ＡＨ互動》海螺水泥Ａ股漲近３％，券商料建材下鄉銷售或超預期

《經濟通通訊社２１日專訊》水泥板塊普遍向上，安徽海螺水泥（００９１４）



（深︰０００５８５）Ａ股現上升２﹒９４％報２５﹒１８元（人民幣．下同）；Ｈ股報３３﹒８港元上升１﹒８１％。華泰聯合證券表示，上周全國水泥市場平均價格較前期相比繼續上漲，幅度１﹒５８％，上漲最高地區是安徽省、新疆上調每噸５０元至８０元；其次江西、山東、湖北上調１０至２０元。


報告稱，始自７月份的華東地區限電，加上大部分地區進入施工旺季、今年淘汰落後指標落實，所以四季度水泥價格有支撐，部分地區將繼續上漲。判斷明年水泥供需形勢也不差：雖然新增產能較多，但淘汰落後的力度很大，有效減少了淨增加產能，測算１０％的需求增長就可以消化掉新增產能的壓力，而在固定資產投資維持２０％以上增長、保障房建設力度加大背景下，１０％以上的水泥總產量增長是很可能實現的。


　　華泰聯合指出，水泥行業跟以往最大的不同在於，限制新增產能政策已將行業供給完全控制住，明年供給不存在超預期增加的可能（預計明年政策放鬆的可能性很小）。如果需求增長在１０％以上，明年行業景氣度將至少維持今年的水平。而「建材下鄉」若從明年開始在全國範圍內推廣，將是「錦上添花」，因此有充分的理由對明年水泥行業抱樂觀態度。


　報告稱，目前「建材下鄉」剛開始試點，具體補貼方案尚不明確。按照年初時中國水泥協會《擴大建材下鄉政策及實施建議（初稿）》中補貼方案（３年１０００億元）計算，在３倍槓桿的作用下，「建材下鄉」若在明年全國推廣，則將帶來水泥需求增量２２００至２６００萬噸，


相當於２０１０年水泥產量１８﹒８億噸（假設比０９年增長１５％）的１﹒２至１﹒４個百分點。考慮到「汽車、家電下鄉」的銷售超預期，不排除「建材下鄉」也會出現類似情況。


報告表示，維持對水泥行業的「增持」評級，目前行業主流公司２０１０年市盈率在１６至１８倍左右（新疆水泥股高一些），並認為估值修復依然是短期內推動股價上漲的主要驅動力，


建議投資主線可考慮受益于區域需求旺盛、限電漲價及併購整合實力較強的優勢品種。綜合考慮上述種種因素，目前重點推薦的排序為：海螺水泥（９月噸毛利超預期，旺季限電推升的價格飆漲可能導致今年業績超預期）、太行水泥（金隅股份）、天山股份、青松建化、亞泰集團、塔牌集團、祁連山。（ｆａ）










　　＊編者按：本文只供參考之用，並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之


　　　　　　　申述或訂立任何建議及推薦，讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力自行作出投資決定


　　　　　　　，如因相關建議招致損失，概與《經濟通通訊社》、編者及作者無涉。

北海市果香園

不計及收購北海市果香園 業務，今年資本開支料為２億至２﹒２億元人民幣，用作興建湖南種植場，預期整個種植場將於 ２０１３年前竣工

未來將視乎集團現金流，以及資本開支情況，才考慮融資需要及融資渠道，會以股
東最大利益為大前提，以考慮融資方法

斥約廿億元購廣西濃縮果汁業務，現金及發新股付
經濟通通訊社１２日專訊》亞洲果業（０００７３）公布擬收購果香園食品之全部已發行
股本，作價２０﹒４億元，以現金７﹒８億元的付款承諾契據，餘下１２﹒６億元以發行逾
１﹒６４億股支付，發行價為每股７﹒６８元、折讓９﹒６５％。交易將於本年１２月３１日完成。

果香園為現時由Ｓｕｎｓｈｉｎｅ　Ｈｅｒｏ及Ｅｘｃｅｌ　Ｂｌａｚｅ分別持有
９７﹒５７％及２﹒４３％股權。果香園總部設於廣西，為熱帶水果濃縮汁、飲料濃漿及速凍產品產銷商，年產６萬噸，生產設施在廣西省北海及合浦市，合計用地面積１０﹒９萬平方米。

亞洲果業指併入水果濃縮汁生產業務將締造協同效應、競爭更有優勢

被問及集團斥約２０億元，收購北海市果香園業務作價會否不合理，他回應指，果香園市盈
率達８﹒５８倍，相對市場上其他果汁公司，其普遍市盈率介乎１１至３０倍，因此認為收購價是合理。

宋志强指，收购果香园7.8亿港元以付款承诺契据支付。公司获得股东会批准后，会在明年五月底付款，公司稍后会跟据实际情况决定借贷或股本融资等的集资方式。

他補充，由於收購仍未正式完成交易，現階段果香園之股東是獨立於亞洲果業，與超大亦沒
有關係。（ｍｌ）


新浪财经讯
10月13日消息，美银美林称，给予亚洲果业买入评级，将目标价上调至10港元。

综合媒体消息，美银美林将亚洲果业(00073)目标价，由8.5港元上调至10港元，因为每股净资产值达8.5港元，以及新购北海果香园每股值1.8港元。在收购协议下，北海果香园承诺今年纯利贡献至少2.2亿元人民币。评级为买入。

 

中國汽車熱催生新商機

Laurie Burkitt/The Wall Street Journal


京郊一家麥當勞汽車餐廳外面﹐汽車在排隊等候。隨著越來越多的人買得起汽車﹐汽車文化已經興起。

北京郊區一家麥當勞“得來速”汽車餐廳外面﹐一列嶄新的汽車排隊等候。當“巨無霸”漢堡從寶馬(BMW)轎車和奇瑞(Chery)緊湊型車的窗戶遞進去的時候﹐有一件事情是明顯的：中國最近形成的汽車熱﹐正在為新的生意舖路。


麥當勞公司(McDonald's Corp.)在中國開有105家得來速﹐並計劃在未來三年再開300家﹐以滿足這種新的快餐需求。麥當勞（中國）有限公司首席執行長曾啟山(Kenneth Chan)說﹐中國快速增長的汽車行業給麥當勞帶來了良好的前景。

為把財富散播到大城市以外﹐中國中央政府在過去十年已經推動建設了超過三萬英里的高速公路。工業和信息化部數據顯示﹐去年中國汽車銷量為1,360萬輛﹐增長46%﹐預計到2020年的時候﹐中國道路上行駛的汽車將超過2億輛。


這進一步又帶來了其他變化﹐就像是美國的州際公路系統(Interstate Highway System)帶來的改變。經濟學家普遍認為﹐美國州際公路系統在降低配送成本、增加製造業就業和提高生產率方面功不可沒。
半個世紀以前出現在美國、利用剛剛汽車化的消費者謀利的商業模式﹐如今正在進入中國。

汽車使用量的增長當然有其代價﹐比如空氣污染和道路擁堵等。但它也給利用中國新興汽車文化謀利的企業帶來了利益。
通用汽車(General Motors Co.)和福特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)等汽車生產商明顯是贏家﹐它們得以從去年美國市場的疲弱中復蘇﹐一部分原因就是把重點放在了中國這個目前世界最大的汽車市場上面。新的流動﹐還意味著更多的消費者住旅館、在郊區商店買東西、開車時聽廣播。


隨著中國中產階級走出城市﹐他們正在改變零售行業的生態。消費者過去騎自行車購物範圍有限﹐所以一週要好幾次去商店購物﹐現在借助於公路和汽車﹐他們購物的次數減少了﹐但放進購物車里的東西卻增多了。


咨詢公司麥肯錫(McKinsey & Co.)的調查結果顯示﹐2010年年中﹐人們平均每星期購買洗發水和肥皂之類的日用品0.5次﹐低於一年前的0.6次。但所購這類物品的價值卻上升了31%。


這有利於法國家樂福(Carrefour SA)和美國家得寶(Home Depot Inc.)等大賣場公司﹐它們主要是在大塊土地更加便宜的非市中心地區開店。家樂福8月份在中國開了第160家店﹐是一處面積77,000平方英尺的賣場。家得寶共有九處賣場﹐平均面積90,000平方英尺。
麥肯錫公司亞洲消費中心（McKinsey's Asia Consumer Centers）高級主任狄維瑞（Vinay Dixit）說﹐消費品生產商和零售商可能需要改變他們小規模的、單一產品的銷售策略。


狄維瑞說﹐在美國﹐你可以選擇購買六瓶裝的軟飲料﹐價格比單瓶購買優惠﹐但在中國﹐人們只能選擇購買單瓶。現在他們有了購買更多數量的方式﹐消費者期待商家能夠提供金融激勵﹐促使他們批量購買。


中國石油化工股份有限公司（簡稱中國石化）認識到﹐當人們來加油時﹐他們想要的往往不只汽油。過去兩年內﹐中國石化在其95000個加油站15%的加油站內建立了非加油區﹐銷售長城紅酒及開米牌水果洗滌劑等商品。
今年非加油區上半年的銷售收入為26.4億元人民幣（3.94億美元）﹐比去年翻了一倍多。


剛剛興起的國內旅遊產業也正在逐漸崛起﹐以往人們只侷限在離家不遠的公交網絡範圍﹐而現在開始週末駕車出行。根據調研公司Euromonitor International的調查﹐去年旅遊者的消費攀升了33%﹐達1萬億元人民幣。

劉波加入了日漸增長的週末自駕游隊伍裏。33歲的劉波（音）是北京一家移動互聯網公司的生產經理﹐他在週末駕駛自己2004款吉普切諾基出行﹐逃離城市的喧囂﹐有時會前往500英里之遠的內蒙古。在路上﹐他從農民那裡購買農產品﹐住在營地和酒店。
酒店行業非常希望從劉波這樣的旅行者身上獲利。根據研究公司STR Global的調查﹐今年前半年中國酒店的入住率相比去年上漲了21%。

英國的洲際酒店集團（InterContinental Hotels Group PLC）是中國最大的國際酒店連鎖﹐在40個城市擁有132間酒店﹐並計劃在未來5年再建148間酒店。

中國廣州的經濟型酒店管理集團7天連鎖酒店集團在全國擁有400間酒店﹐計劃年底前再開至少200多間酒店。
商業電台也在蓬勃發展﹐現在營銷商們發現他們的目標群中產階級開始在路上收聽廣播。電台廣告收入去年上漲了4%﹐達到11億美元﹐而其他媒體的廣告商們在全球性低迷的狀況下紛紛採取緊縮措施。
根據媒介購買機構群邑中國的調查﹐家居清潔產品、服裝和家電產品生產商的電台廣告支出去年翻了三倍。
某些公司甚至以出人意料的方式從這種新型汽車文化中獲利。南京六年前修建的一個賽馬場結束了賽馬的歷史﹐現在成了一個停車場。

Laurie Burkitt

Using ETFs to invest in soft commodities

In the first article, last week, I covered general aspects relating to investment in the global agricultural sector and indicated that future articles would focus in more detail on the various options available to private investors based in the UK.


These options range from broadly based collective funds at one end of the spectrum to direct investment in farms at the other.


Collective funds include closed ended investment trusts, open ended unitised trusts and a fast expanding list of exchange traded funds that are low cost passively managed funds whose underlying portfolios are closely linked to specific indices. I shall now start off this series of specific profiles with an outline of the opportunities for investment exposure to agriculture and soft commodities using exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Advantages and disadvantages of using the ETF route


Over the past decade, ETFs have become extremely popular with a large number of professional and private investors who wish to gain exposure to particular market sectors through clearly defined low cost funds that are openly traded on leading stock exchanges, such as the London Stock Exchange.


Costs are low because the funds are passively managed with the objective of achieving as close a correlation with the chosen underlying index as possible.


In fact, reduced cost is one of the major advantages claimed by ETF managers. They use the term Total Expense Ratio (TER) to differentiate their products from the charges levied by unit and mutual fund providers. Typically, ETF managers will charge no more than 0.5% per year for equity based ETFs and less than 0.25% for ETF bond funds compared to average annual charges of more than 1.5% and 1% for equity and bond mutual funds.


Unlike retail based unitised funds that operate on a regime of daily fixed pricing, usually with a significant spread of around 5% between bid and offer, the prices of ETFs are determined live by the market.
Apart from the clear cost advantage of this medium, the basic structure of the ETF is designed to enable investors to diversify portfolio risk by choosing from within a massive range of investment themes. There are reported to be currently over 1,600 ETFs traded on the LSE market.
The main disadvantage of the ETF as a medium for investment is of course the basic fact that the funds are all designed to mirror the chosen underlying index so by definition outperformance is impossible and in reality the most that can be expected is marginal under performance after deduction of the manager's fees although these are admittedly very low. Indeed, the marketing charts supplied by most ETF managers make a point of illustrating how closely their funds relate to their benchmark index.
A further disadvantage is that most ETFs do not pay out any regular income in the form of dividends but roll up net income in the same way that the capital versions of mutual funds do.
Thus, in short, ETFs are an easily traded low cost way of diversifying portfolios and focusing on specific investment themes but the product range is not designed to achieve superior individual returns.


Using exchange traded funds to target the agriculture sector


Over the past decade the availability of ETFs has risen in both number and breadth of cover as the main providers such as BlackRock iShares, Invesco PowerShares, Deutsche Bank DB Xtrackers, and ETF Securities have launched an ever increasing number of specialist index tracking funds.
Although the main focus of most of the ETFs has been on financial and global indices and the hard commodities, there are a few specialist funds that cover the agriculture and soft commodities sectors. In addition to generalised funds that replicate the broad indices, there are also a number of highly focused commodity funds that target specific commodities such as wheat, soya, sugar and coffee and these are often further sub-divided into spot, future and leveraged versions.
As success with specific single commodity funds necessitates that investors possess a detailed understanding of the relevant underlying markets and are able to follow closely the forces influencing them, I shall exclude analysis of them at this stage but rather focus on the opportunities using ETFs covering broad agriculture and agri business.
The db X-trackers DBLCI (Liquid Commodity Index) Optimum Yield Balanced ETF


Code: XDBD.L Recent price: $33.3 TER: 0.55%


I shall not dwell on this broad spectrum ETF as it covers a wide range of commodities apart from the traditional "softs".
As at the end of July, gold accounted for 15% of the fund total with aluminium, copper, zinc and silver making up a further 23% and oil and gas some 26%. Nonetheless, the main globally traded crops of wheat, maize, soyabeans and sugar accounted for a meaningful 28% of the total funds.
Since launch in July 2007 this broad based commodity fund had, by 30th July 2010, appreciated by 177%. According to Deutsche Bank records the fund recorded a gain of 6.4% in the year to end July 2010, considerably less than the 14% advance of the FTSE 100 equity index over the same period


However, in calendar 2009 the fund returned 27% against a 21% gain in the main All Share index.

The ETF Securities Broad Agriculture Fund and the Agri Business Funds


ETF Securities Agriculture Fund


Code: AGAP.L (GBP) Recent Price: 429p TER:0.65%


Code: AiGA.L (US$) Recent Price: $6.63 TER:0.49%


The ETF Securities managers have created a large number of specialised funds related to soft commodities that focus on single crops such as wheat, soya, coffee, cocoa and sugar and then sub-divided these into separate entities covering future, short and leveraged positions. Thus any investor who believes that the current high price of wheat is overdone might wish to choose the short wheat fund but still take a position in forward wheat if believing that future prices are likely to harden.


However, an initial foray into the wider soft commodities market will probably be better served through a broader fund such as the ETF Securities Agriculture Fund.


Strictly speaking this is really a commodities based vehicle that is designed to track the DJ-UBS Agriculture Sub-index. The underlying assets are effectively futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and wheat. It reflects the return of the movements in futures prices of each commodity, quoted in US dollars.

This fund recently reported that 50% of total value was represented by soyabeans (26%) and maize ( 24%) with wheat (15%) and cotton, sugar, coffee and soyabean oil each varying between 7% and 10%. The overall product weighting is therefore very closely allied to the US agricultural sector. This is not necessarily a disadvantage but mirrors the global importance of the United States as a key farming nation and one of the largest exporters of agricultural commodities.
It is probably worth noting that in recent years the price performance of soft commodities has tended to do better during periods of economic difficulty exhibiting a negative correlation to global equity indices and providing an attractive option for investors seeking portfolio diversification as illustrated in the chart supplied by ETF Securities.
Source: ETF Securities

ETF Securities Agri Business Fund


Code: AGRP (GBP) Recent Price: 2,760p TER:0.65%


Code: AGRI (USD) Recent Price: $42.6 TER:0.65%


This fund is designed to follow the S-Net ITG Global Agriculture Index that is built to mirror the share price performance of the largest listed companies that are closely linked to global agriculture. The agricultural sub sectors covered include: a) seeds, chemicals and fertilizers, b) equipment and irrigation, c) agricultural commodities and d) livestock production.


As there are virtually no really large global players operating directly in the production end of farming, the Agri Business Fund is principally formed from stakes in those businesses serving the international farm community rather than actually producing crops and other farm products.
However, the portfolio does include a number of well established agriculturally based traders such as Singapore-based Wilmar International and US-based Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland, the latter two being huge operators in trading grains and other key soft commodities.


In fact, manufacturers and suppliers of agricultural chemicals and fertilisers comprised 61% of the underlying index as at end June 2010 with equipment and construction companies contributing a further 10% of the basic index
Because of this fund's close relationship to large cap listed businesses it is hardly surprising that its performance has been more closely correlated with broad movements in the stock market than the commodity indices and so is effectively a less useful defensive play in times of financial market weakness.
However, as a longer term play related to the ultimate recovery in agricultural sector terms of trade this fund could be worth following as it has significantly outperformed the leading US market indices over the past five years.


Invesco PowerShares Global Agriculture Portfolio ETF

Code: PAGG.L Recent price: $25.6 TER: 0.75%
This fund is very similar in composition to the ETF Agri Business fund as it is based on the NASDAQ OMX Global Agriculture index and largely covers the business sectors of the agricultural supply industry.
Major holdings in Wilmar International, Syngenta, Monsanto, Potash Corp, Mosaic and Archer Daniels Midland account for over 42% of the total portfolio compared to 48% for the ETF fund. According to the managers' most recent factsheet the fund's underlying investment portfolio is more widely spread geographically than the ETF Securities Agri Business Fund but for this minor advantage there is also a marginally higher management charge of 0.75%.


Conclusion

Bulls of the underlying agricultural scene promote the importance of key drivers forcing up soft commodity prices in the longer term.

These include gradually reducing availability of productive arable land, growing world population, rising incomes in the huge emerging BRIC nations leading to diets featuring a higher proportion of meat replacing direct consumption of grains and also the diversion of annual crop production from feedstuffs to biofuels. Add in the uncertain effects of climatic disasters such as floods and droughts and the equation would appear clearcut.


However, as mentioned in the first article in this series, there is still massive potential for further improvements in technology. It is always possible that there will be a second stage to the highly successful green revolution of the 1970s and 80s with genetic modification capable of generating substantial improvements in yields while also reducing demand for fertilizers and improving disease resistance.


On balance, I believe that technological advances will have a struggle to generate enough additional supply to meet the anticipated rise in effective global demand for soft commodities and thus I still expect the terms of trade to improve in agriculture's favour over the coming years. In this scenario I can see ETF funds playing a useful part in well balanced growth portfolios.

London-listed exposure to the agricultural sector

John Mulligan



16.09.10 10:51


The previous articles in this series highlighting investment opportunities in the agricultural and soft commodity sector have covered the general background to global supply and demand and more specifically the role of exchange traded funds.



I thought that I would turn now to some of the specific direct equity investment options that exist in this sector.


As domestic agriculture now plays a relatively small role in the UK economy the investment options in direct agricultural production have, for many years, focused on food production companies on the one hand and traditional plantation crop producers on the other.


Given the historical ties between Britain and its colonies the importance of tropical plantation agriculture is perfectly understandable. This general approach contrasts strongly with the US scene where agriculture plays a much larger role in the whole economy.


For British investors direct equity investment in soft commodities and farming, using the medium of London-listed companies, really comes down to the major food production groups such as Unilever (ULVR), Tate & Lyle (TATE), the dairying companies and the smaller producers such as Cranswick (CWK) and Glanbia (GLB) on the one hand and the overseas plantation companies on the other.


Apart from these there are a few listed companies that are directly or indirectly involved in producing a range of agricultural commodities.


In this article I shall touch briefly on some of the major food production companies listed on the LSE main market and follow in the next one with a focus on plantation companies and other overseas producers.

Analysis of the longer-term sales and profits for most agricultural sector producers throws up a generally lacklustre record with occasional bursts of prosperity achieved when positive environmental factors happen to coincide with spikes in commodity prices.


Of course, these occurrences are relatively rare as good weather conditions usually lead to production gluts and lower prices.


However, the increasing incidence of extreme climatic conditions in specific regions can, from time to time, deliver attractive short-term financial benefits to producers operating in those parts of the globe unaffected by droughts, floods and other climatic disasters.

The large London-listed global food producers


Unilever


Code: ULVR.L
Recent Price: 1743p
Div yield: 3.6% A Actual 2009 PER: 14.3
Estimated PER: 13


As global food producers go, Unilever is up there with the big ones with a market cap of £22.5 billion, annual sales of £35 billion and 2009 pre-tax profits of £4.3 billion. Their food products include well known brands such as Lipton (tea), Hellmans (mayonnaise), Knorr (soups) and Flora (margarine).


Although direct crop production is a relatively small component of the group's overall business the Unilever group is nevertheless closely linked to farming practices through its involvement with tea producers and oil palm plantations and the group is also a founder member of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil.


Investment in Unilever is generally considered to be a sound long-term constituent of balanced equity portfolios as its concentration on the processing, marketing and distribution aspects of the food industry provides some protection against the volatility and lower margins inherent in the production end of the food chain.


However, in no way can it be considered other than as a staid large global producer of foodstuffs and toiletries that is never likely to outperform smaller focused businesses with strong niche market positions.



Tate & Lyle


Code: TATE.L
Recent Price: 440p
Div Yield: 5.2%
Actual PER: 7.1
Estimated PER: 10.9


Traditionally a large scale producer of sugar and sugar by-products this world famous group is now a developer and processor of corn and sugar products for a wide range of wholesale and retail customers.


At the current price level the shares offer a relatively safe dividend yield even though the analysts covering the shares are forecasting little growth in earnings and dividends over the next couple of years.


Smaller food producers


Cranswick


Code: CWK.L
Recent Price: 850p
Div Yield: 2.7%
Actual PER: 12.3
Estimated PER: 11.6




Cranswick is included in this list because it started life in 1988 as a famer-owned pig production company and, until 2007, owned most of the farms on which the pigs used for their pork and sausage products were raised.


Cranswick is now a highly successful food production company with processing factories close to their suppliers' pig farms in Yorkshire and Norfolk. The sale of the company's farm units some three years ago demonstrates the higher margins achievable in the processing and manufacture of their final products. These include pork, sausages and general charcuterie as well as higher value sandwiches and convenience foods.


Although Cranswick is no longer a direct farm production company it remains an interesting investment as it has an enviable record of steady uninterrupted growth in sales, profits, earnings and dividends over more than five years. It is not particularly cheap in comparison with other food manufacturers but would make a solid component of any long-term equity portfolio.


The fact that Cranswick, as a business started by farmers, decided to dispose of the farming side of its activities three years ago demonstrates the prevalent corporate view that investment in agricultural production usually delivers poor returns.




The relatively low return on total capital invested in the actual process of farm production, including the value of the land, in densely populated countries like the UK is due in part to the very high value attaching to British farmland. This results mainly from non-agricultural demand for land for building and leisure uses.


For this reason, companies like Cranswick have moved capital away from land ownership into the higher yielding processing or retailing side of operations.

Glanbia


Code: GLB.L
Recent Price: EUR3.60
Div Yield: 2%
Actual PER: 9.2
Estimated PER: 8.9




Glanbia is an Irish domiciled cheese processor specialising in Mozzarella cheeses and has operating plants in the UK, the USA and Nigeria as well as in Northern Ireland.


Although closely associated with the dairy industry their connection to producers is effectively that of product purchasers rather than producers.



The UK dairy companies


Robert Wiseman Dairies


Code: RWD.L
Recent Price: 485p
Div Yield: 3.7%
Actual PER: 9.7
Estimated PER:11.1


Glasgow-based Robert Wiseman has a strong reputation in the declining dairy sector for efficient management and marketing and this has shown through in the sales and profits record over the past five years. The shares, currently 485p, are priced at 9.7 times 2010 actual earnings of 50p per share and yield a well covered 3.7%.


Although the overall opportunities for growth are clearly limited in the UK dairy industry as a whole, Robert Wiseman Dairies has developed a strong record of profits and dividends with sales expanding by more than 80% over the past five years while pre-tax profits grew by just under 100%, earnings were up by 78% and dividends more than kept pace with a five-year increase exceeding 120%.


The Wiseman brothers, who own approximately one third of the listed equity in the group, seem capable of continuing their excellent track record for some time to come.






Dairy Crest


Code: DCG.L
Recent Price: 374p
Div Yield: 5.0%
Actual PER: 9.4
Estimated PER:8.1




The past five years' trading record of Dairy Crest, a group that grew after the dismantling of the Milk Marketing Board (MMB), is an interesting illustration of the difference in business performance that can occur when one compares an established group operated entity with one run by clear sighted entrepreneurs.


Dairy Crest, as an example of the former, has managed to raise sales by no more than 29% over the past five years with a paltry gain of only 11% in pre-tax profits over the period while earnings and dividends per share actually fell by 2% and 5% respectively.


On the basis of the past five year record the outlook for shareholders in Robert Wiseman would appear considerably brighter than for those in the larger Dairy Crest even though analysts are estimating stronger earnings projections in 2011 for the latter company.


I plan the next article in this series should cover the overseas plantation sector.

中國鐵鈦(893)

主營業務

開採、選洗和銷售鐵礦石。


四川第二大及最大私營鐵礦石礦場營運商(四川最大的鐵礦石營運商是國營的)。

據美國地理調查（USGS）2008年的調查指出，中國的鐵礦石儲存量約佔全球的14%，是全球5大鐵礦石儲量國，主要集中於中國的東北、北部及西南部地區。在西南部地區中，尤以四川省的鐵礦石資源較多。2008年中國國家統計局數據顯示，四川省的鐵礦石儲量約有31億噸，為全國第三大；產量則約 5,700萬噸，於全國排第四位。
收入來源

    鐵精礦          用作銷售及製造集團球團礦的原材料                           佔收入約5成   
    球團礦         一般由鐵精礦混合膨潤土製成，並用於鋼鐵生產       佔收入約5成
    主要銷售予鋼鐵生産商，其生産平均强度在1,200牛頓至1,400之間
    鈦精礦        主要用於鈦相關的下游産品，如鈦渣                               約佔1.3%

鐵精礦和球團礦 - 煉鋼的原料

中鈦自營兩大礦場

白草
秀水河 - 探明及概算總儲量僅為18.7百萬噸 (只有少於6年的開採壽命)。

New 2010
01-2010陽雀箐 (鐵礦石資源量約為17.9百萬噸)
有機會擴張目的採礦區 - 低成本勘探開發毗鄰的鐵礦石資源(估計高達81.6百萬噸)。
02-2010茨竹箐 - 探礦權 (Purchase 2010-02) 估計鐵礦石資源量為25.6百萬噸


位於釩鈦磁鐵礦儲量最豐富的攀西地區 (專業報告指出，四川省的釩鈦磁鐵礦儲量約佔全中國總儲量的83.2%)

鐵鈦擁有的鐵礦資源中，含有較高比例的釩及鈦金屬

公司的目標礦產必要符合儲量不少於2,000萬噸、內部回報率25%，以及集中於釩鈦磁鐵礦資源3個條件


洗選設施

New 2010

海龍洗選廠
黑谷田洗選廠，

                                         地點                                        産品


白草洗選廠            靠近白草鐵礦                          鐵精礦及中品位鈦精礦

秀水河洗選廠       靠近秀水河鐵礦                       鐵精礦及中品位鈦精礦

球團廠           離秀水河鐵礦及108國道36公里               球國礦

海龍生產設施       靠近茨竹菁鐵礦                                 鐵精礦

黑谷田生產設施 鹽邊縣新九鄉黑谷田                鐵精礦及高品位鈦精礦




中鈦開探的鐵礦含釩量也算高，相信不難賣出好價錢。(據說好像多含0.1%釩，鋼材的強度便能有10%的提升……)

四川省礦石的定價，受國際方面的影響還是比較小。2008年國際礦價跌30%或40%時，四川省礦價只跌10%，因而四川省的漲幅相對國際礦價也會小一點


利好

中國西部大開發2011年隨着四川省當地利好行業政策推出，鋼鐵廠准許擴產，加上汶川地震後對高強度鋼筋需求提升，都將帶動鐵礦石的需求.
中國鋼鐵行業的整合升級 - 增大市場對釩資源的需求
2009年3月20日出台的《鋼鐵產業調整和振興規劃》，至2011年，強度在400兆帕以上的熱軋帶鋼筋的使用比例 (用於住房的高強度鋼筋) 將達到60%以上。由於釩正是唯一獲廣泛應用以提高鋼鐵強度的添加劑，換句話說，若高強度鋼筋使用比例增加，間接也帶動了對釩的需求。

四川省在鼓勵釩鈦資源綜合利用政策影響下，當地的一些大型鋼企將有新一輪的產能擴張計劃，預計到2011年時有700萬噸的產能開始逐步釋放，這將拉動對四川省的鐵礦石需求。」


開采成本低、綜合收益高。由于公司鐵礦礦床厚、埋層淺，適合于露天開采，因此開采成本較低。同時公司鐵礦類型爲釩鈦磁鐵礦，選礦過程中不僅可得到鐵精粉，還可收穫鈦精礦，綜合收益高。我們認爲釩都屬于稀缺的戰略金屬，公司擁有的豐富的釩鈦資源，爲其以後延伸産業鏈、提升産品附加值奠定了良好的基礎

Futute acquirsation - 小黑箐經質鐵礦的收購選擇權延長一年，年內條件允許時收購毛嶺鐵礦(資源量為10.0百萬噸，面積為1.9平方公里)及羊龍山鐵礦的探礦權。

計劃建設一個年產能約1,500千噸的新鐵礦球團廠，使球團礦的自產年產能增至約1,860千噸。
第一階段施工，預計年產能約1,000千噸，第一期將於2011年第二季度完成。

2011年1月前建設鐵精礦年產能為250千噸的生產設施。

2010-09 完成建設年產能為300千噸的新鐵精礦生產線及60千噸的新高品位鈦精礦生產.

Target 維持產能年增30%的速度發展



2010年EPS預測增長29%，2011年再增長27%，兩個年度預期PE僅10.2倍及8倍，具吸引力.

2010鐵精礦上半年産量按年增長16%至86.6萬噸，只相當於公司全年目標的44%。這主要是由於上半年四川旱災影響水和電的供應。公司上半年已經啓動兩個新的鐵精礦生産設施，本行認為公司實現全年195萬噸的鐵精礦産量是可以實現的。



鐵精礦及球團礦在上半年的實現價格分別為每噸665元人民幣及880元人民幣，按年升29%及21%，並較公司所簽訂的合約底價高9%及1%。雖然國內的鐵礦石價格或因鋼廠限產以達成減排節能目標的消息而面臨短期壓力，但本行認為公司的盈利風險較低，因公司已跟主要客戶簽訂價格保底協議




中鐵鈦去年上市集資凈額16.62億元（18.87億港元），主要計劃用於並購其他礦場及擴展現有的採礦邊界，建設鈦渣生產線、建設精礦生產線等。至去年底為止，集資所得只用了11%。

09年底，中鐵鈦手上凈現金17.84億元。手上現金多，有利並購，併為未來盈利增長帶來動力。

假設中國鐵鈦於2010年下半年將會以合約價下限出售其產品，並可達到全年的產量目標，本行預測公司2010年盈利可達5.01億元人民幣(每股盈利0.24元人民幣)。另外，假設鐵精礦及球團礦的平均銷售價格升9%及3%; 2) 產能擴張23%; 3)生產成本於2011年升3%，本行預測公司2011年將錄得純利6.85億元人民幣(每股盈利0.33元人民幣)，這意味著2009年至2011年的每股盈利年複合增長率達28%。


相當於12倍2010年巿盈率及8.7倍2011年巿盈率，由於公司的盈利增長前景亮麗、自身業務增長強勁及有可能收購額外產能，故此本行相信中國鐵鈦的估值備受低估。


6個月目標價4.1元，相當於2011年11倍的巿盈率



下行風險

生產因天災受阻或公司與礦務合同商發生糾紛而受阻以及四川省的鋼鐵需求較預期低。
秀水河只有少於6年的開採壽命, 6年過去，便只得靠白草礦場一柱擎天好了，而收入也將大受影響
鐵精礦和球團礦的價回落了不少，中國對鐵礦石的龐大需求一直被外商牽著鼻子走
 
鐵路運輸 - 唯一運輸門路只有成昆鐵路。雖說有鐵路運輸能力的優先權，但天災、橫禍是很難避免的，只得一條對外出路，風險也不小。

浙江世寶 8331

浙江世寶（8331）

專業製造汽車轉向系統產品為主，集研發、製造銷售為一體的現代化企業

總部位於杭州，並於杭州、長春、四平、蕪湖、義烏等地擁有6家子公司

3年奪得全國百家優秀汽車零件供應商殊榮，去年被評為國家重點高新技術企業，授予《中國汽車零部件轉向器行業龍頭企業》的榮譽稱號


蘊涵不少重大利好消息，惟股價卻未曾反映。

假設下半年盈利與上半年接近，市盈率返回11倍，浙江世寶的合理股價為5.2元，

現價僅3.04元，潛在上升空間相當不錯。


產品


100萬台/套各類汽車轉向系統產品的生產規模

包括機械式循環球轉向器、液壓動力循環球轉向器、齒輪齒條轉向器、電動轉向器、轉向節（包括紅旗轉向節、M6轉向節）、轉閥式轉向控制閥（用於液壓動力循環轉向器及液壓動力齒輪齒條轉向器），

大部份產品度身訂造，迎合不同汽車的規格。

客戶

涵蓋著名車商

全國建立了廣泛的銷售網絡和客戶網，所有產品均透過直銷渠道推出市場，

客戶涵蓋一汽集團、東風汽車集團、湖北三環、丹東黃海、金龍汽車、南京躍進、雲南力帆、奇瑞汽車、江淮集團、一汽轎車、一汽大眾、天汽、杭汽、南汽、柳汽、宇通、十通等中國著名汽車製造商。


擴張產能

為了應付重點客戶所佔市場份額明顯上升 - 積極擴張產能，

10年6月之後，公司產能已大幅上升

公司自主研發的電動轉向系統產品形成系列化，成功覆蓋商用車、乘用車到新能源汽車的全系列車型。


10年6月底止中期業績，浙江世寶的營業額大幅上升75.86%至2.68億元，中期盈利激增1.23倍，每股盈利20.28分。

估計全年每股盈利可達41分或47港仙，給予其11倍市盈率，股價已值5.2元。

浙江世寶在今年1月已建議將上市地位由創業板轉往主板，料對其股價可構成明顯刺激。

光匯石油加大東部佈局 中船燃料獨大局面受衝擊

2010年01月15日 08:43　來源：每日經濟新聞　

 

　　在去年剛獲得全國範圍內的保稅船用燃料油供應資質之後，深圳光匯石油(控股)有限公司(00933，HK，以下簡稱光匯石油)正加速在東部沿海地區碼頭的戰略佈局。該公司1月12日宣佈，將投資70億元在舟山外釣島建設油庫和倉儲以及碼頭配套設施。此前，該公司在大連也有類似擴張計劃。

有業內分析師認為，光匯石油在東部的不斷佈局，或許會進一步衝擊過去壟斷市場30多年，現在一家獨大的中 國船舶燃料有限責任公司 (以下簡稱中船燃料)的市場份額。而中船燃料供油部有關人士1月14日在接受《每日經濟新聞》記者採訪時也坦言，自去年金融危機以來，船運市場的低迷讓國 內保稅船用燃料油競爭壓力更大。
   
光匯石油擴容碼頭儲油設施

　　1月12日，光匯石油公告稱，正考慮將擬建的浙江舟山碼頭儲油設施容量擴大一倍，並與舟山市政府簽署 協議，獲得舟山外釣島整體開發建設權。該公司計劃在該島追加20億元投資，將碼頭儲油設施的總儲存量從之前擬定的220萬立方米增加至最多550萬立方 米。而此前公司在該島已經計劃累計投資50億元。

　　息旺能源負責保稅油市場研究的分析師在接受記者採訪時稱，自去年年中光匯石油獲得全國經營資質後，正逐步擴大在國內的碼頭網路，以擴大保稅船用燃料油市場份額。

　　除光匯石油外，去年新獲批取得全國經營資質的還有中石化舟山石油分公司和長江燃料有限公司，其他兩家則是中船燃料和中石化中海船舶燃料供應有限公司。

　　市場未完全開放致利潤豐厚

　　據記者了解，國內船用油供應分保稅和國際貿易兩種方式，與後者相比，前者市場並沒有完全開放。上述分析師表示，由於保稅船用燃料油供應還不是完全的自由競爭，因此其利潤比國際貿易要高得多，平均的銷售毛利估計每噸有5~10美元左右。

　　“對於保稅船用油市場的進一步開放，政府仍有一些顧慮。”息旺能源諮詢總監廖娜認為，不過這並不意味著未來不會發放新的經營許可。她補充說，目前現有的幾家市場新參與者在獲得新港口經營許可方面沒有政策限制。

　　“2009年，我國保稅船用燃料油總的銷售額有30億~40億美元，基本上被上述5家企業瓜分。”上述分析師說道，“還有一家張家港企業中油泰富也有經營資質，但該企業只在當地保稅區開展業務，量相當小。”

　　分析師稱，光匯石油強勁的誇張之勢必然會衝擊中船燃料一家獨大的地位。不過，這種競爭只是造成中船燃料市場份額減少，但國內總的銷售額卻保持增長，這會使整個市場越來越成熟，因此是利好的。

　　廖娜預測，至2013年，國內船用油需求規模可達2943萬噸左右，相比2009年增幅達75%，其中保稅船用油比重還將上升，預計約為1589萬噸，佔總量的54%，相比2009年上升13個百分點。

　　保稅船用油市場競爭加大

　　“保稅船用油市場正由相對壟斷走向相對競爭，新的燃料油供應商的加入，已經造成中國部分港口的燃料油價格下降。”上述分析師認為，價格的下降也使一部分日韓地區船東客戶分流至中國市場。

　　廖娜認為，保稅船用油業務取消經營的地域限制，這讓過去30多年一直獨家經營保稅船用油的中船燃料面臨壓力。據統計，光匯石油保稅船用油的銷售額在200萬噸左右，已佔到約30%的市場份額，而中船燃料佔據了60%左右，剩下10%的份額被3家公司瓜分。

　　中船燃料供油部有關人士認為，公司為國有企業，多年來已在全國從南到北建立了網點，在國內主要港口及 新加坡等地擁有實力雄厚的地區性專業公司，具有競爭優勢。對此，光匯石油有關人士稱，公司與中船燃料在客戶市場上存在差異化，雙方沒有衝突。中船燃料主要 以國內客戶為主，光匯則是國外船東。

　　除光匯外，其他新進入者也積極準備擴張。長江燃料副總經理李新科說，2010年集裝箱業務有望觸底回升，公司將趁機拓展國內整個沿海區域的保稅船用油業務，以及尋求建立全球銷售網路。

　　為了應對光匯在東部市場的壓力，中船燃料也在去年底投入運營了青島國際船舶燃油中轉基地，這使其燃油分撥業務服務可涵蓋南起連雲港北至大連港在內的環渤海沿岸各個港口，並可輻射至日韓港口，降低運營成本。(記者 喻春來）

AMINEX PLC - 2010 HALF YEARLY FINANCIAL REPORT

Highlights



OPERATIONAL


• Kiliwani North gas field - Resolution of regulatory issues at gas plant opens way to commercialisation
• Ruvuma PSA - First well proves up potential for oil as well as gas
• Nyuni PSA - Seismic and remapping at Nyuni firm up prospects for drilling
• Shoats Creek - New well completed for production in Cockfield sands
• Shoats Creek - AMI signed with El Paso to explore shared deep oil potential with first joint well now drilled and currently being tested
• Korea East Sea - New partner introduced and PSC signed covering 50,000 km²
• Egypt, West Esh el Mellahah - PSC extended to second term


FINANCIAL



• Oil production of 16,000 bbl (2009: 24,000 bbl) and gas production of 133,000 Mcf (2009: 302,000 Mcf) suffered temporary fall in the period
• Loss before tax of US$2.49 million (2009: US$1.15 million)


Aminex chairman Brian Hall said: "Tanzania is increasingly becoming a focus of industry interest as major international oil companies prepare their drilling programmes. Aminex, an early entrant, has already drilled the most significant exploration discovery in the country in recent history, Kiliwani North, and intends to continue exploring and developing its Tanzanian assets in a very positive manner.


The recently-drilled first well to test a deep Wilcox prospect in our Shoats Creek property, Louisiana, based on new 3D seismic data, is potentially a major step forward in our US activities. A test result will be available shortly."


 
Operations Overview



Since the end of the reporting period, Aminex has been advised by the parties concerned that outstanding issues between the Tanzanian Government regulator and the regional pipeline operator, which were holding up the expansion of a gas plant at Songo-Songo Island, have now been satisfactorily resolved so that detailed engineering plans can be submitted for final approval. This will lead to facilities becoming available to transport gas from the Kiliwani North field to market in the Dar es Salaam region which will significantly increase revenues.

Aminex has been drilling actively since the beginning of 2010. The Tullow-operated Likonde-1 well in the onshore Ruvuma basin of Tanzania (Aminex - 37.5%) and the Aminex-operated Olympia Minerals-1 well ("OM-1", Aminex - 100%) at Shoats Creek, Louisiana, were both spudded in the first quarter. Likonde-1 provided encouraging information about an under-explored basin but was not a commercial discovery. OM-1 has now been completed for production, the first new well to be drilled on the Company's Shoats Creek property with benefit of new 3D seismic.

 During the reporting period, seismic processing, re-processing, interpretation and mapping were completed over the Nyuni PSA in Tanzania with very constructive results, tabulated later in this statement. Reported contingent resource GIIP of over 200 BCF (equivalent to roughly 30 million bbl) and prospective resource GIIP of over 2.5 TCF (equivalent to roughly 400 million bbl) on a Pmean basis are providing the platform for a development programme at the Kiliwani North gas field and helping identification of future exploration drilling targets.




In June 2010, Aminex was invited to take a minority interest in a broader exploration programme in the same general area of Louisiana as its Shoats Creek property. The Company used its existing shareholder authority to place 17.2 million new shares for cash, to raise approximately US$1.7 million before expenses and to fund the entry cost of this unbudgeted opportunity. At the time of writing negotiations with the third party are still ongoing.



Since the reporting date, the Company's wholly-owned US subsidiary has signed an Area of Mutual Interest Agreement ("AMI") in Louisiana with Shoats Creek neighbour El Paso E&P, LP ("El Paso") for joint exploration of a deep prospect in Upper Wilcox sands which is believed to span the acreage of both companies. A 50-50 split has been agreed and a first well, Olympia Minerals-10-1 ("OM-10-1"), has now been drilled to a total measured depth of 12,410 feet (3,783 metres), encountering and logging potential hydrocarbon-bearing sands which are currently being tested. Aminex's side of the AMI covers approximately one quarter of the surface area of the Shoats Creek leases.


Early in the year the Company sold a 50% interest in its subsidiary Korex Limited which holds interests in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea ("DPRK"). In May Korex Limited signed a PSC with the Korea Oil Exploration Company, the state oil company of the DPRK, covering approximately 50,000 km² offshore, deep and shallow water, in the Korean East Sea. The new contract is in substitution for previous PSCs and provides a strong basis for going forward in this controversial but highly prospective country, in partnership with Chosun Energy which will manage operations from its base in Singapore.

 In Egypt, the promising South Malak-1 well was not in the end established as a commercial producer, despite having recovered limited quantities of oil, but this means that Aminex's share of costs will continue to be carried by other partners. The joint venture is sufficiently encouraged to have committed to extend the licence into a second term, with a commitment to drill two further wells at no cost to Aminex except in the event of a commercial discovery.






Outlook

 In Tanzania, two significant events will lead to further progress on the Nyuni PSA. Firstly, recent resolution of the issues which have stalled expansion of the gas treatment plant at Songo-Songo Island for the last two years will now enable the Company to move forward with development of the Kiliwani North gas field, which lies within the Nyuni PSA. Secondly, the mapping exercise completed by independent consultants ISIS during the reporting period has firmly established the further potential of the acreage and this will enable the Company to plan its future exploration drilling programme at Nyuni with a far higher level of confidence than before. The next well to be drilled at Nyuni is likely to test one of the large prospects close to Nyuni Island with a spud date in the first quarter of 2011. An application for a development licence at the Kiliwani North field will be submitted to the Tanzanian authorities in the near future.

In the onshore Ruvuma Basin operator Tullow Oil continues to analyse the results of Likonde-1 prior to proposing a new well location. A follow-up well to Likonde-1 is scheduled to be drilled in the first half of 2011.



In the USA, further drilling locations at Shoats Creek will be determined once the results of OM-10-1, currently being tested, are known. Further drilling is likely at the Alta Loma field in Texas during 2011, originally planned for 2010 but now deferred.

Aminex will also lobby hard for a completion of behind-pipe reserves in the 60 foot "S" sands in the Sunny Ernst-2 well at Alta Loma, which has the potential to increase Company revenues significantly and more than replace declining production lost from the Upper Andrau formation in the same well.




Preliminary work on the new Korean PSC is already in progress but no field work in the East Sea or major expenditure is anticipated during the remainder of 2010.


Further drilling is unlikely in Egypt during the remainder of this year.

Operations Report



Aminex's principal activities consist of oil and gas exploration, development and production in Tanzania and in the US states of Texas and Louisiana. In addition the Company participates in a PSC onshore in Egypt and is a shareholder in Korex Limited which holds a PSC offshore in the East Sea of Korea. Aminex's wholly-owned subsidiary AMOSSCO Limited provides equipment, consumables and logistical services to the international oil industry and supports the Company's operated wells during drilling.






Tanzania - Nyuni PSA, including the Kiliwani North gas discovery


Aminex has a 50% interest in the Nyuni/East Songo-Songo PSA and has drilled three wells to date, as operator. Of these,

Nyuni-1 was drilled in 2004 and intersected gas-bearing Aptian-Albian sands which are now considered to contain 233 BCF contingent resource gas in GIIP (Pmean basis)

Kiliwani North-1 (KN-1) which was drilled in 2008, testing gas at a flow rate of 40 MMcfd (equivalent to 6,600 BOPD).

The Kiliwani North field is considered to contain 45 BCF contingent resources gas in place (Pmean basis) in Neocomian age sandstones.

The contingent resource from the untested Aptian-Albian sands in Nyuni-1 is therefore now considered to be much larger than the contingent resource at the Kiliwani North field.
Contingent and prospective resources have been mapped and independently calculated by ISIS Petroleum Consultants, following (1) acquisition and processing of new seismic in 2009, (2) reprocessing of existing data and (3) integration of all seismic data sets and well data. Contingent resources (identified by drilling) and prospective resources (identified by seismic) together total over 2.8 TCF gas in place, equivalent to approximately 460 million bbl.

The Kiliwani North discovery well is located on the southern tip of Songo-Songo Island, 2.5 kilometres overland in a straight line from the gas treatment plant for the producing Songo-Songo gas field which delivers gas to market in Dar es Salaam via a 200 km common-user pipeline. This plant needs to be expanded in order to handle additional volumes of gas including production from KN-1, but progress has been stalled for two years pending resolution of certain issues between the Tanzanian regulator and the regional pipeline operator. However Aminex has been informed by the parties concerned that these issues have now been resolved so that detailed engineering plans can be submitted for final approval. Although no final timetable has been yet been confirmed by the pipeline operator, Aminex estimates that first gas will be delivered into the line from KN-1 in the first half of 2012 at a likely initial production rate of 20 MMcfd (equivalent to approximately 3,300 BOPD). With this gas plant expansion deadlock now resolved, a 25-year development licence application for Kiliwani North will be submitted to the Tanzanian authorities in the near future.



Further drilling is planned for 2011 at Nyuni and the next well is likely to test one of the prospects close to Nyuni Island, using a land rig which will drill directionally from an existing well site previously constructed by Aminex on the Island. New discoveries of gas could potentially be tied back to the KN-1 site which may ultimately become a gas gathering hub for the whole PSA area.


The Nyuni PSA is now in its third and final period and will expire in 2011, being the first PSA in Tanzania ever to last for its full term. The proposed 25-year Kiliwani North development licence will not be affected by the expiry of the PSA but the remaining exploration acreage cannot be further extended under Tanzanian law. However, the Tanzanian authorities have indicated their willingness to negotiate a completely new PSA at Nyuni, to become effective upon expiry of the existing one and have indicated that they will be prepared to finalise this before further exploration drilling commences.

 Tanzania - Ruvuma PSA


The Ruvuma PSA covers approximately 12,000 km² (roughly 80% onshore/20% offshore) on the Tanzanian side of the Ruvuma Basin, one of the last under-explored great river basins on the African continent.


The Likonde-1 well was drilledduring the reporting period, being the first of two commitment wells during the first (extended) period of the Ruvuma PSA. The operator is Tullow Oil (50%).


By contributing to back costs and paying 18.75% of the cost of Likonde-1, Solo Oil PLC has earned a 12.5% interest in the PSA from the Company, effectively reducing Aminex's working interest to 37.5%.


Likonde-1 was drilled to an extended total depth of 3,647 metres, encountering over 250 metres of potential reservoir sands with evidence of crude oil from sidewall cores. Strong readings of natural gas were recorded through virtually the entire well bore and drilling had to be halted after a high influx of gas and high temperatures were encountered. The well is providing a wealth of data on this under-explored basin and strong encouragement for future drilling. However, Likonde-1 itself was not a commercial discovery and has now been plugged and abandoned.


A revised evaluation of the potential of this PSA is still in progress, based on the knowledge gained from Likonde-1. The future programme and next drilling location have not yet been finalised, although a follow-up well is planned for the first half of 2011.


The Ruvuma Basin is now the subject of intense industry interest. Exxon-Mobil and BG have separately farmed into offshore blocks on the Tanzanian side of the basin whilst Anadarko and partners are engaged in a major drilling programme on the Mozambique side of the basin (where, for the avoidance of confusion, the basin is known as "Rovuma"). Aminex and partners hold all the prospective onshore acreage on the Tanzanian side of the Ruvuma River, the frontier between Tanzania and Mozambique.


Tanzania - West Songo-Songo PSA, coastal/offshore


Aminex participates in the West Songo-Songo PSA with a 50% interest. The operator is Key Petroleum Ltd. which holds the remaining 50%. The PSA covers 504 km² and adjoins both the Nyuni PSA and the producing Songo-Songo gas field. West Songo-Songo lies within the Rufiji basin, a proven producing trend which includes the Songo-Songo gas field and Aminex's Kiliwani North gas field. Key Petroleum plans to reprocess existing seismic but no substantial progress has yet been made on this. A first well is due to be drilled in 2011. Despite limited progress to date, Aminex considers West Songo-Songo to be a valuable component of its Tanzanian portfolio and any gas discovery in due course could be tied into a gas hub based at Kiliwani North on Songo-Songo Island.


USA - Shoats Creek, Louisiana


There has been intense activity on the Company's wholly-owned Shoats Creek leases during the reporting period and the ongoing interpretation of new 3D seismic data has defined several locations for further drilling in the untested Lower Wilcox sands.


At the beginning of the year, Aminex granted a 90-day exclusive farm-in option to Black Tip Petroleum to acquire 50% of the property in return for a cash payment. Black Tip was unable to complete this farm-in and the option lapsed but subsequent progress may prove this to have been a satisfactory outcome for the Company.


In February the Olympia Minerals-1 well ("OM-1") was spudded (Aminex 100%) and drilled to approximately 9,000 feet. The objective of this well was the Cockfield formation and several Cockfield zones were logged and very extensively tested. This well has now been completed in the Cockfield 2 ands and is on production. OM-1 needs careful management due to waxing and sanding issues. Stabilised production on pump is expected to be 150 BOPD, representing a step increase in US production levels and it will become a material component of Aminex's overall production.




Since the end of the reporting period, the Company's wholly-owned US subsidiary has signed an Area of Mutual Interest Agreement ("AMI") in Louisiana with Shoats Creek neighbour El Paso E&P Company, LP ("El Paso") for joint exploration of a deep prospect in Upper Wilcox sands which is believed to span the acreage of both companies. A 50-50 split has been agreed and a first well, Olympia Minerals-10-1 ("OM-10-1") has now been drilled to a total measured depth of 12,410 feet (3,783 metres), encountering and logging potential hydrocarbon-bearing sands which are currently being tested. The AMI covers approximately one quarter of the surface area of the Company's Shoats Creek leases.


Further drilling of the Wilcox with El Paso is likely but the detailed programme will be determined by the test results of OM-10-1.


Aminex commissions an annual independent engineering report on its US properties. However, a decision was taken not to re-evaluate Shoats Creek reserves in early 2010 due to imminent drilling which would have quickly rendered them out of date. As soon as a result is available from the OM-10-1 well and, if applicable, some production history available from both OM-10-1 and OM-1, a new report will be commissioned incorporating data gained from both wells which drilled on the property so far this year.



USA - Alta Loma, Texas

 Aminex has a 37.5% working interest in the Alta Loma property which is operated by El Paso. Sunny Ernst-2 ("SE-2") has been producing from Upper Andrau sands since 2008 but production is now materially declining and this had a material effect on the Company's production during the reporting period. Above the Upper Andrau lies a thick section of gas logged when the well was drilled in a formation known as the "S" sand. This formation offers the possibility of much more significant production and Aminex will press hard for the "S" sand to be completed and placed on production. This should have a significant effect on production. A further well, Sunny Ernst-3 which was originally planned for 2010, is now likely to be delayed until 2011. Gross production from SE-2 is currently 1.9 MMcfd with 70 BOPD.

 

USA - Somerset and South Weslaco, Texas

 The Somerset Field close to San Antonio produces approximately 100 BOPD from multiple stripper wells with relatively high operating costs but no material production decline year-on-year. Aminex USA, Inc. is the operator and 100% owner of Somerset. The South Weslaco gas field in Hidalgo County, Texas produces approximately 1.85 MMcfd gross gas and is operated by Kaler Resources. Aminex USA, Inc. has a 25% working interest.


Egypt - West Esh el Mellahah-2, onshore Gulf of Suez

 The West Esh el Mellahah-2 (WEEM-2) PSC is a large onshore block in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, geologically positioned on the southwest margins of the Gulf of Suez Basin to the east of the Red Sea Hills, a prolific oil producing basin with multiple reservoirs, including several giant fields.

 Three obligation wells were drilled in the first period of the PSC with encouraging results but none has been placed on commercial production. The most recent, South Malak-1, was drilled to a total depth of 11,200 feet in 2009, terminating in Basement rocks. Strong gas shows were recorded while drilling over a 900 foot interval from 10,300ft to total depth. Both oil and gas were encountered and limited quantities of high quality oil recovered to surface.


WEEM-2 lies in an oil-prone but highly-faulted area. The positive shows from South Malak-1 have provided the joint venture with sufficient encouragement to extend the licence into a second period, ending September 2012, which includes a commitment to drill two further exploration wells.


In the case of establishing commercial production, WEEM-2 is located within a few kilometres of the Esh el Mellahah oil production facilities with an export pipeline to the coast.


Aminex has a 10% interest in the PSC with a free carry continuing until first commercial production under a Development Lease.



DPRK - East Sea offshore, shallow and deep water


Aminex first signed a Petroleum Agreement for co-operation in oil and gas with the government of the DPRK in 2004. However, for a number of reasons progress was slow for some time.


Despite challenging international politics, Aminex has succeeded in maintaining good working relations with the DPRK authorities and in May 2010 formally signed a Production Sharing Contract for a large offshore area in shallow and deep water in the Korean East Sea, covering approximately 50,000 km². The work obligation involves reprocessing and reinterpretation of old seismic data plus acquisition of new marine seismic data during an initial two-year period. Aminex believes that the East Sea has great potential for significant discoveries of oil and gas while recognising the political challenges in the region and the need to ensure that any applicable international sanctions are strictly observed.


Also during the reporting period Aminex introduced a new foreign partner, Singapore-based Chosun Energy Pte Ltd ("Chosun"), which will provide finance for the initial stages and a regional base in Singapore. Chosun has acquired 50% of the Company's existing DPRK interests in return for a consideration valued at US$500,000.



UK - AMOSSCO, oilfield services and supplies


 trading actively and opening up markets in new areas. AMOSSCO will support procurement and logistics for the forthcoming drilling programme at Nyuni.

Financial Review



Revenue Producing Operations


Group revenues of US$2.6 million for the first six months of 2010 comprise US$1.85 million oil and gas revenues and US$0.75 million oilfield services and supplies revenues. Total revenues of US$2.6 million were 32% lower than the comparative period. Oil and gas production decreased compared with the first half of 2009: oil production was 16,000 bbls (2009: 24,000 bbls) and gas production was 133,000 Mcf (2009: 302,000 Mcf).

The decrease is attributable to the expected decline in production from the Upper Andrau zone in the Sunny Ernst-2 well ahead of partner approval to recomplete the well and perforate the "S" sand. The average oil price for the period increased by 63% from US$45.61 per bbl to US$74.48 per bbl. There was also an increase in the average gas price from US$4.01 per Mcf to US$5.05 per Mcf, an increase of 26%. Oilfield services and supplies revenues are down 54%, mainly due to a reduction in the provision of technical services to Company-operated ventures in the period.


Cost of sales, excluding depletion and depreciation, of US$1.8 million is lower than the comparative period by 29% reflecting the lower revenues in the period. Depletion and depreciation at US$0.5 million is marginally lower than 2009: the depletion charge on a barrel of oil equivalent basis has increased between the two periods because of the reduction in Alta Loma and South Weslaco reserves independently evaluated at the start of 2010.

Administrative expenses increased to US$2.9 million, an increase of 57% over 2009. The increase includes a share-based payment charge of US$810,000 (2009: US$97,000) arising on the grant of options under the Aminex PLC Executive Share Option Scheme on 4 January 2010 and a reduction in own employee costs capitalised during period. Administrative expenses are mainly incurred in sterling: there was no significant difference in the US dollar: sterling exchange rate between the half-years under review. The disposal of 50% of the Group's interest in certain Korean interests and impairment of other investments related to the Korean interests gave rise to a loss of US$68,000. This was offset by a gain on revaluation of the existing financial asset of US$306,000, leading to an overall gain on disposal of US$238,000. Finance costs of US$83,000 (2009: US$69,000) mainly represent the non-cash discount arising on the decommissioning provision. The Group continues to have negligible interest bearing debt. The resulting loss before tax of US$2.4 million is consequently greater than the loss of US$1.2 million for the comparative period.



Balance Sheet


The investment in Kulczyk, amounting to US$400,000 at 30 June 2010 is now classified as held for sale within current assets as the Company is now seeking to dispose of these shares. The net change in fair value of the assets held for sale within current assets amounted to US$68,000 in the period and this has been recorded in the statement of comprehensive income.

 Interest bearing debt (short and long-term) at 30 June 2010 stands at US$135,000, the same balance as at 31 December 2009. Total equity has decreased by US$243,000 since 31 December 2009 comprising the net loss for the period of US$2.49 million, the net loss of US$131,000 in the foreign currency translation reserve and the US$68,000 net change in fair value of assets held for sale: these losses are offset by increases amounting to US$1.63 million in the issued capital and share premium accounts following the share placing announced on 9 June 2010 and an increase of US$810,000 in the share option reserve, related to new options issued in the financial period.
Cash Flows


The share placing in June 2010 raised net proceeds of US$1.63 million. Interest bearing debt was reduced by US$33,000 (2009: US$29,000) and a new loan of US$33,000 was taken out on the purchase of equipment in the US. Net cash outflows from operating activities during the current reporting period amounted to US$374,000 compared with net cash inflows US$1.7 million for the first half of 2009, reflecting the lower revenues from US operations. The Group spent US$4.7 million on exploration and evaluation assets, mainly including its share of the Likonde-1 well, net of farm-in contributions received from Solo Oil. Aminex also spent US$2.6 million on property plant and equipment: the main area of expenditure was the drilling and testing of the Olympia Minerals-1 well at Shoats Creek.

The net decrease in cash and cash equivalents for the six month period ended 30 June 2010 was US$6.1 million which compares with a net decrease for the comparative period ended 30 June 2009 of US$1.85 million.


Related Party Transactions


There were no related party transactions during the six-month period to 30 June 2010 that have materially affected the financial position or performance of the Group. In addition, there were no changes in the related parties set out in Note 26 to the Financial Statements contained in the 2009 Annual Report that could have had a material effect on the financial position or performance of the Group during the six-month period.


Going Concern


The Directors have given careful consideration to the Group's ability to continue as a going concern and have concluded that a continuance of such a position beyond the end of fiscal 2010 will be dependent on the successful sale of assets or an alternative method of raising working capital. The Directors have reasonable expectation that the Group will be able to implement this strategy successfully and are pursuing a number of alternative options in this regard. For this reason, they continue to adopt the going concern basis in preparing this half-yearly financial report.


Principal Risks and Uncertainties


Aminex's Group activities are carried out in many parts of the world, in particular East Africa, North Africa, North Korea and the USA. We carry out periodic reviews to identify risk factors which might affect our business and financial performance. Although the summary set out below is not exhaustive as it is not possible to identify every risk that could affect our business, we consider the following to be the principal risks and uncertainties facing the business over the next six months:


Exploration risk - our exploration and development activities may be delayed or adversely affected by factors outside our control, in particular: climatic and oceanographic conditions; performance of joint venture partners; performance of suppliers and exposure to rapid cost increases; availability, delays or failures in installing and commissioning plant and equipment; unknown geological conditions resulting in dry or uneconomic wells; remoteness of location; actions of host governments or other regulatory authorities (relating to, inter alia, the grant, maintenance, changes or renewal of any required authorisations, environmental regulations - in particular in relation to plugging and abandonment of wells, or changes in law).


Production risks - our operational activities may be delayed or adversely affected by factors outside our control, in particular: blowouts; unusual or unexpected geological conditions; performance of joint venture partners on non-operated and operated properties; seepages or leaks resulting in substantial environmental pollution; increased drilling and operational costs; uncertainty of oil and gas resource estimates; production, marketing and transportation conditions; and actions of host governments or other regulatory authorities.


Commodity prices - the demand for, and price of, oil and gas is dependent on global and local supply and demand, weather conditions, availability of alternative fuels, actions of governments or cartels and general global economic and political developments.




Currency risk - although our reporting currency is the US dollar which is the currency most commonly used in the pricing of petroleum commodities and for significant exploration and production costs, other expenditures (in particular for our entral administrative costs) are made in local currencies (as is our equity funding), thus creating currency exposure.




Political risks - as a consequence of our activities in different parts of the world, Aminex may be subject to political, economic and other uncertainties, including but not limited to terrorism, military repression, war or other unrest, nationalisation or expropriation of property, changes in national laws and energy policies, exposure to less developed legal systems.


A more detailed listing of risks and uncertainties facing the Group's business is set out on page 5 of the 2009 Aminex PLC Annual Report and Accounts (available on the Aminex website www.aminex-plc.com).






Forward Looking Statements


Certain statements made in this interim management report are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from the expected future events or results referred to in these forward-looking statements.




Statement of the Directors in respect of the Half-Yearly Financial Report






We, the board of directors, as listed on page 14 of the most recent annual report confirm our responsibility for the half-yearly financial statements and that to the best of our knowledge:






● the condensed set of financial statements comprising the condensed income statement, the condensed statement of comprehensive income, the condensed balance sheet, the condensed statement of changes in equity, the condensed statement of cashflows and the related notes have been prepared in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting as adopted by the EU.






● the interim management report includes a fair review of the information required by:






(a) Regulation 8(2) of the Transparency (Directive 2004/109/EC) Regulations 2007, being an indication of important events that have occurred during the first six months of the financial year and their impact on the condensed set of financial statements; and a description of the principal risks and uncertainties for the remaining six months of the year; and






(b) Regulation 8(3) of the Transparency (Directive 2004/109/EC) Regulations 2007, being related party transactions that have taken place in the first six months of the current financial year and that have materially affected the financial position or performance of the entity during that period; and any changes in the related party transactions described in the last annual report that could do so.






The total non-current assets increased to US$51.8 million at 30 June 2010 from US$45.8 million at 31 December 2009. The increase in these assets of US$6.0 million comprised US$4.3 million of E&E expenditure, principally related to Tanzania, as noted above; a further US$2.1 million incurred on the US producing business (property, plant and equipment) and a reduction in other investments of US$342,000. The Group also disposed of certain of its Korean assets in return for a combination of listed and unlisted shares, in Kulczyk Oil Ventures Inc ("Kulczyk") and Triton Petroleum Pte Ltd respectively.

《股林淘金》比亞迪

《股林淘金》有讀者詢問：筆者自２００５年以來經常推介中國的汽車股，例如東風集團（００４８９）在《香港經濟日報》及《經濟通通訊社》和其他傳媒等，經常建議買入的文章不下２０次，華晨中國（０１１１４）和吉利汽車（００１７５）的推介也有十多次，為何比亞迪（０１２１１）的推介一次也沒有？

筆者有１０年以上的時間涉足於汽車買賣及維修行業上，環球各大汽車巨人的興衰起落及其
原委也所知甚詳，比亞迪的業務風險和多變性是香港上市汽車股中之冠，嚴格來說，比亞迪不宜作投資，只可作投機。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　＊比亞迪急促擴展成隱憂＊


以產品風險而言，東風集團與比亞迪有天淵之別。東風銷售的產品，多是和外國品牌車廠合作，例如日本本田、日產、法國雪鐵龍、標緻等，該批產品型號早已在世界各市場被證實了是暢銷和成功的，故在市場急速壯大的中國，根本沒有不成功的可能。故為何在２００５年尾東風上市時錄得ＩＰＯ不足額認購時，筆者仍然對東風前景充滿信心和不斷給予正面評價（上市價是１﹒６元）。

比亞迪的業務風險在於沒有成本精算的全盤計劃和應對策略。例如以東風上述暢銷的四大外國品牌車款為例，既往多年來的統計顯示，每款車或引擎的平均壽命是多少，每２萬公里或４萬公里時汽車的哪個部件會出現何種損毀及或然率是多少，維修成本是多少等，全部都有數據支持（以上數據及評價可經由世界汽車服務統計權威ＪＤ　Ｐｏｗｅｒ，美國ＡＡＡ及美國消費者報告取得）。
　　　　　　　　　　　　＊自產品牌歷史短，產品保證有疑問＊

比亞迪自主品牌汽車在新車銷售時，給予買家兩年及６萬公里的保用，當中若汽車過早損毀
時，廠家需要多少金錢作維修補償？筆者認為比亞迪本身自己也不大清楚，因為這批自己研發的自主品牌型號從來都未有既往歷史數據去作一精算，比亞迪對此維修成本，有沒有作撥備？（除了機械損毀，還有產品設計失誤引至失事的索償？）
　　　　　　　　　　　　＊創業容易守業難，不宜馬上治天下＊
消費者索償（或投訴）時的應對策略是公司危機管理手法之一。２００５年比亞迪使用了廉價拉攏加盟代理商令比亞迪的汽車銷售網絡急促擴大，形成了後來多年產品暢銷的助力功臣。筆者認為王傳福的市場策略是成功的，但馬上得天下易，馬上治天下便難，市場混亂中異軍突出，拉雜成軍可收一時之效，但這批隊員專業嗎？懂得危機處理嗎？懂得化解和事前避免消費者的不滿嗎？

美國８０年代油價暴升之時，歐洲及韓國車廠向美國蜂湧輸入節能車，以價廉物美迅速打開美國市場，但僅僅幾年，因售後服務差及汽車本身質量欠佳而關門大吉，退出市場的有Ｌａｄａ、Ｓｋｏｄａ和快意（Ｆｉａｔ），韓國的現代汽車高級轎房車Ｓｔｅｌｌａｒ，使用兩年後車架出現嚴重鬆散而被汽車雜誌評為「最危險汽車」，銷量劇跌下出現財務困境，幸有母公司支持全面更換問題零件，最終才挽回消費者的信心。比亞迪有母公司支持嗎？如果這個「最終」挽回消費者信心需要兩年時間，比亞迪的財政撐得住嗎？
　　　　　　　　　　　　　＊業務進速退銳，股價亦然＊
筆者並不是說比亞迪必然遭遇危機，筆者只是說比亞迪處理危機的態度和能力皆很薄弱。主席王傳福瞄準了２００３年至２００５年中國汽車步入起飛前良機，用進取的市場推廣手法為比亞迪強佔了汽車市場的第一桶金，值得嘉許。但成功的市場推廣並不等同成功的產品，汽車產品沒有５年以上的紀錄，難以確定是安全和合標準的商品，高調的市場推廣沒有良好的售後服務支持，一旦產品有失誤，銷售表現會變得進速退銳。上周五（２０日）集團大幅調低今年汽車銷售目標至６０萬輛，筆者認為只是比亞迪危機初露的第一步。從一些網頁上的消息得知，比亞迪已開始出現消費者留言，不滿產品質素及投訴在保用期內機器損毀後不作負責維修，及消費者屢次投訴都被冷漠對待等消息。

另外，在很多中國汽車網頁內的產品款式選購中，大部分網頁資料都顯示比亞迪各款傳統汽
車可即時取車，毋須等候，而比亞迪的代理加盟商們之庫存量一直比其他汽車牌子高，也是筆者對其業務有戒心的重要原因。

比亞迪的缺點尚有管理層未必有足夠合適人員去處理數年間不斷向其他業務的快速擴張，包
括純電池車、混能汽車、寧波的蕊片廠、電能巴士、低碳節能家電等等。其實比亞迪對自己汽車業的煩惱也兼顧不暇，由今年年頭開始釀起的加盟商因承受不了總公司的不斷壓貨（業內的合理庫存是１﹒２個月，但比亞迪的代理商是３個月的庫存量），代理商的資金鏈壓力很大，經常要削價速銷，在２００９年曾經是比亞迪在成都的金牌銷售代理商，在今年也退回比亞迪的代理權，現時轉投吉利汽車服務。用壓貨策略於手機或手機電池銷售或會成功，但汽車業的借貸服務、維修，將來的舊車換新車及二手車買賣等，才是代理們的最大利潤來源，比亞迪現時對代理們的態度有如殺雞取卵，是一個雙輸的方案，除非是比亞迪的現金需求緊絀，則作別論。
　　　　　　　　　　　　＊若不急救亡，比亞迪會見３５元＊
事實上比亞迪近期的業績的確是褪色不少，但猶幸在快速增長的中國市場上，比亞迪仍有機會重振雄風，但必須要立即推行救亡措施。筆者有三大建議認為比亞迪要立即執行，否則筆者預期比亞迪的股價會一浪低於一浪，有機會跌穿３５元的水平。

（一）立即在市場上盡快籌集資金，即使大折讓配股也要進行。因為直至今年６月底時，比
亞迪的總借貸高達６４﹒７億元（去年是３６﹒５億元），但一年內要還款的便要約３９億元，現金雖然有１８﹒３億元，但是不要忘記比亞迪代理們的庫存量是同業中最高的，今年第三季是銷售淡季，比亞迪的套現能力將要大打折扣。而比亞迪新開發的項目甚多，單是寧波的蕊片廠和深圳的純電池汽車廠，每個月的資金需求投入要數億元，而其以往本業的比亞迪電子（００２８５）業務不斷放緩，可提供的資金實在不多。比亞迪要壯士斷臂，暫時要擱置一些急速擴展的非核心業務才可安渡危機。

（二）要立即重整比亞迪車主對產品索償的安排，總公司必須要掌控所有與顧客的溝通渠道，勿讓一些不專業的中間代理將初時不滿的顧客讓投訴事情愈搞愈大，最終拖跨比亞迪辛苦建立的品牌商譽（這現象僅屬初起，尚未到達危險程度，但小傷口若不理會，一旦蔓延感染，將是比亞迪未來產品再要推銷的絆腳石）。

（三）要轉危為機。要主動聯絡顧客對旗下產品的定期檢查及保養。中國車主們對汽車保養知識貧乏，機件有問題時必會歸咎於比亞迪的產品質素。比亞迪對外當然可以吹噓質素如何高水平，但熟悉行情的專家自然非常心水清（包括筆者），比亞迪何德何能突然由一個門外漢，可以自產品牌，並比同業便宜一半價錢及可保用６萬公里及兩年之質素？主動聯絡車主將汽車勤加保養除了可預早將質素問題化於無形外，更可鞏固與顧客們的商業關係，何樂而不為？

筆者深信（王傳福亦應該深知肚明）電能車或混能車的前路是非常艱辛。歐美國家以往３０多年，投下數十億美元的研究，仍然弄不出一輛符合商業效益的電池汽車，身為生產手機零件及電池的商人，突然告訴你他已攻破了技術難關，你相信嗎？筆者有３０年閱讀汽車雜誌大部分是以外國雜誌為主）的經驗和知識告訴讀者們，筆者不會相信。若是政府肯不計成本的「無私」支持，則作別論。但任何有政府龐大補貼的產品，若沒有政府成為主要股東的誘因，政府何需特別照顧你？何況，現時一般人對電池車的環保效益，只是想當然的自以為是，距離真相是天淵之別，筆者下一文章會詳述電池車為何環保效益低，政府全力補貼將是一個謎！

短期而言，我會將比亞迪列入負面觀察名單。

分析：美国原油库存“明升”掩盖全球库存“暗降”

* 海上储油在近几个月急剧下滑--经纪商
* 分析师和银行人士预计油价在今年馀下时间上涨
* 美国现有石油库存能满足未来57日的需求
记者 Joshua Schneyer 编译 宿泱韫/王丽鑫


路透纽约8月19日电---美国石油库存处于至少20年来的最高水准,但海上储油量骤降显示全球原油供应正在收紧,这一利多因素应会推高油价.

美国政府周三公布的数据显示,美国原油和油品库存创纪录高位,指标美国原油期货价格应声跌至六周低点73.83美元,较8月初触及的近83美元的夏季高点滑落11%.

美国石油库存总量上周增加590万桶,至11.30亿桶,为美国能源资料协会(EIA)1990年开始公布一周库存数据以来最高.石油库存自6月初以来已增加4,000万桶.

但据船舶经纪商透露,很难追踪的全球海上储油6月和7月或已减少4,500万桶,降至去年峰值逾1亿桶的一半左右.

"对现在海上储油量比较保险的估计是不超过(1亿桶)的一半."船舶经纪商Charles R. Weber的George Los表示.

Los称近期没有看到有因储油需求而租用超大型船舶的情况,而在去年夏季他追踪到至少20笔短期租用交易.每一艘超大型油轮能储存约200万桶原油.

"对浮式储油的需求几乎消失."本月初公布的Gibson船舶报告显示.

据Gibson,全球浮式储油仅7月一个月就减少30%,或2,560万桶,至约5,900万桶.

此类储油多数来自伊朗,该国由于近来受到国际社会旨在禁止其核试验的制裁,难以售出本国原油.

另一家经纪商ICAP表示,由于炼厂增加炼油,用于航煤等油品炼制的海上原油需求本月可能回升.

贸易公司2009年利用原油期货巨大的正价差进行正向套利,赚取了丰厚利润.

在经济复苏之时全球现货燃油需求上升,价差下降,海上储油从寒冷地区运来,并转用较便宜的陆上存储,并计入美国官方的库存数据中.这就给人以供应过剩的观感.

高盛分析师本周指出,6-7月间全球海上储油量减少4,000万-4,500万桶,远超全球陆上库存同期的增幅2,100万桶.

这可能表明在库存通常上升的季节,石油净库存却出现利好油市的大幅减少势头.

"从全球角度来看,我们似乎处在库存下降时期,"高盛分析师David Greely称."海上库存下降幅度很大,这更加反衬出陆上库存的增幅."

高盛估计,经季节因素调整後,全球石油日供给缺口约为60万桶.该行仍预计2010年底指标西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)期货价格将升至每桶85-95美元,实货市场趋紧是其维持该预测不变的原因之一.

另一重要供需指标--期货抵补(forward cover)也显示,实际情况并没有库存数据显示的那麽偏空.期货抵补衡量现有陆上原油和油品库存能满足多少天的消费需求.尽管美国石油库存水平上升,但目前的期货抵补值只有57天,低于2009年的高点62天,比1990年美国石油库存处于相仿水准时的70天更是相去甚远.

**原油正价差缩小**

另一表明市场趋紧的迹象是原油正价差在缩小,而通常在石油短期需求疲软时,正价差应当最深才对.周四西德克萨斯中质油近月期货合约较一个月後到期合约贴水低见每桶0.25美元,2009年平均为1.58美元.
美国库欣库存仍然在3,700万桶以上,接近5月触及的纪录高位3,790万桶,并远高于2009年水平,当时库欣库存上升导致油价出现很大幅度的正价差.

法国巴黎银行在本周研究报告中表示,鉴于库存水平之高,西德克萨斯中质油正价差低得惊人,可能仍会走阔.不过该行仍然预计,西德克萨斯中质油价格今年会逐渐上涨,到第四季时涨至平均每桶89美元.
此外,能源资料协会(EIA)预计2010年下半年西德克萨斯中质油均价为80美元,年终时升至接近85美元的水平.

EIA预计,今年美国液体燃料需求将在五年内出现首次上升.美国国内需求上升,外加中印等国更强劲的需求增势,将帮助降低石油库存.

"将全球经济描绘成一片惨淡是不对的,"摩根大通在周三的一份报告中称.该行称,印度汽油需求较上年同期增长近15%,因汽车销量飙升.

EIA数据显示,美国汽油需求增长则温和得多,上周汽油需求为946万桶,较2009年同期增长2.8%.馏分油需求则较2009年同期增长6%.(完)