In the first article, last week, I covered general aspects relating to investment in the global agricultural sector and indicated that future articles would focus in more detail on the various options available to private investors based in the UK.
These options range from broadly based collective funds at one end of the spectrum to direct investment in farms at the other.
Collective funds include closed ended investment trusts, open ended unitised trusts and a fast expanding list of exchange traded funds that are low cost passively managed funds whose underlying portfolios are closely linked to specific indices. I shall now start off this series of specific profiles with an outline of the opportunities for investment exposure to agriculture and soft commodities using exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Advantages and disadvantages of using the ETF route
Over the past decade, ETFs have become extremely popular with a large number of professional and private investors who wish to gain exposure to particular market sectors through clearly defined low cost funds that are openly traded on leading stock exchanges, such as the London Stock Exchange.
Costs are low because the funds are passively managed with the objective of achieving as close a correlation with the chosen underlying index as possible.
In fact, reduced cost is one of the major advantages claimed by ETF managers. They use the term Total Expense Ratio (TER) to differentiate their products from the charges levied by unit and mutual fund providers. Typically, ETF managers will charge no more than 0.5% per year for equity based ETFs and less than 0.25% for ETF bond funds compared to average annual charges of more than 1.5% and 1% for equity and bond mutual funds.
Unlike retail based unitised funds that operate on a regime of daily fixed pricing, usually with a significant spread of around 5% between bid and offer, the prices of ETFs are determined live by the market.
Apart from the clear cost advantage of this medium, the basic structure of the ETF is designed to enable investors to diversify portfolio risk by choosing from within a massive range of investment themes. There are reported to be currently over 1,600 ETFs traded on the LSE market.
The main disadvantage of the ETF as a medium for investment is of course the basic fact that the funds are all designed to mirror the chosen underlying index so by definition outperformance is impossible and in reality the most that can be expected is marginal under performance after deduction of the manager's fees although these are admittedly very low. Indeed, the marketing charts supplied by most ETF managers make a point of illustrating how closely their funds relate to their benchmark index.
A further disadvantage is that most ETFs do not pay out any regular income in the form of dividends but roll up net income in the same way that the capital versions of mutual funds do.
Thus, in short, ETFs are an easily traded low cost way of diversifying portfolios and focusing on specific investment themes but the product range is not designed to achieve superior individual returns.
Using exchange traded funds to target the agriculture sector
Over the past decade the availability of ETFs has risen in both number and breadth of cover as the main providers such as BlackRock iShares, Invesco PowerShares, Deutsche Bank DB Xtrackers, and ETF Securities have launched an ever increasing number of specialist index tracking funds.
Although the main focus of most of the ETFs has been on financial and global indices and the hard commodities, there are a few specialist funds that cover the agriculture and soft commodities sectors. In addition to generalised funds that replicate the broad indices, there are also a number of highly focused commodity funds that target specific commodities such as wheat, soya, sugar and coffee and these are often further sub-divided into spot, future and leveraged versions.
As success with specific single commodity funds necessitates that investors possess a detailed understanding of the relevant underlying markets and are able to follow closely the forces influencing them, I shall exclude analysis of them at this stage but rather focus on the opportunities using ETFs covering broad agriculture and agri business.
The db X-trackers DBLCI (Liquid Commodity Index) Optimum Yield Balanced ETF
Code: XDBD.L Recent price: $33.3 TER: 0.55%
I shall not dwell on this broad spectrum ETF as it covers a wide range of commodities apart from the traditional "softs".
As at the end of July, gold accounted for 15% of the fund total with aluminium, copper, zinc and silver making up a further 23% and oil and gas some 26%. Nonetheless, the main globally traded crops of wheat, maize, soyabeans and sugar accounted for a meaningful 28% of the total funds.
Since launch in July 2007 this broad based commodity fund had, by 30th July 2010, appreciated by 177%. According to Deutsche Bank records the fund recorded a gain of 6.4% in the year to end July 2010, considerably less than the 14% advance of the FTSE 100 equity index over the same period
However, in calendar 2009 the fund returned 27% against a 21% gain in the main All Share index.
The ETF Securities Broad Agriculture Fund and the Agri Business Funds
ETF Securities Agriculture Fund
Code: AGAP.L (GBP) Recent Price: 429p TER:0.65%
Code: AiGA.L (US$) Recent Price: $6.63 TER:0.49%
The ETF Securities managers have created a large number of specialised funds related to soft commodities that focus on single crops such as wheat, soya, coffee, cocoa and sugar and then sub-divided these into separate entities covering future, short and leveraged positions. Thus any investor who believes that the current high price of wheat is overdone might wish to choose the short wheat fund but still take a position in forward wheat if believing that future prices are likely to harden.
However, an initial foray into the wider soft commodities market will probably be better served through a broader fund such as the ETF Securities Agriculture Fund.
Strictly speaking this is really a commodities based vehicle that is designed to track the DJ-UBS Agriculture Sub-index. The underlying assets are effectively futures contracts on coffee, corn, cotton, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and wheat. It reflects the return of the movements in futures prices of each commodity, quoted in US dollars.
This fund recently reported that 50% of total value was represented by soyabeans (26%) and maize ( 24%) with wheat (15%) and cotton, sugar, coffee and soyabean oil each varying between 7% and 10%. The overall product weighting is therefore very closely allied to the US agricultural sector. This is not necessarily a disadvantage but mirrors the global importance of the United States as a key farming nation and one of the largest exporters of agricultural commodities.
It is probably worth noting that in recent years the price performance of soft commodities has tended to do better during periods of economic difficulty exhibiting a negative correlation to global equity indices and providing an attractive option for investors seeking portfolio diversification as illustrated in the chart supplied by ETF Securities.
Source: ETF Securities
ETF Securities Agri Business Fund
Code: AGRP (GBP) Recent Price: 2,760p TER:0.65%
Code: AGRI (USD) Recent Price: $42.6 TER:0.65%
This fund is designed to follow the S-Net ITG Global Agriculture Index that is built to mirror the share price performance of the largest listed companies that are closely linked to global agriculture. The agricultural sub sectors covered include: a) seeds, chemicals and fertilizers, b) equipment and irrigation, c) agricultural commodities and d) livestock production.
As there are virtually no really large global players operating directly in the production end of farming, the Agri Business Fund is principally formed from stakes in those businesses serving the international farm community rather than actually producing crops and other farm products.
However, the portfolio does include a number of well established agriculturally based traders such as Singapore-based Wilmar International and US-based Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland, the latter two being huge operators in trading grains and other key soft commodities.
In fact, manufacturers and suppliers of agricultural chemicals and fertilisers comprised 61% of the underlying index as at end June 2010 with equipment and construction companies contributing a further 10% of the basic index
Because of this fund's close relationship to large cap listed businesses it is hardly surprising that its performance has been more closely correlated with broad movements in the stock market than the commodity indices and so is effectively a less useful defensive play in times of financial market weakness.
However, as a longer term play related to the ultimate recovery in agricultural sector terms of trade this fund could be worth following as it has significantly outperformed the leading US market indices over the past five years.
Invesco PowerShares Global Agriculture Portfolio ETF
Code: PAGG.L Recent price: $25.6 TER: 0.75%
This fund is very similar in composition to the ETF Agri Business fund as it is based on the NASDAQ OMX Global Agriculture index and largely covers the business sectors of the agricultural supply industry.
Major holdings in Wilmar International, Syngenta, Monsanto, Potash Corp, Mosaic and Archer Daniels Midland account for over 42% of the total portfolio compared to 48% for the ETF fund. According to the managers' most recent factsheet the fund's underlying investment portfolio is more widely spread geographically than the ETF Securities Agri Business Fund but for this minor advantage there is also a marginally higher management charge of 0.75%.
Conclusion
Bulls of the underlying agricultural scene promote the importance of key drivers forcing up soft commodity prices in the longer term.
These include gradually reducing availability of productive arable land, growing world population, rising incomes in the huge emerging BRIC nations leading to diets featuring a higher proportion of meat replacing direct consumption of grains and also the diversion of annual crop production from feedstuffs to biofuels. Add in the uncertain effects of climatic disasters such as floods and droughts and the equation would appear clearcut.
However, as mentioned in the first article in this series, there is still massive potential for further improvements in technology. It is always possible that there will be a second stage to the highly successful green revolution of the 1970s and 80s with genetic modification capable of generating substantial improvements in yields while also reducing demand for fertilizers and improving disease resistance.
On balance, I believe that technological advances will have a struggle to generate enough additional supply to meet the anticipated rise in effective global demand for soft commodities and thus I still expect the terms of trade to improve in agriculture's favour over the coming years. In this scenario I can see ETF funds playing a useful part in well balanced growth portfolios.
2010年9月17日 星期五
London-listed exposure to the agricultural sector
John Mulligan
16.09.10 10:51
The previous articles in this series highlighting investment opportunities in the agricultural and soft commodity sector have covered the general background to global supply and demand and more specifically the role of exchange traded funds.
I thought that I would turn now to some of the specific direct equity investment options that exist in this sector.
As domestic agriculture now plays a relatively small role in the UK economy the investment options in direct agricultural production have, for many years, focused on food production companies on the one hand and traditional plantation crop producers on the other.
Given the historical ties between Britain and its colonies the importance of tropical plantation agriculture is perfectly understandable. This general approach contrasts strongly with the US scene where agriculture plays a much larger role in the whole economy.
For British investors direct equity investment in soft commodities and farming, using the medium of London-listed companies, really comes down to the major food production groups such as Unilever (ULVR), Tate & Lyle (TATE), the dairying companies and the smaller producers such as Cranswick (CWK) and Glanbia (GLB) on the one hand and the overseas plantation companies on the other.
Apart from these there are a few listed companies that are directly or indirectly involved in producing a range of agricultural commodities.
In this article I shall touch briefly on some of the major food production companies listed on the LSE main market and follow in the next one with a focus on plantation companies and other overseas producers.
Analysis of the longer-term sales and profits for most agricultural sector producers throws up a generally lacklustre record with occasional bursts of prosperity achieved when positive environmental factors happen to coincide with spikes in commodity prices.
Of course, these occurrences are relatively rare as good weather conditions usually lead to production gluts and lower prices.
However, the increasing incidence of extreme climatic conditions in specific regions can, from time to time, deliver attractive short-term financial benefits to producers operating in those parts of the globe unaffected by droughts, floods and other climatic disasters.
The large London-listed global food producers
Unilever
Code: ULVR.L
Recent Price: 1743p
Div yield: 3.6% A Actual 2009 PER: 14.3
Estimated PER: 13
As global food producers go, Unilever is up there with the big ones with a market cap of £22.5 billion, annual sales of £35 billion and 2009 pre-tax profits of £4.3 billion. Their food products include well known brands such as Lipton (tea), Hellmans (mayonnaise), Knorr (soups) and Flora (margarine).
Although direct crop production is a relatively small component of the group's overall business the Unilever group is nevertheless closely linked to farming practices through its involvement with tea producers and oil palm plantations and the group is also a founder member of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil.
Investment in Unilever is generally considered to be a sound long-term constituent of balanced equity portfolios as its concentration on the processing, marketing and distribution aspects of the food industry provides some protection against the volatility and lower margins inherent in the production end of the food chain.
However, in no way can it be considered other than as a staid large global producer of foodstuffs and toiletries that is never likely to outperform smaller focused businesses with strong niche market positions.
Tate & Lyle
Code: TATE.L
Recent Price: 440p
Div Yield: 5.2%
Actual PER: 7.1
Estimated PER: 10.9
Traditionally a large scale producer of sugar and sugar by-products this world famous group is now a developer and processor of corn and sugar products for a wide range of wholesale and retail customers.
At the current price level the shares offer a relatively safe dividend yield even though the analysts covering the shares are forecasting little growth in earnings and dividends over the next couple of years.
Smaller food producers
Cranswick
Code: CWK.L
Recent Price: 850p
Div Yield: 2.7%
Actual PER: 12.3
Estimated PER: 11.6
Cranswick is included in this list because it started life in 1988 as a famer-owned pig production company and, until 2007, owned most of the farms on which the pigs used for their pork and sausage products were raised.
Cranswick is now a highly successful food production company with processing factories close to their suppliers' pig farms in Yorkshire and Norfolk. The sale of the company's farm units some three years ago demonstrates the higher margins achievable in the processing and manufacture of their final products. These include pork, sausages and general charcuterie as well as higher value sandwiches and convenience foods.
Although Cranswick is no longer a direct farm production company it remains an interesting investment as it has an enviable record of steady uninterrupted growth in sales, profits, earnings and dividends over more than five years. It is not particularly cheap in comparison with other food manufacturers but would make a solid component of any long-term equity portfolio.
The fact that Cranswick, as a business started by farmers, decided to dispose of the farming side of its activities three years ago demonstrates the prevalent corporate view that investment in agricultural production usually delivers poor returns.
The relatively low return on total capital invested in the actual process of farm production, including the value of the land, in densely populated countries like the UK is due in part to the very high value attaching to British farmland. This results mainly from non-agricultural demand for land for building and leisure uses.
For this reason, companies like Cranswick have moved capital away from land ownership into the higher yielding processing or retailing side of operations.
Glanbia
Code: GLB.L
Recent Price: EUR3.60
Div Yield: 2%
Actual PER: 9.2
Estimated PER: 8.9
Glanbia is an Irish domiciled cheese processor specialising in Mozzarella cheeses and has operating plants in the UK, the USA and Nigeria as well as in Northern Ireland.
Although closely associated with the dairy industry their connection to producers is effectively that of product purchasers rather than producers.
The UK dairy companies
Robert Wiseman Dairies
Code: RWD.L
Recent Price: 485p
Div Yield: 3.7%
Actual PER: 9.7
Estimated PER:11.1
Glasgow-based Robert Wiseman has a strong reputation in the declining dairy sector for efficient management and marketing and this has shown through in the sales and profits record over the past five years. The shares, currently 485p, are priced at 9.7 times 2010 actual earnings of 50p per share and yield a well covered 3.7%.
Although the overall opportunities for growth are clearly limited in the UK dairy industry as a whole, Robert Wiseman Dairies has developed a strong record of profits and dividends with sales expanding by more than 80% over the past five years while pre-tax profits grew by just under 100%, earnings were up by 78% and dividends more than kept pace with a five-year increase exceeding 120%.
The Wiseman brothers, who own approximately one third of the listed equity in the group, seem capable of continuing their excellent track record for some time to come.
Dairy Crest
Code: DCG.L
Recent Price: 374p
Div Yield: 5.0%
Actual PER: 9.4
Estimated PER:8.1
The past five years' trading record of Dairy Crest, a group that grew after the dismantling of the Milk Marketing Board (MMB), is an interesting illustration of the difference in business performance that can occur when one compares an established group operated entity with one run by clear sighted entrepreneurs.
Dairy Crest, as an example of the former, has managed to raise sales by no more than 29% over the past five years with a paltry gain of only 11% in pre-tax profits over the period while earnings and dividends per share actually fell by 2% and 5% respectively.
On the basis of the past five year record the outlook for shareholders in Robert Wiseman would appear considerably brighter than for those in the larger Dairy Crest even though analysts are estimating stronger earnings projections in 2011 for the latter company.
I plan the next article in this series should cover the overseas plantation sector.
16.09.10 10:51
The previous articles in this series highlighting investment opportunities in the agricultural and soft commodity sector have covered the general background to global supply and demand and more specifically the role of exchange traded funds.
I thought that I would turn now to some of the specific direct equity investment options that exist in this sector.
As domestic agriculture now plays a relatively small role in the UK economy the investment options in direct agricultural production have, for many years, focused on food production companies on the one hand and traditional plantation crop producers on the other.
Given the historical ties between Britain and its colonies the importance of tropical plantation agriculture is perfectly understandable. This general approach contrasts strongly with the US scene where agriculture plays a much larger role in the whole economy.
For British investors direct equity investment in soft commodities and farming, using the medium of London-listed companies, really comes down to the major food production groups such as Unilever (ULVR), Tate & Lyle (TATE), the dairying companies and the smaller producers such as Cranswick (CWK) and Glanbia (GLB) on the one hand and the overseas plantation companies on the other.
Apart from these there are a few listed companies that are directly or indirectly involved in producing a range of agricultural commodities.
In this article I shall touch briefly on some of the major food production companies listed on the LSE main market and follow in the next one with a focus on plantation companies and other overseas producers.
Analysis of the longer-term sales and profits for most agricultural sector producers throws up a generally lacklustre record with occasional bursts of prosperity achieved when positive environmental factors happen to coincide with spikes in commodity prices.
Of course, these occurrences are relatively rare as good weather conditions usually lead to production gluts and lower prices.
However, the increasing incidence of extreme climatic conditions in specific regions can, from time to time, deliver attractive short-term financial benefits to producers operating in those parts of the globe unaffected by droughts, floods and other climatic disasters.
The large London-listed global food producers
Unilever
Code: ULVR.L
Recent Price: 1743p
Div yield: 3.6% A Actual 2009 PER: 14.3
Estimated PER: 13
As global food producers go, Unilever is up there with the big ones with a market cap of £22.5 billion, annual sales of £35 billion and 2009 pre-tax profits of £4.3 billion. Their food products include well known brands such as Lipton (tea), Hellmans (mayonnaise), Knorr (soups) and Flora (margarine).
Although direct crop production is a relatively small component of the group's overall business the Unilever group is nevertheless closely linked to farming practices through its involvement with tea producers and oil palm plantations and the group is also a founder member of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil.
Investment in Unilever is generally considered to be a sound long-term constituent of balanced equity portfolios as its concentration on the processing, marketing and distribution aspects of the food industry provides some protection against the volatility and lower margins inherent in the production end of the food chain.
However, in no way can it be considered other than as a staid large global producer of foodstuffs and toiletries that is never likely to outperform smaller focused businesses with strong niche market positions.
Tate & Lyle
Code: TATE.L
Recent Price: 440p
Div Yield: 5.2%
Actual PER: 7.1
Estimated PER: 10.9
Traditionally a large scale producer of sugar and sugar by-products this world famous group is now a developer and processor of corn and sugar products for a wide range of wholesale and retail customers.
At the current price level the shares offer a relatively safe dividend yield even though the analysts covering the shares are forecasting little growth in earnings and dividends over the next couple of years.
Smaller food producers
Cranswick
Code: CWK.L
Recent Price: 850p
Div Yield: 2.7%
Actual PER: 12.3
Estimated PER: 11.6
Cranswick is included in this list because it started life in 1988 as a famer-owned pig production company and, until 2007, owned most of the farms on which the pigs used for their pork and sausage products were raised.
Cranswick is now a highly successful food production company with processing factories close to their suppliers' pig farms in Yorkshire and Norfolk. The sale of the company's farm units some three years ago demonstrates the higher margins achievable in the processing and manufacture of their final products. These include pork, sausages and general charcuterie as well as higher value sandwiches and convenience foods.
Although Cranswick is no longer a direct farm production company it remains an interesting investment as it has an enviable record of steady uninterrupted growth in sales, profits, earnings and dividends over more than five years. It is not particularly cheap in comparison with other food manufacturers but would make a solid component of any long-term equity portfolio.
The fact that Cranswick, as a business started by farmers, decided to dispose of the farming side of its activities three years ago demonstrates the prevalent corporate view that investment in agricultural production usually delivers poor returns.
The relatively low return on total capital invested in the actual process of farm production, including the value of the land, in densely populated countries like the UK is due in part to the very high value attaching to British farmland. This results mainly from non-agricultural demand for land for building and leisure uses.
For this reason, companies like Cranswick have moved capital away from land ownership into the higher yielding processing or retailing side of operations.
Glanbia
Code: GLB.L
Recent Price: EUR3.60
Div Yield: 2%
Actual PER: 9.2
Estimated PER: 8.9
Glanbia is an Irish domiciled cheese processor specialising in Mozzarella cheeses and has operating plants in the UK, the USA and Nigeria as well as in Northern Ireland.
Although closely associated with the dairy industry their connection to producers is effectively that of product purchasers rather than producers.
The UK dairy companies
Robert Wiseman Dairies
Code: RWD.L
Recent Price: 485p
Div Yield: 3.7%
Actual PER: 9.7
Estimated PER:11.1
Glasgow-based Robert Wiseman has a strong reputation in the declining dairy sector for efficient management and marketing and this has shown through in the sales and profits record over the past five years. The shares, currently 485p, are priced at 9.7 times 2010 actual earnings of 50p per share and yield a well covered 3.7%.
Although the overall opportunities for growth are clearly limited in the UK dairy industry as a whole, Robert Wiseman Dairies has developed a strong record of profits and dividends with sales expanding by more than 80% over the past five years while pre-tax profits grew by just under 100%, earnings were up by 78% and dividends more than kept pace with a five-year increase exceeding 120%.
The Wiseman brothers, who own approximately one third of the listed equity in the group, seem capable of continuing their excellent track record for some time to come.
Dairy Crest
Code: DCG.L
Recent Price: 374p
Div Yield: 5.0%
Actual PER: 9.4
Estimated PER:8.1
The past five years' trading record of Dairy Crest, a group that grew after the dismantling of the Milk Marketing Board (MMB), is an interesting illustration of the difference in business performance that can occur when one compares an established group operated entity with one run by clear sighted entrepreneurs.
Dairy Crest, as an example of the former, has managed to raise sales by no more than 29% over the past five years with a paltry gain of only 11% in pre-tax profits over the period while earnings and dividends per share actually fell by 2% and 5% respectively.
On the basis of the past five year record the outlook for shareholders in Robert Wiseman would appear considerably brighter than for those in the larger Dairy Crest even though analysts are estimating stronger earnings projections in 2011 for the latter company.
I plan the next article in this series should cover the overseas plantation sector.
2010年9月13日 星期一
中國鐵鈦(893)
主營業務
開採、選洗和銷售鐵礦石。
四川第二大及最大私營鐵礦石礦場營運商(四川最大的鐵礦石營運商是國營的)。
據美國地理調查（USGS）2008年的調查指出，中國的鐵礦石儲存量約佔全球的14%，是全球5大鐵礦石儲量國，主要集中於中國的東北、北部及西南部地區。在西南部地區中，尤以四川省的鐵礦石資源較多。2008年中國國家統計局數據顯示，四川省的鐵礦石儲量約有31億噸，為全國第三大；產量則約 5,700萬噸，於全國排第四位。
收入來源
鐵精礦 用作銷售及製造集團球團礦的原材料 佔收入約5成
球團礦 一般由鐵精礦混合膨潤土製成，並用於鋼鐵生產 佔收入約5成
主要銷售予鋼鐵生産商，其生産平均强度在1,200牛頓至1,400之間
鈦精礦 主要用於鈦相關的下游産品，如鈦渣 約佔1.3%
鐵精礦和球團礦 - 煉鋼的原料
中鈦自營兩大礦場
白草
秀水河 - 探明及概算總儲量僅為18.7百萬噸 (只有少於6年的開採壽命)。
New 2010
01-2010陽雀箐 (鐵礦石資源量約為17.9百萬噸)
有機會擴張目的採礦區 - 低成本勘探開發毗鄰的鐵礦石資源(估計高達81.6百萬噸)。
02-2010茨竹箐 - 探礦權 (Purchase 2010-02) 估計鐵礦石資源量為25.6百萬噸
位於釩鈦磁鐵礦儲量最豐富的攀西地區 (專業報告指出，四川省的釩鈦磁鐵礦儲量約佔全中國總儲量的83.2%)
鐵鈦擁有的鐵礦資源中，含有較高比例的釩及鈦金屬
公司的目標礦產必要符合儲量不少於2,000萬噸、內部回報率25%，以及集中於釩鈦磁鐵礦資源3個條件
洗選設施
New 2010
海龍洗選廠
黑谷田洗選廠，
地點 産品
白草洗選廠 靠近白草鐵礦 鐵精礦及中品位鈦精礦
秀水河洗選廠 靠近秀水河鐵礦 鐵精礦及中品位鈦精礦
球團廠 離秀水河鐵礦及108國道36公里 球國礦
海龍生產設施 靠近茨竹菁鐵礦 鐵精礦
黑谷田生產設施 鹽邊縣新九鄉黑谷田 鐵精礦及高品位鈦精礦
中鈦開探的鐵礦含釩量也算高，相信不難賣出好價錢。(據說好像多含0.1%釩，鋼材的強度便能有10%的提升……)
四川省礦石的定價，受國際方面的影響還是比較小。2008年國際礦價跌30%或40%時，四川省礦價只跌10%，因而四川省的漲幅相對國際礦價也會小一點
利好
中國西部大開發2011年隨着四川省當地利好行業政策推出，鋼鐵廠准許擴產，加上汶川地震後對高強度鋼筋需求提升，都將帶動鐵礦石的需求.
中國鋼鐵行業的整合升級 - 增大市場對釩資源的需求
2009年3月20日出台的《鋼鐵產業調整和振興規劃》，至2011年，強度在400兆帕以上的熱軋帶鋼筋的使用比例 (用於住房的高強度鋼筋) 將達到60%以上。由於釩正是唯一獲廣泛應用以提高鋼鐵強度的添加劑，換句話說，若高強度鋼筋使用比例增加，間接也帶動了對釩的需求。
四川省在鼓勵釩鈦資源綜合利用政策影響下，當地的一些大型鋼企將有新一輪的產能擴張計劃，預計到2011年時有700萬噸的產能開始逐步釋放，這將拉動對四川省的鐵礦石需求。」
開采成本低、綜合收益高。由于公司鐵礦礦床厚、埋層淺，適合于露天開采，因此開采成本較低。同時公司鐵礦類型爲釩鈦磁鐵礦，選礦過程中不僅可得到鐵精粉，還可收穫鈦精礦，綜合收益高。我們認爲釩都屬于稀缺的戰略金屬，公司擁有的豐富的釩鈦資源，爲其以後延伸産業鏈、提升産品附加值奠定了良好的基礎
Futute acquirsation - 小黑箐經質鐵礦的收購選擇權延長一年，年內條件允許時收購毛嶺鐵礦(資源量為10.0百萬噸，面積為1.9平方公里)及羊龍山鐵礦的探礦權。
計劃建設一個年產能約1,500千噸的新鐵礦球團廠，使球團礦的自產年產能增至約1,860千噸。
第一階段施工，預計年產能約1,000千噸，第一期將於2011年第二季度完成。
2011年1月前建設鐵精礦年產能為250千噸的生產設施。
2010-09 完成建設年產能為300千噸的新鐵精礦生產線及60千噸的新高品位鈦精礦生產.
Target 維持產能年增30%的速度發展
2010年EPS預測增長29%，2011年再增長27%，兩個年度預期PE僅10.2倍及8倍，具吸引力.
2010鐵精礦上半年産量按年增長16%至86.6萬噸，只相當於公司全年目標的44%。這主要是由於上半年四川旱災影響水和電的供應。公司上半年已經啓動兩個新的鐵精礦生産設施，本行認為公司實現全年195萬噸的鐵精礦産量是可以實現的。
鐵精礦及球團礦在上半年的實現價格分別為每噸665元人民幣及880元人民幣，按年升29%及21%，並較公司所簽訂的合約底價高9%及1%。雖然國內的鐵礦石價格或因鋼廠限產以達成減排節能目標的消息而面臨短期壓力，但本行認為公司的盈利風險較低，因公司已跟主要客戶簽訂價格保底協議
中鐵鈦去年上市集資凈額16.62億元（18.87億港元），主要計劃用於並購其他礦場及擴展現有的採礦邊界，建設鈦渣生產線、建設精礦生產線等。至去年底為止，集資所得只用了11%。
09年底，中鐵鈦手上凈現金17.84億元。手上現金多，有利並購，併為未來盈利增長帶來動力。
假設中國鐵鈦於2010年下半年將會以合約價下限出售其產品，並可達到全年的產量目標，本行預測公司2010年盈利可達5.01億元人民幣(每股盈利0.24元人民幣)。另外，假設鐵精礦及球團礦的平均銷售價格升9%及3%; 2) 產能擴張23%; 3)生產成本於2011年升3%，本行預測公司2011年將錄得純利6.85億元人民幣(每股盈利0.33元人民幣)，這意味著2009年至2011年的每股盈利年複合增長率達28%。
相當於12倍2010年巿盈率及8.7倍2011年巿盈率，由於公司的盈利增長前景亮麗、自身業務增長強勁及有可能收購額外產能，故此本行相信中國鐵鈦的估值備受低估。
6個月目標價4.1元，相當於2011年11倍的巿盈率
下行風險
生產因天災受阻或公司與礦務合同商發生糾紛而受阻以及四川省的鋼鐵需求較預期低。
秀水河只有少於6年的開採壽命, 6年過去，便只得靠白草礦場一柱擎天好了，而收入也將大受影響
鐵精礦和球團礦的價回落了不少，中國對鐵礦石的龐大需求一直被外商牽著鼻子走
鐵路運輸 - 唯一運輸門路只有成昆鐵路。雖說有鐵路運輸能力的優先權，但天災、橫禍是很難避免的，只得一條對外出路，風險也不小。
開採、選洗和銷售鐵礦石。
四川第二大及最大私營鐵礦石礦場營運商(四川最大的鐵礦石營運商是國營的)。
據美國地理調查（USGS）2008年的調查指出，中國的鐵礦石儲存量約佔全球的14%，是全球5大鐵礦石儲量國，主要集中於中國的東北、北部及西南部地區。在西南部地區中，尤以四川省的鐵礦石資源較多。2008年中國國家統計局數據顯示，四川省的鐵礦石儲量約有31億噸，為全國第三大；產量則約 5,700萬噸，於全國排第四位。
收入來源
鐵精礦 用作銷售及製造集團球團礦的原材料 佔收入約5成
球團礦 一般由鐵精礦混合膨潤土製成，並用於鋼鐵生產 佔收入約5成
主要銷售予鋼鐵生産商，其生産平均强度在1,200牛頓至1,400之間
鈦精礦 主要用於鈦相關的下游産品，如鈦渣 約佔1.3%
鐵精礦和球團礦 - 煉鋼的原料
中鈦自營兩大礦場
白草
秀水河 - 探明及概算總儲量僅為18.7百萬噸 (只有少於6年的開採壽命)。
New 2010
01-2010陽雀箐 (鐵礦石資源量約為17.9百萬噸)
有機會擴張目的採礦區 - 低成本勘探開發毗鄰的鐵礦石資源(估計高達81.6百萬噸)。
02-2010茨竹箐 - 探礦權 (Purchase 2010-02) 估計鐵礦石資源量為25.6百萬噸
位於釩鈦磁鐵礦儲量最豐富的攀西地區 (專業報告指出，四川省的釩鈦磁鐵礦儲量約佔全中國總儲量的83.2%)
鐵鈦擁有的鐵礦資源中，含有較高比例的釩及鈦金屬
公司的目標礦產必要符合儲量不少於2,000萬噸、內部回報率25%，以及集中於釩鈦磁鐵礦資源3個條件
洗選設施
New 2010
海龍洗選廠
黑谷田洗選廠，
地點 産品
白草洗選廠 靠近白草鐵礦 鐵精礦及中品位鈦精礦
秀水河洗選廠 靠近秀水河鐵礦 鐵精礦及中品位鈦精礦
球團廠 離秀水河鐵礦及108國道36公里 球國礦
海龍生產設施 靠近茨竹菁鐵礦 鐵精礦
黑谷田生產設施 鹽邊縣新九鄉黑谷田 鐵精礦及高品位鈦精礦
中鈦開探的鐵礦含釩量也算高，相信不難賣出好價錢。(據說好像多含0.1%釩，鋼材的強度便能有10%的提升……)
四川省礦石的定價，受國際方面的影響還是比較小。2008年國際礦價跌30%或40%時，四川省礦價只跌10%，因而四川省的漲幅相對國際礦價也會小一點
利好
中國西部大開發2011年隨着四川省當地利好行業政策推出，鋼鐵廠准許擴產，加上汶川地震後對高強度鋼筋需求提升，都將帶動鐵礦石的需求.
中國鋼鐵行業的整合升級 - 增大市場對釩資源的需求
2009年3月20日出台的《鋼鐵產業調整和振興規劃》，至2011年，強度在400兆帕以上的熱軋帶鋼筋的使用比例 (用於住房的高強度鋼筋) 將達到60%以上。由於釩正是唯一獲廣泛應用以提高鋼鐵強度的添加劑，換句話說，若高強度鋼筋使用比例增加，間接也帶動了對釩的需求。
四川省在鼓勵釩鈦資源綜合利用政策影響下，當地的一些大型鋼企將有新一輪的產能擴張計劃，預計到2011年時有700萬噸的產能開始逐步釋放，這將拉動對四川省的鐵礦石需求。」
開采成本低、綜合收益高。由于公司鐵礦礦床厚、埋層淺，適合于露天開采，因此開采成本較低。同時公司鐵礦類型爲釩鈦磁鐵礦，選礦過程中不僅可得到鐵精粉，還可收穫鈦精礦，綜合收益高。我們認爲釩都屬于稀缺的戰略金屬，公司擁有的豐富的釩鈦資源，爲其以後延伸産業鏈、提升産品附加值奠定了良好的基礎
Futute acquirsation - 小黑箐經質鐵礦的收購選擇權延長一年，年內條件允許時收購毛嶺鐵礦(資源量為10.0百萬噸，面積為1.9平方公里)及羊龍山鐵礦的探礦權。
計劃建設一個年產能約1,500千噸的新鐵礦球團廠，使球團礦的自產年產能增至約1,860千噸。
第一階段施工，預計年產能約1,000千噸，第一期將於2011年第二季度完成。
2011年1月前建設鐵精礦年產能為250千噸的生產設施。
2010-09 完成建設年產能為300千噸的新鐵精礦生產線及60千噸的新高品位鈦精礦生產.
Target 維持產能年增30%的速度發展
2010年EPS預測增長29%，2011年再增長27%，兩個年度預期PE僅10.2倍及8倍，具吸引力.
2010鐵精礦上半年産量按年增長16%至86.6萬噸，只相當於公司全年目標的44%。這主要是由於上半年四川旱災影響水和電的供應。公司上半年已經啓動兩個新的鐵精礦生産設施，本行認為公司實現全年195萬噸的鐵精礦産量是可以實現的。
鐵精礦及球團礦在上半年的實現價格分別為每噸665元人民幣及880元人民幣，按年升29%及21%，並較公司所簽訂的合約底價高9%及1%。雖然國內的鐵礦石價格或因鋼廠限產以達成減排節能目標的消息而面臨短期壓力，但本行認為公司的盈利風險較低，因公司已跟主要客戶簽訂價格保底協議
中鐵鈦去年上市集資凈額16.62億元（18.87億港元），主要計劃用於並購其他礦場及擴展現有的採礦邊界，建設鈦渣生產線、建設精礦生產線等。至去年底為止，集資所得只用了11%。
09年底，中鐵鈦手上凈現金17.84億元。手上現金多，有利並購，併為未來盈利增長帶來動力。
假設中國鐵鈦於2010年下半年將會以合約價下限出售其產品，並可達到全年的產量目標，本行預測公司2010年盈利可達5.01億元人民幣(每股盈利0.24元人民幣)。另外，假設鐵精礦及球團礦的平均銷售價格升9%及3%; 2) 產能擴張23%; 3)生產成本於2011年升3%，本行預測公司2011年將錄得純利6.85億元人民幣(每股盈利0.33元人民幣)，這意味著2009年至2011年的每股盈利年複合增長率達28%。
相當於12倍2010年巿盈率及8.7倍2011年巿盈率，由於公司的盈利增長前景亮麗、自身業務增長強勁及有可能收購額外產能，故此本行相信中國鐵鈦的估值備受低估。
6個月目標價4.1元，相當於2011年11倍的巿盈率
下行風險
生產因天災受阻或公司與礦務合同商發生糾紛而受阻以及四川省的鋼鐵需求較預期低。
秀水河只有少於6年的開採壽命, 6年過去，便只得靠白草礦場一柱擎天好了，而收入也將大受影響
鐵精礦和球團礦的價回落了不少，中國對鐵礦石的龐大需求一直被外商牽著鼻子走
鐵路運輸 - 唯一運輸門路只有成昆鐵路。雖說有鐵路運輸能力的優先權，但天災、橫禍是很難避免的，只得一條對外出路，風險也不小。
2010年9月6日 星期一
浙江世寶 8331
浙江世寶（8331）
專業製造汽車轉向系統產品為主，集研發、製造銷售為一體的現代化企業
總部位於杭州，並於杭州、長春、四平、蕪湖、義烏等地擁有6家子公司
3年奪得全國百家優秀汽車零件供應商殊榮，去年被評為國家重點高新技術企業，授予《中國汽車零部件轉向器行業龍頭企業》的榮譽稱號
蘊涵不少重大利好消息，惟股價卻未曾反映。
假設下半年盈利與上半年接近，市盈率返回11倍，浙江世寶的合理股價為5.2元，
現價僅3.04元，潛在上升空間相當不錯。
產品
100萬台/套各類汽車轉向系統產品的生產規模
包括機械式循環球轉向器、液壓動力循環球轉向器、齒輪齒條轉向器、電動轉向器、轉向節（包括紅旗轉向節、M6轉向節）、轉閥式轉向控制閥（用於液壓動力循環轉向器及液壓動力齒輪齒條轉向器），
大部份產品度身訂造，迎合不同汽車的規格。
客戶
涵蓋著名車商
全國建立了廣泛的銷售網絡和客戶網，所有產品均透過直銷渠道推出市場，
客戶涵蓋一汽集團、東風汽車集團、湖北三環、丹東黃海、金龍汽車、南京躍進、雲南力帆、奇瑞汽車、江淮集團、一汽轎車、一汽大眾、天汽、杭汽、南汽、柳汽、宇通、十通等中國著名汽車製造商。
擴張產能
為了應付重點客戶所佔市場份額明顯上升 - 積極擴張產能，
10年6月之後，公司產能已大幅上升
公司自主研發的電動轉向系統產品形成系列化，成功覆蓋商用車、乘用車到新能源汽車的全系列車型。
10年6月底止中期業績，浙江世寶的營業額大幅上升75.86%至2.68億元，中期盈利激增1.23倍，每股盈利20.28分。
估計全年每股盈利可達41分或47港仙，給予其11倍市盈率，股價已值5.2元。
浙江世寶在今年1月已建議將上市地位由創業板轉往主板，料對其股價可構成明顯刺激。
專業製造汽車轉向系統產品為主，集研發、製造銷售為一體的現代化企業
總部位於杭州，並於杭州、長春、四平、蕪湖、義烏等地擁有6家子公司
3年奪得全國百家優秀汽車零件供應商殊榮，去年被評為國家重點高新技術企業，授予《中國汽車零部件轉向器行業龍頭企業》的榮譽稱號
蘊涵不少重大利好消息，惟股價卻未曾反映。
假設下半年盈利與上半年接近，市盈率返回11倍，浙江世寶的合理股價為5.2元，
現價僅3.04元，潛在上升空間相當不錯。
產品
100萬台/套各類汽車轉向系統產品的生產規模
包括機械式循環球轉向器、液壓動力循環球轉向器、齒輪齒條轉向器、電動轉向器、轉向節（包括紅旗轉向節、M6轉向節）、轉閥式轉向控制閥（用於液壓動力循環轉向器及液壓動力齒輪齒條轉向器），
大部份產品度身訂造，迎合不同汽車的規格。
客戶
涵蓋著名車商
全國建立了廣泛的銷售網絡和客戶網，所有產品均透過直銷渠道推出市場，
客戶涵蓋一汽集團、東風汽車集團、湖北三環、丹東黃海、金龍汽車、南京躍進、雲南力帆、奇瑞汽車、江淮集團、一汽轎車、一汽大眾、天汽、杭汽、南汽、柳汽、宇通、十通等中國著名汽車製造商。
擴張產能
為了應付重點客戶所佔市場份額明顯上升 - 積極擴張產能，
10年6月之後，公司產能已大幅上升
公司自主研發的電動轉向系統產品形成系列化，成功覆蓋商用車、乘用車到新能源汽車的全系列車型。
10年6月底止中期業績，浙江世寶的營業額大幅上升75.86%至2.68億元，中期盈利激增1.23倍，每股盈利20.28分。
估計全年每股盈利可達41分或47港仙，給予其11倍市盈率，股價已值5.2元。
浙江世寶在今年1月已建議將上市地位由創業板轉往主板，料對其股價可構成明顯刺激。
2010年9月5日 星期日
光匯石油加大東部佈局 中船燃料獨大局面受衝擊
2010年01月15日 08:43 來源：每日經濟新聞
有業內分析師認為，光匯石油在東部的不斷佈局，或許會進一步衝擊過去壟斷市場30多年，現在一家獨大的中 國船舶燃料有限責任公司 (以下簡稱中船燃料)的市場份額。而中船燃料供油部有關人士1月14日在接受《每日經濟新聞》記者採訪時也坦言，自去年金融危機以來，船運市場的低迷讓國 內保稅船用燃料油競爭壓力更大。
光匯石油擴容碼頭儲油設施
1月12日，光匯石油公告稱，正考慮將擬建的浙江舟山碼頭儲油設施容量擴大一倍，並與舟山市政府簽署 協議，獲得舟山外釣島整體開發建設權。該公司計劃在該島追加20億元投資，將碼頭儲油設施的總儲存量從之前擬定的220萬立方米增加至最多550萬立方 米。而此前公司在該島已經計劃累計投資50億元。
息旺能源負責保稅油市場研究的分析師在接受記者採訪時稱，自去年年中光匯石油獲得全國經營資質後，正逐步擴大在國內的碼頭網路，以擴大保稅船用燃料油市場份額。
除光匯石油外，去年新獲批取得全國經營資質的還有中石化舟山石油分公司和長江燃料有限公司，其他兩家則是中船燃料和中石化中海船舶燃料供應有限公司。
市場未完全開放致利潤豐厚
據記者了解，國內船用油供應分保稅和國際貿易兩種方式，與後者相比，前者市場並沒有完全開放。上述分析師表示，由於保稅船用燃料油供應還不是完全的自由競爭，因此其利潤比國際貿易要高得多，平均的銷售毛利估計每噸有5~10美元左右。
“對於保稅船用油市場的進一步開放，政府仍有一些顧慮。”息旺能源諮詢總監廖娜認為，不過這並不意味著未來不會發放新的經營許可。她補充說，目前現有的幾家市場新參與者在獲得新港口經營許可方面沒有政策限制。
“2009年，我國保稅船用燃料油總的銷售額有30億~40億美元，基本上被上述5家企業瓜分。”上述分析師說道，“還有一家張家港企業中油泰富也有經營資質，但該企業只在當地保稅區開展業務，量相當小。”
分析師稱，光匯石油強勁的誇張之勢必然會衝擊中船燃料一家獨大的地位。不過，這種競爭只是造成中船燃料市場份額減少，但國內總的銷售額卻保持增長，這會使整個市場越來越成熟，因此是利好的。
廖娜預測，至2013年，國內船用油需求規模可達2943萬噸左右，相比2009年增幅達75%，其中保稅船用油比重還將上升，預計約為1589萬噸，佔總量的54%，相比2009年上升13個百分點。
保稅船用油市場競爭加大
“保稅船用油市場正由相對壟斷走向相對競爭，新的燃料油供應商的加入，已經造成中國部分港口的燃料油價格下降。”上述分析師認為，價格的下降也使一部分日韓地區船東客戶分流至中國市場。
廖娜認為，保稅船用油業務取消經營的地域限制，這讓過去30多年一直獨家經營保稅船用油的中船燃料面臨壓力。據統計，光匯石油保稅船用油的銷售額在200萬噸左右，已佔到約30%的市場份額，而中船燃料佔據了60%左右，剩下10%的份額被3家公司瓜分。
中船燃料供油部有關人士認為，公司為國有企業，多年來已在全國從南到北建立了網點，在國內主要港口及 新加坡等地擁有實力雄厚的地區性專業公司，具有競爭優勢。對此，光匯石油有關人士稱，公司與中船燃料在客戶市場上存在差異化，雙方沒有衝突。中船燃料主要 以國內客戶為主，光匯則是國外船東。
除光匯外，其他新進入者也積極準備擴張。長江燃料副總經理李新科說，2010年集裝箱業務有望觸底回升，公司將趁機拓展國內整個沿海區域的保稅船用油業務，以及尋求建立全球銷售網路。
為了應對光匯在東部市場的壓力，中船燃料也在去年底投入運營了青島國際船舶燃油中轉基地，這使其燃油分撥業務服務可涵蓋南起連雲港北至大連港在內的環渤海沿岸各個港口，並可輻射至日韓港口，降低運營成本。(記者 喻春來）
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