國際能源署（IEA）週一說﹐廉價天然氣的供應日益充裕﹐再加上中國對燃料的需求不斷增長以及日本福島核災難的影響﹐這可能已為“天然氣的黃金時代”打下了基礎。
在玻利維亞El Alto﹐一名工人正在天然氣儲藏罐徬進行記錄。據IEA設想﹐全球的天然氣消費量未來25年內有可能增長50%以上﹐到2035年時﹐天然氣需求量將佔全球能源總需求量的25%以上﹐高於目前21%的水平。
但IEA也警告說﹐儘管天然氣是一種比煤炭和石油更清潔的能源﹐但它仍然是化石燃料﹐天然氣的使用量增加將使更多可導致全球變暖的溫室氣體被排放出來。天然氣使用量的增加還意味著﹐可再生能源與核能等低碳能源的使用量會相應減少。IEA的總幹事田中伸男（Nobuo Tanaka）說﹐僅僅增加天然氣的使用量不是應對氣候變化的萬能藥。
全球天然氣市場目前正經歷一場革命﹐它對能源行業的未來有著巨大影響。在美國﹐“水力壓裂”等新技術的出現使美國從德克薩斯到賓夕法尼亞的廣大地區新具備了眾多可採天然氣儲量﹐從而推動天然氣產量大幅增長。
所謂水力壓裂技術﹐就是將加有化學製劑的水注入到地下﹐從而擠壓開蘊藏有天然氣的高密度頁巖。這些技術現在正被運用到中國等頁巖氣資源豐富的其他國家。IEA說﹐未來25年中﹐全球天然氣增長量的40%將來自非傳統天然氣。
這場頁巖革命已導致全球天然氣總儲量的估測值被大幅上調。IEA說﹐以目前的生產水平﹐全球已探明的天然氣資源還可再開採250年以上。與石油集中蘊藏在政治局勢不穩的中東地區不同﹐天然氣廣泛分佈在世界許多地區﹐這使天然氣從能源安全的角度看很具吸引力。
頁巖氣的興起恰好與液化天然氣全球貿易的大規模擴張相吻合。液化天然氣的出現改變了幾十年來只能通過管道運輸天然氣的歷史﹐大大普及了天然氣的使用。天然氣也受益於福島核危機的負面影響。福島核危機迫使日本關閉了國內多座核電站﹐日本的天然氣需求在此之後大幅上升。長期來看﹐德國的天然氣消費量預計也將大大增加﹐德國上個月決定關閉國內17座核反應堆。
但國際能源署說未來幾年決定全球天然氣市場發展的關鍵因素可能還是中國。在中國﹐政府決定在發電時以天然氣替代煤炭﹐以改善國內嚴重污染城市的空氣質量﹐並推廣更多以天然氣而非汽油為動力的商用車和公共汽車。這些都是促成需求激增的因素。
按照國際能源署提出的“天然氣黃金時代”的新設想﹐到2035年﹐中國天然氣消費量將從2010年和德國相當的水平上升至與整個歐盟相當的水平。為了滿足需求的增長﹐到2035年前天然氣年產量必須增加1.8萬億立方米﹐這個數字大約是俄羅斯當前產量的三倍。
國際能源署對頁巖氣開採的繁榮也顯得有些謹慎﹐說人們擔心水力壓裂技術可能給環境帶來負面影響﹐頁巖氣的生產前景因此“並不確定”。一些環保團體擔心水力壓裂技術會污染飲用水﹐但業內人士堅持說只要操作得當﹐這種技術是安全的。
國際能源署首席經濟學家比羅爾（Fatih Birol）說﹐該機構提出的未來天然氣消費量激增的前景取決於好幾個因素﹐其中包括這個行業能否完全化解公眾對水力壓裂技術、過渡用水問題以及污染風險的擔憂。比羅爾說﹐如果天然氣公司想步入天然氣的黃金時代﹐就得應用天然氣生產的黃金標準。
Guy Chazan
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2011年6月7日 星期二
2011年5月31日 星期二
《阳歌专栏》中国汽车业：当繁荣已成往事
中国最新的月度汽车销售数据出炉了，4月份汽车销量小幅下降，这也是2009年和2010年中国汽车繁荣局面已成过去式的最新证据。
但更令人担心的是，汇编该数据的协会给出了非常悲观的预测，称今年实际的汽车销售数量可能会从2010年的创纪录水平下挫10%。
中国2010年超越美国，成为世界上最大的汽车市场。该协会就这种快速冷却的情况给出了多个理由，包括政府刺激政策的终止、高昂的燃料价格以及北京、上海等城市为缓解城市交通拥堵而限制新车销售等举措。
的确，我的很多朋友过去到哪里都要开车，最近几周却很不可思议地转乘公共交通。过去几年，中国主要城市的公共交通得到了极大改善。汽车业人气的巨大转变说明了一个事实，即汽车销售不再是中国政府优先发展的市场，这将伤及通用汽车(GM.N: 行情)和大众汽车(VOWG.DE: 行情)等汽车业巨头的利益，更不用提上海汽车(SAIC)(600104.SS: 行情)、吉利(0175.HK: 行情)和比亚迪(1211.HK: 行情)等本土汽车商。
因国内市场销量强劲，上述国内汽车商都发布了丰厚的利润收益报告。中国政府当然会继续支持替代的能源型汽车，尽管未来几年，新能源汽车的市场比重依然很小。同时，中国主要汽车生产商在未来1-2年内还有一条艰难的路要走。
**联合利华帮助中国向市场经济迈进**
我刚刚在我最喜欢的西饼店吃完早餐，西饼店新的菜单使我发现，今天早晨的价格上涨了约10%，这和我要写的这一则分析遥相呼应。我要说的新闻是，中国最终接受了联合利华(ULVR.L: 行情)UNc新一轮的涨价，该公司三月份就谈论过涨价一事，当时便引发了一场大风暴。
很多人可能还记得，当时说可能会涨价的传言引发了一波恐慌性抢购，导致中国政府史无前例地，尽管也是象征性地对联合利华罚款30万美元。《中国日报》报导称，国家发改委经过深思熟虑裁定联合利华的举动系“企业决策”，言下之意就是，并非出于榨取中国消费者更多钱财的贪婪动机。
事实就摆在那里，生活在中国境内外的人都清楚了解从消费品到汽油等很多物价在上涨。中国领导人允许联合利华涨价也意味着，当其他国内企业或跨国企业作出类似涨价举动时，媒体很可能不再会对其进行死缠烂打。尽管担心国内通胀局面，但中国政府最终意识到，这一轮通胀是全球现象，除非愿意回到过去的计划经济时代，否则中国只能让市场自行决定，而政府配合使用货币政策加以引导。恭喜中国政府！
一句话：中国政府允许联合利华涨价只是再次向市场保证，中国不会为抑制通胀而进行价格操控。
一句话：燃料价格的高企、政府刺激举措的终止、限制购买新车的举措将在未来1-2年为中国的汽车销售投下阴影。
但更令人担心的是，汇编该数据的协会给出了非常悲观的预测，称今年实际的汽车销售数量可能会从2010年的创纪录水平下挫10%。
中国2010年超越美国，成为世界上最大的汽车市场。该协会就这种快速冷却的情况给出了多个理由，包括政府刺激政策的终止、高昂的燃料价格以及北京、上海等城市为缓解城市交通拥堵而限制新车销售等举措。
的确，我的很多朋友过去到哪里都要开车，最近几周却很不可思议地转乘公共交通。过去几年，中国主要城市的公共交通得到了极大改善。汽车业人气的巨大转变说明了一个事实，即汽车销售不再是中国政府优先发展的市场，这将伤及通用汽车(GM.N: 行情)和大众汽车(VOWG.DE: 行情)等汽车业巨头的利益，更不用提上海汽车(SAIC)(600104.SS: 行情)、吉利(0175.HK: 行情)和比亚迪(1211.HK: 行情)等本土汽车商。
因国内市场销量强劲，上述国内汽车商都发布了丰厚的利润收益报告。中国政府当然会继续支持替代的能源型汽车，尽管未来几年，新能源汽车的市场比重依然很小。同时，中国主要汽车生产商在未来1-2年内还有一条艰难的路要走。
**联合利华帮助中国向市场经济迈进**
我刚刚在我最喜欢的西饼店吃完早餐，西饼店新的菜单使我发现，今天早晨的价格上涨了约10%，这和我要写的这一则分析遥相呼应。我要说的新闻是，中国最终接受了联合利华(ULVR.L: 行情)UNc新一轮的涨价，该公司三月份就谈论过涨价一事，当时便引发了一场大风暴。
很多人可能还记得，当时说可能会涨价的传言引发了一波恐慌性抢购，导致中国政府史无前例地，尽管也是象征性地对联合利华罚款30万美元。《中国日报》报导称，国家发改委经过深思熟虑裁定联合利华的举动系“企业决策”，言下之意就是，并非出于榨取中国消费者更多钱财的贪婪动机。
事实就摆在那里，生活在中国境内外的人都清楚了解从消费品到汽油等很多物价在上涨。中国领导人允许联合利华涨价也意味着，当其他国内企业或跨国企业作出类似涨价举动时，媒体很可能不再会对其进行死缠烂打。尽管担心国内通胀局面，但中国政府最终意识到，这一轮通胀是全球现象，除非愿意回到过去的计划经济时代，否则中国只能让市场自行决定，而政府配合使用货币政策加以引导。恭喜中国政府！
一句话：中国政府允许联合利华涨价只是再次向市场保证，中国不会为抑制通胀而进行价格操控。
一句话：燃料价格的高企、政府刺激举措的终止、限制购买新车的举措将在未来1-2年为中国的汽车销售投下阴影。
2011年5月29日 星期日
煤價上漲的利弊
自美國在去年10月底宣布推出QE2，而令商品價格大升以來，過去半年，國際煤價不斷受到刺激；除了今年1月出現澳洲水災，影響煤礦生產推高煤價外，到3月份，日本核危機發生後，又因為憧憬減慢對火電的淘汰，令市場將注意力重投火電，燃煤的需求再被推高；再加上國際油價上升，推高燃煤運輸成本，眾多因素都成為推動煤價上漲的強勁動力。
招商證券（香港）董事總經理溫天納指出，日本民眾將來對新建核電廠的態度勢必非常保守，而該國目前逾60%能源仍依賴火力發電，每年進口煤炭量佔全球20%，若今後增加火電以取代部分核電，對燃煤的需求推動很大。另一方面，煤炭佔中國能源比重更高達70%，而且以往東北地區充裕的煤炭產量已落後於經濟發展速度；中國由2009年起變成煤炭淨進口國，去年淨進口量增加16%，至1.2億噸，佔全球13%，預料今年將進一步增至1.5億噸，亦成為進一步帶動煤價上漲的因素。
事實上，中日因素已助國際煤價在近十二個月累升31.4%，且更屢創新高。受到國際煤價上升的帶動，內地煤價亦不斷上漲，除了秦皇島港、廣州港的煤炭價格上升，其中，5500大卡的環渤海動力煤綜合平均價格，就由去年9月底的每噸715元（人民幣．下同），升至5月18日的827元，升幅達15.66%。而且，這種漲價情況更蔓延至內陸地區，連內蒙古鄂爾多斯市煤價亦在4月首兩周內漲了40元。根據中日電廠4月初與歐洲礦商簽署的2012年度供煤合約，預料明年價格將再升逾30%。
燃煤在需求與價格同時上升下，煤股盈利可觀，神華（1088）今年首季盈利升近17%，中煤（1898）首季盈利則增16%。不過，國際煤價上漲，導致一些內地小電廠面臨收縮及關閉，令電力供應面臨壓力；近日內地傳媒就報導指，還未踏入夏天旺季，江蘇、浙江、江西、安徽、廣東、重慶、湖南等省份已出現電荒。目前，內地缺電愈演愈烈，一些用電大省為搶購電煤，甚至動用行政手段，令搶購大戰已悄然而至。
據《21世紀經濟》報道，70%以上電煤依賴省外的山東省，近期首先通過行政手段將電煤儲備耗用天數提高至三十天；對於未達考核要求、因缺煤影響正常發電的公用電廠，山東省將相應扣減其年度發電量計劃，在協調追求省內電煤供應計劃時，這些企業也不再列入支持範圍。內地傳媒更引述一家煤企負責人指，多家煤企已收到國家發改委的內部文件，要求嚴控電煤煤價，不得輕易上漲，而控制的範圍已經不僅限於重點電煤價格，而是所有的電煤價格。
另外，為了更好地平衡供需，北京商報就引述國家能源局消息指，今年將啟動建設「國家煤庫」，今年首批儲備為500萬噸，預期總規模預計達到2000多萬噸。設立儲備的其中一個好處，就是可以調控淡季及旺季之間的價格波動。不過，對於目前內地每年30億噸的煤炭消費量來說，上述儲備的價格穩定作用，似乎只是聊勝於無。
不過，負面因素卻是，在煤庫的建設過程中，可能會短暫時間之內，拉高煤炭需求，令短期煤價有上升壓力。而在實際操作中，煤炭儲備比石油儲備更具難度，煤炭儲存量越大，周轉時間越長，財務成本越高；加上煤炭的儲存期限通常只有3個月，時間愈長，品質愈降。還有另一個問題，就是煤炭儲存中會發生自燃，需要淋水降溫，增加了人工成本。
無論如何，過去一年來，內地煤電之間的矛盾一直未解決：煤價飛漲的同時，電價一直被壓抑，令電企不願發電可說是預期之內的事，加上隨夏季用電高峰來臨，多省電煤更是告急，增強「電荒」現象向全國蔓延的趨勢。不過，為免推高通脹，發改委不願使出電企渴求已久的加電費這一招，只能從約談煤企入手。這樣做，對於煤企來說，產煤積極性以及利潤必定明顯下降；對於出現虧損的電企來說，真正需要的是煤價下降或電價上升，所以維持煤價不變，相信得益有限；結果，問題照舊，而煤股及電股面對政策的進一步不確定性，對它們的營運發展與股價皆帶來重要影響。
煤電皆面對政策的不確定性，令這兩個板塊的整體估值都難以上調。根據近來發改委下發的《關於切實保障電煤供應穩定電煤價格的緊急通知》指出，煤電雙方要銜接好今年度電煤供需合同，將今年重點合同電煤價格維持去年水平不變，不得以任何形式變相漲價。這意味今年電煤價格，將維持在去年重點電煤合同價格每噸520元（人民幣．下同）的水平，但此水平與目前市場煤價有約200元的價差。
神華（1088）有65%銷售為合約煤；
中煤（1898）有73%銷售為合約煤；
兗煤（1171）僅售25%合約煤。
若限制合約煤價導至減產，電企需更多現貨煤，會令現貨煤價強勢，會進一步利好兗煤。若2011年合約煤價維持2010年水平，意味現貨煤高於合約煤價40%，煤企減少銷售合約煤誘因很大。
投資者除了要小心計算政策風險之外，亦要留意上述煤企「走出去」的步伐。事實上，一如內地石油、天然氣等企業紛紛向外進行收購行動，近年來，煤企亦為擴大資源版圖而向外進行收購，當中以兗州煤業的表現與成果最顯著。
基於集團近年積極進行收購合併，兗煤於澳洲Moolarben的煤礦在2010年投產，帶來新增產能；帶動集團全年商品煤產量按年急升27%，連同貿易煤在內，去年全年銷量按年上升近31%，至4,963萬噸。由於成功控制生產成本，令毛利率由09年的44.2%上升至去年的44.4%。
兗煤以現貨結算之煤價比例為眾多本港上市動力煤（Thermal coal）供應商中比例最高（72%），近期動力煤價格持續上升，對兗煤的盈利表現有正面作用。事實上，集團去年綜合煤價上漲18%至每噸726元，其中，兗煤澳洲漲幅達53%。雖然發改委規定今年內地重點合同煤價不得提高，但兗煤以現貨銷售為主，澳洲煤價更不受限制，未來業績表現將可受惠現貨煤價和國際煤價持續上揚而水漲船高。
另外，兗煤的另一吸引力在於持有的外幣尤其是澳元貸款，這為集團提供額外但顯著的匯兌收益。根據兗煤公佈2010 年的92.81 億元純利中，匯兌收益就達到27 億元，佔29%。今年首季，澳元兌美元按季升1.03%，兌人民幣按季升0.11%，已令兗煤每股盈利增加4.6分。第二季至今，澳元兌人民幣升值5.05%，為首季的48倍，兌美元升值5.6%，為首季的5.4倍。
展望今年，集團預期今年商品煤產量按年增長約10%，至5,400萬噸，惟主要增長來自現貨煤及澳洲產值較高的焦煤，加上展望今年商品煤價格持續表現強勢，預期今年營業額增長將高於10%。從最近國內電煤及焦煤價格以及澳元相對美元持續升值等走勢看，兗煤的預增公告，看來頗為保守。
根據過往表現計算，兗煤首季盈利大約為全年盈利的20至25%之間，平均大約為全年盈利的22%。依此推算，未計算煤價及澳元兌美元及人民幣升值因素，兗煤全年盈利應該在100億至124億元之間，相當於每股2至2.5元(2.4至3港元)，以5月20日收市價30.3港元計算，預期市盈率為10.1至12.625倍之間。
值得關注的是，兗州煤業食髓知味，正進行自2009年斥資32億美元購買澳洲FelixResources以來的另一宗最大收購。據市場消息透露，兗煤正競標收購澳洲煤礦企業WhitehavenCoal，出價至少37億美元。WhitehavenCoal是澳大利亞上市公司，其礦產主要位於澳大利亞東南部的新南威爾士州，擁有四個露天煤礦，2010財年收入為4億澳元，稅前收益超過1億澳元。WhitehavenCoal日前表示，中標者將於兗煤和印度AdityaBirlaGroup兩家公司中產生。市場相信，若成功中標，或可為股價帶來正面的刺激作用。
另一龍頭煤企中國神華亦公佈首季數據。受惠於煤炭售量和售價均有明顯提升，神華首季凈利潤基本每股收益0.526元，同比增長17.3%。首季商品煤產量達70.4百萬噸，完成年度經營目標的27.3%，比去年同期增長15.2%；煤炭銷售量達93.4百萬噸，完成年度經營目標的26.7%，同比增長36%；總售電量為366.7億千瓦時，完成年度經營目標的24.1%，同比增長21.5%。
神華首季國內煤炭平均售價為每噸417.1元，比去年同期增長4.8%；但煤炭成本上漲幅度也不容忽視，因為人工成本上漲，自產煤業務成本為115.2元/噸，增長6.5%。根據市場綜合預測數據，以5月20日收市價36.6元計算，神華的2011年度預測市盈率為14.6倍。
目前，神華的國外收購行動中，以集團與日本三井物產（Mitsui &；Co）合作競標蒙古最大煤礦塔溫陶勒蓋Tavan Tolgoi煤田的Tsankhi礦區西區塊煤礦開採專案最吸引市場眼球，競標者包括淡水河谷及力拓。中投顧問研究總監張硯霖指出，中國神華集團具有較大的優勢，因而獲得塔本陶勒蓋煤田專案的成功幾率也相對較大。
塔溫陶勒蓋煤礦是目前世界上最大的未開采煤礦，位於蒙古南部南戈壁省省會達楞紮德蓋圖市以東約100公裏，南至中國邊界的甘其毛都口岸約有255公里，直線距離僅有180公里，而往東距離出海口則遠至5000公里。礦區煤炭儲藏面積達400平方公裏，煤層厚度190米，共16層，該煤礦屬優質煉焦用煤，原煤出焦率60％以上，是世界上緊缺煤種，亦是黑色冶金工業的主要原料。初步探明的焦煤儲量約為64億噸，其中主焦煤18億噸，動力煤46億噸，價值高達3000多億美元。不過，塔溫陶勒蓋所在的南戈壁省在電力、公路等基礎設施領域卻非常缺乏。
中投顧問研究指出，「神華集團正在修建中蒙之間的運煤鐵路，這是集團在競標上的最大優勢，蒙古無論是對中國出口煤炭資源還是借道中國，對其他國家出口煤炭，鐵路運輸都是最佳選擇。另外，此次與神華集團合作的三井物產此前就代理神華集團在日的煤炭銷售業務，這對於今後蒙古國的焦煤在日銷售也是一個較為有利的條件。」
不過，投資者要留意，神華的「走出去」步伐完全落後於兗煤，令市場在選擇時更傾向於後者。加上神華是煤電一體企業，估值上或多或少不及兗煤簡單與吸引。因此，我們建議將注意力集中在兗州煤業身上。
招商證券（香港）董事總經理溫天納指出，日本民眾將來對新建核電廠的態度勢必非常保守，而該國目前逾60%能源仍依賴火力發電，每年進口煤炭量佔全球20%，若今後增加火電以取代部分核電，對燃煤的需求推動很大。另一方面，煤炭佔中國能源比重更高達70%，而且以往東北地區充裕的煤炭產量已落後於經濟發展速度；中國由2009年起變成煤炭淨進口國，去年淨進口量增加16%，至1.2億噸，佔全球13%，預料今年將進一步增至1.5億噸，亦成為進一步帶動煤價上漲的因素。
事實上，中日因素已助國際煤價在近十二個月累升31.4%，且更屢創新高。受到國際煤價上升的帶動，內地煤價亦不斷上漲，除了秦皇島港、廣州港的煤炭價格上升，其中，5500大卡的環渤海動力煤綜合平均價格，就由去年9月底的每噸715元（人民幣．下同），升至5月18日的827元，升幅達15.66%。而且，這種漲價情況更蔓延至內陸地區，連內蒙古鄂爾多斯市煤價亦在4月首兩周內漲了40元。根據中日電廠4月初與歐洲礦商簽署的2012年度供煤合約，預料明年價格將再升逾30%。
燃煤在需求與價格同時上升下，煤股盈利可觀，神華（1088）今年首季盈利升近17%，中煤（1898）首季盈利則增16%。不過，國際煤價上漲，導致一些內地小電廠面臨收縮及關閉，令電力供應面臨壓力；近日內地傳媒就報導指，還未踏入夏天旺季，江蘇、浙江、江西、安徽、廣東、重慶、湖南等省份已出現電荒。目前，內地缺電愈演愈烈，一些用電大省為搶購電煤，甚至動用行政手段，令搶購大戰已悄然而至。
據《21世紀經濟》報道，70%以上電煤依賴省外的山東省，近期首先通過行政手段將電煤儲備耗用天數提高至三十天；對於未達考核要求、因缺煤影響正常發電的公用電廠，山東省將相應扣減其年度發電量計劃，在協調追求省內電煤供應計劃時，這些企業也不再列入支持範圍。內地傳媒更引述一家煤企負責人指，多家煤企已收到國家發改委的內部文件，要求嚴控電煤煤價，不得輕易上漲，而控制的範圍已經不僅限於重點電煤價格，而是所有的電煤價格。
另外，為了更好地平衡供需，北京商報就引述國家能源局消息指，今年將啟動建設「國家煤庫」，今年首批儲備為500萬噸，預期總規模預計達到2000多萬噸。設立儲備的其中一個好處，就是可以調控淡季及旺季之間的價格波動。不過，對於目前內地每年30億噸的煤炭消費量來說，上述儲備的價格穩定作用，似乎只是聊勝於無。
不過，負面因素卻是，在煤庫的建設過程中，可能會短暫時間之內，拉高煤炭需求，令短期煤價有上升壓力。而在實際操作中，煤炭儲備比石油儲備更具難度，煤炭儲存量越大，周轉時間越長，財務成本越高；加上煤炭的儲存期限通常只有3個月，時間愈長，品質愈降。還有另一個問題，就是煤炭儲存中會發生自燃，需要淋水降溫，增加了人工成本。
無論如何，過去一年來，內地煤電之間的矛盾一直未解決：煤價飛漲的同時，電價一直被壓抑，令電企不願發電可說是預期之內的事，加上隨夏季用電高峰來臨，多省電煤更是告急，增強「電荒」現象向全國蔓延的趨勢。不過，為免推高通脹，發改委不願使出電企渴求已久的加電費這一招，只能從約談煤企入手。這樣做，對於煤企來說，產煤積極性以及利潤必定明顯下降；對於出現虧損的電企來說，真正需要的是煤價下降或電價上升，所以維持煤價不變，相信得益有限；結果，問題照舊，而煤股及電股面對政策的進一步不確定性，對它們的營運發展與股價皆帶來重要影響。
煤電皆面對政策的不確定性，令這兩個板塊的整體估值都難以上調。根據近來發改委下發的《關於切實保障電煤供應穩定電煤價格的緊急通知》指出，煤電雙方要銜接好今年度電煤供需合同，將今年重點合同電煤價格維持去年水平不變，不得以任何形式變相漲價。這意味今年電煤價格，將維持在去年重點電煤合同價格每噸520元（人民幣．下同）的水平，但此水平與目前市場煤價有約200元的價差。
神華（1088）有65%銷售為合約煤；
中煤（1898）有73%銷售為合約煤；
兗煤（1171）僅售25%合約煤。
若限制合約煤價導至減產，電企需更多現貨煤，會令現貨煤價強勢，會進一步利好兗煤。若2011年合約煤價維持2010年水平，意味現貨煤高於合約煤價40%，煤企減少銷售合約煤誘因很大。
投資者除了要小心計算政策風險之外，亦要留意上述煤企「走出去」的步伐。事實上，一如內地石油、天然氣等企業紛紛向外進行收購行動，近年來，煤企亦為擴大資源版圖而向外進行收購，當中以兗州煤業的表現與成果最顯著。
基於集團近年積極進行收購合併，兗煤於澳洲Moolarben的煤礦在2010年投產，帶來新增產能；帶動集團全年商品煤產量按年急升27%，連同貿易煤在內，去年全年銷量按年上升近31%，至4,963萬噸。由於成功控制生產成本，令毛利率由09年的44.2%上升至去年的44.4%。
兗煤以現貨結算之煤價比例為眾多本港上市動力煤（Thermal coal）供應商中比例最高（72%），近期動力煤價格持續上升，對兗煤的盈利表現有正面作用。事實上，集團去年綜合煤價上漲18%至每噸726元，其中，兗煤澳洲漲幅達53%。雖然發改委規定今年內地重點合同煤價不得提高，但兗煤以現貨銷售為主，澳洲煤價更不受限制，未來業績表現將可受惠現貨煤價和國際煤價持續上揚而水漲船高。
另外，兗煤的另一吸引力在於持有的外幣尤其是澳元貸款，這為集團提供額外但顯著的匯兌收益。根據兗煤公佈2010 年的92.81 億元純利中，匯兌收益就達到27 億元，佔29%。今年首季，澳元兌美元按季升1.03%，兌人民幣按季升0.11%，已令兗煤每股盈利增加4.6分。第二季至今，澳元兌人民幣升值5.05%，為首季的48倍，兌美元升值5.6%，為首季的5.4倍。
展望今年，集團預期今年商品煤產量按年增長約10%，至5,400萬噸，惟主要增長來自現貨煤及澳洲產值較高的焦煤，加上展望今年商品煤價格持續表現強勢，預期今年營業額增長將高於10%。從最近國內電煤及焦煤價格以及澳元相對美元持續升值等走勢看，兗煤的預增公告，看來頗為保守。
根據過往表現計算，兗煤首季盈利大約為全年盈利的20至25%之間，平均大約為全年盈利的22%。依此推算，未計算煤價及澳元兌美元及人民幣升值因素，兗煤全年盈利應該在100億至124億元之間，相當於每股2至2.5元(2.4至3港元)，以5月20日收市價30.3港元計算，預期市盈率為10.1至12.625倍之間。
值得關注的是，兗州煤業食髓知味，正進行自2009年斥資32億美元購買澳洲FelixResources以來的另一宗最大收購。據市場消息透露，兗煤正競標收購澳洲煤礦企業WhitehavenCoal，出價至少37億美元。WhitehavenCoal是澳大利亞上市公司，其礦產主要位於澳大利亞東南部的新南威爾士州，擁有四個露天煤礦，2010財年收入為4億澳元，稅前收益超過1億澳元。WhitehavenCoal日前表示，中標者將於兗煤和印度AdityaBirlaGroup兩家公司中產生。市場相信，若成功中標，或可為股價帶來正面的刺激作用。
另一龍頭煤企中國神華亦公佈首季數據。受惠於煤炭售量和售價均有明顯提升，神華首季凈利潤基本每股收益0.526元，同比增長17.3%。首季商品煤產量達70.4百萬噸，完成年度經營目標的27.3%，比去年同期增長15.2%；煤炭銷售量達93.4百萬噸，完成年度經營目標的26.7%，同比增長36%；總售電量為366.7億千瓦時，完成年度經營目標的24.1%，同比增長21.5%。
神華首季國內煤炭平均售價為每噸417.1元，比去年同期增長4.8%；但煤炭成本上漲幅度也不容忽視，因為人工成本上漲，自產煤業務成本為115.2元/噸，增長6.5%。根據市場綜合預測數據，以5月20日收市價36.6元計算，神華的2011年度預測市盈率為14.6倍。
目前，神華的國外收購行動中，以集團與日本三井物產（Mitsui &；Co）合作競標蒙古最大煤礦塔溫陶勒蓋Tavan Tolgoi煤田的Tsankhi礦區西區塊煤礦開採專案最吸引市場眼球，競標者包括淡水河谷及力拓。中投顧問研究總監張硯霖指出，中國神華集團具有較大的優勢，因而獲得塔本陶勒蓋煤田專案的成功幾率也相對較大。
塔溫陶勒蓋煤礦是目前世界上最大的未開采煤礦，位於蒙古南部南戈壁省省會達楞紮德蓋圖市以東約100公裏，南至中國邊界的甘其毛都口岸約有255公里，直線距離僅有180公里，而往東距離出海口則遠至5000公里。礦區煤炭儲藏面積達400平方公裏，煤層厚度190米，共16層，該煤礦屬優質煉焦用煤，原煤出焦率60％以上，是世界上緊缺煤種，亦是黑色冶金工業的主要原料。初步探明的焦煤儲量約為64億噸，其中主焦煤18億噸，動力煤46億噸，價值高達3000多億美元。不過，塔溫陶勒蓋所在的南戈壁省在電力、公路等基礎設施領域卻非常缺乏。
中投顧問研究指出，「神華集團正在修建中蒙之間的運煤鐵路，這是集團在競標上的最大優勢，蒙古無論是對中國出口煤炭資源還是借道中國，對其他國家出口煤炭，鐵路運輸都是最佳選擇。另外，此次與神華集團合作的三井物產此前就代理神華集團在日的煤炭銷售業務，這對於今後蒙古國的焦煤在日銷售也是一個較為有利的條件。」
不過，投資者要留意，神華的「走出去」步伐完全落後於兗煤，令市場在選擇時更傾向於後者。加上神華是煤電一體企業，估值上或多或少不及兗煤簡單與吸引。因此，我們建議將注意力集中在兗州煤業身上。
2011年1月9日 星期日
光汇石油 (933)
摘要
唯一一家獲授許可、從事中國保稅海上供油業務的私營 (政府只發出了五張經營牌照(五個包括：中國船舶燃料、深圳光滙石油、中石化三家子公司)
•南中國地區最大海上供油服務供應商，業務遍及深圳、上海、寧波、舟山等中國主要港口
•把業務拓展至香港、新加坡、馬來西亞及鹿特丹，並計劃擴展至中國其他主要港口包括：日照、大連、天津及青島等，以及休斯頓及全球其他重要港口
•中國港口吞吐量與日俱增，為海上供油業務帶來龐大需求
•於大連及舟山開始興建大型石油倉儲及碼頭設施，總庫容最多可達至1,750萬立方米
•兩個倉儲設施均位處稀有的沿岸深水港，與國家石油網連接
•購入四艘遠洋油輪，每艘愈100,000載重噸，Already 交付 (2 only from Sept/Oct 2010)
•收購5艘318,000載重噸超大型油輪，將於2012年7月至2013年3月期間交付
•加快燃油採購程序及完善海上供油業務之運作
•與中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)於新疆吐孜合作開展天然氣項目，項目鄰近國家天然氣管道 (2011年下半年開始投產)
•天然氣價格上升，對此項目大有裨益
海上供油綜合供應鏈-現時
海上運輸 - 新加坡–深圳
石油倉儲及碼頭 - 深圳
全球海上供油服務 - 國內不同港口
將來
預期於未來12至18個月投入服務的港口 NY, LA, Hounston, Spain, 孟買, 富吉拉, 廣州, Toyko, 天津, Dalianm Tsangdo, 釜山, 廈門, 日照
在舟山及大連建立先進的石油產品物流中心，可容納超大型油輪(VLCC)
上市公司與深圳光滙石油之關係
深圳光滙石油 - 持有經營牌照 and 深圳總庫 (Not 光汇石油 (933))
深圳光滙石油is 100% owned by 薛光林
光滙石油 only75.81% owned by 薛光林
唯一一家獲授許可、從事中國保稅海上供油業務的私營 (政府只發出了五張經營牌照(五個包括：中國船舶燃料、深圳光滙石油、中石化三家子公司)
•南中國地區最大海上供油服務供應商，業務遍及深圳、上海、寧波、舟山等中國主要港口
•把業務拓展至香港、新加坡、馬來西亞及鹿特丹，並計劃擴展至中國其他主要港口包括：日照、大連、天津及青島等，以及休斯頓及全球其他重要港口
•中國港口吞吐量與日俱增，為海上供油業務帶來龐大需求
•於大連及舟山開始興建大型石油倉儲及碼頭設施，總庫容最多可達至1,750萬立方米
•兩個倉儲設施均位處稀有的沿岸深水港，與國家石油網連接
•購入四艘遠洋油輪，每艘愈100,000載重噸，Already 交付 (2 only from Sept/Oct 2010)
•收購5艘318,000載重噸超大型油輪，將於2012年7月至2013年3月期間交付
•加快燃油採購程序及完善海上供油業務之運作
•與中國石油天然氣集團公司(CNPC)於新疆吐孜合作開展天然氣項目，項目鄰近國家天然氣管道 (2011年下半年開始投產)
•天然氣價格上升，對此項目大有裨益
海上供油綜合供應鏈-現時
海上運輸 - 新加坡–深圳
石油倉儲及碼頭 - 深圳
全球海上供油服務 - 國內不同港口
將來
預期於未來12至18個月投入服務的港口 NY, LA, Hounston, Spain, 孟買, 富吉拉, 廣州, Toyko, 天津, Dalianm Tsangdo, 釜山, 廈門, 日照
在舟山及大連建立先進的石油產品物流中心，可容納超大型油輪(VLCC)
上市公司與深圳光滙石油之關係
深圳光滙石油 - 持有經營牌照 and 深圳總庫 (Not 光汇石油 (933))
深圳光滙石油is 100% owned by 薛光林
光滙石油 only75.81% owned by 薛光林
2011年1月8日 星期六
賽得利控股有限公司 (1768)
BUSINESS
全球最大的特種纖纖素生產商之一
涉及林木種植、纖維素漿生產以及黏膠纖維生產
中國最大的溶解木漿供應商，佔中國總進口粘膠級溶解木漿40%
粘膠纖維應用於紡織品和非紡織品，如嬰兒及家用濕巾、個人衛生產品、醫用吸水墊及其它吸水產品的製造。
溶解木漿廣泛應用於油漆、香煙過濾嘴、液晶顯示器、高性能輪胎、食品、醫藥品、洗滌劑等各種產品的生產製造。
上遊溶解木漿業務與下遊黏膠短纖業務垂直整合的業務模式
母公司新加坡金鷹集團
ASSET
一個溶解漿廠 巴西巴伊亞
印尼多巴 年產能約46.5萬噸 全球總供應量10%
一個粘膠纖維廠 中國江西省 年產能約12萬公噸 公司產能排全球第9
產品銷售亞洲、美洲和歐洲，
2009年大陸銷售收入占86%
賽得利(江西)是一家完全外商獨資的粘膠纖維廠商，年產7萬噸差別化粘膠纖維
成長發展
2010年9月- 福建莆田開建纖維生產基地 (30億)，年產能20萬噸，11年年底前投產。
2013年底在巴西擴充溶解木漿產能8.5萬公噸，較現有產能增加18%，資本開支約20億港元。
2012年在福建新建粘膠短纖產能20萬公噸，較現有產能增加1.7倍，資本開支約33.8億港元。
募集資金在下限.....預計future more 集資? 資本開支 until 2013 will cost 53.8億港元
正面
有自己的苗圃和研究中心，致力於以可持續發展和保護環境的方式生產優質木材
低成本 - 巴伊亞經營15萬公頃的種植園(上游)，桉樹占8.4萬公頃(為生產溶解木漿提供主要原材料) 低木材價格波動的敏感度，減少了原材料成本的波動, 便利水路運輸，離削減了運輸成本，公司生產于全球溶解木漿業中屬最低
業務模式 - 垂直整合，公司可在價值鏈的多個環節中，有效給產品定價，並將綜合利潤最大化
品種范圍廣泛，特種纖維素產品種類達到十種產品，遠高于同業平均的5.3種
行業概覽
1)根據PCI Fibres的資料，中國是目前粘膠漿需求最大、發展最快的市場，2009年溶解木漿需求約為3.4百萬公噸，而視乎純度及應用類型，溶解木漿一般分為黏膠漿及特種漿兩大類，分別佔溶解木漿需求的 70%和30%。
因黏膠短纖穿著舒適、易于染色及易于打理等優點，較聚酯纖維更受歡迎。全球人口增加及經濟增長擴大了對紡織用黏膠短纖的需求，對溶解木漿的需求隨之擴大。
近年出現的新用途擴大了對溶解木漿的需求，如用于生產LCD保護層、一次性紙巾等。
預計到2012年溶解木漿需求將增長至 4.4百萬公噸，復合年增長率為9.3%. *CURRENTLY OVERSUPPLY?
目前全球有17家主要溶解木漿生產商，共經營21家工廠，五大生產商共佔全球溶解木漿產能約65%。中國黏膠短纖產能的迅速增長令溶解木漿及棉絨漿的需求大增。由于國內並無溶解木漿供應，故最初需求由中國國內生產的棉絨漿來滿足。但由于近期棉價高企，同時棉絨短缺，導致棉絨漿的成本明顯高于溶解 木漿。
根據PCI Fibres的預測，中國的溶解木漿進口量由2009年的85.2萬公噸增至2012年的165.4萬公噸。公司作為中國最大的黏膠漿供應商，在中國溶解木漿進口市場的佔有率達到40%，將顯著有益于市場需求的快速增長。
黏膠短纖：
黏膠短纖是一種由纖維素組成的纖維，具有和棉紗一樣的吸水性及透氣性。
受棉花價格影響，棉紗價格也快速攀升，由于良好的替代性黏膠短纖需求大幅增加。據PCI Fibres分析，黏膠短纖的全球需求量將由2009年的254.3萬公噸增至2012年的338.3萬公噸，復合年增長率10%。其中，中國的黏膠短纖產量已佔全球市場的58%，生產廠商達到40家。
獲利能力及財務數字
近年來，公司業務大幅增長。2007年至2009年，公司總收益復合年增長率為42%，截止2010年上半年，總收益為4.4億美元，同比增長 1.4倍。其中溶解木漿和粘膠短纖作為公司主要產品，銷售收入分別佔總體營收的77%和23%。受益于中國對粘膠短纖的替代需求迅速增長，以及溶解木漿的價格優勢日益明顯，公司產品未來的需求增長空間巨大。
銷售成本方面，由于公司在巴西擁有大規模自有林地，保證所需木材全部自己供應，使得公司的生產成本于全球溶解木漿業中最低，僅為459美元/公噸，遠低于行業前十大企業650美元/公噸的平均水平，2010年上半年毛利率為55%。
因金融危機使棉花及纖維產品價格大跌，公司2008年和2009上半年出現小幅虧損，但是2010年上半年，公司已實現1.65億美元凈利潤，基本恢復到2007年36%左右的凈利潤水平。預計未來棉花及其他纖維產品價格仍是影響公司利潤的主要因素。
估值
由于公司主要產品溶解木漿及粘膠短纖的需求及價格受棉花價格影響較大，在2010年中國棉花價格呈現歷史高點，後又快速回落的背景下，預計 2010年、2011年的凈利潤分別為3.02億美元和2.7億美元，同比增長1.9倍和下降10.6%，攤薄後EPS分別為，0.09美元和0.08美 元。以公司此次招股價6.6至9.2港元計算，2011年公司PE為10.6至14.8倍基本合理。
風險因素
若由于巴西的種植園法律限制或有關我們種植園土地的訴訟及佔有糾紛的不利結果引至木材供應量減少，均可能影響溶解木漿的產量及生產成本，繼而可能影響黏膠短纖的產量及生產成本，以及日後擴展計劃。
公司有86%的收益來自中國，倘中國的需求有任何減少，均可能會影響黏膠短纖及溶解木漿的銷售能力。
公司一直透過擴充產能及產品線實現業務增長，但受到政府批文、牌照及許可證以及招募、培訓熟練雇員等因素的制約，未必能按時或根本不能完成擴展計劃，這進而會對我們的業務、財 務狀況及經營業績造成重大不利影響。
全球最大的特種纖纖素生產商之一
涉及林木種植、纖維素漿生產以及黏膠纖維生產
中國最大的溶解木漿供應商，佔中國總進口粘膠級溶解木漿40%
粘膠纖維應用於紡織品和非紡織品，如嬰兒及家用濕巾、個人衛生產品、醫用吸水墊及其它吸水產品的製造。
溶解木漿廣泛應用於油漆、香煙過濾嘴、液晶顯示器、高性能輪胎、食品、醫藥品、洗滌劑等各種產品的生產製造。
上遊溶解木漿業務與下遊黏膠短纖業務垂直整合的業務模式
母公司新加坡金鷹集團
ASSET
一個溶解漿廠 巴西巴伊亞
印尼多巴 年產能約46.5萬噸 全球總供應量10%
一個粘膠纖維廠 中國江西省 年產能約12萬公噸 公司產能排全球第9
產品銷售亞洲、美洲和歐洲，
2009年大陸銷售收入占86%
賽得利(江西)是一家完全外商獨資的粘膠纖維廠商，年產7萬噸差別化粘膠纖維
成長發展
2010年9月- 福建莆田開建纖維生產基地 (30億)，年產能20萬噸，11年年底前投產。
2013年底在巴西擴充溶解木漿產能8.5萬公噸，較現有產能增加18%，資本開支約20億港元。
2012年在福建新建粘膠短纖產能20萬公噸，較現有產能增加1.7倍，資本開支約33.8億港元。
募集資金在下限.....預計future more 集資? 資本開支 until 2013 will cost 53.8億港元
正面
有自己的苗圃和研究中心，致力於以可持續發展和保護環境的方式生產優質木材
低成本 - 巴伊亞經營15萬公頃的種植園(上游)，桉樹占8.4萬公頃(為生產溶解木漿提供主要原材料) 低木材價格波動的敏感度，減少了原材料成本的波動, 便利水路運輸，離削減了運輸成本，公司生產于全球溶解木漿業中屬最低
業務模式 - 垂直整合，公司可在價值鏈的多個環節中，有效給產品定價，並將綜合利潤最大化
品種范圍廣泛，特種纖維素產品種類達到十種產品，遠高于同業平均的5.3種
行業概覽
1)根據PCI Fibres的資料，中國是目前粘膠漿需求最大、發展最快的市場，2009年溶解木漿需求約為3.4百萬公噸，而視乎純度及應用類型，溶解木漿一般分為黏膠漿及特種漿兩大類，分別佔溶解木漿需求的 70%和30%。
因黏膠短纖穿著舒適、易于染色及易于打理等優點，較聚酯纖維更受歡迎。全球人口增加及經濟增長擴大了對紡織用黏膠短纖的需求，對溶解木漿的需求隨之擴大。
近年出現的新用途擴大了對溶解木漿的需求，如用于生產LCD保護層、一次性紙巾等。
預計到2012年溶解木漿需求將增長至 4.4百萬公噸，復合年增長率為9.3%. *CURRENTLY OVERSUPPLY?
目前全球有17家主要溶解木漿生產商，共經營21家工廠，五大生產商共佔全球溶解木漿產能約65%。中國黏膠短纖產能的迅速增長令溶解木漿及棉絨漿的需求大增。由于國內並無溶解木漿供應，故最初需求由中國國內生產的棉絨漿來滿足。但由于近期棉價高企，同時棉絨短缺，導致棉絨漿的成本明顯高于溶解 木漿。
根據PCI Fibres的預測，中國的溶解木漿進口量由2009年的85.2萬公噸增至2012年的165.4萬公噸。公司作為中國最大的黏膠漿供應商，在中國溶解木漿進口市場的佔有率達到40%，將顯著有益于市場需求的快速增長。
黏膠短纖：
黏膠短纖是一種由纖維素組成的纖維，具有和棉紗一樣的吸水性及透氣性。
受棉花價格影響，棉紗價格也快速攀升，由于良好的替代性黏膠短纖需求大幅增加。據PCI Fibres分析，黏膠短纖的全球需求量將由2009年的254.3萬公噸增至2012年的338.3萬公噸，復合年增長率10%。其中，中國的黏膠短纖產量已佔全球市場的58%，生產廠商達到40家。
獲利能力及財務數字
近年來，公司業務大幅增長。2007年至2009年，公司總收益復合年增長率為42%，截止2010年上半年，總收益為4.4億美元，同比增長 1.4倍。其中溶解木漿和粘膠短纖作為公司主要產品，銷售收入分別佔總體營收的77%和23%。受益于中國對粘膠短纖的替代需求迅速增長，以及溶解木漿的價格優勢日益明顯，公司產品未來的需求增長空間巨大。
銷售成本方面，由于公司在巴西擁有大規模自有林地，保證所需木材全部自己供應，使得公司的生產成本于全球溶解木漿業中最低，僅為459美元/公噸，遠低于行業前十大企業650美元/公噸的平均水平，2010年上半年毛利率為55%。
因金融危機使棉花及纖維產品價格大跌，公司2008年和2009上半年出現小幅虧損，但是2010年上半年，公司已實現1.65億美元凈利潤，基本恢復到2007年36%左右的凈利潤水平。預計未來棉花及其他纖維產品價格仍是影響公司利潤的主要因素。
估值
由于公司主要產品溶解木漿及粘膠短纖的需求及價格受棉花價格影響較大，在2010年中國棉花價格呈現歷史高點，後又快速回落的背景下，預計 2010年、2011年的凈利潤分別為3.02億美元和2.7億美元，同比增長1.9倍和下降10.6%，攤薄後EPS分別為，0.09美元和0.08美 元。以公司此次招股價6.6至9.2港元計算，2011年公司PE為10.6至14.8倍基本合理。
風險因素
若由于巴西的種植園法律限制或有關我們種植園土地的訴訟及佔有糾紛的不利結果引至木材供應量減少，均可能影響溶解木漿的產量及生產成本，繼而可能影響黏膠短纖的產量及生產成本，以及日後擴展計劃。
公司有86%的收益來自中國，倘中國的需求有任何減少，均可能會影響黏膠短纖及溶解木漿的銷售能力。
公司一直透過擴充產能及產品線實現業務增長，但受到政府批文、牌照及許可證以及招募、培訓熟練雇員等因素的制約，未必能按時或根本不能完成擴展計劃，這進而會對我們的業務、財 務狀況及經營業績造成重大不利影響。
2011年1月4日 星期二
《大行報告》大和首予中資彩票股「正面」評級 首選御泰(0555.HK)
大和總研首予中資彩票類股「正面」評級。報告指，中國彩票市場與全球比較仍處於擴張階段，
預期2010-2012年內地彩票市場按年分別擴張27%/24%/21%，至2012年底總體市場規模達2530億人民幣。
同時，認為新遊戲和新配售渠道亦可推動未來市場增長，令傳統彩票業可穩步擴張。該行預期，中央一旦開始向電子配售點頒發新互聯網及移動彩票許可證，彩票股將潛在上行空間。首選行業股為御泰中彩控股(0555.HK)(0555.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)，首予目標價1.2元及「買入」評級。
御泰今天重越牛熊線，高收$0.88，升7.3%，成交倍增至6595萬股。(sz/d)
預期2010-2012年內地彩票市場按年分別擴張27%/24%/21%，至2012年底總體市場規模達2530億人民幣。
同時，認為新遊戲和新配售渠道亦可推動未來市場增長，令傳統彩票業可穩步擴張。該行預期，中央一旦開始向電子配售點頒發新互聯網及移動彩票許可證，彩票股將潛在上行空間。首選行業股為御泰中彩控股(0555.HK)(0555.HK - 新聞 - 公司資料)，首予目標價1.2元及「買入」評級。
御泰今天重越牛熊線，高收$0.88，升7.3%，成交倍增至6595萬股。(sz/d)
經緯紡織(00350)
2010 -10 九個月業績將錄得淨利潤約人民幣9,500 萬元—11,000 萬元。由於經緯紡織截至6月底止半年盈利只得人民幣3000萬元左右，此表示第三季(7-9月)盈利約為人民幣6,500萬元-8,000萬元，相當於每股盈利人民幣0.109-0.134元。
2010 年第三季度淨利潤較去年同期升幅較高，主要原因是：
1. 自2010 年8 月起中融國際信托有限公司已合併入本公司 (36%)8月17日；
第三季只有一半時間計入中融國際信託的盈利貢獻
2. 公司銷售收入較去年同期增長較快，從而使公司業績與去年同期相比大幅增加。
中融國際信託的盈利能力
其中一個收購條件是中融信託於2010淨利潤不少於人民幣4億元，不然的話經緯紡織的收購價會相應下調。
假設中融信託2010年全年盈利有4億元人民幣，以經緯紡織持股36%計算，則全年計盈利貢獻有1.44億元，即平均每月有1200萬元。
從第三季度損益表當中的少數股東損益大增至1.297億元，我們其實可以大約計算到第三季度所以的盈利皆源自新收購的中融信託36%股權，而原有的紡織機生產業務只是持平而已。
中融信託的過往幾年的其資產當中有不少是交易性金融資產及可供出售金融資產，而09年盈利來源當中亦有1.45億元盈利來自投資收益及公允價值變動收益，故實在難以推算究竟管理層提及的兩個盈利改善的原因，那個才是主因。
假設中融信託及2011年及2012年的盈利俱能達標，則經緯紡織每年來自中融信託的盈利貢敵已高達1.44億元人民幣，若在加上本身業務每季約1500萬元盈利計算，2011年的整體盈利有望達到2億元人民幣，即相當於每股盈利0.38港元，以現價計算，2011年預期市盈率只得7.6倍左右，屬於偏低水平，自己覺得合理市盈率應該不少於9-10倍市盈率，故初步訂立半年目標價3.5元。
Positive
2010-11 重大技術創新及產業化資金合計3,300萬元人民幣，該項資金是對該公司新型紡織設備研發與試製的研發補助。補貼款目前尚未到帳，到帳後將增加公司收益。
2010 年第三季度淨利潤較去年同期升幅較高，主要原因是：
1. 自2010 年8 月起中融國際信托有限公司已合併入本公司 (36%)8月17日；
第三季只有一半時間計入中融國際信託的盈利貢獻
2. 公司銷售收入較去年同期增長較快，從而使公司業績與去年同期相比大幅增加。
中融國際信託的盈利能力
其中一個收購條件是中融信託於2010淨利潤不少於人民幣4億元，不然的話經緯紡織的收購價會相應下調。
假設中融信託2010年全年盈利有4億元人民幣，以經緯紡織持股36%計算，則全年計盈利貢獻有1.44億元，即平均每月有1200萬元。
從第三季度損益表當中的少數股東損益大增至1.297億元，我們其實可以大約計算到第三季度所以的盈利皆源自新收購的中融信託36%股權，而原有的紡織機生產業務只是持平而已。
中融信託的過往幾年的其資產當中有不少是交易性金融資產及可供出售金融資產，而09年盈利來源當中亦有1.45億元盈利來自投資收益及公允價值變動收益，故實在難以推算究竟管理層提及的兩個盈利改善的原因，那個才是主因。
假設中融信託及2011年及2012年的盈利俱能達標，則經緯紡織每年來自中融信託的盈利貢敵已高達1.44億元人民幣，若在加上本身業務每季約1500萬元盈利計算，2011年的整體盈利有望達到2億元人民幣，即相當於每股盈利0.38港元，以現價計算，2011年預期市盈率只得7.6倍左右，屬於偏低水平，自己覺得合理市盈率應該不少於9-10倍市盈率，故初步訂立半年目標價3.5元。
Positive
2010-11 重大技術創新及產業化資金合計3,300萬元人民幣，該項資金是對該公司新型紡織設備研發與試製的研發補助。補貼款目前尚未到帳，到帳後將增加公司收益。
2011年1月3日 星期一
(BHR.L) Beacon Hill Resources
Asset
1) coal-producing mine in the Tete province of Mozambique.
(largest undeveloped coal region in the world, two mining monoliths, Vale of Brazil and Riversdale of Australia, are firmly positioned in the area.)
2) Tasmania Magnesite two licences in NE, AUS (Arthur River Project) ,
Magnesia is typically processed into calcinated or other forms of magnesia, increasing achieved prices (from $50 per tonne to up to $250/t for CCM or higher for other compounds)
DEC - full funding for both its projects by the placing of £23m of new equity
COAL
Already mining coal (current resource estimate of 33Mt mineable of coal reserve, with saleable estimate of 20Mt.)
2010-05 May - producing 2,000 tons of coal a month. 2ktpm
2011-01 8,000 tons a month
2011 20,000 tons a month this year
2012 200,000
For 2012 detail of coal sales and production type see link
The main transport Sena railway line has recently been expanded and on which the group has an offer of additional capacity from November 2012. Both Beira port and Nacala port are being expanded/refurbished to handle greater capacity/size of ships.
COST
moving from more underground mining to open-pit, which is easier, cheaper and offers a far safer and more agreeable environment for the miners.
Total investment is projected to be some $10m with contractors undertaking the mining.
Figures
Beacon Hill can obtain $100 a ton (£65) for its coal
cost of digging it out of the ground is about $50 a ton.
if prices stay static, the group should deliver turnover of $240 million in a couple of years and profits of $120 million.
Arthur River Project Magnesite
JORC compliant resource of 13.2m measured tonnes and £25.8m tonnes magnesia rated in inferred category.
initial progress towards preparing the statutory Development Proposal and Environmental Management Plan (‘DPEMP’). Several key components are already completed including the flora, fauna and Aboriginal heritage surveys
Begin a drilling programme first quarter 2011 - understanding of the deposit and its geology as well as expanding the current Measured and Inferred resource.
Production by 2012 would be impressive.
High grade at 43.4% with some 13.2m tonnes of measured resource with another 10m of inferred tonnes at a 41.5% grade while a further 15.8m tonnes of inferred resource register a very respectable 39.9%.
Figures
Valuation for the Magnesia opportunity of Aus$69.3m to Aus$83m (c.£36-44m) based on the measured and inferred resource – though that would increase substantially on the announcement of a JV to sell processed product.
Director
Justin Lewis - appointed chairman last year, the company has moved on in leaps and bounds, only in his 30s, probably why it seems he has a hunger for success,
shares at the option price which is 14p
Hub - BoD always seem to rush their option prices when they feel the train is about to leave the station.
Future Plan
COAL - executing a further drilling program, 28 holes completed to date (2010-12), and has identified the Chipanga seam as likely to lead to an increase in reserves estimates
The group will construct an 80t per hour mobile wash plant while simultaneously handling other minor items to put the group on track for full planned production by January 2012.
Infrastructure refurbished/expanded - The local railway line is to be extended to the mine.
Arthur River Project - additional exploration which could significantly increase the extent of this resource. (to potentially over 100Mt tonnes based on earlier exploration).
funding sufficient to bring the mine into full production.
Expect to explore JVs to achieve this next step as the mine approaches full production.
POSITIVE
positive cashflow
Implied Valued per share 23.3p
(does not include the upside from the potential to upgrade resource estimates by drilling activities, or the potential lift to the Manganese operation by the JV to create higher value compounds, or even the income from the exercise of the options/warrants)
Negative
Time? take years to complete the two projects (Tasmania Magnesite and Mozambique Coal).
Share Dilution - to acquired the remaining 49% tete mine. 238m new shares.Half are expected to convert as soon as shareholders give approval with the other half converting one year later. The implied valuation for BHRM is some $200m. The convertibles carry a 15% interest rate.
1) coal-producing mine in the Tete province of Mozambique.
(largest undeveloped coal region in the world, two mining monoliths, Vale of Brazil and Riversdale of Australia, are firmly positioned in the area.)
2) Tasmania Magnesite two licences in NE, AUS (Arthur River Project) ,
Magnesia is typically processed into calcinated or other forms of magnesia, increasing achieved prices (from $50 per tonne to up to $250/t for CCM or higher for other compounds)
DEC - full funding for both its projects by the placing of £23m of new equity
COAL
Already mining coal (current resource estimate of 33Mt mineable of coal reserve, with saleable estimate of 20Mt.)
2010-05 May - producing 2,000 tons of coal a month. 2ktpm
2011-01 8,000 tons a month
2011 20,000 tons a month this year
2012 200,000
For 2012 detail of coal sales and production type see link
30% of which is expected to be coking coal for the export market.
Already granted environmental approval for an opencast mine of some 200kt -400kt per month
COST
moving from more underground mining to open-pit, which is easier, cheaper and offers a far safer and more agreeable environment for the miners.
Total investment is projected to be some $10m with contractors undertaking the mining.
Figures
Beacon Hill can obtain $100 a ton (£65) for its coal
cost of digging it out of the ground is about $50 a ton.
if prices stay static, the group should deliver turnover of $240 million in a couple of years and profits of $120 million.
Arthur River Project Magnesite
JORC compliant resource of 13.2m measured tonnes and £25.8m tonnes magnesia rated in inferred category.
initial progress towards preparing the statutory Development Proposal and Environmental Management Plan (‘DPEMP’). Several key components are already completed including the flora, fauna and Aboriginal heritage surveys
Begin a drilling programme first quarter 2011 - understanding of the deposit and its geology as well as expanding the current Measured and Inferred resource.
Production by 2012 would be impressive.
High grade at 43.4% with some 13.2m tonnes of measured resource with another 10m of inferred tonnes at a 41.5% grade while a further 15.8m tonnes of inferred resource register a very respectable 39.9%.
Figures
Valuation for the Magnesia opportunity of Aus$69.3m to Aus$83m (c.£36-44m) based on the measured and inferred resource – though that would increase substantially on the announcement of a JV to sell processed product.
Director
Justin Lewis - appointed chairman last year, the company has moved on in leaps and bounds, only in his 30s, probably why it seems he has a hunger for success,
shares at the option price which is 14p
Hub - BoD always seem to rush their option prices when they feel the train is about to leave the station.
Future Plan
COAL - executing a further drilling program, 28 holes completed to date (2010-12), and has identified the Chipanga seam as likely to lead to an increase in reserves estimates
The group will construct an 80t per hour mobile wash plant while simultaneously handling other minor items to put the group on track for full planned production by January 2012.
Infrastructure refurbished/expanded - The local railway line is to be extended to the mine.
Arthur River Project - additional exploration which could significantly increase the extent of this resource. (to potentially over 100Mt tonnes based on earlier exploration).
funding sufficient to bring the mine into full production.
Expect to explore JVs to achieve this next step as the mine approaches full production.
POSITIVE
positive cashflow
Implied Valued per share 23.3p
(does not include the upside from the potential to upgrade resource estimates by drilling activities, or the potential lift to the Manganese operation by the JV to create higher value compounds, or even the income from the exercise of the options/warrants)
Negative
Time? take years to complete the two projects (Tasmania Magnesite and Mozambique Coal).
Share Dilution - to acquired the remaining 49% tete mine. 238m new shares.Half are expected to convert as soon as shareholders give approval with the other half converting one year later. The implied valuation for BHRM is some $200m. The convertibles carry a 15% interest rate.
Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA)
onshore exploration, development and production in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico
Current market capitalisation of £78m ($124m) with no debt and current cash of approx. $33m
November 2010, Caza raised £18.9 mln through a placing at 42p per share.
Asset
Arran & Tiree prospects - multi-segment prospect, with prospective reservoirs supported by AVO data within a proven play fairway.
OB Ranch - 43.28% working interest and an approximate 32.03% net revenue interest in the well
Windham development
Production overview (3Q10 average 845Mcfge/day)
Matthys-McMillan #2 W.I. 19.61%
146bopd and
480Mcfg/day
OB Ranch #1
2.48 million cubic feet of natural gas per day,
400 barrels of oil per day
190 barrels of water per day
Potential Issues
Dec 8th, the Company - Marian Baker #1 well on Arran Prospect to a total depth of approximately 16,000 feet beginning (Jan Spurred). Official COS is 35%.
The Marian Baker #1 well is expected to encounter multiple, potential, hydrocarbon bearing reservoir sections.
For Arran, Australian drilling partners who have carried out an independent assesment and released notes say 650 BCF or higher.There's a production well 350m away from the target.
Upcoming high impact drilling campaign
• Arran – targeting 177Bcf & 3.0MMbbl Caza 25% W.I. 35.94% after casing point;NRI c.26.24%
• Tiree – targeting 76Bcf & 1.4MMbbl Caza 25% W.I.32.81% aftercasing point; NRI c.23.95%
• Lewis – targeting 42Bcf & 0.8MMbbl Caza 50% W.I.
On a 9/64th choke at 6,100 pounds per square inch flowing tubing pressure and still has approximately 750 barrels of fracture fluid to recover. The production rates are being closely monitored, and Caza will provide an update once the rates and flowing tubing pressure have stabilised.
2011 looks an active year for Caza
Upcoming Activities
All eyes on the Arran prospect in Q1. Success at Arran would de-risk Tiree which is significant.
Windham Wolfberry prospect farmed out to Devon Energy
– Complete Caza 158 # 1 frac stimulation
– Commence Caza 162 #1 frac stimulation
– Drill Bongo offset well Caza 65% W.I.
– Commence Bongo development drilling
• Q2 2011
– Drill Tiree prospect
• Other 2011 Activities
– Drill Lewis prospect
– Farm out of Las Animas prospect Caza 25%* W.I.
– Further Windham wells anticipated
Our Target price for 2011 is 120p. This could be revised upwards based upon future discoveries.
NAV based on production figures in the last Bongo RNS to add 12.8p per share to the NAV.
NAV prior to windham, bongo and placing to fund future prospects was 45p ish so we're sitting below old NAV before these were added in.
No broker notes have come out yet from CENKOS, so we're waiting for a more official NAV from them.
No exact figures on production costs etc, but $50 per barrel for oil and $2.75 per mcf of gas after tax etc are as good as I've been able to get.
Current market capitalisation of £78m ($124m) with no debt and current cash of approx. $33m
November 2010, Caza raised £18.9 mln through a placing at 42p per share.
Asset
Arran & Tiree prospects - multi-segment prospect, with prospective reservoirs supported by AVO data within a proven play fairway.
OB Ranch - 43.28% working interest and an approximate 32.03% net revenue interest in the well
Windham development
Production overview (3Q10 average 845Mcfge/day)
Matthys-McMillan #2 W.I. 19.61%
146bopd and
480Mcfg/day
OB Ranch #1
2.48 million cubic feet of natural gas per day,
400 barrels of oil per day
190 barrels of water per day
Potential Issues
Dec 8th, the Company - Marian Baker #1 well on Arran Prospect to a total depth of approximately 16,000 feet beginning (Jan Spurred). Official COS is 35%.
The Marian Baker #1 well is expected to encounter multiple, potential, hydrocarbon bearing reservoir sections.
For Arran, Australian drilling partners who have carried out an independent assesment and released notes say 650 BCF or higher.There's a production well 350m away from the target.
Upcoming high impact drilling campaign
• Arran – targeting 177Bcf & 3.0MMbbl Caza 25% W.I. 35.94% after casing point;NRI c.26.24%
• Tiree – targeting 76Bcf & 1.4MMbbl Caza 25% W.I.32.81% aftercasing point; NRI c.23.95%
• Lewis – targeting 42Bcf & 0.8MMbbl Caza 50% W.I.
On a 9/64th choke at 6,100 pounds per square inch flowing tubing pressure and still has approximately 750 barrels of fracture fluid to recover. The production rates are being closely monitored, and Caza will provide an update once the rates and flowing tubing pressure have stabilised.
2011 looks an active year for Caza
Upcoming Activities
All eyes on the Arran prospect in Q1. Success at Arran would de-risk Tiree which is significant.
Windham Wolfberry prospect farmed out to Devon Energy
– Complete Caza 158 # 1 frac stimulation
– Commence Caza 162 #1 frac stimulation
– Drill Bongo offset well Caza 65% W.I.
– Commence Bongo development drilling
• Q2 2011
– Drill Tiree prospect
• Other 2011 Activities
– Drill Lewis prospect
– Farm out of Las Animas prospect Caza 25%* W.I.
– Further Windham wells anticipated
Our Target price for 2011 is 120p. This could be revised upwards based upon future discoveries.
NAV based on production figures in the last Bongo RNS to add 12.8p per share to the NAV.
NAV prior to windham, bongo and placing to fund future prospects was 45p ish so we're sitting below old NAV before these were added in.
No broker notes have come out yet from CENKOS, so we're waiting for a more official NAV from them.
No exact figures on production costs etc, but $50 per barrel for oil and $2.75 per mcf of gas after tax etc are as good as I've been able to get.
A major hurdle cleared, more obstacles to come - making sense of the EMED story
Asset
EMED’s flagship asset is the Rio Tinto mine - also known as Proyecto Rio Tinto (PRT) redevelopment - in the Andalucia region of Spain.
Option from Iberian Portugal over the exploration permit covering the Regua tungsten deposit
Biely Vrch porphyry gold project in Slovakia
20 percent shareholding in KEFI Minerals LON (LON:KEFI) - whose interests are centred on Turkey and Saudi Arabia – and the sum of the parts would appear to be far in excess of today's market cap of just £38 million. It's easy to see why, in common with many other undervalued and unloved AIM juniors, EMED are beating a path to Toronto.
Tungsten (POR) has been classified as a critical raw material by the European Commission, due to the tightness of global supply and the Iberian Peninsula has historically been one of the major sources of tungsten supply outside of China.
Future Dec Target
PRT
A significant project. EMED foresees a 9 million tonne per year mining operation over a 14 year minelife that will produce 37,000 tonnes of copper concentrate each year.
One forecast sees the PRT providing annual earnings (EBITDA) of US$70 million, giving net present value (NPV) of £414 million (or 63p per share) and an internal rate of return of 128 percent.- high by any standards
EMED now owns 100 percent of the mining rights over the Rio Tinto mine area.
EMED now expects the Junta to begin a formal review process to determine whether it should receive the various approvals - based on EMED’s legal, technical and economic capacity to operate the Rio Tinto project.
POR
JORC compliant (2008) 1.26 million tonnes grading 0.39 percent tungsten trioxide (WO3) in the indicated category, 2.16 million tonnes grading 0.36 percent WO3 inferred.
The option acquisition price is 2.5 million EMED Mining shares, and a commitment to spend €250,000 on the project before the option expiry date of 31 December 2011. If the option is exercised, EMED Mining would pay a further €750,000 to Iberian Portugal either as cash or in EMED Mining shares as well as committing to spend €1,500,000 on the project within three years. The vendor would retain a Net Smelter Royalty of 3 to 4 percent, dependent upon the product selling price. As part of due diligence over the next 12 months, EMED will be examining the exploration potential at Regua, auditing the mineral resource and undertaking a scoping study, which will include the scope for permitting. EMED Mining's preliminary assessment of Regua indicates a potentially valuable tungsten project with considerable potential to add additional resources through further exploration, provided that an access issue to part of the property can be resolved.
Biely Vrch porphyry gold project in Slovakia
Currently pursuing planning and permitting for this 1 million ounce deposit, and a
scoping study confirmed the attractive economics of developing a mine. The study envisages a heap leach mining operation to yield about 60,000 ounces of gold per year over a ten-year minelife (recoveries would vary from 85-90 percent using typical CIL processing techniques), and at a capital cost of US$64 million and estimated operating costs at US$529/oz, producing 60,000 oz/y for 10 years at gold prices above US$1,000/oz, the outcome looks highly favourable.
Kefi Minerals Plc (LON:KEFI) - awaiting important news from Saudi Arabia. submitted a total of 21 Exploration Licence Applications [ELAs] following Field Reconnaissance over some years. It is understood that the first few of these exploration licences is expected soon [But to be honest - they have been "expected" for the last three or four month!]. All the ELAs are in areas of historic gold mining and both EMED and KEFI sound quite excited about the possibilities.
Positive
Received the necessary signatures on a statement of non-opposition from the liquidators of the Rio Tinto copper mine’s previous owners. now formally submitted the statement to Andalucia’s regional government – Junta de Andalucia. It now hopes to reach the next big permitting milestone, referred to as ‘administrative standing’,
foresees the next big stage (“Administrative Standing”) being granted by the middle of next year, along with the necessary Mining Permit, and anticipate a 6 month build up to commissioning.
Significant potential to extend the 14-year mine life by conversion of known mineral resources to reserves, and additional exploration which could increase the mineralisation to more than 300 million tonnes of resource
Capex to reach production is around US$120 million and by comparison with peer groups, EMED have a low capex intensity cost of just US$2,703 per annual tonne of copper production, almost half the figure achieved by their nearest peer group member, Pan Australian, who are developing in Thailand and Laos with a capital intensity figure of US$4,762 per tonne.
Negative
Land ownership - EMED does not own all the land to fully restart the mining operation. Various parts subject to liens - a passive right to retain but not sell property assets against an outstanding debt – as a result of Minas de Riotinto’s (previous owner) liquidation.
According to EMED, the only lien that is critical to the re-start of the project is currently held by the Department of Social Security, In May it was agreed that the Department of Social Security would not exercise their lien and EMED would repay the total debt owed to the department, over a five-year period.
Certain parcels of land that are required for the mine’s full operation, including tailings disposal, are held by other parties. EMED said that negotiations are under way but it may need to use a compulsory acquisition.the compulsory purchases could take less than 12 months, but it put the worst-case scenario at up to two years.
Future Target
Once this is Admin License granted, EMED will then finalise authorisations for other associated activities - such as tailings storage, equipment usage, blasting etc.
Finally the Junta will then verify that EMED has the necessary financing and insurances in place, before the mine finally resumes operation.
Peter Rose, mining analyst at Fox-Davies, believe that EMED remain on schedule to restart the Rio Tinto copper mine in late 2011,” Rose said in a note to clients.The analyst rates EMED as a ‘buy’, with a 53 pence per share target (current price 10.1p).
EMED’s flagship asset is the Rio Tinto mine - also known as Proyecto Rio Tinto (PRT) redevelopment - in the Andalucia region of Spain.
Option from Iberian Portugal over the exploration permit covering the Regua tungsten deposit
Biely Vrch porphyry gold project in Slovakia
20 percent shareholding in KEFI Minerals LON (LON:KEFI) - whose interests are centred on Turkey and Saudi Arabia – and the sum of the parts would appear to be far in excess of today's market cap of just £38 million. It's easy to see why, in common with many other undervalued and unloved AIM juniors, EMED are beating a path to Toronto.
Tungsten (POR) has been classified as a critical raw material by the European Commission, due to the tightness of global supply and the Iberian Peninsula has historically been one of the major sources of tungsten supply outside of China.
Future Dec Target
PRT
A significant project. EMED foresees a 9 million tonne per year mining operation over a 14 year minelife that will produce 37,000 tonnes of copper concentrate each year.
One forecast sees the PRT providing annual earnings (EBITDA) of US$70 million, giving net present value (NPV) of £414 million (or 63p per share) and an internal rate of return of 128 percent.- high by any standards
EMED now owns 100 percent of the mining rights over the Rio Tinto mine area.
EMED now expects the Junta to begin a formal review process to determine whether it should receive the various approvals - based on EMED’s legal, technical and economic capacity to operate the Rio Tinto project.
POR
JORC compliant (2008) 1.26 million tonnes grading 0.39 percent tungsten trioxide (WO3) in the indicated category, 2.16 million tonnes grading 0.36 percent WO3 inferred.
The option acquisition price is 2.5 million EMED Mining shares, and a commitment to spend €250,000 on the project before the option expiry date of 31 December 2011. If the option is exercised, EMED Mining would pay a further €750,000 to Iberian Portugal either as cash or in EMED Mining shares as well as committing to spend €1,500,000 on the project within three years. The vendor would retain a Net Smelter Royalty of 3 to 4 percent, dependent upon the product selling price. As part of due diligence over the next 12 months, EMED will be examining the exploration potential at Regua, auditing the mineral resource and undertaking a scoping study, which will include the scope for permitting. EMED Mining's preliminary assessment of Regua indicates a potentially valuable tungsten project with considerable potential to add additional resources through further exploration, provided that an access issue to part of the property can be resolved.
Biely Vrch porphyry gold project in Slovakia
Currently pursuing planning and permitting for this 1 million ounce deposit, and a
scoping study confirmed the attractive economics of developing a mine. The study envisages a heap leach mining operation to yield about 60,000 ounces of gold per year over a ten-year minelife (recoveries would vary from 85-90 percent using typical CIL processing techniques), and at a capital cost of US$64 million and estimated operating costs at US$529/oz, producing 60,000 oz/y for 10 years at gold prices above US$1,000/oz, the outcome looks highly favourable.
Kefi Minerals Plc (LON:KEFI) - awaiting important news from Saudi Arabia. submitted a total of 21 Exploration Licence Applications [ELAs] following Field Reconnaissance over some years. It is understood that the first few of these exploration licences is expected soon [But to be honest - they have been "expected" for the last three or four month!]. All the ELAs are in areas of historic gold mining and both EMED and KEFI sound quite excited about the possibilities.
Positive
Received the necessary signatures on a statement of non-opposition from the liquidators of the Rio Tinto copper mine’s previous owners. now formally submitted the statement to Andalucia’s regional government – Junta de Andalucia. It now hopes to reach the next big permitting milestone, referred to as ‘administrative standing’,
foresees the next big stage (“Administrative Standing”) being granted by the middle of next year, along with the necessary Mining Permit, and anticipate a 6 month build up to commissioning.
Significant potential to extend the 14-year mine life by conversion of known mineral resources to reserves, and additional exploration which could increase the mineralisation to more than 300 million tonnes of resource
Capex to reach production is around US$120 million and by comparison with peer groups, EMED have a low capex intensity cost of just US$2,703 per annual tonne of copper production, almost half the figure achieved by their nearest peer group member, Pan Australian, who are developing in Thailand and Laos with a capital intensity figure of US$4,762 per tonne.
Negative
Land ownership - EMED does not own all the land to fully restart the mining operation. Various parts subject to liens - a passive right to retain but not sell property assets against an outstanding debt – as a result of Minas de Riotinto’s (previous owner) liquidation.
According to EMED, the only lien that is critical to the re-start of the project is currently held by the Department of Social Security, In May it was agreed that the Department of Social Security would not exercise their lien and EMED would repay the total debt owed to the department, over a five-year period.
Certain parcels of land that are required for the mine’s full operation, including tailings disposal, are held by other parties. EMED said that negotiations are under way but it may need to use a compulsory acquisition.the compulsory purchases could take less than 12 months, but it put the worst-case scenario at up to two years.
Future Target
Once this is Admin License granted, EMED will then finalise authorisations for other associated activities - such as tailings storage, equipment usage, blasting etc.
Finally the Junta will then verify that EMED has the necessary financing and insurances in place, before the mine finally resumes operation.
Peter Rose, mining analyst at Fox-Davies, believe that EMED remain on schedule to restart the Rio Tinto copper mine in late 2011,” Rose said in a note to clients.The analyst rates EMED as a ‘buy’, with a 53 pence per share target (current price 10.1p).
Atlantic Coal
Stockton’s- 4 million tons of raw coal, or ‘run-of-mine’ coal (ROM), which, after the washing process equates to approximately 2 million tons of washed anthracite.
The mine presently produces around 200,000 tons of anthracite a year. (Stockton a mine life of about 10 years from now, at 400,000 t)
Atlantic’s product is selling at between US$95 and US$145 a tonne and costs around US$85 to mine
On the market anthracite per tonne selling price has been between $115 for industry up to $150 for home use. (09-04) Atlantic has historically sold around 40% of its output to steel makers, 30% to other industry and 30% for home heating, the highest-margin of the three but only for the colder months from November to March.
Positive
hydraulic excavator - significantly increase production and reduce the cost base,get to 400,000 tons per year.’ last piece of the colliery’s $10 million redevelopment and could be assembled in the very near future.
cash flow positive from operations
Solely based on current assets & liabilities the short term sp should be anywhere between 1.3 and 1.8p
Contract
Renegotiated with the Pagnottis to stop selling the 100,000 tons of ROM coal a year at a fixed price, and instead effectively pay a deferred consideration. This, says Atlantic, will save it $10m-plus over the mine's life.
deal with coal broker Xcoal, ‘taking 5,000 initially and have agreed to take up to 150,000 tons of clean coal or, if production is great they can take 50% - so if we were to produce 400,000 tons they could take 200,000 of it. We see this as a strategic partnership rather than just a one-off contract.’
Major shareholder recently bought the loan lote, indicated they will not sale as cheap.
FLOODS ravaging Queensland are expected to drive global coking coal prices more than 20 per cent higher for the second quarter.
Analysts expect production to be around 100,000 clean tons this year (2010), rising to 200,000 in 2011.
The market for anthracite in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has tightened considerably following the closure of a neighbouring mine, which has actually left Atlantic struggling to meet demand.
completing the relocation of the Norfolk Southern Railway, (nOV 2010), to provide access to coal reserves under the tracks that traverse the southern pit area. This will contribute positively to production.
Negative
£1 million convertible loan agreement for a further year, (end Dec 2011) which gives the company’s management breathing space to consider its options. coupon of 13.75 percent it could prove expensive to ponder the alternatives too long.
Future target
Fox-Davies analyst predicts Atlantic’s turnover this year (2010) will be US$11.8 million, rising to US$21 million in 2011, delivering EBITDA of US$10.7 million.
next 12 months to add 30-40m tons, which will give us a mine life of around 30-40 years,’ plans to acquire sites on a royalty basis, and so not risk large amounts of cash up front. Atlantic thinks it will be able to pay a royalty to each mine’s owners of around $4 a ton and so still maintain a significant profit.
iNTERMIN: Although the six monthly figures show a distinct improvement, it is important to recognise that the true benefits of all the restructuring and development initiatives have not fully impacted this current reporting period.
As we continue to move into the coal basin we expect raw coal production to increase dramatically.
The mine presently produces around 200,000 tons of anthracite a year. (Stockton a mine life of about 10 years from now, at 400,000 t)
Atlantic’s product is selling at between US$95 and US$145 a tonne and costs around US$85 to mine
On the market anthracite per tonne selling price has been between $115 for industry up to $150 for home use. (09-04) Atlantic has historically sold around 40% of its output to steel makers, 30% to other industry and 30% for home heating, the highest-margin of the three but only for the colder months from November to March.
Positive
hydraulic excavator - significantly increase production and reduce the cost base,get to 400,000 tons per year.’ last piece of the colliery’s $10 million redevelopment and could be assembled in the very near future.
cash flow positive from operations
Solely based on current assets & liabilities the short term sp should be anywhere between 1.3 and 1.8p
Contract
Renegotiated with the Pagnottis to stop selling the 100,000 tons of ROM coal a year at a fixed price, and instead effectively pay a deferred consideration. This, says Atlantic, will save it $10m-plus over the mine's life.
deal with coal broker Xcoal, ‘taking 5,000 initially and have agreed to take up to 150,000 tons of clean coal or, if production is great they can take 50% - so if we were to produce 400,000 tons they could take 200,000 of it. We see this as a strategic partnership rather than just a one-off contract.’
Major shareholder recently bought the loan lote, indicated they will not sale as cheap.
FLOODS ravaging Queensland are expected to drive global coking coal prices more than 20 per cent higher for the second quarter.
Analysts expect production to be around 100,000 clean tons this year (2010), rising to 200,000 in 2011.
The market for anthracite in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, has tightened considerably following the closure of a neighbouring mine, which has actually left Atlantic struggling to meet demand.
completing the relocation of the Norfolk Southern Railway, (nOV 2010), to provide access to coal reserves under the tracks that traverse the southern pit area. This will contribute positively to production.
Negative
£1 million convertible loan agreement for a further year, (end Dec 2011) which gives the company’s management breathing space to consider its options. coupon of 13.75 percent it could prove expensive to ponder the alternatives too long.
Future target
Fox-Davies analyst predicts Atlantic’s turnover this year (2010) will be US$11.8 million, rising to US$21 million in 2011, delivering EBITDA of US$10.7 million.
next 12 months to add 30-40m tons, which will give us a mine life of around 30-40 years,’ plans to acquire sites on a royalty basis, and so not risk large amounts of cash up front. Atlantic thinks it will be able to pay a royalty to each mine’s owners of around $4 a ton and so still maintain a significant profit.
iNTERMIN: Although the six monthly figures show a distinct improvement, it is important to recognise that the true benefits of all the restructuring and development initiatives have not fully impacted this current reporting period.
As we continue to move into the coal basin we expect raw coal production to increase dramatically.
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