2010年4月5日 星期一

林業產業

林業產業去年總產值1﹒58萬億元,同比升9﹒8%

《經濟通通訊社24日專訊》中國林產工業協會的統計顯示,2009年中國林業產業總產值達到1﹒58 萬億元人民幣,較上年增長9﹒81%。中國林產品進出口貿易總額達到600億美元,僅次於美國,居世界第二位。

中國林產工業協會執行 會長王滿表示,近年來中國林業產業規模不斷擴大,經濟實力進一步增強。進入新世紀以來的9年中,中國林業產業產值以年均12%的速度增長,目前全 國擁有涉林企業25萬家,其中包括約5萬家年產值500萬元以上的規模企業

按照2009年中國政府正式頒布的《林業產業振興規 劃》,2010年至2012年的3年內,中國林業產業將持續發展,產業結構得到優化,產業面不斷擴大,產品質量明顯提高,應用領域不斷擴 大,進出口貿易穩步發展。

王滿表示,按照規劃要求,2012年中國林業產業總產值將增長至2﹒26萬億元,年平均增速保持在 12%;2012年中國林產品國際貿易總量將超過900億美元,其中出口總額達到或超過500億美元,人造板、木地板、家具、木門等優勢產品繼續 保持世界出口第一強國的地位

王滿指出,中國林業產業資源短缺的制約因素雖將長期存在,但未來會朝著不斷弱化的方向
發展。可 以預見,中國林業產業可持續發展能力會不斷增強。

建銀國際

該行分析,中國對木材的需求正加速增長,部分重點木材於2009至2015年的需求年複合增長率將達10%。此外,中國政府有意加速推動行業改革及發展,令具相當規模的林業企業可進一步受惠。而近期內地林業企業來港上市集資,將可喚起投資者對行業的關注及了解。

建銀國際首推中國森林(00930),因該股可持續地維持高水平的邊際利潤。此外,該行亦推介三林環球(03938)、兩儀控股(00094)及晉盈控股 (00723),預期該等公司於2010年及2011年的預測綜合盈利分別增長65%及54%。

三林環球(3938) half yr result

三林環球(03938)

......由於林木業務銷售量及價格 均有所上升,特別是內地地板業務經營利潤按年升幅超過1倍,令截至去年12月底止,集團綜合毛利率升至12﹒1%,按年增加3﹒5個百分點。

收入比重較大的原木業務,半年度毛利率跌7個百分點至7﹒1%。羅仲年指,由於08年9月「金融海嘯」爆發後,經濟到去年1至6月才跌至低位,對產品平均售價產生影響,原木售價亦因而出現下滑趨勢,但價格已於去年7至12月回穩,只是由於買家傾向購買較次 一級的木材而令平均售價未能大幅回升,惟12月底止上半年度的原木業務毛利率已是之前的半年度錄得的4%有所回升。

合板價格於去年7 至12月亦自谷底回升至約每平方米420美元,較去年1至6月低位回升約70美元,但相較08年同期則仍然較低

產品出口售價有所下跌,但毛利率仍能向上,是由於毛利率較高的地板分銷業務 於期內帶來完整的6個月貢獻,有別於08年同期初收購時錄得的4個月貢獻;期內 油價下跌以及集團的減省成本措施亦令生產成本得以回落。又說,由於目前市場對木材的需求已見回升,但供應仍未恢復以往水平,因此售價有空 間上升,展望今年木材市場仍會求過於供。
 
他又期望,集團毛利率維持現有水平。並稱,地板分銷業務已往毛利率高達28%至30%,期望可以維持。該業務上半年度毛利率為25﹒3%,按年微跌0﹒4個百分點。
集團 會繼續於東南亞及南美等地物色收購林木資源。今年6月底至全年資本開支預算約4000萬美元,上、下半年各佔一半,用於在現有的樹林持續種樹,按每年的計劃新增設備提升產能及於紐西蘭開設合板廠,目標2011年投產

集團地板分銷點於去年12月底止年度增加約80個至 合共650個,下半年會視乎情況再增網點,目標於明年底提升至1000個,但由於以特許經營方式開設,故集團需動用資金有限。

於去年底止的中期,集團手頭現金約1﹒8億美元,較去年6月底減少近6100萬美元,主要由於期內增持馬來西亞上市之Lingui,涉資約 1200萬美元,同時集團於資本開支以及償還債務方面亦有支出。

他又指,集團會繼續維持每年派息25%至30%。

集團行 政總裁丘志明表示,由於各地區經濟很大程度由地產市場支撐,木材為建屋不可或缺的一部分,因此對市場前景具信心

集團目前銷售中有三分一出口至內地市場,他相信相關比例仍有上升空間,但集團政策為個別市場銷售 比例不會多於50%。他又相信,印度的銷售亦會愈來愈好。

由於集團木資源遍布面積廣,當中或儲有不少天然資源,倘有發現,不排除 會進行開發集團於印尼木場亦發現煤礦,正進行盡職審查,期望可於本月底前完成

2010年4月4日 星期日

Antrim Energy Inc. Reports 2009 Results and Reserves

All financial figures are audited and in US dollars except for quarterly figures which are unaudited 2009 Highlights:

- Production in Argentina increased to 1,840 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boepd") from 1,411 boepd in 2008,

- United Kingdom proved plus probable oil reserves increased 5.7% to 27.7 million boe

- Argentina proved plus probable oil and gas reserves decreased 4.4% to 9.4 million boe

- Financial flexibility with strong cash position of $31 million and no debt

Proved plus probable reserves of 37.2 million barrels of oil equivalent ("boe"), 3% higher than in 2008.

United Kingdom

Fyne and Dandy total proved plus probable reserves increased to 17.5 million boe (16m in 2008)

47.1% of the Company's total 2P reserves.

Causeway total 2P remained at 10.2 million boe (net to Antrim).

On March 4, 2010, a Conditional Letter Agreement with ("Valiant") sell a 30% interest in Causeway. Antrim will receive up to a $21.75 million carried contribution
towards the development costs of bringing the field to production start-up. Reserves previously described do not reflect the impact of this sale.

Argentina,

the total 2P -4.4% to 9.4 million boe. (9.9 million boe in 2008 (net to Antrim)).

Due to 2009 production.

Eight well drilling program in Tierra del Fuego, designed to increase gas and NGL production from the Los Flamencos gas field, commenced in late February 2010. The first well has been drilled and show as a potential gas well with 50 feet of gross pay.

Reserves Summary

Antrim's Interest in Reserves as at December 31, 2009
(based on forecast price and cost assumptions)
Oil Gas NGL Total
Category mbbls mmcf mbbls mboe
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved 832 21,025 163 4,500
Proved plus probable 29,313 44,734 394 37,163
Proved plus probable plus possible 57,489 55,709 471 67,245

Present Value Cash Flow Before Income Tax
(based on forecast price and cost assumptions)
PV PV PV
Category 0% 5% 10%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Proved 50,684 42,576 36,293
Proved plus probable 1,267,137 877,833 618,307
Proved plus probable plus possible 3,369,440 2,254,674 1,563,638

Financial and Operating Results

Three Months Ended Year Ended December
December 31, 31,
2009 2008 2009 2008
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial Results ($000's except per share amounts)
------------------------------------
Revenue 3,371 2,651 12,953 12,034
Cash flow (used in) from operations (1,378) (1,032) (1,067) 307
Cash flow (used in) from operations
per share (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) 0.00
Net income (loss) (6,071) (7,152) (12,560) (13,031)
Net income (loss) per share - basic (0.04) (0.05) (0.09) (0.10)
Total assets 285,119 271,361 285,119 271,361
Working capital 31,960 35,267 31,960 35,267
Expenditures on petroleum and
natural gas properties (548) 5,970 4,782 91,161
Debt - - - -

Common Shares Outstanding (000's)
------------------------------------
End of period 135,349 135,322 135,349 135,322
Weighted average - basic 135,291 135,054 135,284 125,775
Weighted average - diluted 136,041 135,054 136,034 125,775

Production
------------------------------------
Oil , natural gas and NGL production
(boe per day)(1) 1,990 1,391 1,840 1,411

(1)The boe conversion ratio of 6 mcf:1 bbl does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.

Cash flow from operations deficiency of $1.1 million in 2009 compared to cash flow of $0.3 million in 2008.
Cash flow decreased primarily due to higher operating costs, lower interest and other income offset by higher revenue and lower general and administrative costs.

Expenditures on petroleum and natural gas properties in 2009 were $4.8 million compared to $91.2 million in 2008.
Capital expenditures were significantly reduced in 2009,as the drilling programs in the UK and Argentina concluded in 2008.

2010 Outlook

Antrim's strong financial position which includes unrestricted cash available of $31.2 million and no debt provides Antrim with financial and operational flexibility.

Antrim is currently in discussion with floating production storage and offloading providers as well as local existing infrastructure owners to select the most efficient production export route for the Fyne Field. Antrim intends to select the optimum development scheme and produce a Field Development Plan for submission in late 2010. The Company's strategy in this core area is to accelerate its development by working closely with industry partners. Antrim is maturing drilling prospects on its surrounding licences in the Greater Fyne Area with a view to drilling in 2011.

Antrim expects to be active in the recently announced 26th UK offshore licensing round, building on the past success of acquiring strategic and potentially high impact properties in Greater Fyne.

With the expectation that Causeway will be funded to production and with the intention to acquire a development partner for Fyne, Antrim's other North Sea activity will be weighted towards adding value by exploring for new hydrocarbons and appraising existing discoveries.

In South America, the Company will also concentrate on the high value production assets in Tierra del Fuego with a view to increasing production in a rising price commodity market. The Antrim team intends to expand the Argentine operation primarily through new in-country exploration opportunities using the cash flow from existing Argentine operations. Antrim is also considering further development of its South American business and is in discussion on several growth opportunities.

Antrim views the bilateral strategy as central to its corporate development, balancing longer term and capital-intensive investments in the UK North Sea with shorter investment cycle on-shore exploration and production opportunities.

Antrim's daily production in Argentina is expected to average approximately 1,800 net boepd in 2010.

2010年4月2日 星期五

2009年中國味精市場供需市場分析

信息整理︰慧典市場研究報告網 http://www.hdcmr.com/ 信息來源︰中研網
  • 發表時間︰2009年12月17日

  谷氨酸短缺 味精翻倍暴漲

7月6000元/噸到12月初突破13000元/噸,味精,這個日常出現在餐桌上的調味品,在短短5個月中,出廠價格竟然超倍飆漲。

“這是近十年來味精漲價最厲害的一年。”一位味精經銷商用“瘋狂”二字形容此次漲價態勢。

不過,對于此次暴漲原因,與味精相關的行業協會卻表示不知道。 “原材料上漲”、“出口增加”、“下游需求增長”、“環保導致產能減少”成為此次漲價的理由。在眾說紛紜背後,味精漲價到底原因是什麼?

原材料上漲非主因

經濟觀察網記者獲悉,此輪漲價從國內大型味精生產廠家開始,小廠家跟進,最終形成全行業價格上漲趨勢。

根據梅花生物科技集團股份有限公司(下稱“梅花集團”)的公開數據顯示,2007年、2008年、2009年1-6月,其味精銷售均價分別是6180元/ 噸、6680元/噸、6810元/噸。阜豐集團有限公司(0546.HK,下稱阜豐集團)三個數據分別為5997元/噸、6865元/噸、6886元 /噸。

據山東一位味精生產廠家表示,今年7月,味精出廠價僅約6000元/噸,到9月已漲至約9800元/噸。進入10月,味精漲價加速,在大約每兩天一波的行 情下,味精出廠價于12月初已突破13000元/噸。

在他的記憶中,這種情形只在2002年出現過,當時味精價格連漲9個月,達到15000元/噸後回落,其後多年保持相對穩定。但今年漲速之快,連一些味精 廠家高層都沒有預料到。在味精價格達到 9000元/噸時,他們覺得接下來不會過萬,如今“誰都說不清楚到底漲到什麼時候。”

價格瘋狂暴漲令味精經銷商們變得謹慎,由于擔心價格跌回,他們一般根據需求進貨;另一方面,他們不能再和以往一樣隨時能提貨,打完款後,拿貨要等上7-8 天。一位蓮花味精的經銷商表示,由于貨源不足,已改用雞精替代味精來供給下游的餐廳和超市。

在此次漲價中,河南蓮花味精股份有限公司(600186.SH,下稱“蓮花味精”)是最大的受益者。從11 月17 日至25日,其股價漲幅超過20%而兩度停牌。一位券商食品行業研究員表示,前期大股東拍賣股權已造成一波股價熱炒,此次其股價上漲更重要的原因是味精漲 價。

由于多家券商認為味精可以漲至15000元/噸,在利好刺激下,市場對蓮花味精做出2009 年每股收益能達到0.7 元的判斷。

12月4日,蓮花味精對此發布澄清公告表示,由于今年東北、內蒙古玉米受干旱影響大幅減產,各大糧庫預計近期糧食價格還會大幅上漲,不願出售儲糧,造成公 司自產麩酸的主要原料玉米供應緊張,難以采購,對公司自產麩酸能力造成嚴重影響。

12月1 日,中國發酵工業協會在其官方網站上發布《關于下發味精調整價格因素分析的通知》。在“通知”中,該協會表示,國家產業政策調整,節能減排的工作力度加 大,以及產能和市場形勢的變化都導致了此輪味精價格調整。但其報告並沒有提及糧價上漲是此次味精漲價的推手。

上述食品行業研究員表示,按照正常情況,糧價上漲能夠推動味精價格上漲,但按照這次味精上漲幅度之大,糧價上漲完全可以覆蓋味精的上漲。

一位味精廠銷售副總對本報表示,9月以前味精漲價和玉米漲價有一定關系,但現在已沒有直接關系了。他說,7、8月,玉米價格飛漲時,味精單價只漲到 7000多元,漲價出于成本壓力。而味精市場缺貨主要是5-8月很多味精廠家檢修停產,特別是梅花味精環保問題被曝光後,幾家味精廠改產,使味精產量減少 了20萬噸,盡管 9-10月味精廠家滿負荷生產,但前期缺口已經形成,市場暫時難以填補起來。

供需之謎

對于此次味精漲價的真實原因,中國調味品協會人士表示不清楚,而廣東省食品行業協會會長張俊修初步猜測可能發生在出口上,由于美國鼓勵設立食品廠,出口可 能增長較快。

亞洲味精產量佔世界總產量的90%,中國是世界上最大的味精生產國。全國味精生產廠家已由最多時的200多家銳減到50多家,生產向集約化靠攏,阜豐、蓮 花、梅花產量約佔50%。

中國發酵工業協會在上述報告中表示,目前國際上味精的生產巨頭味之素公司,在東南亞和南美的生產企業由于環保等各種因素處于開工率不足狀態,導致國際市場 的需求增加;同時由于國際上飲食習慣的改變,味精使用量也有所增加,進一步刺激了出口,導致2009年味精出口量的大幅度增加。

不過,一位味精出口貿易人士表示,在國內味精瘋狂漲價面前,國際買家也冷淡下來,持觀望態度。早前,他注意到海關統計的味精外貿出口量從1-6月呈30度 增長,但7月以後隨著國內味精價格上漲,出口量開始降低,現在味精的出口價格和內銷價格差不多,在高價位面前,味精出口已變成有價無市。

“從1-10月,我們公司出口2000-3000噸,現在能出200-300噸就了不得。”上述人士表示,以前公司出口價格比內銷價格高出200-300 元,但現在即使出口和內銷保持一樣的價位也很難賣,“味精的價格從來沒有這麼瘋狂過。”

根據中國化工信息網統計的味精,味精出口從今年1月1637噸經過5月小幅回落後,到7月漲至5262噸,但從8月開始,出口量逐步遞減,到10月 2838 噸。

上述味精廠銷售副總表示,9月前國外沒有生產味精的廠家,但之後由于味丹在越南開了一家10萬噸廠,現在出口量稍微有點降低。

中國發酵工業協會在報告中表示,在國家宏觀政策的刺激下,內需增加迅速,食品行業、國內餐飲業等行業增長強勁,使得味精的需求量進一步增加。

但從事方便面生產的山西綠是金食品有限公司總裁張濱表示,越往經濟發達地區民用類味精用量呈萎縮趨勢,而工業類,如方便面的調味粉包,隨著方便面的萎縮需 求也不會上漲。盡管味精消費正在往二三線城市下沉,在整個農村市場味精有很大的份額,但整個需求提升不太可能

而產量數據時造成味精漲價眾說紛紜的一個原因。據國家統計局發布的今年前十月味精產量數據時200萬噸。但一位券商研究員和行業人士認為這個數據可能存在 重復計算問題。“去年味精的產量是180萬噸,不可能在前十個月內增加20萬噸。”上述味精廠銷售副總表示,以自己的掌握數據來看,1-10月味精產量是 170萬噸。

谷氨酸爭奪戰

盡管味精產業向大企業集中,在價格方面更有話語主導權,但行業人士表示,由于味精產品同質化嚴重,但並意味著他們能壟斷味精行業。

記者調查發現,在此次味精漲價中,造成味精短缺的真正原因,是處于上游的谷氨酸短缺,而谷氨酸產業基本上被國內7-8家大型味精廠壟斷。

谷氨酸,俗稱麩酸,是一種酸性氨基酸。在味精生產工藝中,谷氨酸玉米經過發酵等工序後形成谷氨酸鈉即味精,它和味精的產量匹配是1︰1.2。谷氨酸同時還 可以應用于醫藥、日用化妝品等產業。

據一位味精行業人士統計,2009年整個谷氨酸廠家產量為140-150萬噸,而谷氨酸的需求量應該超過170萬噸,這意味著谷氨酸的需求缺口超過 20-30萬噸。

他說,盡管目前味精企業精制能力強,但在谷氨酸沒有替代品的情況下,即使下游味精精制能力再大也沒有用,因為沒有原材料就不能生產。

記者獲悉,由于谷氨酸屬于技術比較密集型行業,投資較大,一般廠家不會投入。目前谷氨酸市場,小廠沒有生產能力,只有7、8家大型味精廠家如阜豐、梅花、 菱花、雪花、蓮花等才有配套生產,它們基本上掌握了味精的上游命脈。

而另一方面,這些大型的谷氨酸生產廠家首先是滿足自己需要,然後再是外賣。比如,蓮花味精預計2009年銷售主產品味精22 萬噸,但業內人士透露其生產谷氨酸能力大約是每年10萬噸,其余用量從雪花及全國各地廠家購買。

在香港上市的阜豐集團 (0546.HK)原來每年谷氨酸外賣1萬多噸,現在由于緊缺全部自用,而那些向阜豐購買的小型味精廠由于谷氨酸原料不足,導致近期開工率不足50%。

一位券商食品研究員表示,造成谷氨酸短缺主要是來自近兩年關閉了谷氨酸企業。因為味精污染嚴重主要是谷氨酸生產環節,其實谷氨酸到味精的精制工藝污染很 少,主要停掉的是谷氨酸的產能。而另一方面,谷氨酸投入較大,10萬噸產能對應的是4億多元的投入,有些公司 1萬噸產能需要1.5億元投入,小企業投入難度比較大。

上述研究員認為,在蓮花、梅花、阜豐三家上市公司中,蓮花美中不足是谷氨酸的產能比較低,而梅花、阜豐產量比較高,因此味精漲價,對梅花、阜豐的利好大于 蓮花。但由于梅花借殼五洲明珠(21.18,0.81,3.98%) (600873.SH)存在審批風險,而梅花在香港上市,因而最大獲悉者為A股的蓮花。

味精行業人士表示,此次味精上漲的趨勢可能要持續到明年6月,已經可以確定的是明年谷氨酸方面將新增寧夏伊品12萬噸和阜豐在寶雞的7.5萬噸;而味精的 產能將有24萬噸的增加。屆時供需將會達到平衡,味精的價格會稍微回落。

這位味精生產廠家高層表示,味精已經八九年沒有暴利,盡管現在環保治理已不是難題,但由于投資大,收益低,加上幾年設備老化,在過去的三四年中味精行業處 于虧損的邊緣,是一個微利行業,現在價格的漲至12000元是“理性回歸”。

不過,在去年廠家們都沒有預想到今年行情這麼好的情況下,新一波的谷氨酸爭奪戰開始了。據業內人士透露,除寧夏伊品及阜豐外,蓮花、菱花也有意上馬谷氨 酸,一些地方政府也在開始張羅布局,因為“誰掌握了谷氨酸,味精漲價的好處就享受到了。”

价格回归价值? 味精价格两个月上涨五成

2009年11月20日 11:21 来源:中国证券报

  “现在拿货紧张得很哪!现在每吨已经涨到一万二,估计还得涨,至少要到一万五。”莲花 味精(600186)广州办事处的王经理操着一口浓重的河南腔对记者说到。

  从今年年初以来国内味精价格就一直保持在7000元至8000元一吨的价位,但到了9月份以后,味精 价格便一路飙升。根据中国发酵信息网11月17日提供的各地味精出厂价显示,目前国内大部分地区味精价格已经上涨到11700元至12000元。短短两个 多月涨幅超过50%。

  成本推动有限

  味精作为日常调味品,需求变化幅度按常理并不会剧烈波动,那究竟什么原因导致了价格的飞涨?成本推动 还是供应的问题?


  国内目前三大味精生产巨头均已上市,香港上市的阜丰集团(0546.HK)、内地的莲花味精 (600186)以及正准备通过五洲明珠(600873)借壳上市的梅花集团,按照这几家提供的公开财务数据中可以看到,玉米在味精原材料成本中的比重接 近50%。玉米价格今年一季度由于受金融危机的短期影响达到了1400元/吨左右的低位,虽然目前又涨回到1700元/吨左右,但和去年同期相比并没有涨 多少,而去年的味精价格同样徘徊在7000元每吨。显然成本推动并不能解释目前味精的涨价。

  如果不是成本推动型的涨价,还有一个疑问无法解释,就是供货短缺。“如果说有人囤货,也不符合常理, 往年到年前都有经销商囤一些货,但对价格的影响幅度非常小。波动也就几百块而已。”广州一位常年从事调料品批发的谢先生向记者分析道。

  供应减少是真

  在香港上市的阜丰集团股价从年初的0.21港元涨到昨日3.9港元,涨幅接近20倍。在第一上海证券 的一份公司研究报告中称,经过一轮价格竞争之后,到2008年下半年,全国的味精生产企业少了20多家,还剩下20家。目前实际生产能力在20万吨以上的 有阜丰集团(28万吨)、梅花(35万吨)和莲花(22万吨)3家;3家合计产能约占行业总实际产能的50%。并称这三家将是未来行业调整的主导者。

  汇总中国发酵信息网提供的一些信息显示,导致国内味精厂家剧减的主要原因有三点,一是长期的低价竞 争,导致很多小厂难以维持,亏损退出。二是去年的三聚氰胺事件,导致今年国家加大了对食品添加剂企业的监管,很多不合格的小厂被迫关门。今年年初国家工商 部门曾对味精生产企业抽查,结果有50%的产品不合格。三是味精生产污染较重,随着国内环保力度增加,也使很多小厂退出市场。不仅小厂环保压力巨大,梅花 集团霸州15万吨味精生产基地今年5月同样因为环保问题而停产整顿。

  国内味精供应减少,国外环保更严,日本和韩国的生产企业也在最近几年纷纷关闭设在本土的味精厂。主要 的味精生产企业台湾味丹集团由于排污不达标自去年下半年被迫关闭了越南的味精生产企业,迄今尚未复产

  价格回归价值?

  在味精价格没有涨价之前,毛利率一般维持在15%左右。但按目前12000元的市场价,在成本没有大 幅度上涨的情况下,毛利率有望超过60%。以阜丰集团为例,按公司28万吨味精年产能计算,味精价格从7000元涨到12000元,每年的销售收入就将增 加14亿元,新增净利润至少在10亿元以上,阜丰集团2008年全年味精销售额只有20亿元。

  “其实目前的价位并不是历史新高,味精价格在几年之前就是15000元,但由于过去几年很多小厂恶性 低价竞争,才导致了价格一路下滑。如果国内能坚持目前的环保监管力度以及质量监察强度,我估计味精价格维持在12000元以上并不成问题。”一位业内人士 表示,目前味精价格的上涨,属于理性的价值回归。

  中国发酵信息网提供的一份报告则表示,在国际上,日本生产的味精价格一直是国内价格的3倍以上。导致 价格差异的主要原因是国内产品的鱼龙混杂,影响了整体声誉。如果国内能加强监管并提高质量水平,国内价格与国际接轨并不是没有可能。

  实际上味精价格上涨的一幕,在呈味核苷酸二钠上先有表现。作为食品增鲜剂,呈味核苷酸二钠被称为“高 端味精”,在食品工业中一般与味精同时使用。今年以来呈味核苷酸二钠的价格由每吨8万-9万元上涨到现在的17万元。受涨价因素引导,主产呈味核苷酸二钠 的星湖科技(600866)股价由9月份的6.1元一路上涨到现在的12.15元。

  而据星湖科技介绍,环保压力,国内外减产,国内加强监管,同样是呈味核苷酸二钠涨价的原因。(记者 王成盛)

2010年4月1日 星期四

Shares in Aminex receive double blow

Upstream oil and gas group Aminex (AEX) slashed its full-year losses in 2009, but failed to stave off a drop in revenues as lower oil and gas prices played havoc.

The UK-listed company posted a net loss of $2.9 million for the 12 months ended 31 December, considerably lower than the $9.7 million seen in the previous year.

However, revenue tumbled by 23% to $7.8 million, hurt by much lower average oil and gas prices, despite higher levels of production.

The results emerge on the same day the company reported disappointing results for its jointly owned Likonde-1 exploration well in Tanzania.

The well, which is operated by joint partnerTullow Oil(TLW), was drilled to depth of 3,647 metres, but failed to encounter a flowing, commercial discovery.

At midday, shares in the AIM-listed firm were down over 13% at 12.25p.

Production up, prices down

Gas production increased by 56% to 489,000 million cubic feet in 2009, driven by a full year's production from the Sunny Ernst-2 well at Alta Loma, the group said.

Production from Sunny Ernst-2 also helped increase oil production by 17% to 42,000 barrels of oil.

However, average oil and gas prices were markedly lower with the average oil price fetching just $55.25 a barrel, compared to $86.79 a barrel in 2008 and while the average gas price was just $3.91 versus $7.75 the previous year.

At the same time, Aminex, which holds concessions in the US, Pakistan, India, Tunisia, Africa and North Korea, upped its exploration costs by $5 million to cover costs at its renowned Likonde-1 well in Tanzania and the acquisition of an additional 10% interest in the Nyuni licence and ongoing exploration costs on the West Songo-Songo licence.

At the close of the year, the group's assets amounted to $14.2 million, comprising of $1.7 million in cash balances and $2.6 million in trade and other receivables.

The increase in cash balance for the year, up from 2008's more subdued £4.1 million, reflects the $15.3 million raised by Aminex through two share placings last summer and an open offer.
See what iBall TV made of the firm when it teamed up with Edmond Jackson to pick Aminex as one of his stocks to watch for 2010.

Well findings disappoint
It was Aminex's interest in thejointly owned Likonde-1 exploration well in Tanzania that was also rocking its shares today.

Aminex, which announced a farm-out of a 12.5% interest in the well to Solo Oil (SOLO) in Novemver 2009, said the well is the first of two commitment wells to be drilled in the Ruvama Basin.

Despite the disappointing results, chairman Brian Hall maintained that the Likonde-1 well "potentially opens up a new oil play in Tanzania", and said it provided important pointers and great encouragement for the continuing exploration programme.

The second well in the programme is likely to be spudded within 12 months.

Craig Howie, analyst at Astaire Securities, commented: "While Likonde-1 has failed to discover commercial quantities of hydrocarbons, this was the partners' first well in a frontier basin and important data has been acquired through drilling.

"A second well remains firmly on the agenda and the Ruvuma project is already known to contain other drillable prospects of equivalent size including Mikindani. Ruvuma forms part of a much wider portfolio for Aminex and, given our already aggressive view on risk, we reiterate our total NAV estimate of 26p/share."

Looking ahead, Aminex said its Shoats Creek project in the USA is gathering momentum and it is looking to charge ahead with its Korean Peninsula operations.

"We have several wells to drill in 2010 and have a busy year ahead. The current year promises to be very active with potential upside for the Aminex group," Hall concluded.

AEX final 2009

AEX – Financial Report

Current assets

31 December 2009
US$14.3 million,
comprising cash balances of US$11.7 million (2008: US$4.1 million)
trade and other receivables of US$2.6 million (2008: US$3.9 million).
The increase in the cash balance reflects funds of US$15.3 million (after transaction expenses) raised by Aminex in July and August through two share placings and an open offer.

Current liabilities
of US$2.7 million( - 50% 2008).
Non-current liabilities
+ US$269,000 to US$1.64 million
due to an increase in the decommissioning provision.

OPERATIONS REPORT
TANZANIA - Ruvuma PSA
Finished drilling and encountered thick sands with hydrocarbon. the well has intersected two sandstone intervals of over 250 metres (820 feet) combined thickness with evidence of residual oil and gas. The well, which will now be plugged and abandoned, is the first of a 2-well programme within the prospective Ruvuma Delta. The encouraging results will be followed up with detailed technical work prior to selecting the next drilling location. The timing of future programme will be disclosed to shareholders when available.
Likonde is only one of several prospects and leads located along a prominent hinge中樞 line in the Ruvuma Basin.

Solo has an option during the next 6 months to become a full party to the Ruvuma PSA and, in this case, the Aminex interest will reduce to 37.5%.

Operator Tullow Oil was granted a one year extension to the Initial Exploration Period under the PSA by the Tanzanian Government. The Likonde-1 well is the first of two commitment wells to be drilled in the Initial Period and the second well is likely to be spudded within 12 months.
TANZANIA - Nyuni PSA and Kiliwani North Appraisal Licence

Following successful testing of the Kiliwani North-1 gas discovery in 2008 (40 MMcfd from Lower Cretaceous sandstones), Analysis confirmed the excellent production characteristics of the Neocomian reservoir.

Acquisition of 48 line KM seismic over Kiliwani North in July 2009. made a strong contribution to our understanding of the Kiliwani North structure.

Songas Plant which is only 3kms from the Kiliwani North-1 wellhead (for deliver production) , this remains the obvious choice. However, in order to be able to access the Songas pipeline system which delivers gas from the Songo-Songo gas field to market in Dar es Salaam, the gas handling plant at Songo-Songo needs to be expanded and there has been a planning consent deadlock for some time between the plant operator and the government authorities. Aminex now believes that a positive outcome will soon be achieved in near time and that the expansion of both plant and pipeline will be more than adequate for Nyuni's needs. Aminex also believes that the expanding gas market in Dar es Salaam will be more than capable of accepting the additional production.

The Nyuni Licence is held as an exploration area under the second extension of the PSA with a further work programme commitment. Previously acquired seismic has now been reprocessed and reinterpreted, then integrated with the new seismic acquired over Songo-Songo Island. The new mapping, which has been independently assessed, has considerably upgraded the sizes of the main prospects

Contingent 視條件而定的 resources at Kiliwani North and prospective resources on the exploration prospects have been evaluated by Isis Petroleum Consultants Pty. Ltd. ("Isis") and their conclusions are tabulated below. It should be noted that Isis is attributing some "contingent" as well as "prospective" resources to the Nyuni prospects which lie close to Nyuni Island. This results from their review of the Nyuni-1 well drilled by Aminex and partners at Nyuni Island in 2003/4. Nyuni-1 recorded several gas-bearing intervals in Aptian/Albian sands but operational difficulties at the time meant that these were never tested and the well was subsequently suspended, although not plugged and abandoned in case re-entry was ever required. Isis therefore attributes the same resource category to these Nyuni-1 reservoirs as to the successfully-tested discovery at Kiliwani North.

Unexplored prospects at Fanjove Island, Songo-Songo South and elsewhere on the licence have not yet been fully evaluated. However Aminex initially concludes that the prospect in and around Nyuni Island offer the best potential for further exploration drilling.

In September 2009, Aminex reached an agreement with East Africa Exploration Limited (EAX) under which EAX assigned its 10% interest in the Nyuni PSA,


TANZANIA - West Songo-Songo

The PSA area is located between the Songo-Songo Gas Field, eastern boundaries is contiguous 鄰接 with the Nyuni PSA. In terms of the petroleum system, lies within the Rufiji Basin, a proven producing trend containing the Songo-Songo Gas Field, and the Kiliwani North discovery. The operator Key Petroleum Ltd. ("Key") has completed an interpretation of all existing seismic on the block and identified a number of structural prospects and leads at Lower Cretaceous Neocomian level where the reservoir target would be the Neocomian sandstones, the main producing reservoir at the Songo-Songo Field and Kiliwani North. Additional potential involving stratigraphic trapping has been identified at higher levels in the Cretaceous and Tertiary.
In order to evaluate further the structural and stratigraphic definition of the existing prospects and leads, Key plans to reprocess the existing seismic over these areas. Within the Initial Exploration Period of the PSA there is an obligation to drill one firm well in the first three years.
Aminex holds a 50% interest in the licence.

EGYPT
Gulf of Suez - West Esh el Mellaha-2 PSC
The West Esh el Mellaha-2 (WEEM-2) Licence is a large onshore block in the Eastern Desert of Egypt, geologically positioned on the southwest margins of the Gulf of Suez Basin, a prolific oil producing basin with multiple reservoirs, including several giant fields.

In 2009, the third obligation well for the Initial Exploration Period was drilled on the South Malak Prospect. South Malak-1 was spudded in August 2009 and was drilled to a total depth of 11,200 feet, terminating in Basement rocks. Strong gas shows were recorded while drilling over a 900 foot interval from 10,300ft to target depth. Oil shows were also recorded in an Eocene Dolomite sequence and in sandstones of the Upper Cretaceous Matulla Formation. An open-hole test in the section of granite 花崗岩 wash overlying basement and the fractured basement was not successful, most probably due to contamination from the casing cementing operation. High quality oil (38°API gravity) was recovered from the Matulla Sandstone after hydraulic fracturing and placing the well on artificial lift with a submersible pump. Minor amounts of similar quality oil were also recovered from the Eocene Dolomite interval, although hydraulic 水壓的 fracturing 斷裂 was not successful. At year end the testing operation continued on the Matulla interval and the well is currently producing limited quantities of oil.

WEEM-2 lies in an oil-prone but highly faulted 缺陷 area. The very encouraging shows from South Malak-1, which did not even intersect the Nubian sandstones, being the best producing formation in the area, has provided the joint venture with sufficient encouragement to extend the licence into a second period ending September 2012 and commit to drill two further exploration wells.

In the case of establishing commercial production, WEEM-2 is located within a few kilometres of the Esh el Mellaha oil production facilities with an export pipeline to the coast.

Aminex has a 10% interest in the PSC with a free carry continuing until first production under a Development Lease.

USA
Shoats Creek Field, Louisiana
a drilling programme is now under way with one successful well (Olympia Minerals-1 or "OM-1") which has been drilled to a total vertical depth of 9,508 feet and encountered multiple zones in the Cockfield sands, very closely matching the targets identified from interpretation of the 3D seismic. The drilling rig has now been demobilised and a testing unit has been brought in to test several Cockfield sands in the shallower area (less than 10,000 feet).

At the end of March 2010, Aminex formally granted an option, in return for a non-refundable fee of $100,000, to Ninox Pty. Petroleum Ltd., a privately-owned company, giving it a 90 day option to enter into a farm-in agreement which would involve Ninox funding the cost of either 2 deep wells and 1 shallow or alternatively 1 deep well and 4 shallow wells in order to earn a 50% interest in the property. Discussions are also in progress to unitise part of Aminex's deep rights at Shoats Creek with the deep rights held by a neighbouring company. This would entail drilling a joint exploration well to test the deep (below 10,000 feet) Wilcox sands recognised on 3D seismic and actually encountered in a well drilled on the property more than 20 years ago by a previous operator. The precise timing and location of the next well in the drilling programme may depend on the results of these negotiations.

Aminex has a 100% working interest in this property which covers approximately 1,500 acres. Existing production is light crude oil which sells at a premium to market due its high quality and proximity to market. Oil and gas pipelines cross this property.

Alta Loma Field, Texas

Producing from Upper Andrau sands since 2008, production from which has now declined 墮落. Above the Upper Andrau lies a thick section of gas logged when the well was drilled in a formation known as the "S" Sand. This formation offers the possibility of much more significant production than is yielded by the Upper Andrau but commingling 混合 or dual completion is considered risky. However, no firm timetable has yet been fixed for plugging off the Upper Andrau and to carry out a completion in the "S" Sand. Sunny Ernst-3 is now likely to be drilled in the second half of 2010, probably during the summer.

Sunny Ernst-1 has been plugged and abandoned.
Aminex has a 37.5% working interest and El Paso is operator.

Somerset Field, Texas
Production continues from several hundred stripper wells and total production averages 95 bbls/oil per day. Somerset produces oil of a lower quality than WTI and suffers a discount. Annual production decline is negligible.

Aminex has a 100% working interest and is field operator.

South Weslaco, Texas
South Weslaco produces gas and Aminex has participated in several wells. Continuous drilling is required in order to hold additional prospects but the net result has been that revenues have tended to be ploughed back into relatively short life wells. Given a weaker overall market for gas, Aminex is not currently planning to participate in any further drilling on South Weslaco but will continue to enjoy production from the existing wells it has drilled.

Aminex has a 25% interest in this property which is operated by Kaler Energy.
US Reserves summary

NORTH KOREA

the Korea Oil Industry Ministry together with a state oil company, Korea Oil Exploration Company, now has the authority to negotiate.

Aminex is currently negotiating a new and updated PSC with both these bodies for an offshore area of approximately 58,000 square kilometres and known as The East Korea Bay Basin (EKBB), covering both shallow and deep water. If negotiations are successfully completed, it is anticipated that this PSC will be signed in the first half of 2010. Aminex believes that the EKBB is very prospective for oil and gas.

To assist with this project Aminex has introduced a new foreign partner, Singapore-based Chosun Energy Pte Ltd (“Chosun”), which will provide finance for the initial stages and a regional base in Singapore. Chosun is acquiring 50% of our special purpose vehicle Korex Ltd. in return for a consideration of $500,000 and in addition will cover the first $500,000 of licence costs. We are pleased to welcome Chosun and believe its experienced management team will make a strong contribution to this project going forward.

STRATEGY AND PROSPECTS
Although not a commercial discovery, we are very encouraged by the results of the Likonde-1 well in the Ruvuma Basin and the new oil play which it potentially could open up in southern Tanzania.

At Nyuni in Tanzania we are now making progress with the Kiliwani North discovery as well as identifying much more clearly the potential of the larger, outlying prospects which we intend to drill within a year from now.

After much groundwork we have finally commenced drilling at Shoats Creek in the USA and expect this project, based on new 3D seismic, will continue to gather momentum. On the Korean peninsula we are now looking to move ahead and expect progress in the current year.

We have several wells to drill in 2010 and have a busy year ahead. The current year promises to be very active with potential upside for the Aminex group.

關於我自己

This blog is above all important news, interesting investment topic and potential shares in HK and UK. This year, I will specificlly looking for a multi bagger shares, this ia challenge a challenge that the young ones have to takes some time!

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