso E&P, LP ("El Paso") for joint exploration of a deep prospect in Upper Wilcox sands which is believed to span the acreage of both companies. A 50-50 split has been agreed and a first well, Olympia Minerals-10-1 ("OM-10-1"), has now been drilled to a total measured depth of 12,410 feet (3,783 metres), encountering and logging potential hydrocarbon-bearing sands which are currently being tested. Aminex's side of the AMI covers approximately one quarter of the surface area of the Shoats Creek leases.
Early in the year the Company sold a 50% interest in its subsidiary Korex Limited which holds interests in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ("DPRK"). In May Korex Limited signed a PSC with the Korea Oil Exploration Company, the state oil company of the DPRK, covering approximately 50,000 km² offshore, deep and shallow water, in the Korean East Sea. The new contract is in substitution for previous PSCs and provides a strong basis for going forward in this controversial but highly prospective country, in partnership with Chosun Energy which will manage operations from its base in Singapore.
In Egypt, the promising South Malak-1 well was not in the end established as a commercial producer, despite having recovered limited quantities of oil, but this means that Aminex's share of costs will continue to be carried by other partners. The joint venture is sufficiently encouraged to have committed to extend the licence into a second term, with a commitment to drill two further wells at no cost to Aminex except in the event of a commercial discovery.
Outlook
In Tanzania, two significant events will lead to further progress on the Nyuni PSA. Firstly, recent resolution of the issues which have stalled expansion of the gas treatment plant at Songo-Songo Island for the last two years will now enable the Company to move forward with development of the Kiliwani North gas field, which lies within the Nyuni PSA. Secondly, the mapping exercise completed by independent consultants ISIS during the reporting period has firmly established the further potential of the acreage and this will enable the Company to plan its future exploration drilling programme at Nyuni with a far higher level of confidence than before. The next well to be drilled at Nyuni is likely to test one of the large prospects close to Nyuni Island with a spud date in the first quarter of 2011. An application for a development licence at the Kiliwani North field will be submitted to the Tanzanian authorities in the near future.
In the onshore Ruvuma Basin operator Tullow Oil continues to analyse the results of Likonde-1 prior to proposing a new well location. A follow-up well to Likonde-1 is scheduled to be drilled in the first half of 2011.
In the USA, further drilling locations at Shoats Creek will be determined once the results of OM-10-1, currently being tested, are known. Further drilling is likely at the Alta Loma field in Texas during 2011, originally planned for 2010 but now deferred.
Aminex will also lobby hard for a completion of behind-pipe reserves in the 60 foot "S" sands in the Sunny Ernst-2 well at Alta Loma, which has the potential to increase Company revenues significantly and more than replace declining production lost from the Upper Andrau formation in the same well.
Preliminary work on the new Korean PSC is already in progress but no field work in the East Sea or major expenditure is anticipated during the remainder of 2010.
Further drilling is unlikely in Egypt during the remainder of this year.
Operations Report
Aminex's principal activities consist of oil and gas exploration, development and production in Tanzania and in the US states of Texas and Louisiana. In addition the Company participates in a PSC onshore in Egypt and is a shareholder in Korex Limited which holds a PSC offshore in the East Sea of Korea. Aminex's wholly-owned subsidiary AMOSSCO Limited provides equipment, consumables and logistical services to the international oil industry and supports the Company's operated wells during drilling.
Tanzania - Nyuni PSA, including the Kiliwani North gas discovery
Aminex has a 50% interest in the Nyuni/East Songo-Songo PSA and has drilled three wells to date, as operator. Of these,
Nyuni-1 was drilled in 2004 and intersected gas-bearing Aptian-Albian sands which are now considered to contain 233 BCF contingent resource gas in GIIP (Pmean basis)
Kiliwani North-1 (KN-1) which was drilled in 2008, testing gas at a flow rate of 40 MMcfd (equivalent to 6,600 BOPD).
The Kiliwani North field is considered to contain 45 BCF contingent resources gas in place (Pmean basis) in Neocomian age sandstones.
The contingent resource from the untested Aptian-Albian sands in Nyuni-1 is therefore now considered to be much larger than the contingent resource at the Kiliwani North field.
Contingent and prospective resources have been mapped and independently calculated by ISIS Petroleum Consultants, following (1) acquisition and processing of new seismic in 2009, (2) reprocessing of existing data and (3) integration of all seismic data sets and well data. Contingent resources (identified by drilling) and prospective resources (identified by seismic) together total over 2.8 TCF gas in place, equivalent to approximately 460 million bbl.
The Kiliwani North discovery well is located on the southern tip of Songo-Songo Island, 2.5 kilometres overland in a straight line from the gas treatment plant for the producing Songo-Songo gas field which delivers gas to market in Dar es Salaam via a 200 km common-user pipeline. This plant needs to be expanded in order to handle additional volumes of gas including production from KN-1, but progress has been stalled for two years pending resolution of certain issues between the Tanzanian regulator and the regional pipeline operator. However Aminex has been informed by the parties concerned that these issues have now been resolved so that detailed engineering plans can be submitted for final approval. Although no final timetable has been yet been confirmed by the pipeline operator, Aminex estimates that first gas will be delivered into the line from KN-1 in the first half of 2012 at a likely initial production rate of 20 MMcfd (equivalent to approximately 3,300 BOPD). With this gas plant expansion deadlock now resolved, a 25-year development licence application for Kiliwani North will be submitted to the Tanzanian authorities in the near future.
Further drilling is planned for 2011 at Nyuni and the next well is likely to test one of the prospects close to Nyuni Island, using a land rig which will drill directionally from an existing well site previously constructed by Aminex on the Island. New discoveries of gas could potentially be tied back to the KN-1 site which may ultimately become a gas gathering hub for the whole PSA area.
The Nyuni PSA is now in its third and final period and will expire in 2011, being the first PSA in Tanzania ever to last for its full term. The proposed 25-year Kiliwani North development licence will not be affected by the expiry of the PSA but the remaining exploration acreage cannot be further extended under Tanzanian law. However, the Tanzanian authorities have indicated their willingness to negotiate a completely new PSA at Nyuni, to become effective upon expiry of the existing one and have indicated that they will be prepared to finalise this before further exploration drilling commences.
Tanzania - Ruvuma PSA
The Ruvuma PSA covers approximately 12,000 km² (roughly 80% onshore/20% offshore) on the Tanzanian side of the Ruvuma Basin, one of the last under-explored great river basins on the African continent.
The Likonde-1 well was drilledduring the reporting period, being the first of two commitment wells during the first (extended) period of the Ruvuma PSA. The operator is Tullow Oil (50%).
By contributing to back costs and paying 18.75% of the cost of Likonde-1, Solo Oil PLC has earned a 12.5% interest in the PSA from the Company, effectively reducing Aminex's working interest to 37.5%.
Likonde-1 was drilled to an extended total depth of 3,647 metres, encountering over 250 metres of potential reservoir sands with evidence of crude oil from sidewall cores. Strong readings of natural gas were recorded through virtually the entire well bore and drilling had to be halted after a high influx of gas and high temperatures were encountered. The well is providing a wealth of data on this under-explored basin and strong encouragement for future drilling. However, Likonde-1 itself was not a commercial discovery and has now been plugged and abandoned.
A revised evaluation of the potential of this PSA is still in progress, based on the knowledge gained from Likonde-1. The future programme and next drilling location have not yet been finalised, although a follow-up well is planned for the first half of 2011.
The Ruvuma Basin is now the subject of intense industry interest. Exxon-Mobil and BG have separately farmed into offshore blocks on the Tanzanian side of the basin whilst Anadarko and partners are engaged in a major drilling programme on the Mozambique side of the basin (where, for the avoidance of confusion, the basin is known as "Rovuma"). Aminex and partners hold all the prospective onshore acreage on the Tanzanian side of the Ruvuma River, the frontier between Tanzania and Mozambique.
Tanzania - West Songo-Songo PSA, coastal/offshore
Aminex participates in the West Songo-Songo PSA with a 50% interest. The operator is Key Petroleum Ltd. which holds the remaining 50%. The PSA covers 504 km² and adjoins both the Nyuni PSA and the producing Songo-Songo gas field. West Songo-Songo lies within the Rufiji basin, a proven producing trend which includes the Songo-Songo gas field and Aminex's Kiliwani North gas field. Key Petroleum plans to reprocess existing seismic but no substantial progress has yet been made on this. A first well is due to be drilled in 2011. Despite limited progress to date, Aminex considers West Songo-Songo to be a valuable component of its Tanzanian portfolio and any gas discovery in due course could be tied into a gas hub based at Kiliwani North on Songo-Songo Island.
USA - Shoats Creek, Louisiana
There has been intense activity on the Company's wholly-owned Shoats Creek leases during the reporting period and the ongoing interpretation of new 3D seismic data has defined several locations for further drilling in the untested Lower Wilcox sands.
At the beginning of the year, Aminex granted a 90-day exclusive farm-in option to Black Tip Petroleum to acquire 50% of the property in return for a cash payment. Black Tip was unable to complete this farm-in and the option lapsed but subsequent progress may prove this to have been a satisfactory outcome for the Company.
In February the Olympia Minerals-1 well ("OM-1") was spudded (Aminex 100%) and drilled to approximately 9,000 feet. The objective of this well was the Cockfield formation and several Cockfield zones were logged and very extensively tested. This well has now been completed in the Cockfield 2 ands and is on production. OM-1 needs careful management due to waxing and sanding issues. Stabilised production on pump is expected to be 150 BOPD, representing a step increase in US production levels and it will become a material component of Aminex's overall production.
Since the end of the reporting period, the Company's wholly-owned US subsidiary has signed an Area of Mutual Interest Agreement ("AMI") in Louisiana with Shoats Creek neighbour El Paso E&P Company, LP ("El Paso") for joint exploration of a deep prospect in Upper Wilcox sands which is believed to span the acreage of both companies. A 50-50 split has been agreed and a first well, Olympia Minerals-10-1 ("OM-10-1") has now been drilled to a total measured depth of 12,410 feet (3,783 metres), encountering and logging potential hydrocarbon-bearing sands which are currently being tested. The AMI covers approximately one quarter of the surface area of the Company's Shoats Creek leases.
Further drilling of the Wilcox with El Paso is likely but the detailed programme will be determined by the test results of OM-10-1.
Aminex commissions an annual independent engineering report on its US properties. However, a decision was taken not to re-evaluate Shoats Creek reserves in early 2010 due to imminent drilling which would have quickly rendered them out of date. As soon as a result is available from the OM-10-1 well and, if applicable, some production history available from both OM-10-1 and OM-1, a new report will be commissioned incorporating data gained from both wells which drilled on the property so far this year.
USA - Alta Loma, Texas
Aminex has a 37.5% working interest in the Alta Loma property which is operated by El Paso. Sunny Ernst-2 ("SE-2") has been producing from Upper Andrau sands since 2008 but production is now materially declining and this had a material effect on the Company's production during the reporting period. Above the Upper Andrau lies a thick section of gas logged when the well was drilled in a formation known as the "S" sand. This formation offers the possibility of much more significant production and Aminex will press hard for the "S" sand to be completed and placed on production. This should have a significant effect on production. A further well, Sunny Ernst-3 which was originally planned for 2010, is now likely to be delayed until 2011. Gross production from SE-2 is currently 1.9 MMcfd with 70 BOPD.
USA - Somerset and South Weslaco, Texas
The Somerset Field close to San Antonio produces approximately 100 BOPD from multiple stripper wells with relatively high operating costs but no material production decline year-on-year. Aminex USA, Inc. is the operator and 100% owner of Somerset. The South Weslaco gas field in Hidalgo County, Texas produces approximately 1.85 MMcfd gross gas and is operated by Kaler Resources. Aminex USA, Inc. has a 25% working interest.
Egypt - West Esh el Mellahah-2, onshore Gulf of Suez
The West Esh el Mellahah-2 (WEEM-2) PSC is a large onshore block in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, geologically positioned on the southwest margins of the Gulf of Suez Basin to the east of the Red Sea Hills, a prolific oil producing basin with multiple reservoirs, including several giant fields.
Three obligation wells were drilled in the first period of the PSC with encouraging results but none has been placed on commercial production. The most recent, South Malak-1, was drilled to a total depth of 11,200 feet in 2009, terminating in Basement rocks. Strong gas shows were recorded while drilling over a 900 foot interval from 10,300ft to total depth. Both oil and gas were encountered and limited quantities of high quality oil recovered to surface.
WEEM-2 lies in an oil-prone but highly-faulted area. The positive shows from South Malak-1 have provided the joint venture with sufficient encouragement to extend the licence into a second period, ending September 2012, which includes a commitment to drill two further exploration wells.
In the case of establishing commercial production, WEEM-2 is located within a few kilometres of the Esh el Mellahah oil production facilities with an export pipeline to the coast.
Aminex has a 10% interest in the PSC with a free carry continuing until first commercial production under a Development Lease.
DPRK - East Sea offshore, shallow and deep water
Aminex first signed a Petroleum Agreement for co-operation in oil and gas with the government of the DPRK in 2004. However, for a number of reasons progress was slow for some time.
Despite challenging international politics, Aminex has succeeded in maintaining good working relations with the DPRK authorities and in May 2010 formally signed a Production Sharing Contract for a large offshore area in shallow and deep water in the Korean East Sea, covering approximately 50,000 km². The work obligation involves reprocessing and reinterpretation of old seismic data plus acquisition of new marine seismic data during an initial two-year period. Aminex believes that the East Sea has great potential for significant discoveries of oil and gas while recognising the political challenges in the region and the need to ensure that any applicable international sanctions are strictly observed.
Also during the reporting period Aminex introduced a new foreign partner, Singapore-based Chosun Energy Pte Ltd ("Chosun"), which will provide finance for the initial stages and a regional base in Singapore. Chosun has acquired 50% of the Company's existing DPRK interests in return for a consideration valued at US$500,000.
UK - AMOSSCO, oilfield services and supplies
trading actively and opening up markets in new areas. AMOSSCO will support procurement and logistics for the forthcoming drilling programme at Nyuni.
Financial Review
Revenue Producing Operations
Group revenues of US$2.6 million for the first six months of 2010 comprise US$1.85 million oil and gas revenues and US$0.75 million oilfield services and supplies revenues. Total revenues of US$2.6 million were 32% lower than the comparative period. Oil and gas production decreased compared with the first half of 2009: oil production was 16,000 bbls (2009: 24,000 bbls) and gas production was 133,000 Mcf (2009: 302,000 Mcf).
The decrease is attributable to the expected decline in production from the Upper Andrau zone in the Sunny Ernst-2 well ahead of partner approval to recomplete the well and perforate the "S" sand. The average oil price for the period increased by 63% from US$45.61 per bbl to US$74.48 per bbl. There was also an increase in the average gas price from US$4.01 per Mcf to US$5.05 per Mcf, an increase of 26%. Oilfield services and supplies revenues are down 54%, mainly due to a reduction in the provision of technical services to Company-operated ventures in the period.
Cost of sales, excluding depletion and depreciation, of US$1.8 million is lower than the comparative period by 29% reflecting the lower revenues in the period. Depletion and depreciation at US$0.5 million is marginally lower than 2009: the depletion charge on a barrel of oil equivalent basis has increased between the two periods because of the reduction in Alta Loma and South Weslaco reserves independently evaluated at the start of 2010.
Administrative expenses increased to US$2.9 million, an increase of 57% over 2009. The increase includes a share-based payment charge of US$810,000 (2009: US$97,000) arising on the grant of options under the Aminex PLC Executive Share Option Scheme on 4 January 2010 and a reduction in own employee costs capitalised during period. Administrative expenses are mainly incurred in sterling: there was no significant difference in the US dollar: sterling exchange rate between the half-years under review. The disposal of 50% of the Group's interest in certain Korean interests and impairment of other investments related to the Korean interests gave rise to a loss of US$68,000. This was offset by a gain on revaluation of the existing financial asset of US$306,000, leading to an overall gain on disposal of US$238,000. Finance costs of US$83,000 (2009: US$69,000) mainly represent the non-cash discount arising on the decommissioning provision. The Group continues to have negligible interest bearing debt. The resulting loss before tax of US$2.4 million is consequently greater than the loss of US$1.2 million for the comparative period.
Balance Sheet
The investment in Kulczyk, amounting to US$400,000 at 30 June 2010 is now classified as held for sale within current assets as the Company is now seeking to dispose of these shares. The net change in fair value of the assets held for sale within current assets amounted to US$68,000 in the period and this has been recorded in the statement of comprehensive income.
Interest bearing debt (short and long-term) at 30 June 2010 stands at US$135,000, the same balance as at 31 December 2009. Total equity has decreased by US$243,000 since 31 December 2009 comprising the net loss for the period of US$2.49 million, the net loss of US$131,000 in the foreign currency translation reserve and the US$68,000 net change in fair value of assets held for sale: these losses are offset by increases amounting to US$1.63 million in the issued capital and share premium accounts following the share placing announced on 9 June 2010 and an increase of US$810,000 in the share option reserve, related to new options issued in the financial period.
Cash Flows
The share placing in June 2010 raised net proceeds of US$1.63 million. Interest bearing debt was reduced by US$33,000 (2009: US$29,000) and a new loan of US$33,000 was taken out on the purchase of equipment in the US. Net cash outflows from operating activities during the current reporting period amounted to US$374,000 compared with net cash inflows US$1.7 million for the first half of 2009, reflecting the lower revenues from US operations. The Group spent US$4.7 million on exploration and evaluation assets, mainly including its share of the Likonde-1 well, net of farm-in contributions received from Solo Oil. Aminex also spent US$2.6 million on property plant and equipment: the main area of expenditure was the drilling and testing of the Olympia Minerals-1 well at Shoats Creek.
The net decrease in cash and cash equivalents for the six month period ended 30 June 2010 was US$6.1 million which compares with a net decrease for the comparative period ended 30 June 2009 of US$1.85 million.
Related Party Transactions
There were no related party transactions during the six-month period to 30 June 2010 that have materially affected the financial position or performance of the Group. In addition, there were no changes in the related parties set out in Note 26 to the Financial Statements contained in the 2009 Annual Report that could have had a material effect on the financial position or performance of the Group during the six-month period.
Going Concern
The Directors have given careful consideration to the Group's ability to continue as a going concern and have concluded that a continuance of such a position beyond the end of fiscal 2010 will be dependent on the successful sale of assets or an alternative method of raising working capital. The Directors have reasonable expectation that the Group will be able to implement this strategy successfully and are pursuing a number of alternative options in this regard. For this reason, they continue to adopt the going concern basis in preparing this half-yearly financial report.
Principal Risks and Uncertainties
Aminex's Group activities are carried out in many parts of the world, in particular East Africa, North Africa, North Korea and the USA. We carry out periodic reviews to identify risk factors which might affect our business and financial performance. Although the summary set out below is not exhaustive as it is not possible to identify every risk that could affect our business, we consider the following to be the principal risks and uncertainties facing the business over the next six months:
Exploration risk - our exploration and development activities may be delayed or adversely affected by factors outside our control, in particular: climatic and oceanographic conditions; performance of joint venture partners; performance of suppliers and exposure to rapid cost increases; availability, delays or failures in installing and commissioning plant and equipment; unknown geological conditions resulting in dry or uneconomic wells; remoteness of location; actions of host governments or other regulatory authorities (relating to, inter alia, the grant, maintenance, changes or renewal of any required authorisations, environmental regulations - in particular in relation to plugging and abandonment of wells, or changes in law).
Production risks - our operational activities may be delayed or adversely affected by factors outside our control, in particular: blowouts; unusual or unexpected geological conditions; performance of joint venture partners on non-operated and operated properties; seepages or leaks resulting in substantial environmental pollution; increased drilling and operational costs; uncertainty of oil and gas resource estimates; production, marketing and transportation conditions; and actions of host governments or other regulatory authorities.
Commodity prices - the demand for, and price of, oil and gas is dependent on global and local supply and demand, weather conditions, availability of alternative fuels, actions of governments or cartels and general global economic and political developments.
Currency risk - although our reporting currency is the US dollar which is the currency most commonly used in the pricing of petroleum commodities and for significant exploration and production costs, other expenditures (in particular for our entral administrative costs) are made in local currencies (as is our equity funding), thus creating currency exposure.
Political risks - as a consequence of our activities in different parts of the world, Aminex may be subject to political, economic and other uncertainties, including but not limited to terrorism, military repression, war or other unrest, nationalisation or expropriation of property, changes in national laws and energy policies, exposure to less developed legal systems.
A more detailed listing of risks and uncertainties facing the Group's business is set out on page 5 of the 2009 Aminex PLC Annual Report and Accounts (available on the Aminex website www.aminex-plc.com).
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements made in this interim management report are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from the expected future events or results referred to in these forward-looking statements.
Statement of the Directors in respect of the Half-Yearly Financial Report
We, the board of directors, as listed on page 14 of the most recent annual report confirm our responsibility for the half-yearly financial statements and that to the best of our knowledge:
● the condensed set of financial statements comprising the condensed income statement, the condensed statement of comprehensive income, the condensed balance sheet, the condensed statement of changes in equity, the condensed statement of cashflows and the related notes have been prepared in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting as adopted by the EU.
● the interim management report includes a fair review of the information required by:
(a) Regulation 8(2) of the Transparency (Directive 2004/109/EC) Regulations 2007, being an indication of important events that have occurred during the first six months of the financial year and their impact on the condensed set of financial statements; and a description of the principal risks and uncertainties for the remaining six months of the year; and
(b) Regulation 8(3) of the Transparency (Directive 2004/109/EC) Regulations 2007, being related party transactions that have taken place in the first six months of the current financial year and that have materially affected the financial position or performance of the entity during that period; and any changes in the related party transactions described in the last annual report that could do so.
The total non-current assets increased to US$51.8 million at 30 June 2010 from US$45.8 million at 31 December 2009. The increase in these assets of US$6.0 million comprised US$4.3 million of E&E expenditure, principally related to Tanzania, as noted above; a further US$2.1 million incurred on the US producing business (property, plant and equipment) and a reduction in other investments of US$342,000. The Group also disposed of certain of its Korean assets in return for a combination of listed and unlisted shares, in Kulczyk Oil Ventures Inc ("Kulczyk") and Triton Petroleum Pte Ltd respectively.
2010年8月27日 星期五
2010年8月24日 星期二
《股林淘金》比亞迪
《股林淘金》有讀者詢問：筆者自２００５年以來經常推介中國的汽車股，例如東風集團（００４８９）在《香港經濟日報》及《經濟通通訊社》和其他傳媒等，經常建議買入的文章不下２０次，華晨中國（０１１１４）和吉利汽車（００１７５）的推介也有十多次，為何比亞迪（０１２１１）的推介一次也沒有？
筆者有１０年以上的時間涉足於汽車買賣及維修行業上，環球各大汽車巨人的興衰起落及其
原委也所知甚詳，比亞迪的業務風險和多變性是香港上市汽車股中之冠，嚴格來說，比亞迪不宜作投資，只可作投機。
＊比亞迪急促擴展成隱憂＊
以產品風險而言，東風集團與比亞迪有天淵之別。東風銷售的產品，多是和外國品牌車廠合作，例如日本本田、日產、法國雪鐵龍、標緻等，該批產品型號早已在世界各市場被證實了是暢銷和成功的，故在市場急速壯大的中國，根本沒有不成功的可能。故為何在２００５年尾東風上市時錄得ＩＰＯ不足額認購時，筆者仍然對東風前景充滿信心和不斷給予正面評價（上市價是１﹒６元）。
比亞迪的業務風險在於沒有成本精算的全盤計劃和應對策略。例如以東風上述暢銷的四大外國品牌車款為例，既往多年來的統計顯示，每款車或引擎的平均壽命是多少，每２萬公里或４萬公里時汽車的哪個部件會出現何種損毀及或然率是多少，維修成本是多少等，全部都有數據支持（以上數據及評價可經由世界汽車服務統計權威ＪＤ Ｐｏｗｅｒ，美國ＡＡＡ及美國消費者報告取得）。
＊自產品牌歷史短，產品保證有疑問＊
比亞迪自主品牌汽車在新車銷售時，給予買家兩年及６萬公里的保用，當中若汽車過早損毀
時，廠家需要多少金錢作維修補償？筆者認為比亞迪本身自己也不大清楚，因為這批自己研發的自主品牌型號從來都未有既往歷史數據去作一精算，比亞迪對此維修成本，有沒有作撥備？（除了機械損毀，還有產品設計失誤引至失事的索償？）
＊創業容易守業難，不宜馬上治天下＊
消費者索償（或投訴）時的應對策略是公司危機管理手法之一。２００５年比亞迪使用了廉價拉攏加盟代理商令比亞迪的汽車銷售網絡急促擴大，形成了後來多年產品暢銷的助力功臣。筆者認為王傳福的市場策略是成功的，但馬上得天下易，馬上治天下便難，市場混亂中異軍突出，拉雜成軍可收一時之效，但這批隊員專業嗎？懂得危機處理嗎？懂得化解和事前避免消費者的不滿嗎？
美國８０年代油價暴升之時，歐洲及韓國車廠向美國蜂湧輸入節能車，以價廉物美迅速打開美國市場，但僅僅幾年，因售後服務差及汽車本身質量欠佳而關門大吉，退出市場的有Ｌａｄａ、Ｓｋｏｄａ和快意（Ｆｉａｔ），韓國的現代汽車高級轎房車Ｓｔｅｌｌａｒ，使用兩年後車架出現嚴重鬆散而被汽車雜誌評為「最危險汽車」，銷量劇跌下出現財務困境，幸有母公司支持全面更換問題零件，最終才挽回消費者的信心。比亞迪有母公司支持嗎？如果這個「最終」挽回消費者信心需要兩年時間，比亞迪的財政撐得住嗎？
＊業務進速退銳，股價亦然＊
筆者並不是說比亞迪必然遭遇危機，筆者只是說比亞迪處理危機的態度和能力皆很薄弱。主席王傳福瞄準了２００３年至２００５年中國汽車步入起飛前良機，用進取的市場推廣手法為比亞迪強佔了汽車市場的第一桶金，值得嘉許。但成功的市場推廣並不等同成功的產品，汽車產品沒有５年以上的紀錄，難以確定是安全和合標準的商品，高調的市場推廣沒有良好的售後服務支持，一旦產品有失誤，銷售表現會變得進速退銳。上周五（２０日）集團大幅調低今年汽車銷售目標至６０萬輛，筆者認為只是比亞迪危機初露的第一步。從一些網頁上的消息得知，比亞迪已開始出現消費者留言，不滿產品質素及投訴在保用期內機器損毀後不作負責維修，及消費者屢次投訴都被冷漠對待等消息。
另外，在很多中國汽車網頁內的產品款式選購中，大部分網頁資料都顯示比亞迪各款傳統汽
車可即時取車，毋須等候，而比亞迪的代理加盟商們之庫存量一直比其他汽車牌子高，也是筆者對其業務有戒心的重要原因。
比亞迪的缺點尚有管理層未必有足夠合適人員去處理數年間不斷向其他業務的快速擴張，包
括純電池車、混能汽車、寧波的蕊片廠、電能巴士、低碳節能家電等等。其實比亞迪對自己汽車業的煩惱也兼顧不暇，由今年年頭開始釀起的加盟商因承受不了總公司的不斷壓貨（業內的合理庫存是１﹒２個月，但比亞迪的代理商是３個月的庫存量），代理商的資金鏈壓力很大，經常要削價速銷，在２００９年曾經是比亞迪在成都的金牌銷售代理商，在今年也退回比亞迪的代理權，現時轉投吉利汽車服務。用壓貨策略於手機或手機電池銷售或會成功，但汽車業的借貸服務、維修，將來的舊車換新車及二手車買賣等，才是代理們的最大利潤來源，比亞迪現時對代理們的態度有如殺雞取卵，是一個雙輸的方案，除非是比亞迪的現金需求緊絀，則作別論。
＊若不急救亡，比亞迪會見３５元＊
事實上比亞迪近期的業績的確是褪色不少，但猶幸在快速增長的中國市場上，比亞迪仍有機會重振雄風，但必須要立即推行救亡措施。筆者有三大建議認為比亞迪要立即執行，否則筆者預期比亞迪的股價會一浪低於一浪，有機會跌穿３５元的水平。
（一）立即在市場上盡快籌集資金，即使大折讓配股也要進行。因為直至今年６月底時，比
亞迪的總借貸高達６４﹒７億元（去年是３６﹒５億元），但一年內要還款的便要約３９億元，現金雖然有１８﹒３億元，但是不要忘記比亞迪代理們的庫存量是同業中最高的，今年第三季是銷售淡季，比亞迪的套現能力將要大打折扣。而比亞迪新開發的項目甚多，單是寧波的蕊片廠和深圳的純電池汽車廠，每個月的資金需求投入要數億元，而其以往本業的比亞迪電子（００２８５）業務不斷放緩，可提供的資金實在不多。比亞迪要壯士斷臂，暫時要擱置一些急速擴展的非核心業務才可安渡危機。
（二）要立即重整比亞迪車主對產品索償的安排，總公司必須要掌控所有與顧客的溝通渠道，勿讓一些不專業的中間代理將初時不滿的顧客讓投訴事情愈搞愈大，最終拖跨比亞迪辛苦建立的品牌商譽（這現象僅屬初起，尚未到達危險程度，但小傷口若不理會，一旦蔓延感染，將是比亞迪未來產品再要推銷的絆腳石）。
（三）要轉危為機。要主動聯絡顧客對旗下產品的定期檢查及保養。中國車主們對汽車保養知識貧乏，機件有問題時必會歸咎於比亞迪的產品質素。比亞迪對外當然可以吹噓質素如何高水平，但熟悉行情的專家自然非常心水清（包括筆者），比亞迪何德何能突然由一個門外漢，可以自產品牌，並比同業便宜一半價錢及可保用６萬公里及兩年之質素？主動聯絡車主將汽車勤加保養除了可預早將質素問題化於無形外，更可鞏固與顧客們的商業關係，何樂而不為？
筆者深信（王傳福亦應該深知肚明）電能車或混能車的前路是非常艱辛。歐美國家以往３０多年，投下數十億美元的研究，仍然弄不出一輛符合商業效益的電池汽車，身為生產手機零件及電池的商人，突然告訴你他已攻破了技術難關，你相信嗎？筆者有３０年閱讀汽車雜誌大部分是以外國雜誌為主）的經驗和知識告訴讀者們，筆者不會相信。若是政府肯不計成本的「無私」支持，則作別論。但任何有政府龐大補貼的產品，若沒有政府成為主要股東的誘因，政府何需特別照顧你？何況，現時一般人對電池車的環保效益，只是想當然的自以為是，距離真相是天淵之別，筆者下一文章會詳述電池車為何環保效益低，政府全力補貼將是一個謎！
短期而言，我會將比亞迪列入負面觀察名單。
筆者有１０年以上的時間涉足於汽車買賣及維修行業上，環球各大汽車巨人的興衰起落及其
原委也所知甚詳，比亞迪的業務風險和多變性是香港上市汽車股中之冠，嚴格來說，比亞迪不宜作投資，只可作投機。
＊比亞迪急促擴展成隱憂＊
以產品風險而言，東風集團與比亞迪有天淵之別。東風銷售的產品，多是和外國品牌車廠合作，例如日本本田、日產、法國雪鐵龍、標緻等，該批產品型號早已在世界各市場被證實了是暢銷和成功的，故在市場急速壯大的中國，根本沒有不成功的可能。故為何在２００５年尾東風上市時錄得ＩＰＯ不足額認購時，筆者仍然對東風前景充滿信心和不斷給予正面評價（上市價是１﹒６元）。
比亞迪的業務風險在於沒有成本精算的全盤計劃和應對策略。例如以東風上述暢銷的四大外國品牌車款為例，既往多年來的統計顯示，每款車或引擎的平均壽命是多少，每２萬公里或４萬公里時汽車的哪個部件會出現何種損毀及或然率是多少，維修成本是多少等，全部都有數據支持（以上數據及評價可經由世界汽車服務統計權威ＪＤ Ｐｏｗｅｒ，美國ＡＡＡ及美國消費者報告取得）。
＊自產品牌歷史短，產品保證有疑問＊
比亞迪自主品牌汽車在新車銷售時，給予買家兩年及６萬公里的保用，當中若汽車過早損毀
時，廠家需要多少金錢作維修補償？筆者認為比亞迪本身自己也不大清楚，因為這批自己研發的自主品牌型號從來都未有既往歷史數據去作一精算，比亞迪對此維修成本，有沒有作撥備？（除了機械損毀，還有產品設計失誤引至失事的索償？）
＊創業容易守業難，不宜馬上治天下＊
消費者索償（或投訴）時的應對策略是公司危機管理手法之一。２００５年比亞迪使用了廉價拉攏加盟代理商令比亞迪的汽車銷售網絡急促擴大，形成了後來多年產品暢銷的助力功臣。筆者認為王傳福的市場策略是成功的，但馬上得天下易，馬上治天下便難，市場混亂中異軍突出，拉雜成軍可收一時之效，但這批隊員專業嗎？懂得危機處理嗎？懂得化解和事前避免消費者的不滿嗎？
美國８０年代油價暴升之時，歐洲及韓國車廠向美國蜂湧輸入節能車，以價廉物美迅速打開美國市場，但僅僅幾年，因售後服務差及汽車本身質量欠佳而關門大吉，退出市場的有Ｌａｄａ、Ｓｋｏｄａ和快意（Ｆｉａｔ），韓國的現代汽車高級轎房車Ｓｔｅｌｌａｒ，使用兩年後車架出現嚴重鬆散而被汽車雜誌評為「最危險汽車」，銷量劇跌下出現財務困境，幸有母公司支持全面更換問題零件，最終才挽回消費者的信心。比亞迪有母公司支持嗎？如果這個「最終」挽回消費者信心需要兩年時間，比亞迪的財政撐得住嗎？
＊業務進速退銳，股價亦然＊
筆者並不是說比亞迪必然遭遇危機，筆者只是說比亞迪處理危機的態度和能力皆很薄弱。主席王傳福瞄準了２００３年至２００５年中國汽車步入起飛前良機，用進取的市場推廣手法為比亞迪強佔了汽車市場的第一桶金，值得嘉許。但成功的市場推廣並不等同成功的產品，汽車產品沒有５年以上的紀錄，難以確定是安全和合標準的商品，高調的市場推廣沒有良好的售後服務支持，一旦產品有失誤，銷售表現會變得進速退銳。上周五（２０日）集團大幅調低今年汽車銷售目標至６０萬輛，筆者認為只是比亞迪危機初露的第一步。從一些網頁上的消息得知，比亞迪已開始出現消費者留言，不滿產品質素及投訴在保用期內機器損毀後不作負責維修，及消費者屢次投訴都被冷漠對待等消息。
另外，在很多中國汽車網頁內的產品款式選購中，大部分網頁資料都顯示比亞迪各款傳統汽
車可即時取車，毋須等候，而比亞迪的代理加盟商們之庫存量一直比其他汽車牌子高，也是筆者對其業務有戒心的重要原因。
比亞迪的缺點尚有管理層未必有足夠合適人員去處理數年間不斷向其他業務的快速擴張，包
括純電池車、混能汽車、寧波的蕊片廠、電能巴士、低碳節能家電等等。其實比亞迪對自己汽車業的煩惱也兼顧不暇，由今年年頭開始釀起的加盟商因承受不了總公司的不斷壓貨（業內的合理庫存是１﹒２個月，但比亞迪的代理商是３個月的庫存量），代理商的資金鏈壓力很大，經常要削價速銷，在２００９年曾經是比亞迪在成都的金牌銷售代理商，在今年也退回比亞迪的代理權，現時轉投吉利汽車服務。用壓貨策略於手機或手機電池銷售或會成功，但汽車業的借貸服務、維修，將來的舊車換新車及二手車買賣等，才是代理們的最大利潤來源，比亞迪現時對代理們的態度有如殺雞取卵，是一個雙輸的方案，除非是比亞迪的現金需求緊絀，則作別論。
＊若不急救亡，比亞迪會見３５元＊
事實上比亞迪近期的業績的確是褪色不少，但猶幸在快速增長的中國市場上，比亞迪仍有機會重振雄風，但必須要立即推行救亡措施。筆者有三大建議認為比亞迪要立即執行，否則筆者預期比亞迪的股價會一浪低於一浪，有機會跌穿３５元的水平。
（一）立即在市場上盡快籌集資金，即使大折讓配股也要進行。因為直至今年６月底時，比
亞迪的總借貸高達６４﹒７億元（去年是３６﹒５億元），但一年內要還款的便要約３９億元，現金雖然有１８﹒３億元，但是不要忘記比亞迪代理們的庫存量是同業中最高的，今年第三季是銷售淡季，比亞迪的套現能力將要大打折扣。而比亞迪新開發的項目甚多，單是寧波的蕊片廠和深圳的純電池汽車廠，每個月的資金需求投入要數億元，而其以往本業的比亞迪電子（００２８５）業務不斷放緩，可提供的資金實在不多。比亞迪要壯士斷臂，暫時要擱置一些急速擴展的非核心業務才可安渡危機。
（二）要立即重整比亞迪車主對產品索償的安排，總公司必須要掌控所有與顧客的溝通渠道，勿讓一些不專業的中間代理將初時不滿的顧客讓投訴事情愈搞愈大，最終拖跨比亞迪辛苦建立的品牌商譽（這現象僅屬初起，尚未到達危險程度，但小傷口若不理會，一旦蔓延感染，將是比亞迪未來產品再要推銷的絆腳石）。
（三）要轉危為機。要主動聯絡顧客對旗下產品的定期檢查及保養。中國車主們對汽車保養知識貧乏，機件有問題時必會歸咎於比亞迪的產品質素。比亞迪對外當然可以吹噓質素如何高水平，但熟悉行情的專家自然非常心水清（包括筆者），比亞迪何德何能突然由一個門外漢，可以自產品牌，並比同業便宜一半價錢及可保用６萬公里及兩年之質素？主動聯絡車主將汽車勤加保養除了可預早將質素問題化於無形外，更可鞏固與顧客們的商業關係，何樂而不為？
筆者深信（王傳福亦應該深知肚明）電能車或混能車的前路是非常艱辛。歐美國家以往３０多年，投下數十億美元的研究，仍然弄不出一輛符合商業效益的電池汽車，身為生產手機零件及電池的商人，突然告訴你他已攻破了技術難關，你相信嗎？筆者有３０年閱讀汽車雜誌大部分是以外國雜誌為主）的經驗和知識告訴讀者們，筆者不會相信。若是政府肯不計成本的「無私」支持，則作別論。但任何有政府龐大補貼的產品，若沒有政府成為主要股東的誘因，政府何需特別照顧你？何況，現時一般人對電池車的環保效益，只是想當然的自以為是，距離真相是天淵之別，筆者下一文章會詳述電池車為何環保效益低，政府全力補貼將是一個謎！
短期而言，我會將比亞迪列入負面觀察名單。
分析：美国原油库存“明升”掩盖全球库存“暗降”
* 海上储油在近几个月急剧下滑--经纪商
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* 美国现有石油库存能满足未来57日的需求
记者 Joshua Schneyer 编译 宿泱韫/王丽鑫
路透纽约8月19日电---美国石油库存处于至少20年来的最高水准,但海上储油量骤降显示全球原油供应正在收紧,这一利多因素应会推高油价.
美国政府周三公布的数据显示,美国原油和油品库存创纪录高位,指标美国原油期货价格应声跌至六周低点73.83美元,较8月初触及的近83美元的夏季高点滑落11%.
美国石油库存总量上周增加590万桶,至11.30亿桶,为美国能源资料协会(EIA)1990年开始公布一周库存数据以来最高.石油库存自6月初以来已增加4,000万桶.
但据船舶经纪商透露,很难追踪的全球海上储油6月和7月或已减少4,500万桶,降至去年峰值逾1亿桶的一半左右.
"对现在海上储油量比较保险的估计是不超过(1亿桶)的一半."船舶经纪商Charles R. Weber的George Los表示.
Los称近期没有看到有因储油需求而租用超大型船舶的情况,而在去年夏季他追踪到至少20笔短期租用交易.每一艘超大型油轮能储存约200万桶原油.
"对浮式储油的需求几乎消失."本月初公布的Gibson船舶报告显示.
据Gibson,全球浮式储油仅7月一个月就减少30%,或2,560万桶,至约5,900万桶.
此类储油多数来自伊朗,该国由于近来受到国际社会旨在禁止其核试验的制裁,难以售出本国原油.
另一家经纪商ICAP表示,由于炼厂增加炼油,用于航煤等油品炼制的海上原油需求本月可能回升.
贸易公司2009年利用原油期货巨大的正价差进行正向套利,赚取了丰厚利润.
在经济复苏之时全球现货燃油需求上升,价差下降,海上储油从寒冷地区运来,并转用较便宜的陆上存储,并计入美国官方的库存数据中.这就给人以供应过剩的观感.
高盛分析师本周指出,6-7月间全球海上储油量减少4,000万-4,500万桶,远超全球陆上库存同期的增幅2,100万桶.
这可能表明在库存通常上升的季节,石油净库存却出现利好油市的大幅减少势头.
"从全球角度来看,我们似乎处在库存下降时期,"高盛分析师David Greely称."海上库存下降幅度很大,这更加反衬出陆上库存的增幅."
高盛估计,经季节因素调整後,全球石油日供给缺口约为60万桶.该行仍预计2010年底指标西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)期货价格将升至每桶85-95美元,实货市场趋紧是其维持该预测不变的原因之一.
另一重要供需指标--期货抵补(forward cover)也显示,实际情况并没有库存数据显示的那麽偏空.期货抵补衡量现有陆上原油和油品库存能满足多少天的消费需求.尽管美国石油库存水平上升,但目前的期货抵补值只有57天,低于2009年的高点62天,比1990年美国石油库存处于相仿水准时的70天更是相去甚远.
**原油正价差缩小**
另一表明市场趋紧的迹象是原油正价差在缩小,而通常在石油短期需求疲软时,正价差应当最深才对.周四西德克萨斯中质油近月期货合约较一个月後到期合约贴水低见每桶0.25美元,2009年平均为1.58美元.
美国库欣库存仍然在3,700万桶以上,接近5月触及的纪录高位3,790万桶,并远高于2009年水平,当时库欣库存上升导致油价出现很大幅度的正价差.
法国巴黎银行在本周研究报告中表示,鉴于库存水平之高,西德克萨斯中质油正价差低得惊人,可能仍会走阔.不过该行仍然预计,西德克萨斯中质油价格今年会逐渐上涨,到第四季时涨至平均每桶89美元.
此外,能源资料协会(EIA)预计2010年下半年西德克萨斯中质油均价为80美元,年终时升至接近85美元的水平.
EIA预计,今年美国液体燃料需求将在五年内出现首次上升.美国国内需求上升,外加中印等国更强劲的需求增势,将帮助降低石油库存.
"将全球经济描绘成一片惨淡是不对的,"摩根大通在周三的一份报告中称.该行称,印度汽油需求较上年同期增长近15%,因汽车销量飙升.
EIA数据显示,美国汽油需求增长则温和得多,上周汽油需求为946万桶,较2009年同期增长2.8%.馏分油需求则较2009年同期增长6%.(完)
* 分析师和银行人士预计油价在今年馀下时间上涨
* 美国现有石油库存能满足未来57日的需求
记者 Joshua Schneyer 编译 宿泱韫/王丽鑫
路透纽约8月19日电---美国石油库存处于至少20年来的最高水准,但海上储油量骤降显示全球原油供应正在收紧,这一利多因素应会推高油价.
美国政府周三公布的数据显示,美国原油和油品库存创纪录高位,指标美国原油期货价格应声跌至六周低点73.83美元,较8月初触及的近83美元的夏季高点滑落11%.
美国石油库存总量上周增加590万桶,至11.30亿桶,为美国能源资料协会(EIA)1990年开始公布一周库存数据以来最高.石油库存自6月初以来已增加4,000万桶.
但据船舶经纪商透露,很难追踪的全球海上储油6月和7月或已减少4,500万桶,降至去年峰值逾1亿桶的一半左右.
"对现在海上储油量比较保险的估计是不超过(1亿桶)的一半."船舶经纪商Charles R. Weber的George Los表示.
Los称近期没有看到有因储油需求而租用超大型船舶的情况,而在去年夏季他追踪到至少20笔短期租用交易.每一艘超大型油轮能储存约200万桶原油.
"对浮式储油的需求几乎消失."本月初公布的Gibson船舶报告显示.
据Gibson,全球浮式储油仅7月一个月就减少30%,或2,560万桶,至约5,900万桶.
此类储油多数来自伊朗,该国由于近来受到国际社会旨在禁止其核试验的制裁,难以售出本国原油.
另一家经纪商ICAP表示,由于炼厂增加炼油,用于航煤等油品炼制的海上原油需求本月可能回升.
贸易公司2009年利用原油期货巨大的正价差进行正向套利,赚取了丰厚利润.
在经济复苏之时全球现货燃油需求上升,价差下降,海上储油从寒冷地区运来,并转用较便宜的陆上存储,并计入美国官方的库存数据中.这就给人以供应过剩的观感.
高盛分析师本周指出,6-7月间全球海上储油量减少4,000万-4,500万桶,远超全球陆上库存同期的增幅2,100万桶.
这可能表明在库存通常上升的季节,石油净库存却出现利好油市的大幅减少势头.
"从全球角度来看,我们似乎处在库存下降时期,"高盛分析师David Greely称."海上库存下降幅度很大,这更加反衬出陆上库存的增幅."
高盛估计,经季节因素调整後,全球石油日供给缺口约为60万桶.该行仍预计2010年底指标西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)期货价格将升至每桶85-95美元,实货市场趋紧是其维持该预测不变的原因之一.
另一重要供需指标--期货抵补(forward cover)也显示,实际情况并没有库存数据显示的那麽偏空.期货抵补衡量现有陆上原油和油品库存能满足多少天的消费需求.尽管美国石油库存水平上升,但目前的期货抵补值只有57天,低于2009年的高点62天,比1990年美国石油库存处于相仿水准时的70天更是相去甚远.
**原油正价差缩小**
另一表明市场趋紧的迹象是原油正价差在缩小,而通常在石油短期需求疲软时,正价差应当最深才对.周四西德克萨斯中质油近月期货合约较一个月後到期合约贴水低见每桶0.25美元,2009年平均为1.58美元.
美国库欣库存仍然在3,700万桶以上,接近5月触及的纪录高位3,790万桶,并远高于2009年水平,当时库欣库存上升导致油价出现很大幅度的正价差.
法国巴黎银行在本周研究报告中表示,鉴于库存水平之高,西德克萨斯中质油正价差低得惊人,可能仍会走阔.不过该行仍然预计,西德克萨斯中质油价格今年会逐渐上涨,到第四季时涨至平均每桶89美元.
此外,能源资料协会(EIA)预计2010年下半年西德克萨斯中质油均价为80美元,年终时升至接近85美元的水平.
EIA预计,今年美国液体燃料需求将在五年内出现首次上升.美国国内需求上升,外加中印等国更强劲的需求增势,将帮助降低石油库存.
"将全球经济描绘成一片惨淡是不对的,"摩根大通在周三的一份报告中称.该行称,印度汽油需求较上年同期增长近15%,因汽车销量飙升.
EIA数据显示,美国汽油需求增长则温和得多,上周汽油需求为946万桶,较2009年同期增长2.8%.馏分油需求则较2009年同期增长6%.(完)
2010年8月22日 星期日
中國海澱
中國海澱（0256）
內需概念股，
每股資產淨帳面淨值為84仙，
國內生產及銷售鐘錶業務，
擁有「羅西尼」 (Rossini)及「依波」(Ebohr) 國產的著名鐘錶品牌，佔國產市場46.8% 份額。
國產4個鐘錶名牌之中，中國海澱囊括了兩個 (行業性龍頭，有產品定價能力， 毛利率超過60%)
連續6屆入選中國最具價值品牌500強，品牌價值合共達36.86億元
2009年7月31日 - 收購深圳市恒譽嘉時，(專門分銷日本名錶之Citizen、Casio及Calvin Klein品牌手錶，其中Citizen分銷權集中於四川省、福建省、山西省及重慶市，而Casio品牌分銷權則屬全國性)
計劃每年增15%銷售點
至2009年9月，中國海澱在全國有1,700個銷售點，並計劃每年按15%的增長速度,
開設專門店，推廣自家品牌
深圳恒譽超時，計劃大其銷售點10倍，由當時的48個增加至500個。
會提升在珠海及深圳的廠房， 年產鐘錶能力將會超過100萬隻，亦計劃收購國際及內地鐘錶品牌，瑞士鐘錶機芯廠，希望把手錶機芯技術轉移至內地，並於內地生產機芯出口至海外。
公司手頭現金約3.8億元，並無任何負債，足以應付一切收購所需資金。
09年，公司錄得純利3.63億元 (增長24.93%)
每股盈利10.24仙，
派發末期息4.1仙，全年共派發5.1仙，
9.2倍的往績市盈率及5.4厘的股息率
今年首5個月，銷售錄得雙位數字增長，幅度比去年同期還要快，
同店銷售亦有上升，估計全年銷售增長可超過去年的26%水平。
值得一提，去年(09)手錶產品提價6%，與往年(08)升幅5%相符，而今年公司會繼續按通脹及市場供求調升價格，估計手錶加價幅 度會超過6%，配合新收購的Citizen、Casio及Calvin Klein等品牌提供盈利貢獻，估計中國海澱今年盈利將可錄得更加強勁的增長。
09年，依波收入2.7億，純利增加42%；
羅西尼收入增長512%至2.8億，純利增長537%，
今年集團旗下囊括了瑞士鐘錶品牌—豪度（Codex），並在瑞士設立附屬公司及分店，推廣以Codex品牌之瑞士製手錶以及精製機械錶芯及名貴金屬錶殼之中國製手錶。同時，Codex品牌及其他依波精品指定品牌之瑞士製手錶亦將透過當地分銷渠道出售。
10年6月，公司以2.14億元出售深圳冠洋房幸產權益，預期可獲1.56億元盈利，
公司還考慮善價而沽利潤較低漆包銅線業務，套現資金集中搞鐘錶業務。
根據聯交所資料顯示，中國海澱主席韓國龍之前以每股平均價0.832至0.842元，大手增持1429.4萬股，
高山行
內需概念股，
每股資產淨帳面淨值為84仙，
國內生產及銷售鐘錶業務，
擁有「羅西尼」 (Rossini)及「依波」(Ebohr) 國產的著名鐘錶品牌，佔國產市場46.8% 份額。
國產4個鐘錶名牌之中，中國海澱囊括了兩個 (行業性龍頭，有產品定價能力， 毛利率超過60%)
連續6屆入選中國最具價值品牌500強，品牌價值合共達36.86億元
2009年7月31日 - 收購深圳市恒譽嘉時，(專門分銷日本名錶之Citizen、Casio及Calvin Klein品牌手錶，其中Citizen分銷權集中於四川省、福建省、山西省及重慶市，而Casio品牌分銷權則屬全國性)
計劃每年增15%銷售點
至2009年9月，中國海澱在全國有1,700個銷售點，並計劃每年按15%的增長速度,
開設專門店，推廣自家品牌
深圳恒譽超時，計劃大其銷售點10倍，由當時的48個增加至500個。
會提升在珠海及深圳的廠房， 年產鐘錶能力將會超過100萬隻，亦計劃收購國際及內地鐘錶品牌，瑞士鐘錶機芯廠，希望把手錶機芯技術轉移至內地，並於內地生產機芯出口至海外。
公司手頭現金約3.8億元，並無任何負債，足以應付一切收購所需資金。
09年，公司錄得純利3.63億元 (增長24.93%)
每股盈利10.24仙，
派發末期息4.1仙，全年共派發5.1仙，
9.2倍的往績市盈率及5.4厘的股息率
今年首5個月，銷售錄得雙位數字增長，幅度比去年同期還要快，
同店銷售亦有上升，估計全年銷售增長可超過去年的26%水平。
值得一提，去年(09)手錶產品提價6%，與往年(08)升幅5%相符，而今年公司會繼續按通脹及市場供求調升價格，估計手錶加價幅 度會超過6%，配合新收購的Citizen、Casio及Calvin Klein等品牌提供盈利貢獻，估計中國海澱今年盈利將可錄得更加強勁的增長。
09年，依波收入2.7億，純利增加42%；
羅西尼收入增長512%至2.8億，純利增長537%，
今年集團旗下囊括了瑞士鐘錶品牌—豪度（Codex），並在瑞士設立附屬公司及分店，推廣以Codex品牌之瑞士製手錶以及精製機械錶芯及名貴金屬錶殼之中國製手錶。同時，Codex品牌及其他依波精品指定品牌之瑞士製手錶亦將透過當地分銷渠道出售。
10年6月，公司以2.14億元出售深圳冠洋房幸產權益，預期可獲1.56億元盈利，
公司還考慮善價而沽利潤較低漆包銅線業務，套現資金集中搞鐘錶業務。
根據聯交所資料顯示，中國海澱主席韓國龍之前以每股平均價0.832至0.842元，大手增持1429.4萬股，
高山行
2010年8月18日 星期三
上市最讲究的都是时机-頭條日報20100817
市場一向都不喜歡貿易公司，多間做貿易的上市公司市盈率都是十分低的，如做有色金屬貿易的利記控股(00637)，做煤炭貿易的中國秦發(866)及做乾木薯片貿易的亞洲木薯(841)等等。我認為買賣這類公司跟買賣航運公司的道理一樣。當它們市盈率十分低的時候，即是它盈利最好景的時候，應該是要沽出，而不是買入。當高市盈率時，如幾十倍時，即是它盈利表現最差的時候，反而可能是買入的好機會。千萬不要掉換來做，可以輸得好慘。
上星期利記公布盈利警告，因為有色金屬價格(尤其是鋅)整體呈下降趨勢，導致集團截至今年6月底止半年度估計股東應佔溢利將較去年同期為低。利記2006年10月上市，而這是自公司上市的4年時間內第6份有關於盈利表現的通告。當中有四份是預期盈利大跌，有兩份是預期盈利大升的。這麼波動的盈利表現，心血少一點的人就最好不要做它的股東了。
利記2006年10月以2.67港元上市，市值為22億元左右。2006年時利記全年賺接近4億元，當時以5倍市盈率上市，估值可以說是十分低。不過上了市後，股價表現一直浮沈，沒有多少突破。之後到了2007年7月中，集團便公佈了盈警，股價自那個時候起便一直下跌，最低更跌至低於0.1元，市值不夠1億元。2007年該年利記便蝕了3千多萬港元。2008年經營情況略有改善，全年賺了6萬元。2009年經營情況大幅好轉，上半年已經賺了5千萬港元，全年賺了1億元。不過如果是跟2006年的4億比較，盈利水平還是相差得十分遠。
我認為利記最大的成功是把握了2006年新股瘋狂年代，成功以歷史最好的盈利表現上市。當時主席把手上大約兩億多股沽了給市場，套現了５億多元。沒有了公司兩成左右股份是無傷大雅的，公司控制股仍在主席手。成功套現又不失控制權，還有什麼比這更好。試想想如果當年公司沒有成功上市，到了2009年才上市，那兩成左右股份可能只值１億元左右，真是天壤之別。Victoria認為上市從來最講究的都是時機，相差幾倍市盈率上市可以相差很多錢。
王雅媛為持牌人士，並沒有持有以上股票
上星期利記公布盈利警告，因為有色金屬價格(尤其是鋅)整體呈下降趨勢，導致集團截至今年6月底止半年度估計股東應佔溢利將較去年同期為低。利記2006年10月上市，而這是自公司上市的4年時間內第6份有關於盈利表現的通告。當中有四份是預期盈利大跌，有兩份是預期盈利大升的。這麼波動的盈利表現，心血少一點的人就最好不要做它的股東了。
利記2006年10月以2.67港元上市，市值為22億元左右。2006年時利記全年賺接近4億元，當時以5倍市盈率上市，估值可以說是十分低。不過上了市後，股價表現一直浮沈，沒有多少突破。之後到了2007年7月中，集團便公佈了盈警，股價自那個時候起便一直下跌，最低更跌至低於0.1元，市值不夠1億元。2007年該年利記便蝕了3千多萬港元。2008年經營情況略有改善，全年賺了6萬元。2009年經營情況大幅好轉，上半年已經賺了5千萬港元，全年賺了1億元。不過如果是跟2006年的4億比較，盈利水平還是相差得十分遠。
我認為利記最大的成功是把握了2006年新股瘋狂年代，成功以歷史最好的盈利表現上市。當時主席把手上大約兩億多股沽了給市場，套現了５億多元。沒有了公司兩成左右股份是無傷大雅的，公司控制股仍在主席手。成功套現又不失控制權，還有什麼比這更好。試想想如果當年公司沒有成功上市，到了2009年才上市，那兩成左右股份可能只值１億元左右，真是天壤之別。Victoria認為上市從來最講究的都是時機，相差幾倍市盈率上市可以相差很多錢。
王雅媛為持牌人士，並沒有持有以上股票
The Innovation Group plc - Interim Management Statement 2010
The Innovation Group plc ("Innovation" or "the Group") (LSE: TIG), a global provider of business process outsourcing and technology solutions to the insurance, fleet and automotive industries today publishes its Interim Management Statement for the period from 1 April 2010 to date, in accordance with DTR 4.3 of the FSA Handbook.
Since February of this year the Executive team has rapidly executed its plan to restructure, delayer and focus the business on achieving the required run-rate profitability and cash conversion from the outsourcing business. The Board is pleased with the progress to date, with results now demonstrating that the desired transition to more predictable, long term revenue and profit is emerging. New business wins, both in H1 and the period under review have increased outsourcing revenue by 4% year-on-year at constant currency, despite economic conditions remaining challenging globally and claims volumes still being below 2008 and 2009 levels.
As previously advised, an overall exceptional charge of circa £9.0m, including £5.2m of provisions relating to property consolidation, will be taken this year. These restructuring charges will generate annualised cost savings in excess of £4.0m in 2011 and, barring any further economic downturn, conclude the Group's restructuring and cost reduction programme.
Towards the end of 2009 a Tier 1 European insurer withdrew funding from one of our software clients in Japan and as a consequence the client has been unable to satisfy an outstanding debt due to the Group. Despite several attempts to raise alternative funding, to date the client has been unable to do so. The Group therefore feels it prudent to take a bad debt provision of circa. £750K relating to this debt which was generated by software revenues recognised in prior years.
Outlook
Customer retention has been good and the Group continues to run several sizeable proofs of concept with key players in the insurance market. The management team is confident that a number of these will convert to full contracts over the coming months and provide additional recurring revenue for the Group in 2011.
Software revenues remain well below 2009 levels with a large number of potential clients in the insurance market now increasingly considering transactional pricing of software as a service ("SaaS"). Whilst this trend is completely in line with our strategy to drive higher quality recurring revenues and thereby greater long-term shareholder value, the impact will continue to affect one-off licence revenue this year.
Following successful implementation of Enterprise, our outsourcing platform, in France and Spain where operational benefits are clearly demonstrable, we are now fully engaged in rolling out the platform in Germany. Germany has the most sophisticated outsourcing model within our Group and implementation here will ultimately generate the biggest benefit to the Group in 2011 and beyond.
This has been a year of change in which a number of significant improvements have been implemented. The Board believes there has been a steady transition in the second half to more predictable, long-term revenue and profit and remains focussed on achieving a satisfactory outcome in the final quarter of the year.
Since February of this year the Executive team has rapidly executed its plan to restructure, delayer and focus the business on achieving the required run-rate profitability and cash conversion from the outsourcing business. The Board is pleased with the progress to date, with results now demonstrating that the desired transition to more predictable, long term revenue and profit is emerging. New business wins, both in H1 and the period under review have increased outsourcing revenue by 4% year-on-year at constant currency, despite economic conditions remaining challenging globally and claims volumes still being below 2008 and 2009 levels.
As previously advised, an overall exceptional charge of circa £9.0m, including £5.2m of provisions relating to property consolidation, will be taken this year. These restructuring charges will generate annualised cost savings in excess of £4.0m in 2011 and, barring any further economic downturn, conclude the Group's restructuring and cost reduction programme.
Towards the end of 2009 a Tier 1 European insurer withdrew funding from one of our software clients in Japan and as a consequence the client has been unable to satisfy an outstanding debt due to the Group. Despite several attempts to raise alternative funding, to date the client has been unable to do so. The Group therefore feels it prudent to take a bad debt provision of circa. £750K relating to this debt which was generated by software revenues recognised in prior years.
Outlook
Customer retention has been good and the Group continues to run several sizeable proofs of concept with key players in the insurance market. The management team is confident that a number of these will convert to full contracts over the coming months and provide additional recurring revenue for the Group in 2011.
Software revenues remain well below 2009 levels with a large number of potential clients in the insurance market now increasingly considering transactional pricing of software as a service ("SaaS"). Whilst this trend is completely in line with our strategy to drive higher quality recurring revenues and thereby greater long-term shareholder value, the impact will continue to affect one-off licence revenue this year.
Following successful implementation of Enterprise, our outsourcing platform, in France and Spain where operational benefits are clearly demonstrable, we are now fully engaged in rolling out the platform in Germany. Germany has the most sophisticated outsourcing model within our Group and implementation here will ultimately generate the biggest benefit to the Group in 2011 and beyond.
This has been a year of change in which a number of significant improvements have been implemented. The Board believes there has been a steady transition in the second half to more predictable, long-term revenue and profit and remains focussed on achieving a satisfactory outcome in the final quarter of the year.
2010年8月17日 星期二
銀基集團(886) update
內地煙酒代理商
銀基集團(886)透露，「01 - 7月份五糧液銷售理想，批發價增長8%，零售價亦有逾10%升幅，銷售價按月錄得15%至18%的增長，並指五糧液向來於內地供不應求。」；另外，「五糧液新產品「永福醬酒」將於8月尾上市推售 (定单已经爆满). 加上「國窖1573」及部分新紅酒產品的銷售，將可帶動整體銷售至少增長36%。」
银基集团目前在国内的供货渠道主要分为五类：超市、酒店及餐厅、烟酒专卖店、团购及娱乐场所。加上正在规划的在线商贸渠道，这家公司在渠道方面的“5 1”布局将更加清晰。最近的形象店计划，有望使自己的渠道在业内形成差异化竞争。
傳統上，夏季是白酒銷售淡季，不過今年卻出現反常情況。據悉，內地高端白酒兩個月內漲價超過一成。價格不尋常飆升，與缺貨及投資者囤貨有關。業內人士指出，貴酒未有嚇窒消費者，反而提前掀起「團購潮」，令貨源更緊張，白酒價恐續上揚。
事實上，距離中秋尚有一個多月，很多企業已開始組團預訂白酒，時間較往常提前，而中秋後一周就是國慶黃金周飲宴高峯期，因此過往9月開始加價行動，今年預先上演。要留意，雖然供求失衡，但釀酒商未曾調高出廠價，這意味在今次漲價行情中，代理分銷商將成為大贏家。
單一客户永遠是一個不可忽視的風險，所以銀基集團(886)亦擴展其他業務，引入60多個品牌的進口葡萄酒，亦有意收購一個全國知名的涼茶品牌。
銀基集團(886)亦重視銷售渠道，現有約1.3萬個零售點，大部分分布在一二線城市；公司也加倍了其銷售人員數量達450人來提升銷售和服務質量。
最近在深圳開了兩家形象店，主銷煙酒產品，選址放在深圳甲級寫字樓，目的足通過發展企業會員增加團購業務及為未來的網上銷售業務提供配送平台。
五粮液集团近日公布的中期业绩远胜预期, 个多月以来股价急升34%；12年下来， 银基集团 （00886.HK）代理五粮液，正是“挨着大树有柴烧”。
早前管理層指完成全年定單，料銷售額按年增60%。保守估計，預測今年可多賺近四成，今明兩個年度預測PE分別只有6.2 倍及5.3倍，相對中港行家逾12倍PE，折讓五成以上.
息率近9厘，手持淨現金逾9億元。
estimate
永福醬酒及43度國窖一五七三經銷新業務的啟動，(永福醬酒上市第一年銷量目標為500千升, 並期望在3至5年內使銷量達到3000千升至4000千升)
國窖1573的定價每支的零售價定為1180元（人民幣，下同） 年銷售目標為250噸，相當於50萬支的銷量，
每支零售價則為800元永福醬酒是五糧液集團的首款醬香型白酒,也標誌著五糧液集團將正式進軍醬香型白酒市場
新產品於11財年的經銷收益將分別達4.5億及2億港元，預料短期內令銀基的白酒業務比重進一步加大，這對集團總收益增長將起著絕對主導地位
估計今年全年盈利可增至5億元(但實際盈利可能受新產品推廣開支影響)，每股盈利0.42元，現價預測市盈率不足8倍。以9倍市盈率計，目標價可見3.78元。Explanation - 中國白酒
银基集团计划在2010年开出至少200家类似的门店，选址主要在深圳、上海、长沙这样的大城市。梁国兴表示，从营运的角度, 公司期望形象店的网络覆盖全中国一至三线城市，包括香港及澳门，暂时不考虑发展加盟店。
業內人士認為,因永福醬酒在今年上市的時間較晚,並且處於市場培育階段,預計今年對公司業績的貢獻比較有限。此外,一直以生產濃香型白酒為特色的五糧液集團能否做好醬香型白酒,也需要市場的檢驗。(記者周照)
上半年一向是淡季，所以銀基數月後宣布的中期業績，可能差強人意，兼且欲大規模引入紅酒及投身涼茶市場，銀基可能會保留較多現金減少派息比率。 我認為，近期宜在回落至三元才增持。
中國白酒主要分濃香型和醬香型兩大類，濃香型白酒以五糧液、瀘州老窖、劍南春、古井貢酒、沱牌、洋河大曲等酒為代表，以包括高粱為主的多種原料發酵，特色是無色透明，濃香甘爽。醬香型白酒則以茅台和郎酒為代表，屬大曲酒類，特色是醬香突出，酒體醇厚，色澤微黃。
http://www.cbmedia.cn/html/10/n-120510.html
銀基集團(886)透露，「01 - 7月份五糧液銷售理想，批發價增長8%，零售價亦有逾10%升幅，銷售價按月錄得15%至18%的增長，並指五糧液向來於內地供不應求。」；另外，「五糧液新產品「永福醬酒」將於8月尾上市推售 (定单已经爆满). 加上「國窖1573」及部分新紅酒產品的銷售，將可帶動整體銷售至少增長36%。」
银基集团目前在国内的供货渠道主要分为五类：超市、酒店及餐厅、烟酒专卖店、团购及娱乐场所。加上正在规划的在线商贸渠道，这家公司在渠道方面的“5 1”布局将更加清晰。最近的形象店计划，有望使自己的渠道在业内形成差异化竞争。
傳統上，夏季是白酒銷售淡季，不過今年卻出現反常情況。據悉，內地高端白酒兩個月內漲價超過一成。價格不尋常飆升，與缺貨及投資者囤貨有關。業內人士指出，貴酒未有嚇窒消費者，反而提前掀起「團購潮」，令貨源更緊張，白酒價恐續上揚。
事實上，距離中秋尚有一個多月，很多企業已開始組團預訂白酒，時間較往常提前，而中秋後一周就是國慶黃金周飲宴高峯期，因此過往9月開始加價行動，今年預先上演。要留意，雖然供求失衡，但釀酒商未曾調高出廠價，這意味在今次漲價行情中，代理分銷商將成為大贏家。
單一客户永遠是一個不可忽視的風險，所以銀基集團(886)亦擴展其他業務，引入60多個品牌的進口葡萄酒，亦有意收購一個全國知名的涼茶品牌。
銀基集團(886)亦重視銷售渠道，現有約1.3萬個零售點，大部分分布在一二線城市；公司也加倍了其銷售人員數量達450人來提升銷售和服務質量。
最近在深圳開了兩家形象店，主銷煙酒產品，選址放在深圳甲級寫字樓，目的足通過發展企業會員增加團購業務及為未來的網上銷售業務提供配送平台。
五粮液集团近日公布的中期业绩远胜预期, 个多月以来股价急升34%；12年下来， 银基集团 （00886.HK）代理五粮液，正是“挨着大树有柴烧”。
早前管理層指完成全年定單，料銷售額按年增60%。保守估計，預測今年可多賺近四成，今明兩個年度預測PE分別只有6.2 倍及5.3倍，相對中港行家逾12倍PE，折讓五成以上.
息率近9厘，手持淨現金逾9億元。
estimate
永福醬酒及43度國窖一五七三經銷新業務的啟動，(永福醬酒上市第一年銷量目標為500千升, 並期望在3至5年內使銷量達到3000千升至4000千升)
國窖1573的定價每支的零售價定為1180元（人民幣，下同） 年銷售目標為250噸，相當於50萬支的銷量，
每支零售價則為800元永福醬酒是五糧液集團的首款醬香型白酒,也標誌著五糧液集團將正式進軍醬香型白酒市場
新產品於11財年的經銷收益將分別達4.5億及2億港元，預料短期內令銀基的白酒業務比重進一步加大，這對集團總收益增長將起著絕對主導地位
估計今年全年盈利可增至5億元(但實際盈利可能受新產品推廣開支影響)，每股盈利0.42元，現價預測市盈率不足8倍。以9倍市盈率計，目標價可見3.78元。Explanation - 中國白酒
银基集团计划在2010年开出至少200家类似的门店，选址主要在深圳、上海、长沙这样的大城市。梁国兴表示，从营运的角度, 公司期望形象店的网络覆盖全中国一至三线城市，包括香港及澳门，暂时不考虑发展加盟店。
業內人士認為,因永福醬酒在今年上市的時間較晚,並且處於市場培育階段,預計今年對公司業績的貢獻比較有限。此外,一直以生產濃香型白酒為特色的五糧液集團能否做好醬香型白酒,也需要市場的檢驗。(記者周照)
上半年一向是淡季，所以銀基數月後宣布的中期業績，可能差強人意，兼且欲大規模引入紅酒及投身涼茶市場，銀基可能會保留較多現金減少派息比率。 我認為，近期宜在回落至三元才增持。
中國白酒主要分濃香型和醬香型兩大類，濃香型白酒以五糧液、瀘州老窖、劍南春、古井貢酒、沱牌、洋河大曲等酒為代表，以包括高粱為主的多種原料發酵，特色是無色透明，濃香甘爽。醬香型白酒則以茅台和郎酒為代表，屬大曲酒類，特色是醬香突出，酒體醇厚，色澤微黃。
http://www.cbmedia.cn/html/10/n-120510.html
2010年8月12日 星期四
赌徒心态的机构投资者-頭條日報20100810
上週五在沽空榜中，Victoria留意到其中一只比較冷門的股票上了榜，這便是康師傅(322)。康師傅的成交量一向都不大，近日它股價又不是升得特別多，為什麼無拉拉會多了這麼多的沽空盤?另外，散戶沽空並不容易，因此參與者一定都是機構投資者，這令Victoria更有興趣知道原因。四處打探下，終於問到了原因，原來是因為上星期國際小麥價格急升。
根據尼爾森2009年12月最新的國內零售研究數據顯示，康師傅的方便麵銷售量與銷售額的市場佔有率分別為41.7%及54.6%，一直穩坐中國方便麵市場的龍頭。方便麵佔了康師傅近50%的營業額，而方便麵的原材料就是棕櫚油和小麥。根據集團的第一季報表，今年棕櫚油價格比較同期升了30%以上，這個已經令到康師傅叫苦連天。再加上上星期的一單新聞，小麥出口大國俄羅斯因受熱浪與乾旱影響，宣布今個月15日起暫時禁止小麥出口到年底。這便馬上引起了機構投資者沽空康師傅的興趣。
當然一個這麼簡單的理由不會導致大量的沽空盤出現，我認為機構投資者還看到另一點，就是賭估值過高的股票只要一有什麼壞消息出來，向下跌的空間可以非常可觀。以2010年第一季的每股盈利去計算，康師傅市盈率高達34倍。這麼高的估值主要是反映集團的兩方面的營運，一是國內方便麵的龍頭地位，二是國內飲料市場的高速增長。集團公佈半年業績在即，有三種情況可能出現。一是它的表現遠好過預期，股價一飛沖天。這個可能性比較低，因為大家已經把它預想得很好了。第二種情況是它的表現跟想像的差不多，那麼股價最多都是升穿20元水平，升回之前高位。對於現水平沽空的機構投資者來說，輸的空間在10%以內，值得博。相反，如果出來的半年業績有什麼差池，例如方便麵毛利率受壓，或者原來飲料市場並沒有大家想像中的高速增長，那麼屆時康師傅估值一定大幅向下拉。大家還記得兩個月前從160元跌到120元的騰訊(700)嗎？賭徒心態的機構投資者便是在等這樣的一個機會。
王雅媛為持牌人士，並沒有持有以上股票
根據尼爾森2009年12月最新的國內零售研究數據顯示，康師傅的方便麵銷售量與銷售額的市場佔有率分別為41.7%及54.6%，一直穩坐中國方便麵市場的龍頭。方便麵佔了康師傅近50%的營業額，而方便麵的原材料就是棕櫚油和小麥。根據集團的第一季報表，今年棕櫚油價格比較同期升了30%以上，這個已經令到康師傅叫苦連天。再加上上星期的一單新聞，小麥出口大國俄羅斯因受熱浪與乾旱影響，宣布今個月15日起暫時禁止小麥出口到年底。這便馬上引起了機構投資者沽空康師傅的興趣。
當然一個這麼簡單的理由不會導致大量的沽空盤出現，我認為機構投資者還看到另一點，就是賭估值過高的股票只要一有什麼壞消息出來，向下跌的空間可以非常可觀。以2010年第一季的每股盈利去計算，康師傅市盈率高達34倍。這麼高的估值主要是反映集團的兩方面的營運，一是國內方便麵的龍頭地位，二是國內飲料市場的高速增長。集團公佈半年業績在即，有三種情況可能出現。一是它的表現遠好過預期，股價一飛沖天。這個可能性比較低，因為大家已經把它預想得很好了。第二種情況是它的表現跟想像的差不多，那麼股價最多都是升穿20元水平，升回之前高位。對於現水平沽空的機構投資者來說，輸的空間在10%以內，值得博。相反，如果出來的半年業績有什麼差池，例如方便麵毛利率受壓，或者原來飲料市場並沒有大家想像中的高速增長，那麼屆時康師傅估值一定大幅向下拉。大家還記得兩個月前從160元跌到120元的騰訊(700)嗎？賭徒心態的機構投資者便是在等這樣的一個機會。
王雅媛為持牌人士，並沒有持有以上股票
2010年8月10日 星期二
Snack on the small-cap morsels
05/07/2010 Ben Jaglom
London’s listed food producers have proved more resistant to the effects of the downturn than companies across other sectors, since to state the obvious, people will always prioritise their need to eat while paring spending in other discretionary areas.
In the main, since they operate in such a defensive space, food producers tend to be good cash generators, and dependable dividend payers to boot. In spite of these attractions, the food production sector accounts for a relatively small portion of the overall AIM market. Yet among them are a number of attractive investment morsels, and there is a good degree of diversity on offer, too.
AIM businesses offering the prospect of salivating returns range from the world’s oldest fruit brand to a Chinese orange grower and a Liberian palm oil producer. However, it would be remiss not to mention that the sector does contain its fair share of highly speculative shells, and even some companies with rather questionable business practices. As ever, it is essential for investors to do their homework.
A fruitful investment
Scottish sweets and cake maker Lees Foods, which grew revenue by 13 per cent to £18.2 million in 2009 and pre-tax profits by more than 60 per cent to £612,000 – earnings per share fattened up by 68 per cent to almost 18p.
AIM-quoted Lees has a broad range of products, being behind the ‘Macaroon Bar’, a chocolate-covered coconut confectionery, as well as a series of seasonal products for Easter and Halloween.
Its robust recent growth reflects the breadth of its range, as well as the fact that cash-strapped consumers continue to purchase cheap and cheerful edible luxuries during the economic doom and gloom.
Expanding its brand and exporting products to the US, France, Australia, Kuwait and elsewhere, analysts at Shore Capital see Lees growing profits by 28 per cent to £780,000 and earnings by 31 per cent to 23.6p this year. Debt free, Lees should also serve up a 6.7p dividend
02 August, 2010
A statement by the firm said: “The company remains cautiously optimistic in respect of the second half of the year and expects that both sales and pre-tax profits will be ahead of market forecasts for the full year.”
For investors looking for exposure to more natural treats, there is always China-based Asian Citrus, the orange grower and seller that grew sales by 36 per cent to RMB 398 million (£40.2 million) in the six months to December and pre-tax profits by 65 per cent to RMB 248 million. This is a business with fearsome growth prospects, selling to China’s ever-expanding middle class, which is increasingly consuming items that were once considered luxuries, such as oranges and bananas. Significantly, orange consumption in China rose by 13 per cent to 5.8 million tonnes last year, driven by an increase in disposable income for millions of Chinese as well as the spread of supermarkets across the People’s Republic and into more remote locations.
For the current year to June, analysts will be looking for Asian Citrus to harvest RMB 330.4 million of pre-tax profit, producing earnings of circa 4.2p and placing the 51.5p shares on a palatable prospective multiple of 12.3.
PureCircle – phenomenal possibilities
PureCircle, the specialist developer and refiner of products made from a plant called stevia rebaudiana, also known as ‘sugarleaf’ and native to South and Central America, could prove another sweet punt. Sugarleaf has attracted a great deal of attention, since it can be used as a substitute for sugar, being very sweet, but without any of the calories associated with sugar intake.
Founded in 2002 by Russian magnate Magomet Malsagov, PureCircle is tempting the taste buds of investors, since stevia has been approved as a food ingredient in a number of countries including the USA, France and Switzerland. PureCircle has also built a refining plant in China and has already worked with PepsiCo to produce PureVia, used in drinks in PepsiCo’s flavoured water, tea and smoothies subsidiary, SoBe.
PureCircle is on a strong growth path, having generated a 74 per cent surge in sales to $37.5 million (£25.3 million) and profits up 7 per cent to the equivalent of £1.47 million in the half to December, driven by increased sales of stevia products to companies including Nestlé, Pepsi and Danone.
Mirabaud forecasts a more than doubling of PBT to $20 million for the year to June, giving increased earnings of 8.4p and leaving the shares selling for a rather pricey 33 times earnings. Having said that, this rating reflects the fact that investors are expecting such phenomenal returns from PureCircle should the stevia market become a viable global alternative to sugar.
London’s listed food producers have proved more resistant to the effects of the downturn than companies across other sectors, since to state the obvious, people will always prioritise their need to eat while paring spending in other discretionary areas.
In the main, since they operate in such a defensive space, food producers tend to be good cash generators, and dependable dividend payers to boot. In spite of these attractions, the food production sector accounts for a relatively small portion of the overall AIM market. Yet among them are a number of attractive investment morsels, and there is a good degree of diversity on offer, too.
AIM businesses offering the prospect of salivating returns range from the world’s oldest fruit brand to a Chinese orange grower and a Liberian palm oil producer. However, it would be remiss not to mention that the sector does contain its fair share of highly speculative shells, and even some companies with rather questionable business practices. As ever, it is essential for investors to do their homework.
A fruitful investment
Scottish sweets and cake maker Lees Foods, which grew revenue by 13 per cent to £18.2 million in 2009 and pre-tax profits by more than 60 per cent to £612,000 – earnings per share fattened up by 68 per cent to almost 18p.
AIM-quoted Lees has a broad range of products, being behind the ‘Macaroon Bar’, a chocolate-covered coconut confectionery, as well as a series of seasonal products for Easter and Halloween.
Its robust recent growth reflects the breadth of its range, as well as the fact that cash-strapped consumers continue to purchase cheap and cheerful edible luxuries during the economic doom and gloom.
Expanding its brand and exporting products to the US, France, Australia, Kuwait and elsewhere, analysts at Shore Capital see Lees growing profits by 28 per cent to £780,000 and earnings by 31 per cent to 23.6p this year. Debt free, Lees should also serve up a 6.7p dividend
02 August, 2010
A statement by the firm said: “The company remains cautiously optimistic in respect of the second half of the year and expects that both sales and pre-tax profits will be ahead of market forecasts for the full year.”
For investors looking for exposure to more natural treats, there is always China-based Asian Citrus, the orange grower and seller that grew sales by 36 per cent to RMB 398 million (£40.2 million) in the six months to December and pre-tax profits by 65 per cent to RMB 248 million. This is a business with fearsome growth prospects, selling to China’s ever-expanding middle class, which is increasingly consuming items that were once considered luxuries, such as oranges and bananas. Significantly, orange consumption in China rose by 13 per cent to 5.8 million tonnes last year, driven by an increase in disposable income for millions of Chinese as well as the spread of supermarkets across the People’s Republic and into more remote locations.
For the current year to June, analysts will be looking for Asian Citrus to harvest RMB 330.4 million of pre-tax profit, producing earnings of circa 4.2p and placing the 51.5p shares on a palatable prospective multiple of 12.3.
PureCircle – phenomenal possibilities
PureCircle, the specialist developer and refiner of products made from a plant called stevia rebaudiana, also known as ‘sugarleaf’ and native to South and Central America, could prove another sweet punt. Sugarleaf has attracted a great deal of attention, since it can be used as a substitute for sugar, being very sweet, but without any of the calories associated with sugar intake.
Founded in 2002 by Russian magnate Magomet Malsagov, PureCircle is tempting the taste buds of investors, since stevia has been approved as a food ingredient in a number of countries including the USA, France and Switzerland. PureCircle has also built a refining plant in China and has already worked with PepsiCo to produce PureVia, used in drinks in PepsiCo’s flavoured water, tea and smoothies subsidiary, SoBe.
PureCircle is on a strong growth path, having generated a 74 per cent surge in sales to $37.5 million (£25.3 million) and profits up 7 per cent to the equivalent of £1.47 million in the half to December, driven by increased sales of stevia products to companies including Nestlé, Pepsi and Danone.
Mirabaud forecasts a more than doubling of PBT to $20 million for the year to June, giving increased earnings of 8.4p and leaving the shares selling for a rather pricey 33 times earnings. Having said that, this rating reflects the fact that investors are expecting such phenomenal returns from PureCircle should the stevia market become a viable global alternative to sugar.
2010年8月9日 星期一
What is the real strategy of AMC?
I always believed they were the minnow who were planning to mine a massive Nickel reserve in Russia but after the recent presentation and RY comments I now see it very different. The phrase” best return to shareholders” is a common statement from CEO’s presentations as they want you to believe they are actually working for you and to get you the best return on your money. So how will AMC achieve this? By mining the stuff, I don’t think so. They are building a package to sell to the highest bidder. This will be triggered once the license is granted and in the mean time they must re validate the NPV to get the best negotiating power possible to get the best dear.
If they get the license the stock price will jump and probably re trace 20% from the high point in the first day. This will probably be the time most PI’s will jump off to get there cash after such a long time looking at a loss over the last year. I don’t think they will buy back in as they will be happy with their lot. But is this the best way to get the most out of AMC? The question I would like to ask is Will it be more beneficial to hold to the bitter end? Whatever that may be!
If it is a takeover / buyout could this be the best price for shareholders, alternatively they may just mine the stuff and dividend could be the achieved after a few years. (That would make a nice pension) So what answers that first statement” best return to shareholders”? I am not totally sure but these are the questions that are in my head.
Nickel is now at $10 per 1 lb, this puts $200 on the NPV with the Gurney reserve and the road cut, I estimate another 30 tons putting another 150m on the NPV.
There are other NPV uplift opportunities but first I will leave that out.
So $84 +$200 + $150 gives a very rough NPV of $434m divided down this is 210m shares @ $2.06. 1.29 pounds GBP per share.
There is also smelting savings Tax savings and increased grade % that could put another 200+ on the NPV adding another $1 to the total giving $3.06 per share.
This puts the share price at 1.91 pounds. Now if RY was looking for a takeover price I think he would be laying these figures on the table at the board meetings and saying what are we prepared to accept?. But this is all hot wind without the license. This is probably why he has knocked back any takeover offers as he will wait for the time when they really have something to sell.
So chaps do you jump on the announcement of the license or hold for a takeover. I am sure there would be a lot of PI’s out there who would be a little frustrated if they sold out for 40p and a takeover bid was much much more just a few weeks later.
This is just food for thought.
If they get the license the stock price will jump and probably re trace 20% from the high point in the first day. This will probably be the time most PI’s will jump off to get there cash after such a long time looking at a loss over the last year. I don’t think they will buy back in as they will be happy with their lot. But is this the best way to get the most out of AMC? The question I would like to ask is Will it be more beneficial to hold to the bitter end? Whatever that may be!
If it is a takeover / buyout could this be the best price for shareholders, alternatively they may just mine the stuff and dividend could be the achieved after a few years. (That would make a nice pension) So what answers that first statement” best return to shareholders”? I am not totally sure but these are the questions that are in my head.
Nickel is now at $10 per 1 lb, this puts $200 on the NPV with the Gurney reserve and the road cut, I estimate another 30 tons putting another 150m on the NPV.
There are other NPV uplift opportunities but first I will leave that out.
So $84 +$200 + $150 gives a very rough NPV of $434m divided down this is 210m shares @ $2.06. 1.29 pounds GBP per share.
There is also smelting savings Tax savings and increased grade % that could put another 200+ on the NPV adding another $1 to the total giving $3.06 per share.
This puts the share price at 1.91 pounds. Now if RY was looking for a takeover price I think he would be laying these figures on the table at the board meetings and saying what are we prepared to accept?. But this is all hot wind without the license. This is probably why he has knocked back any takeover offers as he will wait for the time when they really have something to sell.
So chaps do you jump on the announcement of the license or hold for a takeover. I am sure there would be a lot of PI’s out there who would be a little frustrated if they sold out for 40p and a takeover bid was much much more just a few weeks later.
This is just food for thought.
房地产到底有多大利润空间？
2010年08月04日 09:50 BJT 发表评论 (44)作者: feng.wang
标签： 综合, 房地产
北京读者 刘衍滔/文
楼市新政百日之际，住建部政策研究中心副主任王珏林在回答记者有关楼市是否会出现大面积的降价的提问时语出惊人，曰：“每个企业的房子并不多，房子卖一半就盈利了，他们没有必要大幅降价出售。”
“房子卖一半就盈利了”，等于说只要卖出一半即可收回全部成本，而剩下的另一半就相当于纯赚。按此推算，目前房地产行业至少还有50%的利润空间，至于毛利润则恐怕会高得令人乍舌。
作为国家房地产主管部门的官员，而且是房地产政策研究人员，相信王副主任的上述回答是有事实依据的。而这种事实依据，不说是来自对房地产行业的调查研究或者是财务分析，至少也是一种业内专家的权威判断。当然，或许也部分来自某些开发商的酒后真言。
调控了一年又一年，没想到时至今日房地产的利润率还是一柱擎天，怪不得经历了数轮新政之后，楼市不是回归了百姓，回归了自然，而是依旧高处不胜寒，甚至是乱花渐入迷人眼。由此便不难想象，房地产的利润在新的“国十条”出台之前是如何之高。同时也不难理解，为何每次调控时开发商不是反躬自问，而是责有烦言，要么委过于地价推高了房价，要么归咎于各项税费加大了开发成本，甚至还把房价过高的原因推到了那些无房不嫁女的丈母娘身上。总之，就是顾左右而言他，矢口不提高房价的根源就在那如黑洞般的利润空间。
好在王副主任没忘了把话说透，在说完“房子卖一半就盈利了”之后，紧接着又补充了一句“他们没有必要大幅降价出售。” 试想，利润空间有如此之大，开发商们怎么会选择“大幅度降价出售”呢，岂不是挥刀自宫。所以他们这次又一如既往地选择了与新政和民意死扛。至于说在这几年的调控中，开发商也时不时打点明折或是来点暗扣，那也只不过是给地方政府一点面子，或是象征性地玩一下假摔。一言以蔽之，还是在捂着那利润空间打转。
但是，几经调控之后，为何房地产还有这么大的利润空间，又是谁给房地产留下了这么大的利润空间呢？难道数轮新政都未曾想到这个关键点？风起于青萍之末，或许还是调控的初衷离老百姓的期望太远，或许是多年来蓄积的小资情调导致调控时总是心太软。（完）
标签： 综合, 房地产
北京读者 刘衍滔/文
楼市新政百日之际，住建部政策研究中心副主任王珏林在回答记者有关楼市是否会出现大面积的降价的提问时语出惊人，曰：“每个企业的房子并不多，房子卖一半就盈利了，他们没有必要大幅降价出售。”
“房子卖一半就盈利了”，等于说只要卖出一半即可收回全部成本，而剩下的另一半就相当于纯赚。按此推算，目前房地产行业至少还有50%的利润空间，至于毛利润则恐怕会高得令人乍舌。
作为国家房地产主管部门的官员，而且是房地产政策研究人员，相信王副主任的上述回答是有事实依据的。而这种事实依据，不说是来自对房地产行业的调查研究或者是财务分析，至少也是一种业内专家的权威判断。当然，或许也部分来自某些开发商的酒后真言。
调控了一年又一年，没想到时至今日房地产的利润率还是一柱擎天，怪不得经历了数轮新政之后，楼市不是回归了百姓，回归了自然，而是依旧高处不胜寒，甚至是乱花渐入迷人眼。由此便不难想象，房地产的利润在新的“国十条”出台之前是如何之高。同时也不难理解，为何每次调控时开发商不是反躬自问，而是责有烦言，要么委过于地价推高了房价，要么归咎于各项税费加大了开发成本，甚至还把房价过高的原因推到了那些无房不嫁女的丈母娘身上。总之，就是顾左右而言他，矢口不提高房价的根源就在那如黑洞般的利润空间。
好在王副主任没忘了把话说透，在说完“房子卖一半就盈利了”之后，紧接着又补充了一句“他们没有必要大幅降价出售。” 试想，利润空间有如此之大，开发商们怎么会选择“大幅度降价出售”呢，岂不是挥刀自宫。所以他们这次又一如既往地选择了与新政和民意死扛。至于说在这几年的调控中，开发商也时不时打点明折或是来点暗扣，那也只不过是给地方政府一点面子，或是象征性地玩一下假摔。一言以蔽之，还是在捂着那利润空间打转。
但是，几经调控之后，为何房地产还有这么大的利润空间，又是谁给房地产留下了这么大的利润空间呢？难道数轮新政都未曾想到这个关键点？风起于青萍之末，或许还是调控的初衷离老百姓的期望太远，或许是多年来蓄积的小资情调导致调控时总是心太软。（完）
2010年8月8日 星期日
旭光 (0067)
全球第二大芒硝生產商
四川省三個礦區採礦權，以開採鈣芒硝礦石，進行加工製造成為天然芒硝
目前全球鈣芒硝蘊藏量約三百五十三億噸，
中國佔一百零五億噸，位居第一 (佔全球總蘊藏量88%，絕大部分集中在四川及江蘇)
第二為美國的八億六千萬噸
全球天然芒硝年產量一千一百六十萬噸，合成芒硝 僅一百四十萬噸，
中國分別佔 九百一十萬噸及 一百萬噸。
旭光的三個礦區可採芒硝儲量為5720萬噸，年產能一百六十萬噸 (2009)，為全球第二大生產商。於 2008年，以產量計，旭光於中國市場份額23.2％，亦佔全球份額11.3％。
生產3種主要芒硝
- 普通芒硝、
- 特種芒硝
- 藥用芒硝 (中國唯一獲批及認證的藥用芒硝生產商)
普通芒硝與特種芒硝主要用於洗滌粉的活性劑，增加流動性而提高洗滌效率，用作紡織及玻璃行業的助劑。
藥用芒硝主要用於中西藥 - 溫和瀉劑及消炎劑。
09 年毛利9,790萬元，
溢利5,044萬元(上升23.3%)
整體毛利率 - 72.9% (遠高於同業)
市盈率 7.8
Positive
1) 銳意開拓芒硝產品的應用範圍
- 生產下游成藥芒硝及其他高毛利芒硝產品包括飼料芒硝等 (芒硝用途不斷增加，對盈利增長有幫助)
2) 收購眉山市東坡區岳溝礦區的採礦權作為第四個礦區，10下半年正式投產, 總產能將增至二百八十萬噸，較去年年底增加75％。
旭光會於現有客戶提出定單佔預計產量 50%後，才會增加相關產品的生產，公司不憂慮新產品的市場問題。
預期隨着藥用芒硝產量增加，特種芒硝的銷售比例將於明年底降至 60%。
3) 市場並無同類「芒硝股」可作比較，但if 以資源股視之，旭光低PE的吸引力不弱。
4) 正與一家內地數一數二的芒硝生產商相談洽購，料會在今年底完成。收購完成後，會成為全球最大的芒硝生產商。(扣除今年預計的5.6億的營運成本，餘下的現全流3.4億足以完成收購，沒有額外融資的需要)
5) 收購對象主要生產普通芒硝，計劃改善其設備，以在短期內投產特種及藥用芒硝。洽購的價格亦不會太高.
扣除今年預計的5.6億的營運成本，餘下的現全流3.4億足以完成收購
6) 10年初特別投放資金改造礦場的設施，以增加藥用芒硝的生產比重。預計今年藥用芒硝的生產量會增加20萬噸，銷售額亦會有一倍的升幅
7) 去年12月主席押急挫至1.76元新低，現已重建升軌。控股股東Nice Ace Tech 確認，2010年7月30日悉數清還中銀國際2.3億元貸款，免除股份抵押。 (索郎多吉是騰中的大股東，持有20%權益。騰中重工未能收購悍馬，對旭光可能間接屬於好事，索郎多吉可以避免動用較多資金於相關活動。)
8) 10年底將藥用芒硝的銷售佔總銷售額比例，由09 的 20%增至 30%
9) 藥用芒硝09年售價就大升30%, 售價係普通芒硝的10倍
10) 賺錢能力勝同業 - 中國第一大的芒硝生產商南風化工去年就要每股蝕0.04人民幣,净利潤增長率為-208%.由此,大家可見芒硝的經營環境唔多好,但係旭光竟然仲有得賺.Negative
*藥用芒硝定價不得超過四川物價局規定的上限每噸4500元人民幣
09年10月，旭光發行 2.50億美元2014年到期周息12厘的優先票據，息率之高令人奇怪。集資所得，其中1.23億美元用作以債易債，餘款用於未來擴展。票據在星洲掛牌，近價88%。資金好緊張
旭光上市集資約8億元，主要用於償還銀行貸款。 資金好緊張
雖然盈利持續上升, 但現金流持續流出, 06-08年都係資金淨流出, 應收帳又大升, 存貨又大升。
大股東又抵押股份, 睇黎大股東好需要錢, 而且上市好多都係舊股, 上市係套現。
雖然加大產能, i-money 篇報導:「牧馬礦區的藥用芒硝的20萬噸生產中，暫時會以10%產量為目標，即大約為1萬至2萬噸. 即係產能增加, 但係銷量無同時增加, 咁樣營運成本會急升, 營業額未必能急升，而且借貸又多, 遲d 加息, 利息負擔將會影響佢地今年的盈利。
主要成本係煤炭, 今年煤炭成左唔少呢!
超弱現金流 - 話09上半年賺多左20%.但係無真銀. 經營活動所得現金淨額只有82,607千人民幣.比上年同期的497864千人民幣,大大縮小83.4%.又話自己賺?旭光而家就好似大家抄股一樣,D錢都未入袋,小心到時入唔到呀.
未收回結餘的賬齡 - 被拖數半年以上的賬目由上年的4192千人民幣,大升53%至6400千人民幣
保薦人中金對集團未來兩年盈利十分樂觀，預測09及10年純利將達5.78及9.29億元。
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/trevor_yuen/article?mid=625
四川省三個礦區採礦權，以開採鈣芒硝礦石，進行加工製造成為天然芒硝
芒硝為一種可服食、水溶性、白色、晶體狀及易吸收水分的礦物粉末，是化工行業及輕工業重要原料，廣泛用於製造洗滌粉、紡織品、玻璃、化學原料及藥品。芒硝可由礦物生產，也是化學副產品，在若干化學物過程中所產生的合成芒硝，產量不多，純度亦較低。
目前全球鈣芒硝蘊藏量約三百五十三億噸，
中國佔一百零五億噸，位居第一 (佔全球總蘊藏量88%，絕大部分集中在四川及江蘇)
第二為美國的八億六千萬噸
全球天然芒硝年產量一千一百六十萬噸，合成芒硝 僅一百四十萬噸，
中國分別佔 九百一十萬噸及 一百萬噸。
旭光的三個礦區可採芒硝儲量為5720萬噸，年產能一百六十萬噸 (2009)，為全球第二大生產商。於 2008年，以產量計，旭光於中國市場份額23.2％，亦佔全球份額11.3％。
生產3種主要芒硝
- 普通芒硝、
- 特種芒硝
- 藥用芒硝 (中國唯一獲批及認證的藥用芒硝生產商)
普通芒硝與特種芒硝主要用於洗滌粉的活性劑，增加流動性而提高洗滌效率，用作紡織及玻璃行業的助劑。
藥用芒硝主要用於中西藥 - 溫和瀉劑及消炎劑。
09 年毛利9,790萬元，
溢利5,044萬元(上升23.3%)
整體毛利率 - 72.9% (遠高於同業)
市盈率 7.8
Positive
1) 銳意開拓芒硝產品的應用範圍
- 生產下游成藥芒硝及其他高毛利芒硝產品包括飼料芒硝等 (芒硝用途不斷增加，對盈利增長有幫助)
2) 收購眉山市東坡區岳溝礦區的採礦權作為第四個礦區，10下半年正式投產, 總產能將增至二百八十萬噸，較去年年底增加75％。
旭光會於現有客戶提出定單佔預計產量 50%後，才會增加相關產品的生產，公司不憂慮新產品的市場問題。
預期隨着藥用芒硝產量增加，特種芒硝的銷售比例將於明年底降至 60%。
3) 市場並無同類「芒硝股」可作比較，但if 以資源股視之，旭光低PE的吸引力不弱。
4) 正與一家內地數一數二的芒硝生產商相談洽購，料會在今年底完成。收購完成後，會成為全球最大的芒硝生產商。(扣除今年預計的5.6億的營運成本，餘下的現全流3.4億足以完成收購，沒有額外融資的需要)
5) 收購對象主要生產普通芒硝，計劃改善其設備，以在短期內投產特種及藥用芒硝。洽購的價格亦不會太高.
扣除今年預計的5.6億的營運成本，餘下的現全流3.4億足以完成收購
6) 10年初特別投放資金改造礦場的設施，以增加藥用芒硝的生產比重。預計今年藥用芒硝的生產量會增加20萬噸，銷售額亦會有一倍的升幅
7) 去年12月主席押急挫至1.76元新低，現已重建升軌。控股股東Nice Ace Tech 確認，2010年7月30日悉數清還中銀國際2.3億元貸款，免除股份抵押。 (索郎多吉是騰中的大股東，持有20%權益。騰中重工未能收購悍馬，對旭光可能間接屬於好事，索郎多吉可以避免動用較多資金於相關活動。)
8) 10年底將藥用芒硝的銷售佔總銷售額比例，由09 的 20%增至 30%
9) 藥用芒硝09年售價就大升30%, 售價係普通芒硝的10倍
10) 賺錢能力勝同業 - 中國第一大的芒硝生產商南風化工去年就要每股蝕0.04人民幣,净利潤增長率為-208%.由此,大家可見芒硝的經營環境唔多好,但係旭光竟然仲有得賺.Negative
*藥用芒硝定價不得超過四川物價局規定的上限每噸4500元人民幣
09年10月，旭光發行 2.50億美元2014年到期周息12厘的優先票據，息率之高令人奇怪。集資所得，其中1.23億美元用作以債易債，餘款用於未來擴展。票據在星洲掛牌，近價88%。資金好緊張
旭光上市集資約8億元，主要用於償還銀行貸款。 資金好緊張
雖然盈利持續上升, 但現金流持續流出, 06-08年都係資金淨流出, 應收帳又大升, 存貨又大升。
大股東又抵押股份, 睇黎大股東好需要錢, 而且上市好多都係舊股, 上市係套現。
雖然加大產能, i-money 篇報導:「牧馬礦區的藥用芒硝的20萬噸生產中，暫時會以10%產量為目標，即大約為1萬至2萬噸. 即係產能增加, 但係銷量無同時增加, 咁樣營運成本會急升, 營業額未必能急升，而且借貸又多, 遲d 加息, 利息負擔將會影響佢地今年的盈利。
主要成本係煤炭, 今年煤炭成左唔少呢!
超弱現金流 - 話09上半年賺多左20%.但係無真銀. 經營活動所得現金淨額只有82,607千人民幣.比上年同期的497864千人民幣,大大縮小83.4%.又話自己賺?旭光而家就好似大家抄股一樣,D錢都未入袋,小心到時入唔到呀.
未收回結餘的賬齡 - 被拖數半年以上的賬目由上年的4192千人民幣,大升53%至6400千人民幣
保薦人中金對集團未來兩年盈利十分樂觀，預測09及10年純利將達5.78及9.29億元。
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/trevor_yuen/article?mid=625
2010年8月5日 星期四
Amur Minerals Corporation (AMC)
Far East Russian exploration and development Company last week announced that it had raised £1.24 million by way of a placing at 3.5p each. The current mid-price is above the placing price. In addition, the Company has agreed to issue a further 1,428,570 new ordinary shares at 3.5p to its CEO Robin Young in lieu of salary that is owed to him.
The proceeds will be used to fund the ongoing programmes at Kun-Manie, the Company's main nickel exploration project. Work is focused on the areas between the drilled deposits where successful results have the potential to enlarge the stated resource and reserve.
The total Russian approved reserve currently stands at 31.7 million tonnes of ore and averages 0.64% nickel and 0.18% copper. An independently compiled pre-feasibility study of Kun-Manie carried out in 2007 incorporating a $7.50/lb nickel price, indicates a Post Tax NPV (10%) of $84 million with an IRR of 15.7% which will be updated in the near term using information acquired over the last two years. This placing provides a stable source of funds from a cornerstone investor.
Concurrent with the placing, the board has been restructured. Willie McLucas and Eric McAuslan have resigned as Non Executive Directors of the Company and on the same date Brian Charles Savage has been appointed as a Non-Executive Director of the Company.
Brian is a founder of Frontier Mining Limited and served as a Director since that company's formation in August 1998, acting as Chief Executive Officer between 2001 and 2009.
Amur Minerals gained a Certificate of Discovery in April 2009 which is the intermediate stage to being awarded a Mining Licence. In order to encourage exploration in Russia, the government could compensate exploration companies that have gained a Certificate of Discovery but then subsequently fail to be issued with a Mining Licence. For nickel projects, this compensation runs at 140% of sunk costs. The management team has a track record of working their way through the Russia mining licensing system to gain valuable licences, permits and approvals.
The board has reported that progress has been made towards gaining a Mining Licence and a decision is expected in the next six months. Given the scale of compensation available, it appears to us unlikely that the award of a Certificate of Discovery would not be followed by the granting of a Mining Licence.
In recent decades there have been few economic nickel sulphide discoveries. To meet increasing demand lateritic nickel projects have been developed that require very expensive processing plants resulting in much higher costs of production.
In the coming years the demand from the emerging countries, plus a return of positive growth from the developed world, is expected to increase stainless steel production. Peer group analysis suggests that Amur Minerals could attract a valuation similar to nickel sulphide exploration companies such as Starfield Resources or Victory Nickel of around £23.7 million to £25.7 million.
The Pre-Feasibility Study gave the project a NPV of $84 million which equates to 23.5p per share. This could be the target price when a Mining Licence is granted. At these levels, we recommend picking up stock.
The proceeds will be used to fund the ongoing programmes at Kun-Manie, the Company's main nickel exploration project. Work is focused on the areas between the drilled deposits where successful results have the potential to enlarge the stated resource and reserve.
The total Russian approved reserve currently stands at 31.7 million tonnes of ore and averages 0.64% nickel and 0.18% copper. An independently compiled pre-feasibility study of Kun-Manie carried out in 2007 incorporating a $7.50/lb nickel price, indicates a Post Tax NPV (10%) of $84 million with an IRR of 15.7% which will be updated in the near term using information acquired over the last two years. This placing provides a stable source of funds from a cornerstone investor.
Concurrent with the placing, the board has been restructured. Willie McLucas and Eric McAuslan have resigned as Non Executive Directors of the Company and on the same date Brian Charles Savage has been appointed as a Non-Executive Director of the Company.
Brian is a founder of Frontier Mining Limited and served as a Director since that company's formation in August 1998, acting as Chief Executive Officer between 2001 and 2009.
Amur Minerals gained a Certificate of Discovery in April 2009 which is the intermediate stage to being awarded a Mining Licence. In order to encourage exploration in Russia, the government could compensate exploration companies that have gained a Certificate of Discovery but then subsequently fail to be issued with a Mining Licence. For nickel projects, this compensation runs at 140% of sunk costs. The management team has a track record of working their way through the Russia mining licensing system to gain valuable licences, permits and approvals.
The board has reported that progress has been made towards gaining a Mining Licence and a decision is expected in the next six months. Given the scale of compensation available, it appears to us unlikely that the award of a Certificate of Discovery would not be followed by the granting of a Mining Licence.
In recent decades there have been few economic nickel sulphide discoveries. To meet increasing demand lateritic nickel projects have been developed that require very expensive processing plants resulting in much higher costs of production.
In the coming years the demand from the emerging countries, plus a return of positive growth from the developed world, is expected to increase stainless steel production. Peer group analysis suggests that Amur Minerals could attract a valuation similar to nickel sulphide exploration companies such as Starfield Resources or Victory Nickel of around £23.7 million to £25.7 million.
The Pre-Feasibility Study gave the project a NPV of $84 million which equates to 23.5p per share. This could be the target price when a Mining Licence is granted. At these levels, we recommend picking up stock.
2010年8月4日 星期三
天大石油管材 (0839)
Business
生產及銷售石油與天然氣業的專用無縫管，主要是油井管、套管及油氣化工管
套管是支撐油氣井井壁的鋼管，
油管是油氣井打好固井後，在油層套管中設置的，讓油氣從此涌至地面的專用無縫管。
中國油井管生產商第七
客戶Positive
中石化（0386）、中石油（0857）公司的主要客戶、中海油田（2883）、中國勝利油田高原石油、天津天鋼石油、天津市石油管材、大港油田集團、達力普石油專用、滄州華北石油、無錫西姆萊斯石油專用、天津寶鋼臣貿及魯勝實華貿易，
原油需求增長和油價走高，將刺激石油企業積極進行原油開採? (fool have different opinion) 中石化及中石油均非常積極開採原由，對天大油管的需求會更加大
新廠在今年1月3日投產，產能30萬噸，使公司總產能達至65萬噴噸 (+86%)
公司被認定為高新技術企業，三年內按照１５％的優惠稅率繳納企業所得稅
首半年的產銷量 -去年全年約83%，產品平均售價升逾14.6%假設下半年與上半年看齊，全年盈利可增1倍至4億元，每股盈利48.8分，或55.5港仙
估計中期盈利已達/超過2009年度全年盈利 2億（人民幣）每股盈利24.4分,
集團歷來重視應收賬款的管理
鄧普頓基金、HILLHOUSE CAPITAL及嘉實基金持有股份，成本在09年12月4港元承接配股。
花旗 - 09年收入符合花旗預期，純利較花旗預期高7%，主要由於政府補貼高於預期，及獲遠期貨幣合約淨收益1100萬元人民幣。
生產及銷售石油與天然氣業的專用無縫管，主要是油井管、套管及油氣化工管
套管是支撐油氣井井壁的鋼管，
油管是油氣井打好固井後，在油層套管中設置的，讓油氣從此涌至地面的專用無縫管。
中國油井管生產商第七
客戶Positive
中石化（0386）、中石油（0857）公司的主要客戶、中海油田（2883）、中國勝利油田高原石油、天津天鋼石油、天津市石油管材、大港油田集團、達力普石油專用、滄州華北石油、無錫西姆萊斯石油專用、天津寶鋼臣貿及魯勝實華貿易，
原油需求增長和油價走高，將刺激石油企業積極進行原油開採? (fool have different opinion) 中石化及中石油均非常積極開採原由，對天大油管的需求會更加大
新廠在今年1月3日投產，產能30萬噸，使公司總產能達至65萬噴噸 (+86%)
公司被認定為高新技術企業，三年內按照１５％的優惠稅率繳納企業所得稅
首半年的產銷量 -去年全年約83%，產品平均售價升逾14.6%假設下半年與上半年看齊，全年盈利可增1倍至4億元，每股盈利48.8分，或55.5港仙
估計中期盈利已達/超過2009年度全年盈利 2億（人民幣）每股盈利24.4分,
集團歷來重視應收賬款的管理
鄧普頓基金、HILLHOUSE CAPITAL及嘉實基金持有股份，成本在09年12月4港元承接配股。
花旗 - 09年收入符合花旗預期，純利較花旗預期高7%，主要由於政府補貼高於預期，及獲遠期貨幣合約淨收益1100萬元人民幣。
中国钢铁业料掀结构调整 大钢企将成最大赢家
* 钢铁业第二次"去库存化"势在必行
* 市场倒逼和政策压力或将启动钢铁业结构调整大幕
* 钢企盈利将呈现两极分化
* 大型钢企更可能成为结构调整受益方
作者 李文科/邵晓忆
路透北京8月3日电---中国钢铁业结构调整已讲了多年,但至今未见明显效果.不过随着成本及库存上升压力日增,下半年这一进程料将被迫真正拉开帷幕,大型钢企或将成为最大赢家.
钢材成本上涨、商业库存上升、需求趋缓、出口受阻,中国钢铁业目前正面临艰难处境,第二次"去库存化"将成为国内钢厂在高成本和竞争激烈背景下的必然选择.
实际上,不仅是中国,全球钢铁产能都处于产能过剩状态,中国钢铁工业协会名誉会长吴溪淳坦言,下半年或至少是第三季度,是全球性的钢铁减产以应对钢价下跌的调整阶段.
"讲了多少年的钢铁行业结构调整,下半年可能真正开始了."吴溪淳表示,"一是市场倒逼,大规模政府推动型投资没有了,出口没有了....这两条出口堵住了,(钢铁业)不搞结构调整怎麽办."
6月份以来部分钢铁企业已经开始减产,随着库存压力加大以及成本倒挂,钢厂限产范围继续扩大,唐钢、武钢(600005.SS: 行情)、沙钢、攀钢等大型企业步入限产行列.吴溪淳称,7月份的前20天,钢协会员企业已经有40%开始减产.
放眼全球,钢铁大佬独联体、欧盟、北美的钢厂减产行动正在继续,中国7、8月份减产亦已成定局.
中国7月中旬钢铁产量较上旬略降,延续6月以来回落趋势.虽然钢价自4月下旬连跌近三个月之後,在7月中旬开始重振拉升之势.但後市受库存高企、宏观调控继续以及出口不畅等因素影响,钢市反转仍需时日.
宝钢(600019.SS: 行情)、武钢、鞍钢(000898.SZ: 行情)(0347.HK: 行情)三大钢厂8月份的价格政策出台在即,业内普遍预计,下调钢材价格是主流方向.
**结构调整被"逼上梁山"**
业内人士和分析师指出,中国钢企失去了第一次"去库存化"时左右逢源的良好局面,目前正遭遇内外夹击的困境,监管层和行业协会数年推动无明显成效的钢铁业结构调整已面临"逼上梁山"之势,很难有回头的机会,减产成为下半年中国钢铁业的主题词.
而此次"去库存化"与上一次已然有了本质的区别,今年下半年宏观经济各项指标升幅将呈现回落之势,一揽子政策措施效应亦将呈现减退势头,因为刺激政策引发的超常增长正逐渐转入正常增长.
除了宏观经济大环境影响钢材需求之外,钢铁业还遭遇了产能过剩、成本高企、库存上升、出口受阻以及监管层和协会强化政策法规的约束力等多重压力.
"三季度是去库存化关键时期."中钢协常务副会长罗冰生表示,"如果三季度总量降不下来,去库存化效果不明显,那麽严峻态势还有可能延伸到四季度."
吴溪淳则强调,第二次去库存化将是一个缓慢而曲折的过程,在第二次去库存化完成之前,在钢产量随着净出口减少和固定资产投资消费钢材增势减弱而进行足够的减产之前,钢材市场价格难于较快回升,再加上原材料市场价格波动以及国际市场行情影响,今年下半年钢材市场大部分时间将处于中低价位的不稳定的震荡阶段.
中国钢铁业第一次去库存发生在2008年下半年金融危机到来时.罗冰生强调,当时由于需求大幅下降,钢企主动减产,库存总量下降.但现在第二次去库存化,是在国内国际市场总体供大于求态势下提出的,目前钢价下降及钢铁生产成本上升,将有利于限制钢铁总量的高增长.
根据兰格钢铁信息研究中心监测的7大重点钢材品种,至6月的最後一周,其中6个品种的价格已经跌破了成本线,且成本与市场价格倒挂幅度呈加大趋势.而全国29个主要城市钢材社会库存调查数据则显示,自5月份国内钢铁产量创新高後,钢材社会库存呈持续升势,到5月中旬後,社会库存持续徘徊在1,600万吨左右,进入7月後仍居高不下.
中钢协提供数据则显示,上半年平均日产粗钢178.6万吨,比上年平均日产156万吨增长14.5%,相当于年产粗钢6.5亿吨的水平,呈高增长的态势.但与此同时,国内粗钢表观消费量却呈现需求增幅逐月下降之势.今年1月份中国国内市场粗钢表观消费量同比增长27.41%,以後增幅逐月下降,6月份降至-1.14%,需求增长对生产增长的拉动作用明显减弱.
与此同时,国外市场的需求同样不容乐观.目前国际钢材市场亦为供大于求,目前钢材价格的降价趋势还在发展,加上国际贸易保护主义抬头以及中国自7月中旬起取消了热轧板卷、中厚板、大型型钢等品种的出口退税,都必将抑制下半年钢材出口数量.
中国自7月15日起取消部分钢材、有色金属加工材、玉米淀粉、医药及化工等商品的出口退税,涉及钢铁产品48种,囊括几乎全部热轧板带、型材产品,取消原有9%的出口退税.
**谁将笑到最後?**
一般而言,行业重组对于龙头股或大企业最为有利.专家指出,此次结构调整或许也不例外,最终的受益者估计将是那些"有准备"的大型钢企.
实际上,自5月钢材价格不断下跌以来,随着铁矿石、焦煤等原燃料价格不断走高,一些企业已经难堪重负,陷入亏损.中钢协专家坦言,这种态势在下半年难以根本扭转.
罗冰生周二即表示,受供大于求、钢价下跌及成本上升影响,7月钢企盈利将较6月进一步下降,三季度钢企盈利形势相当严峻.钢企6月利润已出现环比下降37.77%.
"(结构调整)就是考验钢企的市场竞争力,这是好事,"吴溪淳表示,淘汰落後产能,推进产业结构升级,最根本的还得依靠法律手段和市场竞争.
钢铁业结构调整"是一个漫长的过程,谁能很好地顺应这个趋势,谁就受益最大,"中国联合钢铁网分析师胡艳平强调,大企业的优势是比较明显的,它们更容易获取政策支持.因此上市公司的盈利水平相差会比较大,从1-5月份的钢企盈利情况亦可见一斑,宝钢、鞍钢这些以精品板材为主的钢厂盈利状况比较好,估计全年也会比较好.
不仅如此,钢铁业结构调整还将加速钢企盈利状况的两极分化.吴溪淳指出,钢企间自有铁矿所占比例的不同、国外权益矿占有量和经济收益不同、高附加值、高技术含量产品结构的不同等因素,将导致钢企间经营效益的差距明显拉大.
中钢协透露,协会重点统计的钢企上半年实现利润507.18亿元人民币,同比增长21.22倍,但6月利润环比下降37.77%.上半年大中型钢铁企业销售利润率只有3.47%,低于工业行业的平均盈利水平.
而在今年前5个月,全国规模以上工业企业平均销售收入利润率为6.07%,中钢协会员企业平均为3.67%,宝钢为11.55%,鞍钢为6.48%,河北钢铁集团2.77%,沙钢集团为4.78%,另有会员钢铁企业7家亏损.(完)
* 市场倒逼和政策压力或将启动钢铁业结构调整大幕
* 钢企盈利将呈现两极分化
* 大型钢企更可能成为结构调整受益方
作者 李文科/邵晓忆
路透北京8月3日电---中国钢铁业结构调整已讲了多年,但至今未见明显效果.不过随着成本及库存上升压力日增,下半年这一进程料将被迫真正拉开帷幕,大型钢企或将成为最大赢家.
钢材成本上涨、商业库存上升、需求趋缓、出口受阻,中国钢铁业目前正面临艰难处境,第二次"去库存化"将成为国内钢厂在高成本和竞争激烈背景下的必然选择.
实际上,不仅是中国,全球钢铁产能都处于产能过剩状态,中国钢铁工业协会名誉会长吴溪淳坦言,下半年或至少是第三季度,是全球性的钢铁减产以应对钢价下跌的调整阶段.
"讲了多少年的钢铁行业结构调整,下半年可能真正开始了."吴溪淳表示,"一是市场倒逼,大规模政府推动型投资没有了,出口没有了....这两条出口堵住了,(钢铁业)不搞结构调整怎麽办."
6月份以来部分钢铁企业已经开始减产,随着库存压力加大以及成本倒挂,钢厂限产范围继续扩大,唐钢、武钢(600005.SS: 行情)、沙钢、攀钢等大型企业步入限产行列.吴溪淳称,7月份的前20天,钢协会员企业已经有40%开始减产.
放眼全球,钢铁大佬独联体、欧盟、北美的钢厂减产行动正在继续,中国7、8月份减产亦已成定局.
中国7月中旬钢铁产量较上旬略降,延续6月以来回落趋势.虽然钢价自4月下旬连跌近三个月之後,在7月中旬开始重振拉升之势.但後市受库存高企、宏观调控继续以及出口不畅等因素影响,钢市反转仍需时日.
宝钢(600019.SS: 行情)、武钢、鞍钢(000898.SZ: 行情)(0347.HK: 行情)三大钢厂8月份的价格政策出台在即,业内普遍预计,下调钢材价格是主流方向.
**结构调整被"逼上梁山"**
业内人士和分析师指出,中国钢企失去了第一次"去库存化"时左右逢源的良好局面,目前正遭遇内外夹击的困境,监管层和行业协会数年推动无明显成效的钢铁业结构调整已面临"逼上梁山"之势,很难有回头的机会,减产成为下半年中国钢铁业的主题词.
而此次"去库存化"与上一次已然有了本质的区别,今年下半年宏观经济各项指标升幅将呈现回落之势,一揽子政策措施效应亦将呈现减退势头,因为刺激政策引发的超常增长正逐渐转入正常增长.
除了宏观经济大环境影响钢材需求之外,钢铁业还遭遇了产能过剩、成本高企、库存上升、出口受阻以及监管层和协会强化政策法规的约束力等多重压力.
"三季度是去库存化关键时期."中钢协常务副会长罗冰生表示,"如果三季度总量降不下来,去库存化效果不明显,那麽严峻态势还有可能延伸到四季度."
吴溪淳则强调,第二次去库存化将是一个缓慢而曲折的过程,在第二次去库存化完成之前,在钢产量随着净出口减少和固定资产投资消费钢材增势减弱而进行足够的减产之前,钢材市场价格难于较快回升,再加上原材料市场价格波动以及国际市场行情影响,今年下半年钢材市场大部分时间将处于中低价位的不稳定的震荡阶段.
中国钢铁业第一次去库存发生在2008年下半年金融危机到来时.罗冰生强调,当时由于需求大幅下降,钢企主动减产,库存总量下降.但现在第二次去库存化,是在国内国际市场总体供大于求态势下提出的,目前钢价下降及钢铁生产成本上升,将有利于限制钢铁总量的高增长.
根据兰格钢铁信息研究中心监测的7大重点钢材品种,至6月的最後一周,其中6个品种的价格已经跌破了成本线,且成本与市场价格倒挂幅度呈加大趋势.而全国29个主要城市钢材社会库存调查数据则显示,自5月份国内钢铁产量创新高後,钢材社会库存呈持续升势,到5月中旬後,社会库存持续徘徊在1,600万吨左右,进入7月後仍居高不下.
中钢协提供数据则显示,上半年平均日产粗钢178.6万吨,比上年平均日产156万吨增长14.5%,相当于年产粗钢6.5亿吨的水平,呈高增长的态势.但与此同时,国内粗钢表观消费量却呈现需求增幅逐月下降之势.今年1月份中国国内市场粗钢表观消费量同比增长27.41%,以後增幅逐月下降,6月份降至-1.14%,需求增长对生产增长的拉动作用明显减弱.
与此同时,国外市场的需求同样不容乐观.目前国际钢材市场亦为供大于求,目前钢材价格的降价趋势还在发展,加上国际贸易保护主义抬头以及中国自7月中旬起取消了热轧板卷、中厚板、大型型钢等品种的出口退税,都必将抑制下半年钢材出口数量.
中国自7月15日起取消部分钢材、有色金属加工材、玉米淀粉、医药及化工等商品的出口退税,涉及钢铁产品48种,囊括几乎全部热轧板带、型材产品,取消原有9%的出口退税.
**谁将笑到最後?**
一般而言,行业重组对于龙头股或大企业最为有利.专家指出,此次结构调整或许也不例外,最终的受益者估计将是那些"有准备"的大型钢企.
实际上,自5月钢材价格不断下跌以来,随着铁矿石、焦煤等原燃料价格不断走高,一些企业已经难堪重负,陷入亏损.中钢协专家坦言,这种态势在下半年难以根本扭转.
罗冰生周二即表示,受供大于求、钢价下跌及成本上升影响,7月钢企盈利将较6月进一步下降,三季度钢企盈利形势相当严峻.钢企6月利润已出现环比下降37.77%.
"(结构调整)就是考验钢企的市场竞争力,这是好事,"吴溪淳表示,淘汰落後产能,推进产业结构升级,最根本的还得依靠法律手段和市场竞争.
钢铁业结构调整"是一个漫长的过程,谁能很好地顺应这个趋势,谁就受益最大,"中国联合钢铁网分析师胡艳平强调,大企业的优势是比较明显的,它们更容易获取政策支持.因此上市公司的盈利水平相差会比较大,从1-5月份的钢企盈利情况亦可见一斑,宝钢、鞍钢这些以精品板材为主的钢厂盈利状况比较好,估计全年也会比较好.
不仅如此,钢铁业结构调整还将加速钢企盈利状况的两极分化.吴溪淳指出,钢企间自有铁矿所占比例的不同、国外权益矿占有量和经济收益不同、高附加值、高技术含量产品结构的不同等因素,将导致钢企间经营效益的差距明显拉大.
中钢协透露,协会重点统计的钢企上半年实现利润507.18亿元人民币,同比增长21.22倍,但6月利润环比下降37.77%.上半年大中型钢铁企业销售利润率只有3.47%,低于工业行业的平均盈利水平.
而在今年前5个月,全国规模以上工业企业平均销售收入利润率为6.07%,中钢协会员企业平均为3.67%,宝钢为11.55%,鞍钢为6.48%,河北钢铁集团2.77%,沙钢集团为4.78%,另有会员钢铁企业7家亏损.(完)
中國財政部﹕重大專項進口將免徵進口關稅
中國財政部週二表示﹐對重大科技項目所需的某些國內不能生產的設備、零部件和原材料﹐政府將免徵進口關稅和進口環節增值稅。
財政部網站上的公告顯示﹐該措施將從7月15日起生效。這可能有助於中國增加進口﹐緩解中國的貿易失衡。
公告稱﹐上述重大科技項目包括核心電子器件、高端通用芯片及基礎軟件產品、極大規模集成電路製造裝備及成套工藝、新一代寬帶無線移動通信网、大型油氣田及煤層氣開發、大型先進壓水堆及高溫氣冷堆核電站等。
財政部網站上的公告顯示﹐該措施將從7月15日起生效。這可能有助於中國增加進口﹐緩解中國的貿易失衡。
公告稱﹐上述重大科技項目包括核心電子器件、高端通用芯片及基礎軟件產品、極大規模集成電路製造裝備及成套工藝、新一代寬帶無線移動通信网、大型油氣田及煤層氣開發、大型先進壓水堆及高溫氣冷堆核電站等。
2010年8月3日 星期二
《內房一周－何繼光》中、港空置率定義之別
《內房一周》今年初，國十條調控細則其中一項特別提到：「將房地產市場、住房保障、房屋租賃、房地產金融與稅收以及其他與住房和房地產相關的統計數據信息進行整合，加強房地產信息監測，切實提高房地產宏觀調控的工作效率與決策水平。」
至今，國內統計部門對樓市數據掌握不足，中央政府也深明問題所在，才公開要求各地方政府著手改善房地產透明度。發展商及代理所持資訊比買家充足，造成樓市資訊不對稱或壟斷在所難免，也因為此，買家容易基於數據不全而錯誤入市，對買家不公。
＊官方數據可信性仍有待改善＊
筆者估計不少地方政府對本區的樓價、租金、存貨量、空置率等的基礎物業數據仍未有系統的統計標準，導致業內人士在研究國內物業市場和進行項目可行性研究時往往遇到不少障礙，官方數據可信性仍有待改善。
簡單如商品房住宅均價，國內的計算方法，是將整區或全市的成交總金額，除以總成交面積，得出平均值，如７月份廣州十區一手住宅均價約１﹒０４萬元╱平方米。問題所在：如果某月豪宅物業成交大增，便會造成價高量跌的局面；又如某月政府推出較多數量的經適房，則該月全市樓價自然也會被大幅拖低。
略有統計學知識的朋友都會明白到，如果物業成交數據標準差（ｓｔａｎｄａｒｄ ｄｅｖｉａｔｉｏｎ）大，如豪宅和中小型住宅單位價格差距達６至８倍或以上（香港約３倍左右），則整個市場的樓價很容易取決於高端物業交投多寡，並非反映整個樓市的情況。
在香港，各大代理行早已採用了一些所謂藍籌屋苑的呎價作為指標，而差餉物業估價署也有提供「較受歡迎屋苑」的成交價格數據。由於屋苑內呎價差距小、成交量高、物業可比性高，得出的成交呎價有指標作用。在美國，城市房價多數採用中位數以解決標準差問題，而買家亦較容易比較各大美國城市的樓價水平。
＊另一具爭議數據便是空置率＊
另一個較具爭議的統計數據，便是空置率。其實，國內房屋管理及統計局對空置率的理解，跟香港以致很多已發展國家樓市的理解大有不同。
在香港，差餉物業估價署均會在每年年底，就屋宇署已發出入伙紙或地政總署已發出滿意紙的樓宇進行調查，例如向有關屋苑的管理公司、大廈管業處和隔鄰住戶，查詢空置單位的數目。
因此，在香港，空置率包含了：二手市場正在放售╱放租的單位、轉手中仍未入伙的單位、業主購入後丟空的單位、一手市場發展商貨尾單位，以及裝修進行中的單位等。
在國內的《房地產開發統計報表制度》中，有關於「空置面積」條目的解釋是：「指報告期末已竣工的可供銷售或出租的商品房屋建築面積中，尚未銷售或出租的商品房屋建築面積，包括以前年度竣工和本期竣工的房屋面積，但不包括報告期已竣工的拆遷還建、統建代建、公共配套建築、房地產公司自用及周轉房等不可銷售或出租的房屋面積。」按照香港人的講法，就是發展商貨尾單位面積相對已落成單位面積的比例。
很明顯，地方政府利用「空置面積」這一指標，是考察房地產開發行業投資規模和銷售狀況，從而了解市場是否出現投資過剩，並非用於考察城市居民投資（投機）成份。也就是說，同一個屋苑，放到中港兩地，只要發展商全數賣出，在國內其空置率定義為零；但在香港，如果該屋苑買家５０％是投資者，買入後一直丟空，則空置率為５０％，兩者差距甚遠。
《威格斯集團中國市場董事總經理 何繼光》
至今，國內統計部門對樓市數據掌握不足，中央政府也深明問題所在，才公開要求各地方政府著手改善房地產透明度。發展商及代理所持資訊比買家充足，造成樓市資訊不對稱或壟斷在所難免，也因為此，買家容易基於數據不全而錯誤入市，對買家不公。
＊官方數據可信性仍有待改善＊
筆者估計不少地方政府對本區的樓價、租金、存貨量、空置率等的基礎物業數據仍未有系統的統計標準，導致業內人士在研究國內物業市場和進行項目可行性研究時往往遇到不少障礙，官方數據可信性仍有待改善。
簡單如商品房住宅均價，國內的計算方法，是將整區或全市的成交總金額，除以總成交面積，得出平均值，如７月份廣州十區一手住宅均價約１﹒０４萬元╱平方米。問題所在：如果某月豪宅物業成交大增，便會造成價高量跌的局面；又如某月政府推出較多數量的經適房，則該月全市樓價自然也會被大幅拖低。
略有統計學知識的朋友都會明白到，如果物業成交數據標準差（ｓｔａｎｄａｒｄ ｄｅｖｉａｔｉｏｎ）大，如豪宅和中小型住宅單位價格差距達６至８倍或以上（香港約３倍左右），則整個市場的樓價很容易取決於高端物業交投多寡，並非反映整個樓市的情況。
在香港，各大代理行早已採用了一些所謂藍籌屋苑的呎價作為指標，而差餉物業估價署也有提供「較受歡迎屋苑」的成交價格數據。由於屋苑內呎價差距小、成交量高、物業可比性高，得出的成交呎價有指標作用。在美國，城市房價多數採用中位數以解決標準差問題，而買家亦較容易比較各大美國城市的樓價水平。
＊另一具爭議數據便是空置率＊
另一個較具爭議的統計數據，便是空置率。其實，國內房屋管理及統計局對空置率的理解，跟香港以致很多已發展國家樓市的理解大有不同。
在香港，差餉物業估價署均會在每年年底，就屋宇署已發出入伙紙或地政總署已發出滿意紙的樓宇進行調查，例如向有關屋苑的管理公司、大廈管業處和隔鄰住戶，查詢空置單位的數目。
因此，在香港，空置率包含了：二手市場正在放售╱放租的單位、轉手中仍未入伙的單位、業主購入後丟空的單位、一手市場發展商貨尾單位，以及裝修進行中的單位等。
在國內的《房地產開發統計報表制度》中，有關於「空置面積」條目的解釋是：「指報告期末已竣工的可供銷售或出租的商品房屋建築面積中，尚未銷售或出租的商品房屋建築面積，包括以前年度竣工和本期竣工的房屋面積，但不包括報告期已竣工的拆遷還建、統建代建、公共配套建築、房地產公司自用及周轉房等不可銷售或出租的房屋面積。」按照香港人的講法，就是發展商貨尾單位面積相對已落成單位面積的比例。
很明顯，地方政府利用「空置面積」這一指標，是考察房地產開發行業投資規模和銷售狀況，從而了解市場是否出現投資過剩，並非用於考察城市居民投資（投機）成份。也就是說，同一個屋苑，放到中港兩地，只要發展商全數賣出，在國內其空置率定義為零；但在香港，如果該屋苑買家５０％是投資者，買入後一直丟空，則空置率為５０％，兩者差距甚遠。
《威格斯集團中國市場董事總經理 何繼光》
2010年8月2日 星期一
木薯資源 00841.HK 2009 FY
泰國木薯的收購及出口商
Positive
集團的市佔率約35%, 截至2010 - ３月底止年度，已錄得數個百分點增長。預計未來會加大倉存(上游)業務。
過去兩年平均每年資本開支1600萬元，預期今年度為2000萬元, 主要用作開設在柬埔寨及老撾興建倉庫，預計未來每年會增設一至兩個倉庫, 每個倉庫的開支1000萬元。目前共有5個採購倉庫，倉存量為25萬噸 (泰國三個倉庫，總容量172,500噸)
未來繼續於柬埔寨、老撾及越南等鄰近地區，增設貨倉，期望藉此擴大網點及收購業務
2010 - 3月份乾木薯片平均銷售價約190美元，2010-7前已升至210美元。
目前內地對木薯求過於供，內地適合種植木薯的地區不多 (廣西為主)，種植增速難趕上需求增長速度，就算木薯主要種植區廣西的木薯進口量，過去仍然有增長，故料當地政府支持木
薯種植政策無礙需求及價格。
泰國近年出現多次示威事件，對集團影響不大 - 集團的倉庫遠離旅遊區，加上農民收成有季節性，相信不會在收成期示威，
以及泰國政府支持木薯出口，故對集團業務沒有影響。
運費成本佔整體盈業額10%至11%，集團持續具規模的運貨量，集團能盡用貨輪的運載力，亦可使用不同容量的貨輪，創造優越競爭優勢，與船隻經營商磋商船務條款時擁有議價優勢. 去年集團購買一艘新船協助 (beginning in 2010 - 06)，每年運貨量約４６萬噸，以每噸可折省８至１０美元計算，料全年可省運費約４６０萬美元。
在泰國採購及出口優勢－－集團首創「365日收購」模式，保證全年以公開市場價及現金結算採購木薯片，保證泰農收入的同時亦保障了集團的收購網絡。集團的超過200名供應商遍佈泰國，包括農民、曬場營運商、加工商及貿易商，亦與泰國主要供應商及老撾供應商訂有長期供應合同。集團在泰國持續多年的龍頭地位致使集團的收購價亦為主要市場指標。集團已經向上游加工業務拓展，營運面積近8萬平方米的專用曬場，為集團帶來日漸增加的貢獻，並提升營運效率；
在物流及航運優勢－－集團在泰國貨倉均鄰近港口，方便海上運輸。其中一個貨倉裝備有泰國唯一一條運送木薯片的輸送帶，可將木薯片直接從倉庫運送到貨輪上，大大降低備貨時間及貨物損耗。
Expaning sales team into new area.
Negative
去年毛利率下跌 - 1) 木薯銷售成本上升，
2) 增加市佔率，擴大直銷業務，直銷的毛利率低於貨倉銷售毛利率 (貨倉銷售毛利率較直接銷售高１０個百分點)
去年直銷及倉存收入佔營業額分別為48%-49%及51%-52%，
廣西及廣東等政府致力增加木薯種植，會否對其銷量及價格構成影響?
Potential increase in Shipping Cost (BDI index)
被問及會否作回購時，無直接回應，僅表示，對業務前景充滿信心，會在「適當時候作適當決定」。
Positive
集團的市佔率約35%, 截至2010 - ３月底止年度，已錄得數個百分點增長。預計未來會加大倉存(上游)業務。
過去兩年平均每年資本開支1600萬元，預期今年度為2000萬元, 主要用作開設在柬埔寨及老撾興建倉庫，預計未來每年會增設一至兩個倉庫, 每個倉庫的開支1000萬元。目前共有5個採購倉庫，倉存量為25萬噸 (泰國三個倉庫，總容量172,500噸)
未來繼續於柬埔寨、老撾及越南等鄰近地區，增設貨倉，期望藉此擴大網點及收購業務
2010 - 3月份乾木薯片平均銷售價約190美元，2010-7前已升至210美元。
目前內地對木薯求過於供，內地適合種植木薯的地區不多 (廣西為主)，種植增速難趕上需求增長速度，就算木薯主要種植區廣西的木薯進口量，過去仍然有增長，故料當地政府支持木
薯種植政策無礙需求及價格。
泰國近年出現多次示威事件，對集團影響不大 - 集團的倉庫遠離旅遊區，加上農民收成有季節性，相信不會在收成期示威，
以及泰國政府支持木薯出口，故對集團業務沒有影響。
運費成本佔整體盈業額10%至11%，集團持續具規模的運貨量，集團能盡用貨輪的運載力，亦可使用不同容量的貨輪，創造優越競爭優勢，與船隻經營商磋商船務條款時擁有議價優勢. 去年集團購買一艘新船協助 (beginning in 2010 - 06)，每年運貨量約４６萬噸，以每噸可折省８至１０美元計算，料全年可省運費約４６０萬美元。
在泰國採購及出口優勢－－集團首創「365日收購」模式，保證全年以公開市場價及現金結算採購木薯片，保證泰農收入的同時亦保障了集團的收購網絡。集團的超過200名供應商遍佈泰國，包括農民、曬場營運商、加工商及貿易商，亦與泰國主要供應商及老撾供應商訂有長期供應合同。集團在泰國持續多年的龍頭地位致使集團的收購價亦為主要市場指標。集團已經向上游加工業務拓展，營運面積近8萬平方米的專用曬場，為集團帶來日漸增加的貢獻，並提升營運效率；
在物流及航運優勢－－集團在泰國貨倉均鄰近港口，方便海上運輸。其中一個貨倉裝備有泰國唯一一條運送木薯片的輸送帶，可將木薯片直接從倉庫運送到貨輪上，大大降低備貨時間及貨物損耗。
Expaning sales team into new area.
Negative
去年毛利率下跌 - 1) 木薯銷售成本上升，
2) 增加市佔率，擴大直銷業務，直銷的毛利率低於貨倉銷售毛利率 (貨倉銷售毛利率較直接銷售高１０個百分點)
去年直銷及倉存收入佔營業額分別為48%-49%及51%-52%，
廣西及廣東等政府致力增加木薯種植，會否對其銷量及價格構成影響?
Potential increase in Shipping Cost (BDI index)
被問及會否作回購時，無直接回應，僅表示，對業務前景充滿信心，會在「適當時候作適當決定」。
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